Interrupting malaria transmission: quantifying the impact of interventions in regions of low to moderate transmission

Malaria has been eliminated from over 40 countries with an additional 39 currently planning for, or committed to, elimination. Information on the likely impact of available interventions, and the required time, is urgently needed to help plan resource allocation. Mathematical modelling has been used to investigate the impact of various interventions; the strength of the conclusions is boosted when several models with differing formulation produce similar data. Here we predict by using an individual-based stochastic simulation model of seasonal Plasmodium falciparum transmission that transmission can be interrupted and parasite reintroductions controlled in villages of 1,000 individuals where the entomological inoculation rate is <7 infectious bites per person per year using chemotherapy and bed net strategies. Above this transmission intensity bed nets and symptomatic treatment alone were not sufficient to interrupt transmission and control the importation of malaria for at least 150 days. Our model results suggest that 1) stochastic events impact the likelihood of successfully interrupting transmission with large variability in the times required, 2) the relative reduction in morbidity caused by the interventions were age-group specific, changing over time, and 3) the post-intervention changes in morbidity were larger than the corresponding impact on transmission. These results generally agree with the conclusions from previously published models. However the model also predicted changes in parasite population structure as a result of improved treatment of symptomatic individuals; the survival probability of introduced parasites reduced leading to an increase in the prevalence of sub-patent infections in semi-immune individuals. This novel finding requires further investigation in the field because, if confirmed, such a change would have a negative impact on attempts to eliminate the disease from areas of moderate transmission.

Developing Jungle Perch Fingerling Production to Improve Fishing Opportunities

This project has for the first time demonstrated the feasibility of hatchery production of jungle perch fingerlings. The research on jungle perch production has enabled a hatchery production manual with accompanying videos to be produced. This has given private commercial hatcheries the information needed to produce jungle perch fingerlings. Several hatcheries have already indicated an interest in producing jungle perch and will be assisted to do so in 2016. Currently jungle perch are not a permitted stocking species, so cannot be sold to fish stocking groups. However, hatcheries will be able to sell fingerlings to the aquarium trade or supply grow out facilities that could produce jungle perch for human consumption. Should jungle perch become a permitted species for stocking, this will provide hatcheries with a major new product option to sell to fish stocking groups. It would also benefit anglers by providing another iconic species for impoundment stocking programs. This could have flow-on benefits to regional economies through angler tourism. Should the pilot reintroductions of jungle perch into streams result in self-sustaining jungle perch populations, then there will be three restored jungle perch populations close to major population centres. This will create a new opportunity for anglers not normally able to target jungle perch. Since the majority of anglers who target jungle perch are catch and release fishers, angling is expected to have minimal impact on recovery of the populations. This project led to the development of a hatchery manual for jungle perch production and to a summary brochure. In late 2014 and in 2015 researchers were able to make the first ever releases of jungle perch fingerlings back into rivers and streams within their historical range.

Behavioural and physiological responses to predators of captive-bred Arctic charr: significance of genetics, learning and ontogeny

Predation forms one of the main selective forces in nature and in a vast number of prey species the behavioural responses form the main way to avoid predation. World wide numerous captive breeding programs are used to produce fish and other animal species for conservational reintroductions. However, rearing animals in the absence of predators in captivity has been shown to weaken their predator avoidance skills and lead to behavioural divergence between wild and captive-bred populations. In my thesis I studied the effects of predator odour exposures on antipredator behavioural and physiological responses of captive reared Saimaa Arctic charr. This charr population is the most endangered fish population in Finland and a sample of the remaining population has been taken to captive breeding and used for an extensive reintroduction program. Lowered responsiveness to predators is probably one of the major reasons for the poor survival probability of the charr after release into the wild. The main aims of my thesis were to explore the reasons for behavioural phenotypic variation in this charr population and whether naïve charr young could be trained to recognise their natural predators. The predator species in my thesis were burbot (Lota lota) and pikeperch (Sander lucioperca). In my thesis I showed that the captive-bred charr responded to chemical cues from burbot and pikeperch, but the magnitude of responses was linked to the predator species. The burbot odour increased the spatial odour avoidance of the charr young. On the other hand, in the pikeperch treatment charr reduced their relative swimming activity and tended to show more freezing behaviour relative to the burbot treatment. It seems evident that these different responses are related to the different hunting tactics of predator species. Furthermore, I detected wide between-family differences in antipredator responsiveness (i.e. inherited variation in antipredator behaviours) in this captive stock. Detected differences were greater in the response towards burbot than towards pikeperch. These results, in addition to predator-specific antipredator responses, suggest that there is a clear inherited component in antipredator responsiveness in Saimaa charr population and that the detected inherited differences could explain a part of the behavioural phenotypic variation in this population. In my thesis I also found out that both social learning and direct exposure to live predators enhance the antipredator responsiveness of charr young. In addition, I obtained indications that predator odour exposures (i.e. life-skills training) in alevin and fry stages can fine-tune the innate antipredator responsiveness of charr. Thus, all these methods have the potential to enhance the innate antipredator responsiveness of naïve charr young, possibly also improving the post-release survival of these trained individuals in the wild. However, the next logical phase would be to carry out large scale survival studies in the wild to test this hypothesis. Finally, the results of my thesis emphasize that possible long-term life-skills training methods should take into account not only the behavioural but also the physiological effects of training.

Restrospective genetic monitoring of the threatened Yellow marsh saxifrage (Saxifraga hirculus) reveals genetic erosion but provides valuable information for conservation strategies

Aim: Retrospective genetic monitoring, comparing genetic diversity of extant populations with historical samples, can provide valuable and often unique insights into evolutionary processes informing conservation strategies. The Yellow marsh saxifrage (Saxifraga hirculus) is listed as ‘critically endangered’ in Ireland with only two extant populations. We quantified genetic changes over time and identified genotypes in extant populations that could be used as founders for reintroductions to sites where the species is extinct.

Location: Ireland.

Methods: Samples were obtained from both locations where the species is currently found, including the most threatened site at the Garron Plateau, Co. Antrim, which held only 13 individuals during 2011. Herbarium samples covering the period from 1886 to 1957 were obtained including plants from the same area as the most threatened population, as well as three extinct populations. In total, 422 individuals (319 present-day and 103 historical) were genotyped at six microsatellite loci. Species distribution modelling was used to identify areas of potentially suitable habitat for reintroductions.

Results: Level of phenotypic diversity within the most threatened population was significantly lower in the present-day compared with historical samples but levels of observed heterozygosity and number of alleles, whilst reduced, did not differ significantly. However, Bayesian clustering analysis suggested gradual lineage replacement over time. All three measures of genetic diversity were generally lower at the most threatened population compared with the more substantial extant populations in Co. Mayo. Species distribution modelling suggested that habitat at one site where the species is extinct may be suitable for reintroduction.

Main conclusions: The dominant genetic lineage in the most threatened population is rare elsewhere; thus, care needs to be taken when formulating any potential reintroduction programme. Our findings highlight both the need for genetic monitoring of threatened populations, but also for its swift implementation before levels of diversity become critically low.

The paradox of invasion: Reeves’ muntjac deer invade the British Isles from a limited number of founding females

High levels of genetic diversity and high propagule pressure are favoured by conservation biologists as the basis for successful reintroductions and ensuring the persistence of populations. However, invasion ecologists recognize the ‘paradox of invasion’, as successful species introductions may often be characterized by limited numbers of individuals and associated genetic bottlenecks. In the present study, we used a combination of high-resolution nuclear and mitochondrial genetic markers to investigate the invasion history of Reeves' muntjac deer in the British Isles. This invasion has caused severe economic and ecological damage, with secondary spread currently a concern throughout Europe and potentially globally. Microsatellite analysis based on eight loci grouped all 176 introduced individuals studied from across the species' range in the UK into one genetic cluster, and seven mitochondrial D-loop haplotypes were recovered, two of which were present at very low frequency and were related to more common haplotypes. Our results indicate that the entire invasion can be traced to a single founding event involving a low number of females. These findings highlight the fact that even small releases of species may, if ignored, result in irreversible and costly invasion, regardless of initial genetic diversity or continual genetic influx.

Conserving marginal populations of the foodplant (Impatiens noli-tangere) of an endangered moth (Eustroma reticulatum) in a changing climate

Impatiens noli-tangere is scarce in the UK and probably only native to the Lake District and Wales. It is the sole food plant for the endangered moth Eustroma reticulattum. Significant annual fluctuations in the size of I. noli-tangere populations endanger the continued presence of E. reticulatum in the UK. In this study, variation in population size was monitored across native populations of L noli-tangere in the English Lake District and Wales. In 1998, there was a crash in the population size of all metapopulations in the Lake District but not of those found in Wales. A molecular survey of the genetic affinities of samples in 1999 from both regions and a reference population from Switzerland was performed using AFLP and ISSR analyses. The consensus UPGMA dendrogram and a PCO scatter plot revealed clear differentiation between the populations of L noli-tangere in Wales and those in the Lake District. Most of the genetic variation in the UK (H-T= 0.064) was partitioned between (G(ST) = 0.455) rather than within (H-S = 0.034) regions, inferring little gene flow occurs between regions. There was similar bias towards differentiation between metapopulations in Wales, again consistent with low levels of interpopulation gene flow. This contrasts with far lower levels of differentiation in the Lake District which suggests modest rates of gene flow may occur between populations. It is concluded that in the event of local extinction of sites or populations, reintroductions should be restricted to samples collected from the same region. We then surveyed climatic variables to identify those most likely to cause local extinctions. Climatic correlates of population size were sought from two Lake District metapopulations situated close to a meteorological station. A combination of three climatic variables common to both sites explained 81-84% of the variation in plant number between 1990 and 2001. Projected trends for these climatic variables were used in a Monte Carlo simulation which suggested an increased risk of I. noli-tangere population crashes by 2050 at Coniston Water. but not at Derwentwater. Implications of these findings for practical conservation strategies are explored. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Widespread supplementary feeding in domestic gardens explains the return of reintroduced Red Kites Milvus milvus to an urban area

Reintroductions are used worldwide to mitigate biodiversity loss. One prominent case is a charismatic raptor of conservation concern, the Red Kite Milvus milvus. This species has been reintroduced across the UK over the last 25 years following its near extinction after centuries of persecution. The species was not expected to recolonize urban areas; its historical association with human settlements is attributed to scavenging on human waste and refuse, a resource now greatly reduced on the streets of modern Western cities. However, the species has become a common day-time visitor to a large conurbation centred on the town of Reading, southern England, approximately 20 km from the first English reintroduction site. Given a near-absence of breeding and roost sites, we investigated foraging opportunities and habitat associations that might explain use by Red Kites of this urban area. Surveys of discarded human foods and road-kill suggested that these could support at most 13−29 kites/day. Face-to-face surveys of a cross-section of residents revealed that 4.5% (equivalent to 4349 households) provided supplementary food for kites. Using estimates of per-household resource provision from another study, we calculated that this level is potentially sufficient to provision 142−320 kites, a substantial proportion of the total estimated to visit the conurbation each day (between 140 and 440). Road transects found positive associations between Red Kites and residential areas. We therefore suggest that the decision made by thousands of individuals to provide supplementary food for Red Kites is the primary factor explaining their day-time abundance in this urban area.

Intraspecific trait variation is correlated with establishment success of alien mammals

Many studies have aimed to identify common predictors of successful introductions of alien species, but the search has had limited success, particularly for animals. Past research focused primarily on mean trait values, even though genetic and phenotypic variation has been shown to play a role in establishment success in plants and some animals (mostly invertebrates). Using a global database describing 511 introduction events representing 97 mammalian species, we show that intraspecific variation in morphological traits is associated with establishment success, even when controlling for the positive effect of propagule pressure. In particular, greater establishment success is associated with more variation in adult body size but, surprisingly, less variation in neonate body size, potentially reflecting distinct trade-offs and constraints that influence population dynamics differently. We find no mean trait descriptors associated with establishment success, although species occupying wider native distribution ranges (which likely have larger niches) are more successful. Our results emphasize the importance of explicitly considering intraspecific variation to predict establishment success in animal species and generally to understand population dynamics. This understanding might improve management of alien species and increase the success of intentional releases, for example, for biocontrol or reintroductions.

Dasyurid dilemmas: problems and solutions for conserving Australia's small carnivorous marsupials

Dasyurid marsupials are distributed throughout the major terrestrial environments of Australia but since European settlement have suffered local and regional extinctions, range reductions and population declines. In this paper we examine the conservation status of small dasyurids (<500 g) and the threats they face. We also evaluate recovery procedures for threatened taxa and assess their success. Twenty-four percent of smaller dasyurids are classified as vulnerable, endangered or data deficient. Large body size and occupancy of one or two habitat types are correlated strongly with  endangerment species currently considered as 'low risk, near threatened' group closely with vulnerable and endangered species, indicating a risk of further declines. The processes contributing most to declines include habitat loss and fragmentation, altered fire regimes and predation. As of April 200 I, no Recovery Plans had been adopted by the Commonwealth Govemment for any small dasyund species. There is much information on the reproduction and development of smaller dasyurids, making them suitable for captive breeding. However, captive breeding programs have been limited. the  dibbler Paranrechinus apicalis being the only species bred systematically for reintroductions. There is a need for integration between captive breeding programs and recovery planning. as well as for more information on the population viability and metapopulation structures of small dasyurids genetic diversity of populations and inbreeding depression. We suggest a program of survey. research. management and education to Improve conservation outcomes for all small dasyurids.

A GIS Suitability Analysis of Wolf Habitat in Maine

The range of the Gray Wolf (Canis lupus), once covering most of North America, has been drastically reduced by an estimated 95% due to habitat loss and extermination by humans. The wolf was extirpated from Maine in the 1800’s. Wolf reintroductions have been suggested for Maine, but there is some debate about how much land is suitable for wolves. I developed a wolf habitat suitability analysis using ArcGIS and data from the Maine Office of GIS and the United States National Atlas. The model incorporates land cover, presence of major roads and railways, conservation land, industrial, non-industrial, and public woodlot ownership, distance from major points of population, deer population, and slope. The model results show areas of high and low wolf suitability in Maine. The model suggests that the best potential habitat for wolves in Maine is situated in the northwest of the state. Possible future reintroductions or natural colonization from other areas would have the highest likelihood of survival in these areas.

Reintroduction for recovery of New Holland mouse in Victoria, Australia

The New Holland Mouse (Pseudomys novaehollandiae) has a highly fragmented distribution in SE Australia. The abundance of the species is correlated with habitat succession. Optimal habitat has been identified as 2-3 years after fire, with population densities declining, sometimes to extinction, as vegetation ages. The species has become extinct at many locations in Victoria and, in 1999, was known to be extant at only four localities. When a remnant population at one locality (Anglesea) was considered at high risk of extinction, objectives identified to recover the species included determination of suitable habitat, development of ecological burning regimes, captive breeding and reintroductions. A GIS-based predictive model of habitat capability was consequently produced, areas of potentially suitable habitat for reintroductions identified and ecological burning regimes implemented. Experimental releases began in 2001 when predator-proof acclimatisation enclosures were constructed at two sites, selected on the basis of their habitat suitability. Small groups of animals have been released into, and subsequently out of, these enclosures. Movements and activity have been monitored by live-trapping, fluorescent dye and radio-tracking techniques. The results of trials have been assessed. Un-collared animals dispersed from the enclosures into surrounding areas, and gained weight, while initial releases of collared animals were less successful. Techniques and planning to improve future releases have been formulated. The future of the species in Victoria may be reliant upon the success of captive breeding and reintroductions.

Ecological fire regimes for the recovery and management of threatened small mammals in southern Australia

The application of fire to fauna management, particularly for endangered species, is a significant issue for wildlife managers. Mammals respond to fire regimes including intensity, frequency and season of occurrence, and changes in fire-regimes are implicated in detrimental effects on mammal communities. For many species temporal habitat change is a key factor affecting the persistence of populations. These species require the option of colonising the shifting habitat mosaic. There is substantial evidence that species such as the native rodents New Holland Mouse (Pseudomys novaehollandiae) and Heath Rat (Pseudomys shortridgei) are early successional species dependent on such temporal habitat changes. In conrast species such as the dasyurid marsupial, Swamp Antechinus (Antechinus minimus) are late successional species, which may take up to 20 years to recolonise. In many situations ecological fire regimes need to be implemented to increase areas of suitable habitat for population expansion and reintroductions. This paper assesses research findings and the development of management actions incorporating ecological fire regimes for the recovery of Pseudomyine rodents and the Swamp Antechinus. Spatially explicit models are required to determine changes and patterns at the landscape level. The prospect of global climate change also is of significance and needs to be assessed.

Succession of small mammal communities after fire and reintroduction of the swamp antechinus 'Antechinus minimus'

This thesis is involved with changes that have occurred to small mammal populations following a major disturbance in the Anglesea region as a result of the 1983 Ash Wednesday fires. Fire, with its effects on spatial and temporal heterogeneity, was found to be an important factor in the maintenance of vegetation and small mammal community structure and diversity in the region. Successional changes in vegetation and small mammal communities were described by multivariate analyses, using data collected annually from 22 study sites. The use of factor analysis techniques, in reducing the annual capture data content, enabled long-term changes in the structure of mammal communities to be interpreted. The small mammal communities in the coastal heath and forest vegetation in the Anglesea region show evidence of a general resilience, (the degree and speed of recovery), to disturbance. Two phases of successional response to fire by mammal species have been proposed; a ‘re-establishment’ phase which occurs in the initial 5-6 years post-fire and is accompanied by rapid increase in species’ abundance, and a subsequent ‘maintenance’ phase accompanied by relatively minor changes in abundance. Habitat Suitability Indices were produced relating to these phases. Vertical density measures of understorey shrubs and herb layers showed significant relationships with small mammal species abundance at the study sites. Long term studies following major disturbances are needed to distinguish between short term recovery of plant and animal species and long term changes in these species. Studies extending over a number of years enable a better directional view of changes in small mammal communities than can be determined from . observations made over a short period. As a part of the investigation into temporal change, it was proposed to undertake trial reintroductions of the Swamp antechinus, Ant echinus minimus, a marsupial dasyurid species which was trapped in the area prior to the 1983 fire, but rarely subsequently. Other more commonly observed native small mammal species (e.g. Rattus fuscipes,R. lutreolus, Antechinus stuartii, Sminthopsis leucopus) had re-invaded the proposed reintroduction site after this fire. Failure of A. minimus to re-establish may have been due to spatial separation of the pre-fire populations coupled with the extensive area burnt in 1983, A source population of the species was located about 100km to the west and habitat utilization and interspecific and niche relationships between the species making the small mammal community explored. Discriminant analysis revealed some spatial separation of species within a habitat based on structural vegetation factors rather than floristic factors. Temporal separation of species was observed, asA. minimus were more active than Rattus species during daylight periods. There was evidence of micro-habitat selection by species, and structural vegetation factors were most commonly identified in statistical analyses as contributing towards selection by small mammal species. Following a theoretical modelling study three reintroduction trials were carried out near Anglesea during 1992-94. Individuals were subsequently radio tracked, and habitat relationships between the species in the small mammal community investigated. Although successful breeding of A, minimus occurred during the latter two trials, the subsequent fate of offspring was not determined. Invasive techniques required to adequately monitor young animals were considered potentially too damaging. Telemetry studies indicated a preference of A. minimus for short, wet heath vegetation. Structural vegetation factors were identified as being significant in discriminating between capture locations of species. Small scale and inexpensive trial reintroductions have yielded valuable additional data on this species and may be viewed as a useful tool in the conservation of other small native mammals.

Resolving the value of the dingo in ecological restoration

There is global interest in restoring populations of apex predators, both to conserve them and to harness their ecological services. In Australia, reintroduction of dingoes (Canis dingo) has been proposed to help restore degraded rangelands. This proposal is based on theories and the results of studies suggesting that dingoes can suppress populations of prey (especially medium- and large-sized herbivores) and invasive predators such as red foxes (Vulpes vulpes) and feral cats (Felis catus) that prey on threatened native species. However, the idea of dingo reintroduction has met opposition, especially from scientists who query the dingo's positive effects for some species or in some environments. Here, we ask 'what is a feasible experimental design for assessing the role of dingoes in ecological restoration?' We outline and propose a dingo reintroduction experiment-one that draws upon the existing dingo-proof fence-and identify an area suitable for this (Sturt National Park, western New South Wales). Although challenging, this initiative would test whether dingoes can help restore Australia's rangeland biodiversity, and potentially provide proof-of-concept for apex predator reintroductions globally.