Alveolar echinococcosis: from a deadly disease to a well-controlled infection. Relative survival and economic analysis in Switzerland over the last 35 years.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Alveolar echinococcosis (AE) is a serious liver disease. The aim of this study was to explore the long-term prognosis of AE patients, the burden of this disease in Switzerland and the cost-effectiveness of treatment. METHODS: Relative survival analysis was undertaken using a national database with 329 patient records. 155 representative cases had sufficient details regarding treatment costs and patient outcome to estimate the financial implications and treatment costs of AE. RESULTS: For an average 54-year-old patient diagnosed with AE in 1970 the life expectancy was estimated to be reduced by 18.2 and 21.3 years for men and women, respectively. By 2005 this was reduced to approximately 3.5 and 2.6 years, respectively. Patients undergoing radical surgery had a better outcome, whereas the older patients had a poorer prognosis than the younger patients. Costs amount to approximately Euro108,762 per patient. Assuming the improved life expectancy of AE patients is due to modern treatment the cost per disability-adjusted life years (DALY) saved is approximately Euro6,032. CONCLUSIONS: Current treatments have substantially improved the prognosis of AE patients compared to the 1970s. The cost per DALY saved is low compared to the average national annual income. Hence, AE treatment is highly cost-effective in Switzerland.

Alveolar echinococcosis: from a deadly disease to a well-controlled infection. Relative survival and economic analysis in Switzerland over the last 35 years

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Alveolar echinococcosis (AE) is a serious liver disease. The aim of this study was to explore the long-term prognosis of AE patients, the burden of this disease in Switzerland and the cost-effectiveness of treatment. METHODS: Relative survival analysis was undertaken using a national database with 329 patient records. 155 representative cases had sufficient details regarding treatment costs and patient outcome to estimate the financial implications and treatment costs of AE. RESULTS: For an average 54-year-old patient diagnosed with AE in 1970 the life expectancy was estimated to be reduced by 18.2 and 21.3 years for men and women, respectively. By 2005 this was reduced to approximately 3.5 and 2.6 years, respectively. Patients undergoing radical surgery had a better outcome, whereas the older patients had a poorer prognosis than the younger patients. Costs amount to approximately Euro108,762 per patient. Assuming the improved life expectancy of AE patients is due to modern treatment the cost per disability-adjusted life years (DALY) saved is approximately Euro6,032. CONCLUSIONS: Current treatments have substantially improved the prognosis of AE patients compared to the 1970s. The cost per DALY saved is low compared to the average national annual income. Hence, AE treatment is highly cost-effective in Switzerland.

Survival analysis of longevity in siblings

Do siblings of centenarians tend to have longer life spans? To answer this question, life spans of 184 siblings for 42 centenarians have been evaluated. Two important questions have been addressed in analyzing the sibling data. First, a standard needs to be established, to which the life spans of 184 siblings are compared. In this report, an external reference population is constructed from the U.S. life tables. Its estimated mortality rates are treated as baseline hazards from which the relative mortality of the siblings are estimated. Second, the standard survival models which assume independent observations are invalid when correlation within family exists, underestimating the true variance. Methods that allow correlations are illustrated by three different methods. First, the cumulative relative excess mortality between siblings and their comparison group is calculated and used as an effective graphic tool, along with the Product Limit estimator of the survival function. The variance estimator of the cumulative relative excess mortality is adjusted for the potential within family correlation using Taylor linearization approach. Second, approaches that adjust for the inflated variance are examined. They are adjusted one-sample log-rank test using design effect originally proposed by Rao and Scott in the correlated binomial or Poisson distribution setting and the robust variance estimator derived from the log-likelihood function of a multiplicative model. Nether of these two approaches provide correlation estimate within families, but the comparison with the comparison with the standard remains valid under dependence. Last, using the frailty model concept, the multiplicative model, where the baseline hazards are known, is extended by adding a random frailty term that is based on the positive stable or the gamma distribution. Comparisons between the two frailty distributions are performed by simulation. Based on the results from various approaches, it is concluded that the siblings of centenarians had significant lower mortality rates as compared to their cohorts. The frailty models also indicate significant correlations between the life spans of the siblings. ^

Demographic analysis of Certified Industrial Hygienists (CIH) with the use of survival analysis techniques

Objective. The goal of this study is to characterize the current workforce of CIHs, the lengths of professional practice careers of the past and current CIHs.^ Methods. This is a secondary data analysis of data compiled from all of the nearly 50 annual roster listings of the American Board of Industrial Hygiene (ABIH) for Certified Industrial Hygienists active in each year since 1960. Survival analysis was performed as a technique to measure the primary outcome of interest. The technique which was involved in this study was the Kaplan-Meier method for estimating the survival function.^ Study subjects: The population to be studied is all Certified Industrial Hygienists (CIHs). A CIH is defined by the ABIH as an individual who has achieved the minimum requirements for education, working experience and through examination, has demonstrated a minimum level of knowledge and competency in the prevention of occupational illnesses. ^ Results. A Cox-proportional hazards model analysis was performed by different start-time cohorts of CIHs. In this model we chose cohort 1 as the reference cohort. The estimated relative risk of the event (defined as retirement, or absent from 5 consecutive years of listing) occurred for CIHs for cohorts 2,3,4,5 relative to cohort 1 is 0.385, 0.214, 0.234, 0.299 relatively. The result show that cohort 2 (CIHs issued from 1970-1980) has the lowest hazard ratio which indicates the lowest retirement rate.^ Conclusion. The manpower of CIHs (still actively practicing up to the end of 2009) increased tremendously starting in 1980 and grew into a plateau in recent decades. This indicates that the supply and demand of the profession may have reached equilibrium. More demographic information and variables are needed to actually predict the future number of CIHs needed. ^

Residuals for log-Burr XII regression models in survival analysis

In this paper, we compare three residuals to assess departures from the error assumptions as well as to detect outlying observations in log-Burr XII regression models with censored observations. These residuals can also be used for the log-logistic regression model, which is a special case of the log-Burr XII regression model. For different parameter settings, sample sizes and censoring percentages, various simulation studies are performed and the empirical distribution of each residual is displayed and compared with the standard normal distribution. These studies suggest that the residual analysis usually performed in normal linear regression models can be straightforwardly extended to the modified martingale-type residual in log-Burr XII regression models with censored data.

Long-term survival of women with breast cancer in New South Wales

Several long-term studies of breast cancer survival have shown continued excess mortality from breast cancer up to 20-40 years following treatment. The purpose of this report was to investigate temporal trends in long-term survival from breast cancer in all New South Wales (NSW) women. Breast cancer cases incident in 1972-1996 (54,228) were derived from the NSW Central Cancer Registry a population-based registry which began in 1972. All cases of breast cancer not known to be dead were matched against death records. The expected survival for NSW women was derived from published annual life tables. Relative survival analysis compared the survival of cancer cases with the age, sex and period matched mortality of the total population. Cases were considered alive at the end of 1996, except when known to be dead. Proportional hazards regression was employed to model survival on age, period and degree of spread at diagnosis. Survival at 5, 10, 15, 20 and 25 years of follow-up was 76 per cent, 65 per cent, 60 per cent, 57 per cent and 56 per cent. The annual hazard rate for excess mortality was 4.3 per cent in year 1, maximal at 6.5 per cent in year 3, declining to 4.7 per cent in year 5, 2.7 per cent in year 10, 1.4 per cent in year 15, 1.0 per cent for years 16-20, and 0.4 per cent for years 20-25 of follow-up. Relative survival was highest in 40-49 year-olds. Cases diagnosed most recently (1992-1996) had the highest survival, compared with cases diagnosed in previous periods. Five-year survival improved over time, especially from the late 1980s for women in the screening age group (50-69 years). Survival was highest for those with localised cancer at diagnosis: 88.4 per cent, 79.1 per cent, 74.6 per cent, 72.7 per cent and 72.8 per cent at 5, 10, 15, 20 and 25 years follow-up (excluding those aged greater than or equal to 70 years). There was no significant difference between the survival of the breast cancer cases and the general population at 20-25 years follow-up. Degree of spread was less predictive of survival 5-20 years after diagnosis, compared with 0-5 years after diagnosis, and was not significant at 20-25 years of follow-up. Relative survival from breast cancer in NSW women continues to decrease to 25 years after diagnosis, but there is little excess mortality after 15 years follow-up, especially for those with localised cancer at diagnosis, and the minimal excess mortality at 20-25 years of follow-up is not statistically significant. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prognostic factors and survival analysis in a sample of oral squamous cell carcinoma patients

Objectives. The aims of this report were to describe the 5-year overall survival (OS) in a group of oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC) patients and to investigate the effects of age, gender, anatomic localization, tumor evolution time, smoking and alcohol intake, nodal status, tumoral recurrences, histologic classification, p53 and p63 immunoexpression, human papillomavirus DNA presence, and treatment on the prognostic outcome. Study design. Survival curves were generated using Kaplan-Meier method, and univariate and multivariate analyses were made using the log rank test and Cox regression, respectively. Results. The 5-year OS was 28.6%, and the univariate analysis showed significant results for p53 and p63 immunoexpression, age, and anatomic localization. The Cox regression demonstrated poor OS for tumors with p53 immunoexpression and for patients aged over 60 years. There were also significant differences in survival depending on the anatomic localizations. Conclusion. These results highlight the influence of p53 immunoexpression, age, and anatomic localization in OSCC evolution. (Oral Surg Oral Med Oral Pathol Oral Radiol Endod 2008; 106: 685-95)

Occult Axillary Lymph Node Metastases in Breast Cancer Do Matter: Results of 10-Year Survival Analysis

Axillary lymph node status is one of the most powerful prognostic factors for patients with breast cancer and is often critical in stratifying patients into adjuvant treatment regimens. In 203 apparently node-negative cases of breast cancer, a combination of immunohistochemical staining and step-sectioning identified occult metastases in 25% of cases. Ten-year follow-up information is available for these patients. Histologic features of the primary tumor and immunohistochemical staining for estrogen receptor, progesterone receptor, Her-2, and p53 were also evaluated. With multivariate analysis, both occult metastases and higher histologic grade of the primary tumor were independent predictors of disease-free survival. Histologic grade was the only significant independent predictor of overall survival. Estrogen receptor, progesterone receptor, Her-2, and p53 status did not predict the presence of metastases or survival when all tumor types were considered together. Metastases >0.5 mm significantly predicted a poorer disease-free survival when invasive ductal carcinomas were considered alone. Histologic grade was significantly associated with disease-free survival in the premenopausal and perimenopausal patients but not in the postmenopausal patients. The presence of occult metastases approached significance for overall survival in the premenopausal and perimenopausal patients but not in the postmenopausal patients.

Survival Analysis Employed in Predicting Corporate Failure: A Forecasting Model Proposal

In face of the current economic and financial environment, predicting corporate bankruptcy is arguably a phenomenon of increasing interest to investors, creditors, borrowing firms, and governments alike. Within the strand of literature focused on bankruptcy forecasting we can find diverse types of research employing a wide variety of techniques, but only a few researchers have used survival analysis for the examination of this issue. We propose a model for the prediction of corporate bankruptcy based on survival analysis, a technique which stands on its own merits. In this research, the hazard rate is the probability of ‘‘bankruptcy’’ as of time t, conditional upon having survived until time t. Many hazard models are applied in a context where the running of time naturally affects the hazard rate. The model employed in this paper uses the time of survival or the hazard risk as dependent variable, considering the unsuccessful companies as censured observations.

Survival analysis: a tool in the study of post-harvest diseases in peaches

Survival analysis is applied when the time until the occurrence of an event is of interest. Such data are routinely collected in plant diseases, although applications of the method are uncommon. The objective of this study was to use two studies on post-harvest diseases of peaches, considering two harvests together and the existence of random effect shared by fruits of a same tree, in order to describe the main techniques in survival analysis. The nonparametric Kaplan-Meier method, the log-rank test and the semi-parametric Cox's proportional hazards model were used to estimate the effect of cultivars and the number of days after full bloom on the survival to the brown rot symptom and the instantaneous risk of expressing it in two consecutive harvests. The joint analysis with baseline effect, varying between harvests, and the confirmation of the tree effect as a grouping factor with random effect were appropriate to interpret the phenomenon (disease) evaluated and can be important tools to replace or complement the conventional analysis, respecting the nature of the variable and the phenomenon.

Liver morphology with emphasis on bile ducts changes and survival analysis in mice submitted to multiple Schistosoma mansoni infections and chemotherapy

In an attempt to be as close as possible to the infected and treated patients of the endemic areas of schistosomiasis (S. mansoni) and in order to achieve a long period of follow-up, mice were repeatedly infected with a low number of cercariae. Survival data and histological variables such as schistosomal granuloma, portal changes, hepatocellular necrosis, hepatocellular regeneration, schistosomotic pigment, periductal fibrosis and chiefly bile ducts changes were analysed in the infected treated and non treated mice. Oxamniquine chemotherapy in repeatedly infected mice prolonged survival significantly when compared to non-treated animals (chi-square 9.24, p = 0.0024), thus confirming previous results with a similar experimental model but with a shorter term follow-up. Furthermore, mortality decreased rapidly after treatment suggesting an abrupt reduction in the severity of hepatic lesions. A morphological and immunohistochemical study of the liver was carried out. Portal fibrosis, with a pattern resembling human Symmers fibrosis was present at a late phase in the infected animals. Bile duct lesions were quite close to those described in human Mansonian schistosomiasis. Schistosomal antigen was observed in one isolated altered bile duct cell. The pathogenesis of the bile duct changes and its relation to the parasite infection and/or their antigens are discussed.

Applications of the bootstrap to survival analysis

En este trabajo se revisan algunas de las aplicaciones clásicas del bootstrap al análisis de la supervivencia. Se consideran en primer lugar el estimador bootstrap de la varianza y el estimador de la mediana corregido para el sesgo del estimador de Kaplan-Meier de la función de supervivencia. A continuación se consideran algunos aspectos mas recientes, tales como métodos para construir bandas de confianza para el estimador de la funcidn de supervivencia y contrastes aproximados para la comparación de funciones de supervivencia. En ambas situaciones el bootstrap resulta de gran utilidad para la aproximación de 10s valores críticos necesarios.

Factors favoring a degradation or an improvement in activities of daily living (ADL) performance among nursing home (NH) residents: A survival analysis.

Different factors influence ADL performance among nursing home (NH) residents in long term care. The aim was to investigate which factors were associated with a significant change of ADL performance in NH residents, and whether or not these factors were gender-specific. The design was a survival analysis. The 10,199 participants resided in ninety Swiss NHs. Their ADL performance had been assessed by the Resident Assessment Instrument Minimum Data Set (RAI-MDS) in the period from 1997 to 2007. Relevant change in ADL performance was defined as 2 levels of change on the ADL scale between two successive assessments. The occurrence of either an improvement or a degradation of the ADL status) was analyzed using the Cox proportional hazard model. The analysis included a total of 10,199 NH residents. Each resident received between 2 and 23 assessments. Poor balance, incontinence, impaired cognition, a low BMI, impaired vision, no daily contact with proxies, impaired hearing and the presence of depression were, by hierarchical order, significant risk factors for NH residents to experience a degradation of ADL performance. Residents, who were incontinent, cognitively impaired or had a high BMI were significantly less likely to improve their ADL abilities. Male residents with cancer were prone to see their ADL improve. The year of NH entry was significantly associated with either degradation or improvement of ADL performance. Measures aiming at improving balance and continence, promoting physical activity, providing appropriate nourishment and cognitive enhancement are important for ADL performance in NH residents.

Univariate Parametric Survival Analysis using GS-distributions

The GS-distribution is a family of distributions that provide an accurate representation of any unimodal univariate continuous distribution. In this contribution we explore the utility of this family as a general model in survival analysis. We show that the survival function based on the GS-distribution is able to provide a model for univariate survival data and that appropriate estimates can be obtained. We develop some hypotheses tests that can be used for checking the underlying survival model and for comparing the survival of different groups.