Identification of reduced models of power system areas using phasor measurement units

In this paper an approach is presented for identification of a reduced model for coherent areas in power systems using phasor measurement units to represent the inter-area oscillations of the system. The generators which are coherent in a wide range of operating conditions form the areas in power systems and the reduced model is obtained by representing each area by an equivalent machine. The reduced nonlinear model is then identified based on the data obtained from measurement units. The simulation is performed on three test systems and the obtained results show high accuracy of identification process.

Thermal comfort in reduced models of broilers' houses, under different types of roofing materials

Esta pesquisa foi conduzida com o objetivo de avaliar diferentes tipos de coberturas em instalações para aves, por meio do Índice de Temperatura de Globo Negro e Umidade (ITGU), Carga Térmica de Radiação (CTR) e Entalpia (H). O experimento foi conduzido na Universidade Estadual de Goiás, entre os meses de abril e maio de 2011, sendo composto por cinco tratamentos (coberturas): CA -Telha de cimento-amianto; BA -Telha de bambu; BAP -Telha de bambu pintada de branco; FB -Telha de fibra vegetal e betume; FBP -Telha de fibra vegetal e betume pintada de branco, com 15 repetições, sendo as repetições os dias de medição. Dentre os horários estudados, o considerado menos confortável foi às 14h, sendo que a cobertura de fibra vegetal e betume foi a que apresentou maior valor de ITGU (84,1) quando comparada às demais coberturas, caracterizando uma situação de menor conforto térmico, não sendo observada diferença para CTR e H entre os tratamentos na região estudada.

Evaluation of roof slope and exposure with different roofing materials in reduced models of animal production facilities in spring and summer

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Reduced models of chemical reaction in chaotic flows

We describe and evaluate two reduced models for nonlinear chemical reactions in a chaotic laminar flow. Each model involves two separate steps to compute the chemical composition at a given location and time. The “manifold tracking model” first tracks backwards in time a segment of the stable manifold of the requisite point. This then provides a sample of the initial conditions appropriate for the second step, which requires solving one-dimensional problems for the reaction in Lagrangian coordinates. By contrast, the first step of the “branching trajectories model” simulates both the advection and diffusion of fluid particles that terminate at the appropriate point; the chemical reaction equations are then solved along each of the branched trajectories in a second step. Results from each model are compared with full numerical simulations of the reaction processes in a chaotic laminar flow.

A reduced model clarifies the role of feedback loops and time delays in the Drosophila circadian oscillator.

Although several detailed models of molecular processes essential for circadian oscillations have been developed, their complexity makes intuitive understanding of the oscillation mechanism difficult. The goal of the present study was to reduce a previously developed, detailed model to a minimal representation of the transcriptional regulation essential for circadian rhythmicity in Drosophila. The reduced model contains only two differential equations, each with time delays. A negative feedback loop is included, in which PER protein represses per transcription by binding the dCLOCK transcription factor. A positive feedback loop is also included, in which dCLOCK indirectly enhances its own formation. The model simulated circadian oscillations, light entrainment, and a phase-response curve with qualitative similarities to experiment. Time delays were found to be essential for simulation of circadian oscillations with this model. To examine the robustness of the simplified model to fluctuations in molecule numbers, a stochastic variant was constructed. Robust circadian oscillations and entrainment to light pulses were simulated with fewer than 80 molecules of each gene product present on average. Circadian oscillations persisted when the positive feedback loop was removed. Moreover, elimination of positive feedback did not decrease the robustness of oscillations to stochastic fluctuations or to variations in parameter values. Such reduced models can aid understanding of the oscillation mechanisms in Drosophila and in other organisms in which feedback regulation of transcription may play an important role.

THE NATURAL AND ORTHOGONAL INTERACTION (NOIA) MODELS FOR QUANTITATIVE TRAITS (QTs) AND COMPLEX DISEASES

My dissertation focuses on developing methods for gene-gene/environment interactions and imprinting effect detections for human complex diseases and quantitative traits. It includes three sections: (1) generalizing the Natural and Orthogonal interaction (NOIA) model for the coding technique originally developed for gene-gene (GxG) interaction and also to reduced models; (2) developing a novel statistical approach that allows for modeling gene-environment (GxE) interactions influencing disease risk, and (3) developing a statistical approach for modeling genetic variants displaying parent-of-origin effects (POEs), such as imprinting. In the past decade, genetic researchers have identified a large number of causal variants for human genetic diseases and traits by single-locus analysis, and interaction has now become a hot topic in the effort to search for the complex network between multiple genes or environmental exposures contributing to the outcome. Epistasis, also known as gene-gene interaction is the departure from additive genetic effects from several genes to a trait, which means that the same alleles of one gene could display different genetic effects under different genetic backgrounds. In this study, we propose to implement the NOIA model for association studies along with interaction for human complex traits and diseases. We compare the performance of the new statistical models we developed and the usual functional model by both simulation study and real data analysis. Both simulation and real data analysis revealed higher power of the NOIA GxG interaction model for detecting both main genetic effects and interaction effects. Through application on a melanoma dataset, we confirmed the previously identified significant regions for melanoma risk at 15q13.1, 16q24.3 and 9p21.3. We also identified potential interactions with these significant regions that contribute to melanoma risk. Based on the NOIA model, we developed a novel statistical approach that allows us to model effects from a genetic factor and binary environmental exposure that are jointly influencing disease risk. Both simulation and real data analyses revealed higher power of the NOIA model for detecting both main genetic effects and interaction effects for both quantitative and binary traits. We also found that estimates of the parameters from logistic regression for binary traits are no longer statistically uncorrelated under the alternative model when there is an association. Applying our novel approach to a lung cancer dataset, we confirmed four SNPs in 5p15 and 15q25 region to be significantly associated with lung cancer risk in Caucasians population: rs2736100, rs402710, rs16969968 and rs8034191. We also validated that rs16969968 and rs8034191 in 15q25 region are significantly interacting with smoking in Caucasian population. Our approach identified the potential interactions of SNP rs2256543 in 6p21 with smoking on contributing to lung cancer risk. Genetic imprinting is the most well-known cause for parent-of-origin effect (POE) whereby a gene is differentially expressed depending on the parental origin of the same alleles. Genetic imprinting affects several human disorders, including diabetes, breast cancer, alcoholism, and obesity. This phenomenon has been shown to be important for normal embryonic development in mammals. Traditional association approaches ignore this important genetic phenomenon. In this study, we propose a NOIA framework for a single locus association study that estimates both main allelic effects and POEs. We develop statistical (Stat-POE) and functional (Func-POE) models, and demonstrate conditions for orthogonality of the Stat-POE model. We conducted simulations for both quantitative and qualitative traits to evaluate the performance of the statistical and functional models with different levels of POEs. Our results showed that the newly proposed Stat-POE model, which ensures orthogonality of variance components if Hardy-Weinberg Equilibrium (HWE) or equal minor and major allele frequencies is satisfied, had greater power for detecting the main allelic additive effect than a Func-POE model, which codes according to allelic substitutions, for both quantitative and qualitative traits. The power for detecting the POE was the same for the Stat-POE and Func-POE models under HWE for quantitative traits.

Towards the systematic simplification of mechanistic models

Mechanistic models used for prediction should be parsimonious, as models which are over-parameterised may have poor predictive performance. Determining whether a model is parsimonious requires comparisons with alternative model formulations with differing levels of complexity. However, creating alternative formulations for large mechanistic models is often problematic, and usually time-consuming. Consequently, few are ever investigated. In this paper, we present an approach which rapidly generates reduced model formulations by replacing a model’s variables with constants. These reduced alternatives can be compared to the original model, using data based model selection criteria, to assist in the identification of potentially unnecessary model complexity, and thereby inform reformulation of the model. To illustrate the approach, we present its application to a published radiocaesium plant-uptake model, which predicts uptake on the basis of soil characteristics (e.g. pH, organic matter content, clay content). A total of 1024 reduced model formulations were generated, and ranked according to five model selection criteria: Residual Sum of Squares (RSS), AICc, BIC, MDL and ICOMP. The lowest scores for RSS and AICc occurred for the same reduced model in which pH dependent model components were replaced. The lowest scores for BIC, MDL and ICOMP occurred for a further reduced model in which model components related to the distinction between adsorption on clay and organic surfaces were replaced. Both these reduced models had a lower RSS for the parameterisation dataset than the original model. As a test of their predictive performance, the original model and the two reduced models outlined above were used to predict an independent dataset. The reduced models have lower prediction sums of squares than the original model, suggesting that the latter may be overfitted. The approach presented has the potential to inform model development by rapidly creating a class of alternative model formulations, which can be compared.

THE ADSORPTION OF O2 ON FESI SURFACES

The initial adsorption stages and the interaction of oxygen on FeSi surfaces have been studied as a function of exposure and annealing temperature using a variety of techniques including HREELS, AES, LEED, XPS and UPS. O2 was found to adsorb dissociatively on the FeSi surfaces at room temperature. The whole adsorption process can be divided into four stages. Heating promotes the oxidation of Si, and a thin SiO2 overlayer is formed on the surface when annealed at 450-degrees-C, while all FeOx species are reduced. Models for adsorbed atomic O on the FeSi(100) surface exposed to different oxygen exposures have been put forward to account for the observed experimental results.

Framingham risk prediction equations for incidence of cardiovascular disease using detailed measures for smoking

Current prediction models for risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) incidence incorporate smoking as a dichotomous yes/no measure. However, the risk of CVD associated with smoking also varies with the intensity and duration of smoking and there is a strong association between time since quitting and the risk of disease onset. This study aims to develop improved risk prediction equations for CVD incidence incorporating intensity and duration of smoking and time since quitting. The risk of developing a first CVD event was evaluated using a Cox’s model for participants in the Framingham offspring cohort who attended the fourth examination (1988–92) between the ages of 30 and 74 years and were free of CVD (n=3751). The full models based on the smoking variables and other risk factors, and reduced models based on the smoking variables and non-laboratory risk factors demonstrated good discrimination, calibration and global fit. The incorporation of both time since quitting among past smokers and pack-years among current smokers resulted in better predictive performance as compared to a dichotomous current/non-smoker measure and a current/quitter/never smoker measure. Compared to never smokers, the risk of CVD incidence increased with pack-years. Risk among those quitting more than five years prior to the baseline exam and within five years prior to the baseline exam were similar and twice as high as that of never smokers. A CVD risk equation incorporating the effects of pack-years and time since quitting provides an improved tool to quantify risk and guide preventive care.

Aplicação da resistividade e cargabilidade em estudos de contaminação de sedimentos por derivados de hidrocarbonetos

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Solitons, τ-functions and hamiltonian reduction for non-Abelian conformal affine Toda theories

We consider the Hamiltonian reduction of the two-loop Wess-Zumino-Novikov-Witten model (WZNW) based on an untwisted affine Kac-Moody algebra script Ĝ. The resulting reduced models, called Generalized Non-Abelian Conformal Affine Toda (G-CAT), are conformally invariant and a wide class of them possesses soliton solutions; these models constitute non-Abelian generalizations of the conformal affine Toda models. Their general solution is constructed by the Leznov-Saveliev method. Moreover, the dressing transformations leading to the solutions in the orbit of the vacuum are considered in detail, as well as the τ-functions, which are defined for any integrable highest weight representation of script Ĝ, irrespectively of its particular realization. When the conformal symmetry is spontaneously broken, the G-CAT model becomes a generalized affine Toda model, whose soliton solutions are constructed. Their masses are obtained exploring the spontaneous breakdown of the conformal symmetry, and their relation to the fundamental particle masses is discussed. We also introduce what we call the two-loop Virasoro algebra, describing extended symmetries of the two-loop WZNW models.

Optimal Boussinesq model for shallow-water waves interacting with a microstructure

In this paper, we consider the propagation of water waves in a long-wave asymptotic regime, when the bottom topography is periodic on a short length scale. We perform a multiscale asymptotic analysis of the full potential theory model and of a family of reduced Boussinesq systems parametrized by a free parameter that is the depth at which the velocity is evaluated. We obtain explicit expressions for the coefficients of the resulting effective Korteweg-de Vries (KdV) equations. We show that it is possible to choose the free parameter of the reduced model so as to match the KdV limits of the full and reduced models. Hence the reduced model is optimal regarding the embedded linear weakly dispersive and weakly nonlinear characteristics of the underlying physical problem, which has a microstructure. We also discuss the impact of the rough bottom on the effective wave propagation. In particular, nonlinearity is enhanced and we can distinguish two regimes depending on the period of the bottom where the dispersion is either enhanced or reduced compared to the flat bottom case. © 2007 The American Physical Society.

Avaliação de diferentes inclinações e exposições de telhado em três tipos de cobertura em modelos reduzidos de instalações zootécnicas

The present study was developed in Departamentos de Engenharia Rural e Morfologia e Fisiologia Animal da FCAV/Unesp. The objective of evaluating different roof slopes and exposure in three types of coverage in models of animal installations. Project 48 built reduced models of wood were used with dimensions of 1,00 x 1,00 x 0,50 meters. The covering was one water, lateral and wood floor, disposed in the exhibitions North-south, being 24 prototypes in the north exhibition and 24 in the south. Were used in the covering roofs of ceramic type, galvanized steel and asbestos. The slopes varied of 20, 30, 40 and 50% for ceramic tile and 10, 30, 40 and 50% for the others and with two repetitions for slope. Inside the reduced models temperature readings were accomplished, of hour in hour during one year, for the system of acquisition of Data Logger Campbell Scientific-Ínc and externally the temperature of the air, incident radiation global solar, precipitation, speed and relative humidity of the air were measured. The results obtained during the experimental period of one year were appraised statistically for the statistical package SAS in the factorial outline, where three factors were considered: tile type, slope degree and exposure. The obtained averages were compared through the test of Tukey to 5% of probability. After analyzing the data we found that with increasing slope, there was a decrease in inside temperature in the cover prototypes, therefore, using steeper slopes with 50% of tipping ceramics and asbestos, with greater coverage on display South, we have lower temperatures in poultry houses in the geographic coordinates of the city of Jaboticabal.

Avaliação da eficiência de isolantes térmicos por reflexão, utilizados como subcoberturas

Pós-graduação em Agronomia (Energia na Agricultura) - FCA

Avaliação de diferentes materiais de cobertura, inclinações e exposições de telhado na temperatura interna em modelos reduzidos de instalações zootécnicas

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)