Padrões de aleatoriedade na modelação do acaso

A soma de variáveis aleatórias com número de parcelas é aleatório, para além do evidente interesse conceptual e teórico, tem larga ressonância na investigação do processo de risco e em processos de ramificação. Reformulamos a teoria de Panjer (1981), que permite o cálculo iterativo do risco agregado, com o recurso a valores médios de uniformes, descrevendo uma extensão da classe de Panjer, e estudando em detalhe a equação funcional que a caracteriza. Aplicamos essas ideias na caracterização de aleatoriedade discreta, exemplificando com o comportamento das fêmeas de pássaros que investem na promiscuidade de parceiros para garantir a diversidade genética da progénie, tendo no entanto o cuidado de manter as aparências de fidelidade, para garantir a cooperação do parceiro no sucesso da ninhada. Apresentamos as transformadas de Laplace e funções geradoras numa perspectiva que leva a uma introdção natural de transformadas de Pareto, cuja relevância exemplificamos.

Measuring the spatial arrangement patterns of pathological lesions in histological sections of brain tissue

The development of abnormal protein aggregates in the form of extracellular plaques and intracellular inclusions is a characteristic feature of many neurodegenerative diseases such as Alzheimer's disease (AD), Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (CJD) and the fronto-temporal dementias (FTD). An important aspect of a pathological protein aggregate is its spatial topography in the tissue. Lesions may not be randomly distributed within a histological section but exhibit spatial pattern, a departure from randomness either towards regularity or clustering. Information on the spatial pattern of a lesion may be useful in elucidating its pathogenesis and in studying the relationships between different lesions. This article reviews the methods that have been used to study the spatial topography of lesions. These include simple tests of whether the distribution of a lesion departs significantly from random using randomized points or sample fields, and more complex methods that employ grids or transects of contiguous fields and which can detect the intensity of aggregation and the sizes, distribution and spacing of the clusters. The usefulness of these methods in elucidating the pathogenesis of protein aggregates in neurodegenerative disease is discussed.

What does the study of the spatial patterns of pathological lesions tell us about the pathogenesis of neurodegenerative disorders?

Discrete pathological lesions, which include extracellular protein deposits, intracellular inclusions and changes in cell morphology, occur in the brain in the majority of neurodegenerative disorders. These lesions are not randomly distributed in the brain but exhibit a spatial pattern, that is, a departure from randomness towards regularity or clustering. The spatial pattern of a lesion may reflect pathological processes affecting particular neuroanatomical structures and, therefore, studies of spatial pattern may help to elucidate the pathogenesis of a lesion and of the disorders themselves. The present article reviews first, the statistical methods used to detect spatial patterns and second, the types of spatial patterns exhibited by pathological lesions in a variety of disorders which include Alzheimer's disease, Down syndrome, dementia with Lewy bodies, Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease, Pick's disease and corticobasal degeneration. These studies suggest that despite the morphological and molecular diversity of brain lesions, they often exhibit a common type of spatial pattern (i.e. aggregation into clusters that are regularly distributed in the tissue). The pathogenic implications of spatial pattern analysis are discussed with reference to the individual disorders and to studies of neurodegeneration as a whole.

The spatial patterns of beta-amyloid deposits and neurofibrillary tangles in the cerebral cortex in Alzheimer's disease

In Alzheimer's disease (AD) brain, beta-amyloid (Abeta) deposits and neurofibrillary tangles (NFT) are not randomly distributed but exhibit a spatial pattern, i.e., a departure from randomness towards regularity or clustering. Studies of the spatial pattern of a lesion may contribute to an understanding of its pathogenesis and therefore, of AD itself. This article describes the statistical methods most commonly used to detect the spatial patterns of brain lesions and the types of spatial patterns exhibited by ß-amyloid deposits and NFT in the cerebral cortex in AD. These studies suggest that within the cerebral cortex, Abeta deposits and NFT exhibit a similar spatial pattern, i.e., an aggregation of individual lesions into clusters which are regularly distributed parallel to the pia mater. The location, size and distribution of these clusters supports the hypothesis that AD is a 'disconnection syndrome' in which degeneration of specific cortical pathways results in the formation of clusters of NFT and Abeta deposits. In addition, a model to explain the development of the pathology within the cerebral cortex is proposed.

Quantitative electroencephalographic comodulation : an investigation of patterns in chronic fatigue syndrome

Introduction. This is a pilot study of quantitative electro-encephalographic (QEEG) comodulation analysis, which is used to assist in identifying regional brain differences in those people suffering from chronic fatigue syndrome (CFS) compared to a normative database. The QEEG comodulation analysis examines spatial-temporal cross-correlation of spectral estimates in the resting dominant frequency band. A pattern shown by Sterman and Kaiser (2001) and referred to as the anterior posterior dissociation (APD) discloses a significant reduction in shared functional modulation between frontal and centro-parietal areas of the cortex. This research attempts to examine whether this pattern is evident in CFS. Method. Eleven adult participants, diagnosed by a physician as having CFS, were involved in QEEG data collection. Nineteen-channel cap recordings were made in five conditions: eyes-closed baseline, eyes-open, reading task one, math computations task two, and a second eyes-closed baseline. Results. Four of the 11 participants showed an anterior posterior dissociation pattern for the eyes-closed resting dominant frequency. However, seven of the 11 participants did not show this pattern. Examination of the mean 8-12 Hz amplitudes across three cortical regions (frontal, central and parietal) indicated a trend of higher overall alpha levels in the parietal region in CFS patients who showed the APD pattern compared to those who did not have this pattern. All patients showing the pattern were free of medication, while 71% of those absent of the pattern were using antidepressant medications. Conclusions. Although the sample is small, it is suggested that this method of evaluating the disorder holds promise. The fact that this pattern was not consistently represented in the CFS sample could be explained by the possibility of subtypes of CFS, or perhaps co-morbid conditions. Further, the use of antidepressant medications may mask the pattern by altering the temporal characteristics of the EEG. The results of this pilot study indicate that further research is warranted to verify that the pattern holds across the wider population of CFS sufferers.