Getting the carry trade's jackpot

This Working Project studies five portfolios of currency carry trades formed with the G10 currencies. Performance varies among strategies and the most basic one presents the worst results. I also study the equity and Pure FX risk factors which can explain the portfolios’ returns. Equity factors do not explain these returns while the Pure FX do for some of the strategies. Downside risk measures indicate the importance of using regime indicators to avoid losses. I conclude that although using VAR and threshold regression models with a variety of regime indicators do not allow the perception of different regimes, with a defined exogenous threshold on real exchange rates, an indicator of liquidity and the volatilities of the spot exchange rates it is possible to increase the average returns and reduce drawdowns of the carry trades

Business cycle dynamics with duration dependence and leading indicators

Durland and McCurdy [Durland, J.M., McCurdy, T.H., 1994. Duration-dependent transitions in a Markov model of US GNP growth. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 12, 279–288] investigated the issue of duration dependence in US business cycle phases using a Markov regime-switching approach, introduced by Hamilton [Hamilton, J., 1989. A new approach to the analysis of time series and the business cycle. Econometrica 57, 357–384] and extended to the case of variable transition parameters by Filardo [Filardo, A.J., 1994. Business cycle phases and their transitional dynamics. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 12, 299–308]. In Durland and McCurdy’s model duration alone was used as an explanatory variable of the transition probabilities. They found that recessions were duration dependent whilst expansions were not. In this paper, we explicitly incorporate the widely-accepted US business cycle phase change dates as determined by the NBER, and use a state-dependent multinomial Logit modelling framework. The model incorporates both duration and movements in two leading indexes – one designed to have a short lead (SLI) and the other designed to have a longer lead (LLI) – as potential explanatory variables. We find that doing so suggests that current duration is not only a significant determinant of transition out of recessions, but that there is some evidence that it is also weakly significant in the case of expansions. Furthermore, we find that SLI has more informational content for the termination of recessions whilst LLI does so for expansions.

Report of the Study Group on “ Fisheries and Ecosystem Response to Recent Regime Shifts”

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1. DECADAL-SCALE CLIMATE EVENTS 1.1 Introduction 1.2 Basin-scale Patterns 1.3 Long Time Series in the North Pacific 1.4 Decadal Climate Variability in Ecological Regions of the North Pacific 1.5 Mechanisms 1.6 References 2. COHERENT REGIONAL RESPONSES 2.1 Introduction 2.2 Central North Pacific (CNP) 2.3 California Current System (CCS) 2.4 Gulf of Alaska (GOA) 2.5 Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands 2.6 Western North Pacific (WNP) 2.7 Coherence in Regional Responses to the 1998 Regime Shift 2.8 Climate Indicators for Detecting Regime Shifts 2.9 References 3. IMPLICATIONS FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF MARINE RESOURCES 3.1 Introduction 3.2 Response Time of Biota to Regime Shifts 3.3 Response Time of Management to Regime Shifts 3.4 Provision of Stock Assessment Advice 3.5 Decision Rules 3.6 References 4. SUGGESTED LITERATURE 4.1 Climate Regimes 4.2 Impacts on Lower Trophic Levels 4.3 Impacts on Fish and Higher Trophic Levels 4.4 Impacts on Ecosystems and Possible Mechanisms 4.5 Regimes and Fisheries Management APPENDIX 1: RECENT ECOSYSTEM CHANGES IN THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC A1.1 Introduction A1.2 Physical Oceanography A1.3 Lower Trophic Levels A1.4 Invertebrates A1.5 Fishes A1.6 References APPENDIX 2: RECENT ECOSYSTEM CHANGES IN THE CALIFORNIA CURRENT SYSTEM A2.1 Introduction A2.2 Physical Oceanography A2.3 Lower Trophic Levels A2.4 Invertebrates A2.5 Fishes A2.6 References APPENDIX 3: RECENT ECOSYSTEM CHANGES IN THE GULF OF ALASKA A3.1 Introduction A3.2 Physical Oceanography A3.3 Lower Trophic Levels A3.4 Invertebrates A3.5 Fishes A3.6 Higher Trophic Levels A3.7 Coherence in Gulf of Alaska Fish A3.8 Combined Standardized Indices of Recruitment and Survival Rate A3.9 References APPENDIX 4: RECENT ECOSYSTEM CHANGES IN THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIAN ISLANDS A4.1 Introduction A4.2 Bering Sea Environmental Variables and Physical Oceanography A4.3 Bering Sea Lower Trophic Levels A4.4 Bering Sea Invertebrates A4.5 Bering Sea Fishes A4.6 Bering Sea Higher Trophic Levels A4.7 Coherence in Bering Sea Fish Responses A4.8 Combined Standardized Indices of Bering Fish Recruitment and Survival Rate A4.9 Aleutian Islands A4.10 References APPENDIX 5: RECENT ECOSYSTEM CHANGES IN THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC A5.1 Introduction A5.2 Sea of Okhotsk A5.3 Tsushima Current Region and Kuroshio/Oyashio Current Region A5.4 Bohai Sea, Yellow Sea, and East China Sea A5.5 References (168 page document)

The Mediterranean Sea Regime Shift at the End of the 1980s, and Intriguing Parallelisms with Other European Basins

Regime shifts are abrupt changes encompassing a multitude of physical properties and ecosystem variables, which lead to new regime conditions. Recent investigations focus on the changes in ecosystem diversity and functioning associated to such shifts. Of particular interest, because of the implication on climate drivers, are shifts that occur synchronously in separated basins. In this work we analyze and review long-term records of Mediterranean ecological and hydro-climate variables and find that all point to a synchronous change in the late 1980s. A quantitative synthesis of the literature (including observed oceanic data, models and satellite analyses) shows that these years mark a major change in Mediterranean hydrographic properties, surface circulation, and deep water convection (the Eastern Mediterranean Transient). We provide novel analyses that link local, regional and basin scale hydrological properties with two major indicators of large scale climate, the North Atlantic Oscillation index and the Northern Hemisphere Temperature index, suggesting that the Mediterranean shift is part of a large scale change in the Northern Hemisphere. We provide a simplified scheme of the different effects of climate vs. temperature on pelagic ecosystems.

Monitoring marine plankton ecosystems: Identification of the most relevant indicators of the state of an ecosystem

The number of variables involved in the monitoring of an ecosystem can be high and often one of the first stages in the analysis is to reduce the number of variables. We describe a method developed for geological purposes, using the information theory, that enables selection of the most relevant variables. This technique also allows the examination of the asymmetrical relationships between variables. Applied to a set of physical and biological variables (plankton assemblages in four areas of the North Sea), the method shows that biological variables are more informative than physical variables although the controlling factors are mainly physical (sea surface temperature in winter and spring). Among biological variables, diversity measures and warm-water species assemblages are informative for the state of the North Sea pelagic ecosystems while among physical variables sea surface temperature in late winter and early spring are highly informative. Although often used in bioclimatology, the utilisation of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index does not seem to provide a lot of information. The method reveals that only the extreme states of this index has an influence on North Sea pelagic ecosystems. The substantial and persistent changes that were detected in the dynamic regime of the North Sea ecosystems and called regime shift are detected by the method and corresponds to the timing of other shifts described in the literature for some European Systems such as the Baltic and the Mediterranean Sea when both physical and biological variables are considered.

Covariance among North Sea ecosystem state indicators during the past 50 years - contrasts between coastal and open waters

Regime shift and principal component analysis of a spatially disaggregated database capturing time-series of climatic, nutrient and plankton variables in the North Sea revealed considerable covariance between groups of ecosystem indicators. Plankton and climate time-series span the period 1958–2003, those of nutrients start in 1980. In both regions, the period from 1989 to 2001 identified in principal component 1 had warmer surface waters, higher Atlantic inflow and stronger winds, than the periods before or after. However, it was preceded by a regime shift in both open (PC2) and coastal (PC3) waters during 1977 towards more hours of sunlight and higher water temperature, which lasted until 1997. The relative influence of nutrient availability and climatic forcing differed between open and coastal North Sea regions. Inter-annual variability in phytoplankton dynamics of the open North Sea was primarily regulated by climatic forcing, specifically by sea surface temperature, Atlantic inflow and co-varying wind stress and NAO. Coastal phytoplankton variability, however, was regulated by insolation and sea surface temperature, as well as Si availability, but not by N or P. Regime shifts in principal components of hydrographic and climatic variables (explaining 55 and 61% of the variance in coastal and open water variables) were detected using Rodionov's sequential t-test. These shifts in hydroclimatic variables which occurred around 1977, 1989, 1997 and 2001, were synchronized in open and coastal waters, and were tracked by open water chlorophyll and copepods, but not by coastal plankton. North–central–south or open-coastal spatial breakdowns of the North Sea explained similar amounts of variability in most ecosystem indicators with the exception of diatom abundance and chlorophyll concentration, which were clearly better explained using the open-coastal configuration.

Comparing Poverty Indicators in an Enlarged European Union

In this article, we explore the extent to which a consideration of welfare regime and socioeconomic differences in poverty levels and patterns can assist us in making an informed assessment of alternative poverty indicators. Poverty in the EU is normally defined in terms of income thresholds at the level of each member state. However, with the enlargement of the EU, such measures have come in for increasing criticism. One set of reservation relates to the limitations imposed by an entirely national frame of reference. An alternative critique focuses on the fact that low income is an unreliable indicator of poverty. In this article, we seek to explore the strength of both arguments by comparing the outcomes associated with ‘at risk of poverty’ and consistent poverty at both national and EU levels. Developing an appropriate assessment of poverty levels in the enlarged EU, particularly in periods of rapid change, is likely to require that we make use of a number of indicators none of which capture the full complexity of cross-national poverty outcomes. However, our analysis suggests that if a choice is to be made between the available indicators, the ‘mixed consistent poverty’ indicator developed in this study is best suited to achieving the stated EU objective of assessing the scale of exclusion from minimally acceptable standards of living in individual countries while also measuring the extent to which the whole population of Europe is sharing in the benefits of high average prosperity.

Performance indicators for the physical therapy program’s field academic programs at the Universidad del Rosario for 2004-2007.

Introducción: El programa de Fisioterapia de la Universidad del Rosario, en su responsabilidad social de generar un impacto positivo en la comunidad y en su propósito de formar profesionales, cuenta con los Programas Académicos de Campo (PAC) que se consideran una fuerte estrategia de extensión de la Universidad. Los PAC contribuyen a la adquisición de competencias para el desarrollo de procesos de acción-actuación-creación en los estudiantes para que resuelvan problemas en un espacio real de ejercicio profesional. Bajo esta perspectiva los PAC del programa de Fisioterapia muestran su comportamiento a través de la medición de indicadores de proceso y resultados propuestos desde el Programa con el fin de proveer información útil para la reorientación y permanente actualización de los contenidos programáticos en las asignaturas y en los mismos PAC. Materiales y métodos: En el siguiente artículo se presenta un análisis de los indicadores de demanda por género, régimen de Seguridad Social en Salud, procedimiento y morbilidad de los Programas Académicos de Campo Integral Pediátrico, Integral de Adultos y Rehabilitación cardíaca y/o pulmonar, con el fin de establecer las características de la población objeto de la prestación de los servicios y procurar información verificable que dé soporte para la construcción de procesos de cambio dentro de la dinámica de mejoramiento continuo que debe tener cualquier institución. Este seguimiento es útil para la toma de decisiones de planeación académica que contribuye a mejorar los procesos de planeación y a facilitar el cumplimiento de los propósitos de formación para cada práctica, y de esta manera ayuda a ser elemento de análisis para directivas, instructores y estudiantes en la orientación del proceso de gestión académico-administrativo, y a retroalimentar los procesos de planeación y programación académica. Resultados: Los resultados arrojados en el análisis de los datos de la morbilidad en los programas académicos de campo muestran el siguiente comportamiento durante los años 2004, 2005, 2006 y 2007. Conclusiones: En el PAC pediátrico la mayor incidencia es de asma con un 37,2% y la más baja incidencia es para luxación congénita de cadera y enfermedad mental de origen central con un 0,1%. El 58% de los usuarios es de género masculino, y el 81% del total pertenece al régimen contributivo. En la morbilidad del PAC de adultos la mayor incidencia es de EPOC, con un 23,2%, y la menor incidencia es de lumbalgia, con un 2,4%. La mayoría de usuarios atendidos (58%) son hombres, y el 58% de los usuarios pertenece al régimen contributivo. En el PAC de rehabilitación cardíaca y/o pulmonar la mayor incidencia fue de EPOC, con un 40%; seguido de neumonía, con 17%; y con una menor incidencia para asma, con un 2%. El 54% de los usuarios son hombres y el 91% del total pertenece al régimen subsidiado.

MPME- Qual o tratamento mais adequado - regime diferenciado como forma de redução da informalidade?

Este trabalho analisa o papel das micro , pequenas e médias empresas no Brasil, sua importância na geração de rendas e empregos e compara os principais indicadores desse segmento com o de outros países. O trabalho faz uma análise dos principais problemas que dificultam o desenvolvimento das MPME, evidencia o que já foi feito e sugere que as políticas públicas priorizem a melhoria da competitividade das empresas, através da redução dos obstáculos causados pela excessiva regulamentação, dificuldades de acesso a financiamentos de médio e de longo prazos e através de programas e incentivos visando a melhoria da gestão das mesmas. O trabalho evidencia a importância e a evolução dos Distritos Industriais ( APL's) no Brasil, por muitos considerado como uma alternativa de fortalecimento das MPME e de desenvolvimento regional. É feita uma análise dos principais indicadores da economia informal e como algumas medidas de políticas públicas poderiam colaborar para redução dos atuais níveis de informalidade. O trabalho é concluído reenfatizando as principais ações que poderiam ser priorizadas nas diversas áreas - regulamentação, judiciário, tributária, crédito, todas objetivando melhorar a produtividade das MPME.

Respostas morfogênicas e estruturais de gramíneas tropicais em regime de corte no nordeste brasileiro

The production of forage grasses is directly related to the morphogenesis. The knowledge of the morphogenetic and structural variables of forage plants is important for determining appropriate conditions of grazing livestock to ensure efficient and sustainable. Thus the objective of this study was to evaluate morphogenetic and structural responses of three genera of grasses, Brachiaria, Panicum and Cenchrus in a cutting regime. The experimental design was randomized blocks with three replications and six treatments. After each section were evaluated for forage production, appearance and elongation rates of leaves and stem, phyllochron, final leaf length, number of living leaves, leaf lifespan, leaf senescence rate, tiller density and tiller dynamics. On forage yield the highest values were obtained in cultivars Xaraes, Piata and Massai. The tiller density was higher for cv Massai. It is concluded that the cultivars of Panicum and Brachiaria had a higher tillering dynamics in increasing the turnover rate of tissues that are indicators of forage production, assuming that the cultivars of these genera are predisposed to use forage in the Northeast

Seed maturation and effect of temperature regime on Trema micrantha (L.) Blume seed germination

T. micrantha (L.) Blume (Ulmaceae), a common pioneer tree species in Brazil, is used in the restoration of degraded areas. The fruits are fleshy and indehiscent, with only one water impermeable seed. During the fruiting period, fruits of different colours are found at the same time on the same branch. This research aimed to correlate fruit colour with other physical indicators of seed maturity and to Verify the effect of temperature regime on seed germination. Collected fruits were separated in to green, green-red and red colour and for each of these maturation stages, size, moisture content and dry matter of both fruits and seeds were determined. Seeds were scarified with sulphuric acid and submitted to a germination test conducted at constant (20 degreesC, 30 degreesC and 40 degreesC) and alternating (20-30 degreesC, 30-40 degreesC and 20-40 degreesC) temperatures for 15 weeks. Seed germination percentage and speed were analysed after five weeks and the fmal percentage of germinated and Viable seeds after 15 weeks. Seed maturity is attained when the fruits are green-red. At this stage, moisture content was about 64% for fruits and 10% for seeds. Alternating temperature was required for seed germination and 20-30 degreesC was the best option. Most seeds had germinated after five weeks, providing mature seeds, acid scarification and alternating temperature were used.

Foraminifera, thecamoebians and palynomorphs as hydrodynamic indicators in Araguari Estuary, Amazonian Coast, Amapá State - Brazil

O regime de macromaré e a pororoca controlam a dinâmica estuarina do Araguari, na qual é muito diferente dos modelos tradicionais dos estuários sob este regime de maré. Objetivando estabelecer zonas estuarinas no Araguari com base em assembléias de foraminíferos, tecamebas, palinomorfos e parâmetros físico-químicos, foram estabelecidas dezesseis estações amostrais ao longo do estuário. A turbidez e a temperatura foram os parâmetros ambientais que permitiram determinar gradiente estuarino. Dezoito espécies de foraminíferos, dez espécies de tecamebas e quatorze espécies de palinomorfos foram identificadas. A análise de agrupamento em modo-R mostrou a existência de assembléias de foraminíferos e quatro de palinomorfos. A análise em CCA demonstrou que a turbidez e a matéria orgânica como os parâmetros de maior influência na distribuição dos foraminíferos tecamebas no Araguari. A análise de agrupamento em Modo-Q usando todos os dados formou quarto grupos de estações que sugerem a existência de três zonas estuarinas: Zona I - composta por tecamebas e palinomorfos continentais; Zona II - compostas por foraminíferos de manguezal, acritacos e todas as assembléias de palinomorfos; e Zona III - composta por foraminíferos de manguezal e estuarinos e por todas as assembléias de palinomorfos.

Comportamento individual de bovinos Nelore e relações com desempenho em regime de confinamento e reprodução

Pós-graduação em Zootecnia - FCAV

Catastrophic regime shift in water reservoirs and São Paulo water supply crisis

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Temporal Differences in the Hydrologic Regime of the Lower Platte River, Nebraska, 1895–2006

In cooperation with the Lower Platte South Natural Resources District for a collaborative study of the cumulative effects of water and channel management practices on stream and riparian ecology, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) compiled, analyzed, and summarized hydrologic information from long-term gaging stations on the lower Platte River to determine any significant temporal differences among six discrete periods during 1895-2006 and to interpret any significant changes in relation to changes in climatic conditions or other factors. A subset of 171 examined hydrologic indices (HIs) were selected for use as indices that (1) included most of the variance in the larger set of indices, (2) retained utility as indicators of the streamflow regime, and (3) provided information at spatial and temporal scale(s) that were most indicative of streamflow regime(s). The study included the most downstream station within the central Platte River segment that flowed to the confluence with the Loup River and all four active streamflow-gaging stations (2006) on the lower Platte River main stem extending from the confluence of the Loup River and Platte River to the confluence of the Platte River and Missouri River south of Omaha. The drainage areas of the five streamflow-gaging stations covered four (of eight) climate divisions in Nebraska—division 2 (north central), 3 (northeast), 5 (central), and 6 (east central).