Dynamic D-Vine copula model with applications to Value-at-Risk (VaR)

Regular vine copulas are multivariate dependence models constructed from pair-copulas (bivariate copulas). In this paper, we allow the dependence parameters of the pair-copulas in a D-vine decomposition to be potentially time-varying, following a nonlinear restricted ARMA(1,m) process, in order to obtain a very flexible dependence model for applications to multivariate financial return data. We investigate the dependence among the broad stock market indexes from Germany (DAX), France (CAC 40), Britain (FTSE 100), the United States (S&P 500) and Brazil (IBOVESPA) both in a crisis and in a non-crisis period. We find evidence of stronger dependence among the indexes in bear markets. Surprisingly, though, the dynamic D-vine copula indicates the occurrence of a sharp decrease in dependence between the indexes FTSE and CAC in the beginning of 2011, and also between CAC and DAX during mid-2011 and in the beginning of 2008, suggesting the absence of contagion in these cases. We also evaluate the dynamic D-vine copula with respect to Value-at-Risk (VaR) forecasting accuracy in crisis periods. The dynamic D-vine outperforms the static D-vine in terms of predictive accuracy for our real data sets.

Identifying key belief-based targets for promoting regular physical activity among mothers and fathers with young children

We investigated the key beliefs to target in interventions aimed at increasing physical activity (PA) among mothers and fathers of young children. Parents (288 mothers and 292 fathers) completed a Theory of Planned Behaviour belief-based questionnaire and a 1-week follow-up of PA behaviour. We found that a range of behavioural, normative, and control beliefs were significantly correlated with parents’ PA intentions and behaviour, with only a few differences observed in correlations between PA beliefs and intention and behaviour by gender. A range of key beliefs was identified as making independent contributions to parents’ PA intentions; however, the behavioural beliefs about improving parenting practices (β = 0.13), interfering with other commitments (β = −0.29); normative beliefs about people I exercise with (β = 0.20); and control beliefs about lack of time (β = −0.24), inconvenience (β = −0.14), lack of motivation (β = −0.34), were revealed as significant independent predictors of actual PA behaviour. Furthermore, we found that a limited amount of parents already hold these beliefs, suggesting that these key beliefs warrant changing and, therefore, are appropriate targets for subsequent intervention. The current study fills an empirical gap in the PA literature by investigating an at-risk group and using a well established theoretical framework to identify key beliefs that guide parents’ PA decision-making. Overall, we found support for parents being a unique group who hold distinctive behavioural, normative, and control beliefs toward PA. Attention to these key underlying beliefs will assist intervention work aimed at combating inactivity among this at-risk population.

Regular exercise participation mediates the affective response to acute bouts of vigorous exercise

Physical inactivity is a leading factor associated with cardiovascular disease and a major contributor to the global burden of disease in developed countries. Subjective mood states associated with acute exercise are likely to influence future exercise adherence and warrant further investigation. The present study examined the effects of a single bout of vigorous exercise on mood and anxiety between individuals with substantially different exercise participation histories. Mood and anxiety were assessed one day before an exercise test (baseline), 5 minutes before (pre-test) and again 10 and 25 minutes post-exercise. Participants were 31 university students (16 males, 15 females; Age M = 20), with 16 participants reporting a history of regular exercise with the remaining 15 reporting to not exercise regularly. Each participant completed an incremental exercise test on a Monark cycle ergometer to volitional exhaustion. Regular exercisers reported significant post-exercise improvements in mood and reductions in state anxiety. By contrast, non-regular exercisers reported an initial decline in post-exercise mood and increased anxiety, followed by an improvement in mood and reduction in anxiety back to pre-exercise levels. Our findings suggest that previous exercise participation mediates affective responses to acute bouts of vigorous exercise. We suggest that to maximise positive mood changes following exercise, practitioners should carefully consider the individual’s exercise participation history before prescribing new regimes.

A free weekly iron-folic acid supplementation and regular deworming program is associated with improved hemoglobin and iron status indicators in Vietnamese women

Background Anemia due to iron deficiency is recognized as one of the major nutritional deficiencies in women and children in developing countries. Daily iron supplementation for pregnant women is recommended in many countries although there are few reports of these programs working efficiently or effectively. Weekly iron-folic acid supplementation (WIFS) and regular deworming treatment is recommended for non-pregnant women living in areas with high rates of anemia. Following a baseline survey to assess the prevalence of anemia, iron deficiency and soil transmitted helminth infections, we implemented a program to make WIFS and regular deworming treatment freely and universally available for all women of reproductive age in two districts of a province in northern Vietnam over a 12 month period. The impact of the program at the population level was assessed in terms of: i) change in mean hemoglobin and iron status indicators, and ii) change in the prevalence of anemia, iron deficiency and hookworm infections. Method Distribution of WIFS and deworming were integrated with routine health services and made available to 52,000 women. Demographic data and blood and stool samples were collected in baseline, and three and 12-month post-implementation surveys using a population-based, stratified multi-stage cluster sampling design. Results The mean Hb increased by 9.6 g/L (95% CI, 5.7, 13.5, p < 0.001) during the study period. Anemia (Hb<120 g/L) was present in 131/349 (37.5%, 95% CI 31.3, 44.8) subjects at baseline, and in 70/363 (19.3%, 95% CI 14.0, 24.6) after twelve months. Iron deficiency reduced from 75/329 (22.8%, 95% CI 16.9, 28.6) to 33/353 (9.3%, 95% CI 5.7, 13.0) by the 12-mnth survey, and hookworm infection from 279/366 (76.2%,, 95% CI 68.6, 83.8) to 66/287 (23.0%, 95% CI 17.5, 28.5) over the same period. Conclusion A free, universal WIFS program with regular deworming was associated with reduced prevalence and severity of anemia, iron deficiency and ho

Anchoring and exposing in the third place : regular identification at the boundaries of social realms

Harry’s is my favourite bar in my neighbourhood. It is a small wine bar, owned by three men in their late thirties and targeted at people like them; my gentrifying inner city neighbourhood’s 20 to 40 something urban middle class. Harry’s has seats along the bar, booths inside, and a courtyard out the back. The seating arrangements mean that larger groups tend to gather outside, groups of two to four spread around the location, and people by themselves, or in groups of two, tend to sit at the bar. I usually sit at the bar....

Book review: "English for telecoms and information technology" by T. Ricca and M. Duckworth; "English for legal professionals" by A. Frost; "English for the pharmaceutical industry" by M. Buchler, K. Jaehnig, G. Matzig, and T. Weindler; "English for cabin crews" by S. Ellis and L. Lansford; and "English for negotiating" by C. Lafond, S. Vine, and B. Welch.

This review examines five books in the Oxford Business English Express Series, including "English for telecoms and information technology" by T. Ricca and M. Duckworth; "English for legal professionals" by A. Frost; "English for the pharmaceutical industry" by M. Buchler, K. Jaehnig, G. Matzig, and T. Weindler; "English for cabin crews" by S. Ellis and L. Lansford; and "English for negotiating" by C. Lafond, S. Vine, and B. Welch.

The neglected dimension of community liveability : impact on social connectedness and active ageing in higher density accommodation

Purpose This thesis is about liveability, place and ageing in the high density urban landscape of Brisbane, Australia. As with other major developed cities around the globe, Brisbane has adopted policies to increase urban residential densities to meet the main liveability and sustainability aim of decreasing car dependence and therefore pollution, as well as to minimise the loss of greenfield areas and habitats to developers. This objective hinges on urban neighbourhoods/communities being liveable places, which residents do not have to leave for everyday living. Community/neighbourhood liveability is an essential ingredient in healthy ageing in place and has a substantial impact upon the safety, independence and well-being of older adults. It is generally accepted that ageing in place is optimal for both older people and the state. The optimality of ageing in place generally assumes that there is a particular quality to environments or standard of liveability in which people successfully age in place. The aim of this thesis was to examine if there are particular environmental qualities or aspects of liveability that test optimality and to better understand the key liveability factors that contribute to successful ageing in place. Method A strength of this thesis is that it draws on two separate studies to address the research question of what makes high density liveable for older people. In Chapter 3, the two methods are identified and differentiated as Method 1 (used in Paper 1) and Method 2 (used in Papers 2, 3, 4 and 5). Method 1 involved qualitative interviews with 24 inner city high density Brisbane residents. The major strength of this thesis is the innovative methodology outlined in the thesis as Method 2. Method 2 involved a case study approach employing qualitative and quantitative methods. Qualitative data was collected using semi-structured, in-depth interviews and time-use diaries completed by participants during the week of tracking. The quantitative data was gathered using Global Positioning Systems for tracking and Geographical Information Systems for mapping and analysis of participants’ activities. The combination of quantitative and qualitative analysis captured both participants’ subjective perceptions of their neighbourhoods and their patterns of movement. This enhanced understanding of how neighbourhoods and communities function and of the various liveability dimensions that contribute to active ageing and ageing in place for older people living in high density environments. Both studies’ participants were inner-city high density residents of Brisbane. The study based on Method 1 drew on a wider age demographic than the study based on Method 2. Findings The five papers presented in this thesis by publication indicate a complex inter-relationship of the factors that make a place liveable. The first three papers identify what is comparable and different between the physical and social factors of high density communities/neighbourhoods. The last two papers explore relationships between social engagement and broader community variables such as infrastructure and the physical built environments that are risk or protective factors relevant to community liveability, active ageing and ageing in place in high density. The research highlights the importance of creating and/or maintaining a barrier-free environment and liveable community for ageing adults. Together, the papers promote liveability, social engagement and active ageing in high density neighbourhoods by identifying factors that constitute liveability and strategies that foster active ageing and ageing in place, social connections and well-being. Recommendations There is a strong need to offer more support for active ageing and ageing in place. While the data analyses of this research provide insight into the lived experience of high density residents, further research is warranted. Further qualitative and quantitative research is needed to explore in more depth, the urban experience and opinions of older people living in urban environments. In particular, more empirical research and theory-building is needed in order to expand understanding of the particular environmental qualities that enable successful ageing in place in our cities and to guide efforts aimed at meeting this objective. The results suggest that encouraging the presence of more inner city retail outlets, particularly services that are utilised frequently in people’s daily lives such as supermarkets, medical services and pharmacies, would potentially help ensure residents fully engage in their local community. The connectivity of streets, footpaths and their role in facilitating the reaching of destinations are well understood as an important dimension of liveability. To encourage uptake of sustainable transport, the built environment must provide easy, accessible connections between buildings, walkways, cycle paths and public transport nodes. Wider streets, given that they take more time to cross than narrow streets, tend to .compromise safety - especially for older people. Similarly, the width of footpaths, the level of buffering, the presence of trees, lighting, seating and design of and distance between pedestrian crossings significantly affects the pedestrian experience for older people and impacts upon their choice of transportation. High density neighbourhoods also require greater levels of street fixtures and furniture for everyday life to make places more useable and comfortable for regular use. The importance of making the public realm useful and habitable for older people cannot be over-emphasised. Originality/value While older people are attracted to high density settings, there has been little empirical evidence linking liveability satisfaction with older people’s use of urban neighbourhoods. The current study examined the relationships between community/neighbourhood liveability, place and ageing to better understand the implications for those adults who age in place. The five papers presented in this thesis add to the understanding of what high density liveable age-friendly communities/ neighbourhoods are and what makes them so for older Australians. Neighbourhood liveability for older people is about being able to age in place and remain active. Issues of ageing in Australia and other areas of the developed world will become more critical in the coming decades. Creating livable communities for all ages calls for partnerships across all levels of government agencies and among different sectors within communities. The increasing percentage of older people in the community will have increasing political influence and it will be a foolish government who ignores the needs of an older society.

Variation in leaf structure of the invasive Madeira vine (Anredera cordifolia, Basellaceae) at different light levels

Madeira vine (Anredera cordifolia (Ten.) Steenis) is a climber in the angiosperm family Basellaceae. It is native to South America and has naturalised in Australia. It is regarded as a serious environmental weed because of the structural damage it causes to native vegetation. The present study, for the first time, documents anatomical and morphological traits of the leaves of A. cordifolia and considers their implications for its ecology and physiology. Plants were grown under three different light levels, and anatomical and morphological leaf characters were compared among light levels, among cohorts, and with documented traits of the related species, Basella alba L. Stomata were present on both the adaxial and abaxial sides of the leaf, with significantly more stomata on the abaxial side and under high light. This may account for the ability of this species to fix large amounts of carbon and rapidly respond to light gaps. The leaves had very narrow veins and no sclerenchyma, suggesting a low construction cost that is associated with invasive plants. There was no significant difference in any of the traits among different cohorts, which agrees with the claim that A. cordifolia primarily propagates vegetatively. The anatomy and morphology of A. cordifolia was similar to that of B. alba.

Homologs of FT, CEN and FD respond to developmental and environmental signals affecting growth and flowering in the perennial vine kiwifruit

FLOWERING LOCUS T (FT) and CENTRORADIALIS (CEN) homologs have been implicated in regulation of growth, determinacy and flowering. The roles of kiwifruit FT and CEN were explored using a combination of expression analysis, protein interactions, response to temperature in high-chill and low-chill kiwifruit cultivars and ectopic expression in Arabidopsis and Actinidia. The expression and activity of FT was opposite from that of CEN and incorporated an interaction with a FLOWERING LOCUS D (FD)-like bZIP transcription factor. Accumulation of FT transcript was associated with plant maturity and particular stages of leaf, flower and fruit development, but could be detected irrespective of the flowering process and failed to induce precocious flowering in transgenic kiwifruit. Instead, transgenic plants demonstrated reduced growth and survival rate. Accumulation of FT transcript was detected in dormant buds and stem in response to winter chilling. In contrast, FD in buds was reduced by exposure to cold. CEN transcript accumulated in developing latent buds, but declined before the onset of dormancy and delayed flowering when ectopically expressed in kiwifruit. Our results suggest roles for FT, CEN and FD in integration of developmental and environmental cues that affect dormancy, budbreak and flowering in kiwifruit.

Coordination and plasticity in leaf anatomical traits of invasive and native vine species

Premise of the study: Plant invasiveness can be promoted by higher values of adaptive traits (e.g., photosynthetic capacity, biomass accumulation), greater plasticity and coordination of these traits, and by higher and positive relative influence of these functionalities on fitness, such as increasing reproductive output. However, the dataset for this premise rarely include linkages between epidermal-stomatal traits, leaf internal anatomy, and physiological performance. Methods: Three ecological pairs of invasive vs non-invasive (native) woody vine species of South-East Queensland, Australia were investigated for trait differences in leaf morphology and anatomy under varying light intensity. The linkages of these traits with physiological performance (e.g. water use efficiency, photosynthesis, and leaf construction cost) and plant adaptive traits of specific leaf area, biomass, and relative growth rates were also explored. Key results: Mean leaf anatomical trait differed significantly between the two groups, except for stomatal size. Plasticity of traits, and to a very limited extent, their phenotypic integration were higher in the invasive relative to the native species. ANOVA, ordination, and analysis of similarity suggest that for leaf morphology and anatomy, the three functional strategies contribute to the differences between the two groups in the order phenotypic plasticity > trait means > phenotypic integration. Conclusions: The linkages demonstrated in the study between stomatal complex/gross anatomy and physiology are scarce in the ecological literature of plant invasiveness, but the findings suggest that leaf anatomical traits need to be considered routinely as part of weed species assessment and in the worldwide leaf economic spectrum.

Fibre diffraction of lithium DNA shows structural variability and deviation from a regular helical structure for the B-form

Recently, reports have appeared which show structural variations in B-DNA and indicate deviations from a uniform helical structure. We report for the first time that these indications are also present in the B-form fibre diffraction patterns for the lithium salt of natural DNA. We have used an improved method of controlling the salt concentration in the fibres. Our results are based on the appearance and disappearance of meridional reflections on different layer lines depending upon the salt.

Effect of microwave radiation on seed mortality of rubber vine (Cryptostegia grandiflora R.Br.), parthenium (Parthenium hysterophorous L.) and bellyache bush (Jatropha gossypiifolia L.)

A trial was undertaken to evaluate the effect of microwaves on seed mortality of three weed species. Seeds of rubber vine (Cryptostegia grandiflora R.Br.), parthenium (Parthenium hysterophorous L.) and bellyache bush (Jatropha gossypiifolia L.) were buried at six depths (0, 2.5, 5, 10, 20 and 40 cm) in coarse sand maintained at one of two moisture levels, oven dry or wet (field capacity), and then subjected to one of five microwave radiation durations of (0, 2, 4, 8 and 16 min). Significant interactions between soil moisture level, microwave radiation duration, seed burial depth and species were detected for mortality of seeds of all three species. Maximum seed mortality of rubber vine (88%), parthenium (67%) and bellyache bush (94%) occurred in wet soil irradiated for 16 min. Maximum seed mortality of rubber vine and bellyache bush seeds occurred in seeds buried at 2.5 cm depth whereas that of parthenium occurred in seeds buried at 10 cm depth. Maximum soil temperatures of 114.1 and 87.5°C in dry and wet soil respectively occurred at 2.5 cm depth following 16 min irradiation. Irrespective of the greater soil temperatures recorded in dry soil, irradiating seeds in wet soil generally increased seed mortality 2.9-fold compared with dry soil. Moisture content of wet soil averaged 5.7% compared with 0.1% for dry soil. Results suggest that microwave radiation has the potential to kill seeds located in the soil seed bank. However, many factors, including weed species susceptibility, determine the effectiveness of microwave radiation on buried seeds. Microwave radiation may be an alternative to conventional methods at rapidly depleting soil seed banks in the field, particularly in relatively wet soils that contain long lived weed seeds.

Multipath Dissemination in Regular Mesh Topologies

Mesh topologies are important for large-scale peer-to-peer systems that use low-power transceivers. The Quality of Service (QoS) in such systems is known to decrease as the scale increases. We present a scalable approach for dissemination that exploits all the shortest paths between a pair of nodes and improves the QoS. Despite th presence of multiple shortest paths in a system, we show that these paths cannot be exploited by spreading the messages over the paths in a simple round-robin manner; nodes along one of these paths will always handle more messages than the nodes along the other paths. We characterize the set of shortest paths between a pair of nodes in regular mesh topologies and derive rules, using this characterization, to effectively spread the messages over all the available paths. These rules ensure that all the nodes that are at the same distance from the source handle roughly the same number of messages. By modeling the multihop propagation in the mesh topology as a multistage queuing network, we present simulation results from a variety of scenarios that include link failures and propagation irregularities to reflect real-world characteristics. Our method achieves improved QoS in all these scenarios.