Fine-scale estimations of bioclimatic change in the Valencia region, Spain

Recent advances in statistical downscaling have allowed the reconstruction of temperatures for the complete 1948–2011 period in a spatial resolution of 90 m and without gaps for the Valencian Community (Spain) and bordering areas. It presently enables analyses in this region, which allows the determination of recent temperature changes at subregional and local scales. The present work focuses on obtaining the thermicity index according to Rivas-Martínez, a well-known indicator of different thermotypes associated with bioclimatic horizons. The change in this index, which has happened in the region between 1948 and 2011, was calculated by generating fine-scale maps of the potential extension of different thermotypes. The results show a greater regression for the thermotypes in a finicolous position, e.g. Orotemperate, Supratemperate and Supramediterranean horizons, which herein indicate greater potential vulnerability in climate change. In the absence of, and given the need for, such fine-scale information, this work should be useful for specialized researchers to spatially limit the potentially most vulnerable biotopes to climate change.

Regressive measures won’t help youth into work or training

The 2014 federal budget implemented a so-called crackdown on what Minister for Social Services Kevin Andrews calls young people who are content to “sit on the couch at home and pick up a welfare cheque”. The crackdown will change access to income support for people under 30 years of age. From January 1 2015, all young people seeking Newstart Allowance and Youth Allowance for the first time will be required to “demonstrate appropriate job search and participation in employment services support for six months before receiving payments”. Upon qualifying, recipients must then spend 25 hours per week in Work for the Dole in order to receive income support for a six-month period. What happens beyond this six months is unclear. What is clear is that these policy changes, together with the Minister’s accompanying statements, are informed by a deficit view of disadvantaged youth. It is a view that demonstrates how little politicians know or understand about these young peoples’ past circumstances.

Análisis diacrónico de la producción española de tesis doctorales en educación matemática mediante la metodología ARIMA (Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average) en datos de diseños longitudinales.

Se analiza la manera en que se realizan las tesis doctorales en educación matemática en España. Se utiliza la metodología ARIMA (Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average) para realizar el análisis de manera diacrónica sobre datos longitudinales. Se hace incapié en la importancia de la metodología usada y sus ventajas frente a las metodologías tradicionalmente usadas en análisis diacrónicos. Se exponen las cuatro fases de la metodología ARIMA, correspondientes a la identificación del proceso, la estimación de cambio en el proceso, la validación del mismo y la predicción de sus consecuencias.

Application of auto regressive models of wavelet sub-bands for classifying Terahertz pulse measurements

This paper presents an approach for automatic classification of pulsed Terahertz (THz), or T-ray, signals highlighting their potential in biomedical, pharmaceutical and security applications. T-ray classification systems supply a wealth of information about test samples and make possible the discrimination of heterogeneous layers within an object. In this paper, a novel technique involving the use of Auto Regressive (AR) and Auto Regressive Moving Average (ARMA) models on the wavelet transforms of measured T-ray pulse data is presented. Two example applications are examined - the classi. cation of normal human bone (NHB) osteoblasts against human osteosarcoma (HOS) cells and the identification of six different powder samples. A variety of model types and orders are used to generate descriptive features for subsequent classification. Wavelet-based de-noising with soft threshold shrinkage is applied to the measured T-ray signals prior to modeling. For classi. cation, a simple Mahalanobis distance classi. er is used. After feature extraction, classi. cation accuracy for cancerous and normal cell types is 93%, whereas for powders, it is 98%.

Controls of heavy minerals and grain size in a holocene regressive barrier (Ilha Comprida, southeastern Brazil)

Ilha Comprida is a regressive barrier island located in southeastern Brazil that was formed essentially by Quaternary sandy sediments. Ilha Comprida sediments were analyzed to assess heavy mineral indices and grain size variables. The spatial variation of heavy minerals and grain size was interpreted in terms of the present barrier dynamics and the barrier`s evolution since the Middle Holocene. These analyses allowed for the identification of the main factors and processes that control the variation of heavy minerals and grain size on the barrier. Rutile and zircon (RZi) and tourmaline and hornblende (THi) are significantly sensitive to provenance and exhibit the contributions of the Ribeira de Iguape River sediments, which reach the coast next to the northeastern end of Ilha Comprida. In addition to the influence of provenance, TZi responds mainly to hydraulic sorting processes. This agrees with a sediment transport pattern characterized by a divergence of two resultant net alongshore drifts southwest of the barrier. The sediments from the Ribeira de Iguape River reach the barrier directly through the river mouth and indirectly after temporary storage in the inner shelf. The combination of grain size and heavy mineral analyses is a reliable method for determining sediment transport patterns and provenance. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Regressive logistic and proportional hazards disease models for within-family analyses of measured genotypes, with application to a CYP17 polymorphism and breast cancer

Various statistical methods have been proposed to evaluate associations between measured genetic variants and disease, including some using family designs. For breast cancer and rare variants, we applied a modified segregation analysis method that uses the population cancer incidence and population-based case families in which a mutation is known to be segregating. Here we extend the method to a common polymorphism, and use a regressive logistic approach to model familial aggregation by conditioning each individual on their mother's breast cancer history. We considered three models: 1) class A regressive logistic model; 2) age-of-onset regressive logistic model; and 3) proportional hazards familial model. Maximum likelihood estimates were calculated using the software MENDEL. We applied these methods to data from the Australian Breast Cancer Family Study on the CYP17 5UTR TC MspA1 polymorphism measured for 1,447 case probands, 787 controls, and 213 relatives of case probands found to have the CC genotype. Breast cancer data for first- and second-degree relatives of case probands were used. The three methods gave consistent estimates. The best-fitting model involved a recessive inheritance, with homozygotes being at an increased risk of 47% (95% CI, 28-68%). The cumulative risk of the disease up to age 70 years was estimated to be 10% or 22% for a CYP17 homozygote whose mother was unaffected or affected, respectively. This analytical approach is well-suited to the data that arise from population-based case-control-family studies, in which cases, controls and relatives are studied, and genotype is measured for some but not all subjects.

Should educational policies be regressive?

In this paper, we show that when the government is able to transfer wealth between generations, regressive policies are no longer optimal. The optimal educational policy can be decentralized through appropriate Pigouvian taxes and credit provision, is not regressive, and provides equality of opportunities in education (in the sense of irrelevance of parental income for the amount of education). Moreover, in the presence of default, the optimal policy can be implemented through income-contingent payments.

Chronostratigraphy and radiocarbon age inversion in the Holocene regressive barrier of Paraná, southern Brazil

Twenty-two 14C datings were performed at the central sector of the Paraná coast to define Holocene regressive barrier evolution. The barrier Pleistocene substratum was ascribed an age between 40 400 and 30 000 yr BP, but it can also represent the penultimate sea level highstand during marine isotope stage 5e. The Holocene barrier samples provided ages between 8542-8279 and 2987-2751 cal yr BP, and showed at least six age inversions that were related to age differences between in situ or low-distance transported shells or trunk fragments, and high-distance transported vegetal debris, wood fragments and organic matter samples. The regressive Holocene barrier age was 4402-4135 cal yr BP near the base, and 2987-2751 cal yr BP near the top. Most of the vegetal remains were transported by ebb tidal currents from the estuaries to the inner shelf below wave base level during the mid-Holocene highstand; they were transported onshore by storm waves and littoral currents during the sea level lowering after the sea level maximum, and were deposited mainly as middle shoreface swaley cross-stratification facies. © 2008.

In pulmonary paracoccidioidomycosis IL-10 deficiency leads to increased immunity and regressive infection without enhancing tissue pathology

BACKGROUND: Cellular immunity is the main defense mechanism in paracoccidioidomycosis (PCM), the most important systemic mycosis in Latin America. Th1 immunity and IFN-γ activated macrophages are fundamental to immunoprotection that is antagonized by IL-10, an anti-inflammatory cytokine. Both in human and experimental PCM, several evidences indicate that the suppressive effect of IL-10 causes detrimental effects to infected hosts. Because direct studies have not been performed, this study was aimed to characterize the function of IL-10 in pulmonary PCM. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Wild type (WT) and IL-10(-/-) C57BL/6 mice were used to characterize the role of IL-10 in the innate and adaptive immunity against Paracoccidioides brasiliensis (Pb) infection. We verified that Pb-infected peritoneal macrophages from IL-10(-/-) mice presented higher phagocytic and fungicidal activities than WT macrophages, and these activities were associated with elevated production of IFN-γ, TNF-α, nitric oxide (NO) and MCP-1. For in vivo studies, IL-10(-/-) and WT mice were i.t. infected with 1×10(6) Pb yeasts and studied at several post-infection periods. Compared to WT mice, IL-10(-/-) mice showed increased resistance to P. brasiliensis infection as determined by the progressive control of pulmonary fungal loads and total clearance of fungal cells from dissemination organs. This behavior was accompanied by enhanced delayed-type hypersensitivity reactions, precocious humoral immunity and controlled tissue pathology resulting in increased survival times. In addition, IL-10(-/-) mice developed precocious T cell immunity mediated by increased numbers of lung infiltrating effector/memory CD4(+) and CD8(+) T cells. The inflammatory reactions and the production of Th1/Th2/Th17 cytokines were reduced at late phases of infection, paralleling the regressive infection of IL-10(-/-) mice. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our work demonstrates for the first time that IL-10 plays a detrimental effect to pulmonary PCM due to its suppressive effect on the innate and adaptive immunity resulting in progressive infection and precocious mortality of infected hosts.

Dengue fever and el nino-southern oscillation in Queensland, Australia : a time series predictive model

Background It remains unclear over whether it is possible to develop an epidemic forecasting model for transmission of dengue fever in Queensland, Australia. Objectives To examine the potential impact of El Niño/Southern Oscillation on the transmission of dengue fever in Queensland, Australia and explore the possibility of developing a forecast model of dengue fever. Methods Data on the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), an indicator of El Niño/Southern Oscillation activity, were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Numbers of dengue fever cases notified and the numbers of postcode areas with dengue fever cases between January 1993 and December 2005 were obtained from the Queensland Health and relevant population data were obtained from the Australia Bureau of Statistics. A multivariate Seasonal Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average model was developed and validated by dividing the data file into two datasets: the data from January 1993 to December 2003 were used to construct a model and those from January 2004 to December 2005 were used to validate it. Results A decrease in the average SOI (ie, warmer conditions) during the preceding 3–12 months was significantly associated with an increase in the monthly numbers of postcode areas with dengue fever cases (β=−0.038; p = 0.019). Predicted values from the Seasonal Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average model were consistent with the observed values in the validation dataset (root-mean-square percentage error: 1.93%). Conclusions Climate variability is directly and/or indirectly associated with dengue transmission and the development of an SOI-based epidemic forecasting system is possible for dengue fever in Queensland, Australia.

Freeway traffic oscillations : microscopic analysis of formations and propagations using Wavelet Transform

In this paper we identify the origins of stop-and-go (or slow-and-go) driving and measure microscopic features of their propagations by analyzing vehicle trajectories via Wavelet Transform. Based on 53 oscillation cases analyzed, we find that oscillations can be originated by either lane-changing maneuvers (LCMs) or car-following behavior (CF). LCMs were predominantly responsible for oscillation formations in the absence of considerable horizontal or vertical curves, whereas oscillations formed spontaneously near roadside work on an uphill segment. Regardless of the trigger, the features of oscillation propagations were similar in terms of propagation speed, oscillation duration, and amplitude. All observed cases initially exhibited a precursor phase, in which slow-and-go motions were localized. Some of them eventually transitioned into a well developed phase, in which oscillations propagated upstream in queue. LCMs were primarily responsible for the transition, although some transitions occurred without LCMs. Our findings also suggest that an oscillation has a regressive effect on car following behavior: a deceleration wave of an oscillation affects a timid driver (with larger response time and minimum spacing) to become less timid and an aggressive driver less aggressive, although this change may be short-lived. An extended framework of Newell’s CF is able to describe the regressive effects with two additional parameters with reasonable accuracy, as verified using vehicle trajectory data.

The effects of lane-changing on the immediate follower : anticipation, relaxation, and change in driver characteristics

This paper investigates the effects of lane-changing in driver behavior by measuring (i) the induced transient behavior and (ii) the change in driver characteristics, i.e., changes in driver response time and minimum spacing. We find that the transition largely consists of a pre-insertion transition and a relaxation process. These two processes are different but can be reasonably captured with a single model. The findings also suggest that lane-changing induces a regressive effect on driver characteristics: a timid driver (characterized by larger response time and minimum spacing) tends to become less timid and an aggressive driver less aggressive. We offer an extension to Newell’s car-following model to describe this regressive effect and verify it using vehicle trajectory data.