Getting the carry trade's jackpot

This Working Project studies five portfolios of currency carry trades formed with the G10 currencies. Performance varies among strategies and the most basic one presents the worst results. I also study the equity and Pure FX risk factors which can explain the portfolios’ returns. Equity factors do not explain these returns while the Pure FX do for some of the strategies. Downside risk measures indicate the importance of using regime indicators to avoid losses. I conclude that although using VAR and threshold regression models with a variety of regime indicators do not allow the perception of different regimes, with a defined exogenous threshold on real exchange rates, an indicator of liquidity and the volatilities of the spot exchange rates it is possible to increase the average returns and reduce drawdowns of the carry trades

Finance-Led Growth Regime no Brasil: estatuto teórico, evidências empíricas e consequências macroeconômicas

This paper analyzes the Brazilian growth pattern during the post-liberalization period, emphasizing the structural links between finance and productive capital accumulation. The results indicate a finance-led growth regime in the period 2004-2008, under a very specific financialization process. The first part is a survey of the international literature, which defines the financialization concept and its relevance for understanding Brazilian economic problems. The next part provides a historical overview on the structural changes that made possible the development of financial-led regimes. The paper also applies an empirical analysis of some selected Brazilian macroeconomic indicators.

Performance indicators for the physical therapy program’s field academic programs at the Universidad del Rosario for 2004-2007.

Introducción: El programa de Fisioterapia de la Universidad del Rosario, en su responsabilidad social de generar un impacto positivo en la comunidad y en su propósito de formar profesionales, cuenta con los Programas Académicos de Campo (PAC) que se consideran una fuerte estrategia de extensión de la Universidad. Los PAC contribuyen a la adquisición de competencias para el desarrollo de procesos de acción-actuación-creación en los estudiantes para que resuelvan problemas en un espacio real de ejercicio profesional. Bajo esta perspectiva los PAC del programa de Fisioterapia muestran su comportamiento a través de la medición de indicadores de proceso y resultados propuestos desde el Programa con el fin de proveer información útil para la reorientación y permanente actualización de los contenidos programáticos en las asignaturas y en los mismos PAC. Materiales y métodos: En el siguiente artículo se presenta un análisis de los indicadores de demanda por género, régimen de Seguridad Social en Salud, procedimiento y morbilidad de los Programas Académicos de Campo Integral Pediátrico, Integral de Adultos y Rehabilitación cardíaca y/o pulmonar, con el fin de establecer las características de la población objeto de la prestación de los servicios y procurar información verificable que dé soporte para la construcción de procesos de cambio dentro de la dinámica de mejoramiento continuo que debe tener cualquier institución. Este seguimiento es útil para la toma de decisiones de planeación académica que contribuye a mejorar los procesos de planeación y a facilitar el cumplimiento de los propósitos de formación para cada práctica, y de esta manera ayuda a ser elemento de análisis para directivas, instructores y estudiantes en la orientación del proceso de gestión académico-administrativo, y a retroalimentar los procesos de planeación y programación académica. Resultados: Los resultados arrojados en el análisis de los datos de la morbilidad en los programas académicos de campo muestran el siguiente comportamiento durante los años 2004, 2005, 2006 y 2007. Conclusiones: En el PAC pediátrico la mayor incidencia es de asma con un 37,2% y la más baja incidencia es para luxación congénita de cadera y enfermedad mental de origen central con un 0,1%. El 58% de los usuarios es de género masculino, y el 81% del total pertenece al régimen contributivo. En la morbilidad del PAC de adultos la mayor incidencia es de EPOC, con un 23,2%, y la menor incidencia es de lumbalgia, con un 2,4%. La mayoría de usuarios atendidos (58%) son hombres, y el 58% de los usuarios pertenece al régimen contributivo. En el PAC de rehabilitación cardíaca y/o pulmonar la mayor incidencia fue de EPOC, con un 40%; seguido de neumonía, con 17%; y con una menor incidencia para asma, con un 2%. El 54% de los usuarios son hombres y el 91% del total pertenece al régimen subsidiado.

MPME- Qual o tratamento mais adequado - regime diferenciado como forma de redução da informalidade?

Este trabalho analisa o papel das micro , pequenas e médias empresas no Brasil, sua importância na geração de rendas e empregos e compara os principais indicadores desse segmento com o de outros países. O trabalho faz uma análise dos principais problemas que dificultam o desenvolvimento das MPME, evidencia o que já foi feito e sugere que as políticas públicas priorizem a melhoria da competitividade das empresas, através da redução dos obstáculos causados pela excessiva regulamentação, dificuldades de acesso a financiamentos de médio e de longo prazos e através de programas e incentivos visando a melhoria da gestão das mesmas. O trabalho evidencia a importância e a evolução dos Distritos Industriais ( APL's) no Brasil, por muitos considerado como uma alternativa de fortalecimento das MPME e de desenvolvimento regional. É feita uma análise dos principais indicadores da economia informal e como algumas medidas de políticas públicas poderiam colaborar para redução dos atuais níveis de informalidade. O trabalho é concluído reenfatizando as principais ações que poderiam ser priorizadas nas diversas áreas - regulamentação, judiciário, tributária, crédito, todas objetivando melhorar a produtividade das MPME.

Respostas morfogênicas e estruturais de gramíneas tropicais em regime de corte no nordeste brasileiro

The production of forage grasses is directly related to the morphogenesis. The knowledge of the morphogenetic and structural variables of forage plants is important for determining appropriate conditions of grazing livestock to ensure efficient and sustainable. Thus the objective of this study was to evaluate morphogenetic and structural responses of three genera of grasses, Brachiaria, Panicum and Cenchrus in a cutting regime. The experimental design was randomized blocks with three replications and six treatments. After each section were evaluated for forage production, appearance and elongation rates of leaves and stem, phyllochron, final leaf length, number of living leaves, leaf lifespan, leaf senescence rate, tiller density and tiller dynamics. On forage yield the highest values were obtained in cultivars Xaraes, Piata and Massai. The tiller density was higher for cv Massai. It is concluded that the cultivars of Panicum and Brachiaria had a higher tillering dynamics in increasing the turnover rate of tissues that are indicators of forage production, assuming that the cultivars of these genera are predisposed to use forage in the Northeast

Seed maturation and effect of temperature regime on Trema micrantha (L.) Blume seed germination

T. micrantha (L.) Blume (Ulmaceae), a common pioneer tree species in Brazil, is used in the restoration of degraded areas. The fruits are fleshy and indehiscent, with only one water impermeable seed. During the fruiting period, fruits of different colours are found at the same time on the same branch. This research aimed to correlate fruit colour with other physical indicators of seed maturity and to Verify the effect of temperature regime on seed germination. Collected fruits were separated in to green, green-red and red colour and for each of these maturation stages, size, moisture content and dry matter of both fruits and seeds were determined. Seeds were scarified with sulphuric acid and submitted to a germination test conducted at constant (20 degreesC, 30 degreesC and 40 degreesC) and alternating (20-30 degreesC, 30-40 degreesC and 20-40 degreesC) temperatures for 15 weeks. Seed germination percentage and speed were analysed after five weeks and the fmal percentage of germinated and Viable seeds after 15 weeks. Seed maturity is attained when the fruits are green-red. At this stage, moisture content was about 64% for fruits and 10% for seeds. Alternating temperature was required for seed germination and 20-30 degreesC was the best option. Most seeds had germinated after five weeks, providing mature seeds, acid scarification and alternating temperature were used.

Foraminifera, thecamoebians and palynomorphs as hydrodynamic indicators in Araguari Estuary, Amazonian Coast, Amapá State - Brazil

O regime de macromaré e a pororoca controlam a dinâmica estuarina do Araguari, na qual é muito diferente dos modelos tradicionais dos estuários sob este regime de maré. Objetivando estabelecer zonas estuarinas no Araguari com base em assembléias de foraminíferos, tecamebas, palinomorfos e parâmetros físico-químicos, foram estabelecidas dezesseis estações amostrais ao longo do estuário. A turbidez e a temperatura foram os parâmetros ambientais que permitiram determinar gradiente estuarino. Dezoito espécies de foraminíferos, dez espécies de tecamebas e quatorze espécies de palinomorfos foram identificadas. A análise de agrupamento em modo-R mostrou a existência de assembléias de foraminíferos e quatro de palinomorfos. A análise em CCA demonstrou que a turbidez e a matéria orgânica como os parâmetros de maior influência na distribuição dos foraminíferos tecamebas no Araguari. A análise de agrupamento em Modo-Q usando todos os dados formou quarto grupos de estações que sugerem a existência de três zonas estuarinas: Zona I - composta por tecamebas e palinomorfos continentais; Zona II - compostas por foraminíferos de manguezal, acritacos e todas as assembléias de palinomorfos; e Zona III - composta por foraminíferos de manguezal e estuarinos e por todas as assembléias de palinomorfos.

Comportamento individual de bovinos Nelore e relações com desempenho em regime de confinamento e reprodução

Pós-graduação em Zootecnia - FCAV

Catastrophic regime shift in water reservoirs and São Paulo water supply crisis

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Temporal Differences in the Hydrologic Regime of the Lower Platte River, Nebraska, 1895–2006

In cooperation with the Lower Platte South Natural Resources District for a collaborative study of the cumulative effects of water and channel management practices on stream and riparian ecology, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) compiled, analyzed, and summarized hydrologic information from long-term gaging stations on the lower Platte River to determine any significant temporal differences among six discrete periods during 1895-2006 and to interpret any significant changes in relation to changes in climatic conditions or other factors. A subset of 171 examined hydrologic indices (HIs) were selected for use as indices that (1) included most of the variance in the larger set of indices, (2) retained utility as indicators of the streamflow regime, and (3) provided information at spatial and temporal scale(s) that were most indicative of streamflow regime(s). The study included the most downstream station within the central Platte River segment that flowed to the confluence with the Loup River and all four active streamflow-gaging stations (2006) on the lower Platte River main stem extending from the confluence of the Loup River and Platte River to the confluence of the Platte River and Missouri River south of Omaha. The drainage areas of the five streamflow-gaging stations covered four (of eight) climate divisions in Nebraska—division 2 (north central), 3 (northeast), 5 (central), and 6 (east central).

An economy with unrealistic indicators: an evaluation of the economic situation in Belarus and a forecast for 2013. OSW Commentary No. 103, 2013-02-20

The macroeconomic results achieved by Belarus in 2012 laid bare the weakness and the inefficiency of its economy. Belarus’s GDP and positive trade balance were growing in the first half of last year. However, this trend was reversed when Russia blocked the scheme of extremely lucrative manipulations in the re-export of Russian petroleum products by Belarus and when the demand for potassium fertilisers fell on the global market. It became clear once again that the outdated Belarusian model of a centrally planned economy is unable to generate sustainable growth, and the Belarusian economy needs thorough structural reforms. Nevertheless, President Alyaksandr Lukashenka consistently continues to block any changes in the system and at the same time expects that the economic indicators this year will reach levels far beyond the possibilities of the Belarusian economy. Therefore, there is a risk that the Belarusian government may employ – as they used to do – instruments aimed at artificially stimulating domestic demand, including money creation. This may upset the relative stability of state finances, which the regime managed to achieve last year. The worst case scenario would see a repeat of what happened in 2011, when a serious financial crisis occurred, forcing Minsk to make concessions (including selling the national network of gas pipelines) to Moscow, its only real source of loans. It thus cannot be ruled out that also this time the only way to recover from the slump will be to receive additional loan support and energy subsidies from Russia at the expense of selling further strategic companies to Russian investors.

Ecological indicators for assessing and communicating seagrass status and trends in Florida Bay

A suite of seagrass indicator metrics is developed to evaluate four essential measures of seagrass community status for Florida Bay. The measures are based on several years of monitoring data using the Braun-Blanquet Cover Abundance (BBCA) scale to derive information about seagrass spatial extent, abundance, species diversity and presence of target species. As ecosystem restoration proceeds in south Florida, additional freshwater will be discharged to Florida Bay as a means to restore the bay's hydrology and salinity regime. Primary hypotheses about restoring ecological function of the keystone seagrass community are based on the premise that hydrologic restoration will increase environmental variability and reduce hypersalinity. This will create greater niche space and permit multiple seagrass species to co-exist while maintaining good environmental conditions for Thalassia testudinum, the dominant climax seagrass species. Greater species diversity is considered beneficial to habitat for desired higher trophic level species such as forage fish and shrimp. It is also important to maintenance of a viable seagrass community that will avoid die-off events observed in the past. Indicator metrics are assigned values at the basin spatial scale and are aggregated to five larger zones. Three index metrics are derived by combining the four indicators through logic gates at the zone spatial scale and aggregated to derive a single bay-wide system status score standardized on the System-wide Indicator protocol. The indicators will provide a way to assess progress toward restoration goals or reveal areas of concern. Reporting for each indicator, index and overall system status score is presented in a red–yellow–green format that summarizes information in a readily accessible form for mangers, policy-makers and stakeholders in planning and implementing an adaptive management strategy.

Regime jurídico do alojamento local: a problemática dos imóveis arrendados de particulares e dos respetivos rendimento não declarados

Dissertação de Mestrado, Fiscalidade, Escola Superior de Gestão, Hotelaria e Turismo, Universidade do Algarve, 2016

Biochemical, Anthropometric And Body Composition Indicators As Predictors Of Hepatic Steatosis In Obese Adolescents.

To describe the prevalence of hepatic steatosis and to assess the performance of biochemical, anthropometric and body composition indicators for hepatic steatosis in obese teenagers. Cross-sectional study including 79 adolecents aged from ten to 18 years old. Hepatic steatosis was diagnosed by abdominal ultrasound in case of moderate or intense hepatorenal contrast and/or a difference in the histogram ≥7 on the right kidney cortex. The insulin resistance was determined by the Homeostasis Model Assessment-Insulin Resistance (HOMA-IR) index for values >3.16. Anthropometric and body composition indicators consisted of body mass index, body fat percentage, abdominal circumference and subcutaneous fat. Fasting glycemia and insulin, lipid profile and hepatic enzymes, such as aspartate aminotransferase, alanine aminotransferase, gamma-glutamyltransferase and alkaline phosphatase, were also evaluated. In order to assess the performance of these indicators in the diagnosis of hepatic steatosis in teenagers, a ROC curve analysis was applied. Hepatic steatosis was found in 20% of the patients and insulin resistance, in 29%. Gamma-glutamyltransferase and HOMA-IR were good indicators for predicting hepatic steatosis, with a cutoff of 1.06 times above the reference value for gamma-glutamyltransferase and 3.28 times for the HOMA-IR. The anthropometric indicators, the body fat percentage, the lipid profile, the glycemia and the aspartate aminotransferase did not present significant associations. Patients with high gamma-glutamyltransferase level and/or HOMA-IR should be submitted to abdominal ultrasound examination due to the increased chance of having hepatic steatosis.

Risk indicators for aggressive periodontitis in an untreated isolated young population from Brazil

This study aimed to assess the prevalence of aggressive periodontitis (AgP), and to investigate the association between demographic, socioeconomic and behavioral risk indicators with AgP in an untreated and isolated young population in Southeastern Brazil. For this cross-sectional survey, 134 subjects aged 12-29 years were selected by a census. Of those eligible, 101 subjects received a full-mouth clinical examination, and were interviewed using a structured written questionnaire. Cases were defined as individuals with 4 or more teeth with attachment loss > 4 mm or > 5 mm in the age groups 12-19 and 20-29, respectively. Overall, 9.9% of the subjects presented AgP (10.3% of the 12-19-year-olds and 9.7% of the 20-29-year-olds). The only risk indicator significantly associated with AgP in this isolated population was a high proportion of sites (> 30%) presenting supragingival calculus [OR = 23.2]. Having experienced an urgency dental treatment was a protective factor for AgP [OR = 0.1]. The authors concluded that this isolated and untreated population from Brazil presented a high prevalence of AgP. Local plaque-retaining factors played a major role in the prevalence of AgP in this isolated population, and should be included in further studies evaluating this destructive periodontal disease form.