How did the Financial Crisis affect the Real Interest Rate Dynamics in Europe?

We investigate the effects of the financial crisis on the stationarity of real interest rates in the Euro Area. We use a new unit root test developed by Peseran et al. (2013) that allows for multiple unobserved factors in a panel set up. Our results suggest that while short-term and long-term real interest rates were stationary before the financial crisis, they became nonstationary during the crisis period likely due to persistent risk that characterized financial markets during that time. JEL codes: E43, C23. Keywords: Real interest rates, Euro Area, financial crisis, panel unit root tests, cross-sectional dependence.

Exchange rate dynamics in Brazil

The paper aims to investigate on empirical and theoretical grounds the Brazilian exchange rate dynamics under floating exchange rates. The empirical analysis examines the short and long term behavior of the exchange rate, interest rate (domestic and foreign) and country risk using econometric techniques such as variance decomposition, Granger causality, cointegration tests, error correction models, and a GARCH model to estimate the exchange rate volatility. The empirical findings suggest that one can argue in favor of a certain degree of endogeneity of the exchange rate and that flexible rates have not been able to insulate the Brazilian economy in the same patterns predicted by literature due to its own specificities (managed floating with the use of international reserves and domestic interest rates set according to inflation target) and to externally determined variables such as the country risk. Another important outcome is the lack of a closer association of domestic and foreign interest rates since the new exchange regime has been adopted. That is, from January 1999 to May 2004, the US monetary policy has no significant impact on the Brazilian exchange rate dynamics, which has been essentially endogenous primarily when we consider the fiscal dominance expressed by the probability of default.

Acute effects of flexible pole exercise on heart rate dynamics

Introduction: Exercise with flexible poles provides fast eccentric and concentric muscle contractions. Although the literature reports significant muscle chain activity during this exercise, it is not clear if a single bout of exercise induces cardiac changes. In this study we assessed the acute effects of flexible pole exercise on cardiac autonomic regulation.Methods: The study was performed on 22 women between 18 and 26 years old. We assessed heart rate variability (HRV) in the time (SDNN, RMSSD and pNN50) and frequency (HF, LF and LF/HF ratio) domains and geometric indices of HRV (RRTri, TINN, SD1, SD2 and SD1/SD2 ratio). The subjects remained at rest for 10 min and then performed the exercises with the flexible poles. Immediately after the exercise protocol, the volunteers remained seated at rest for 60 min and HRV was analyzed.Results: We observed no significant changes in time domain (SDNN: p=0.72; RMSSD: p=0.94 and pNN50: p=0.92) or frequency domain indices (LF [nu]: p=0.98; LF [ms(2)]: p=0.72; HF [nu]: p=0.98; HF [ms(2)]: p=0.82 and LF/HF ratio: p=0.7) or in geometric indices (RRTri: p=0.54; TINN: p=0.77; SD1 p=0.94; SD2: p=0.67 and SD/SD2: p=0.42) before and after a single bout of flexible pole exercise.Conclusion: A single bout of flexible pole exercise did not induce significant changes in cardiac autonomic regulation in healthy women. (C) 2014 Sociedade Portuguesa de Cardiologia. Published by Elsevier Espana, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Exchange rate dynamics, structural breaks, and central bank interventions in Colombia

We evaluate the effectiveness of the Colombian Central Bank´s interventions in the foreign exchange market during the period 2000 to 2014 -- We examine the stochastic process that describes the exchange rate, with a focus on the detection of structural breaks or unit roots in the data to determine whether the Central Bank´s interventions were effective -- We find that the exchange rate can be described either by a random walk or by a trend-stationary model with multiple breaks -- In neither cases do we find any evidence that the exchange rate was affected by the Central Bank interventions

Influence of high- and low-carbohydrate diet following glycogen-depleting exercise on heart rate variability and plasma catecholamines

The purpose of this study was to investigate the effects of a short-term low-or high-carbohydrate (CHO) diet consumed after exercise on sympathetic nervous system activity. Twelve healthy males underwent a progressive incremental test; a control measurement of plasma catecholamines and heart rate variability (HRV); an exercise protocol to reduce endogenous CHO stores; a low-or high-CHO diet (counterbalanced order) consumed for 2 days, beginning immediately after the exercise protocol; and a second resting plasma catecholamine and HRV measurement. The exercise and diet protocols and the second round of measurements were performed again after a 1-week washout period. The mean (+/- SD) values of the standard deviation of R-R intervals were similar between conditions (control, 899.0 +/- 146.1 ms; low-CHO diet, 876.8 +/- 115.8 ms; and high-CHO diet, 878.7 +/- 127.7 ms). The absolute high-and low-frequency (HF and LF, respectively) densities of the HRV power spectrum were also not different between conditions. However, normalized HF and LF (i.e., relative to the total power spectrum) were lower and higher, respectively, in the low-CHO diet than in the control diet (mean +/- SD, 17 +/- 9 normalized units (NU) and 83 +/- 9 NU vs. 27 +/- 11 NU and 73 +/- 17 NU, respectively; p < 0.05). The LF/HF ratio was higher with the low-CHO diet than with the control diet (mean +/- SD, 7.2 +/- 6.2 and 4.2 +/- 3.2, respectively; p < 0.05). The mean values of plasma catecholamines were not different between diets. These results suggest that the autonomic control of the heart rate was modified after a short-term low-CHO diet, but plasma catecholamine levels were not altered.

Sex differences in the fetal heart rate variability indices of twins

Aims: To evaluate the differences in linear and complex heart rate dynamics in twin pairs according to fetal sex combination [male-female (MF), male-male (MM), and female-female (FF)]. Methods: Fourteen twin pairs (6 MF, 3 MM, and 5 FF) were monitored between 31 and 36.4 weeks of gestation. Twenty-six fetal heart rate (FHR) recordings of both twins were simultaneously acquired and analyzed with a system for computerized analysis of cardiotocograms. Linear and nonlinear FHR indices were calculated. Results: Overall, MM twins presented higher intrapair average in linear indices than the other pairs, whereas FF twins showed higher sympathetic-vagal balance. MF twins exhibited higher intrapair average in entropy indices and MM twins presented lower entropy values than FF twins considering the (automatically selected) threshold rLu. MM twin pairs showed higher intrapair differences in linear heart rate indices than MF and FF twins, whereas FF twins exhibited lower intrapair differences in entropy indices. Conclusions: The results of this exploratory study suggest that twins have sex-specific differences in linear and nonlinear indices of FHR. MM twins expressed signs of a more active autonomic nervous system and MF twins showed the most active complexity control system. These results suggest that fetal sex combination should be taken into consideration when performing detailed evaluation of the FHR in twins.

Fractal correlation of heart rate variability in obese children

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Fractal correlation property of heart rate variability in response to the postural change maneuver in healthy women

Background: We evaluated the effects of the PCM on the fractal analysis of the HRV in healthy women Method: We evaluated healthy women between 18 and 30 years old. HRV was analyzed in the time (SDNN, RMSSD, NN50 and pNN50) and frequency (LF, HF and LF/HF ratio) domains as well as short and long-term fractal exponents (alpha-1 and alpha-2) of the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA). HRV was recorded at rest for ten minutes at seated rest and then the women quickly stood up from a seated position in up to three seconds and remained standing for 15 minutes. HRV was recorded at the following time: rest, 0–5 min, 5–10 min and 10–15 min during standing. Results: We observed decrease (p < 0.05) in the time-domain indices of HRV between seated and 10–15 minutes after the volunteer stood up. The LF (ms2) and HF (ms2) indices were also reduced (p < 0.05) at 10–15 minutes after the volunteer stood up compared to seated while the LF (nu) was increased at 5–10 min and 10–15 min (p < 0.05). The short-term alpha-1 exponent was increased (p < 0.05) at all moments investigated compared to seated. Increase in the properties of short-term fractal correlations of heart rate dynamics accompanied by a decrease in the parasympathetic modulation and global HRV was observed in response to the postural change maneuver. Conclusion: We suggest that fractal analysis of HRV is more sensitive than frequency and time-domain analysis of HRV during the postural change maneuver.

Linear and nonlinear measures of fetal heart rate patterns evaluated on very short fetal magnetocardiograms

We analyzed the effectiveness of linear short- and long-term variability time domain parameters, an index of sympatho-vagal balance (SDNN/RMSSD) and entropy in differentiating fetal heart rate patterns (fHRPs) on the fetal heart rate (fHR) series of 5, 3 and 2 min duration reconstructed from 46 fetal magnetocardiograms. Gestational age (GA) varied from 21 to 38 weeks. FHRPs were classified based on the fHR standard deviation. In sleep states, we observed that vagal influence increased with GA, and entropy significantly increased (decreased) with GA (SDNN/RMSSD), demonstrating that a prevalence of vagal activity with autonomous nervous system maturation may be associated with increased sleep state complexity. In active wakefulness, we observed a significant negative (positive) correlation of short-term (long-term) variability parameters with SDNN/RMSSD. ANOVA statistics demonstrated that long-term irregularity and standard deviation of normal-to-normal beat intervals (SDNN) best differentiated among fHRPs. Our results confirm that short-and long-term variability parameters are useful to differentiate between quiet and active states, and that entropy improves the characterization of sleep states. All measures differentiated fHRPs more effectively on very short HR series, as a result of the fMCG high temporal resolution and of the intrinsic timescales of the events that originate the different fHRPs.

Nonlinear control of heart rate variability in human infants.

Nonlinear analyses of infant heart rhythms reveal a marked rise in the complexity of the electrocardiogram with maturation. We find that normal mature infants (gestation greater than or equal to 35 weeks) have complex and distinctly nonlinear heart rhythms (consistent with recent reports for healthy adults) but that such nonlinearity is lacking in preterm infants (gestation > or = to 27 weeks) where parasympathetic-sympathetic interaction and function are presumed to be less well developed. Our study further shows that infants with clinical brain death and those treated with atropine exhibit a similar lack of nonlinear feedback control. These three lines of evidence support the hypothesis championed by Goldberger et al. [Goldberger, A.L., Rigney, D.R. & West, B.J. (1990) Sci. Am. 262, 43-49] that autonomic nervous system control underlies the nonlinearity and possible chaos of normal heart rhythms. This report demonstrates the acquisition of nonlinear heart rate dynamics and possible chaos in developing human infants and its loss in brain death and with the administration of atropine. It parallels earlier work documenting changes in the variability of heart rhythms in each of these cases and suggests that nonlinearity may provide additional power in characterizing physiological states.

Essays on exchange rate economics

Exchange rate economics has achieved substantial development in the past few decades. Despite extensive research, a large number of unresolved problems remain in the exchange rate debate. This dissertation studied three puzzling issues aiming to improve our understanding of exchange rate behavior. Chapter Two used advanced econometric techniques to model and forecast exchange rate dynamics. Chapter Three and Chapter Four studied issues related to exchange rates using the theory of New Open Economy Macroeconomics. ^ Chapter Two empirically examined the short-run forecastability of nominal exchange rates. It analyzed important empirical regularities in daily exchange rates. Through a series of hypothesis tests, a best-fitting fractionally integrated GARCH model with skewed student-t error distribution was identified. The forecasting performance of the model was compared with that of a random walk model. Results supported the contention that nominal exchange rates seem to be unpredictable over the short run in the sense that the best-fitting model cannot beat the random walk model in forecasting exchange rate movements. ^ Chapter Three assessed the ability of dynamic general-equilibrium sticky-price monetary models to generate volatile foreign exchange risk premia. It developed a tractable two-country model where agents face a cash-in-advance constraint and set prices to the local market; the exogenous money supply process exhibits time-varying volatility. The model yielded approximate closed form solutions for risk premia and real exchange rates. Numerical results provided quantitative evidence that volatile risk premia can endogenously arise in a new open economy macroeconomic model. Thus, the model had potential to rationalize the Uncovered Interest Parity Puzzle. ^ Chapter Four sought to resolve the consumption-real exchange rate anomaly, which refers to the inability of most international macro models to generate negative cross-correlations between real exchange rates and relative consumption across two countries as observed in the data. While maintaining the assumption of complete asset markets, this chapter introduced endogenously segmented asset markets into a dynamic sticky-price monetary model. Simulation results showed that such a model could replicate the stylized fact that real exchange rates tend to move in an opposite direction with respect to relative consumption. ^

Essays on Exchange Rate Economics

Exchange rate economics has achieved substantial development in the past few decades. Despite extensive research, a large number of unresolved problems remain in the exchange rate debate. This dissertation studied three puzzling issues aiming to improve our understanding of exchange rate behavior. Chapter Two used advanced econometric techniques to model and forecast exchange rate dynamics. Chapter Three and Chapter Four studied issues related to exchange rates using the theory of New Open Economy Macroeconomics. Chapter Two empirically examined the short-run forecastability of nominal exchange rates. It analyzed important empirical regularities in daily exchange rates. Through a series of hypothesis tests, a best-fitting fractionally integrated GARCH model with skewed student-t error distribution was identified. The forecasting performance of the model was compared with that of a random walk model. Results supported the contention that nominal exchange rates seem to be unpredictable over the short run in the sense that the best-fitting model cannot beat the random walk model in forecasting exchange rate movements. Chapter Three assessed the ability of dynamic general-equilibrium sticky-price monetary models to generate volatile foreign exchange risk premia. It developed a tractable two-country model where agents face a cash-in-advance constraint and set prices to the local market; the exogenous money supply process exhibits time-varying volatility. The model yielded approximate closed form solutions for risk premia and real exchange rates. Numerical results provided quantitative evidence that volatile risk premia can endogenously arise in a new open economy macroeconomic model. Thus, the model had potential to rationalize the Uncovered Interest Parity Puzzle. Chapter Four sought to resolve the consumption-real exchange rate anomaly, which refers to the inability of most international macro models to generate negative cross-correlations between real exchange rates and relative consumption across two countries as observed in the data. While maintaining the assumption of complete asset markets, this chapter introduced endogenously segmented asset markets into a dynamic sticky-price monetary model. Simulation results showed that such a model could replicate the stylized fact that real exchange rates tend to move in an opposite direction with respect to relative consumption.

Physical activity profile in heart failure patients from a Brazilian tertiary cardiology hospital

Background: Physical activity (PA) has proven benefits in the primary prevention of heart diseases such as heart failure (HF). Although it is well known, HF PA habits and physicians` advice have been poorly described. The aim of this study was to investigate if physicians were advising HF patients to exercise and to quantify patients` exercise profiles in a complex cardiology hospital. Methods: All 131 HF patients (80 male, average age 53 +/- 10 years, NYHA class I-V, left ventricular ejection fraction 35 +/- 11%, 35 ischemic, 35 idiopatic , 32 hypertensive and 29 with Chagas disease) went to the hospital for a HF routine check-up. On this occasion, after seeing the physician, we asked the patients if the physician had advised them about PA. Then, we asked them to fill in the international physical activity questionnaire (IPQA) Short Form to classify their PA level. Results: Our data showed a significant difference between patients who had received any kind of PA advice from physicians (36%) and those who had not (64%, p<0.0001). Using the IPAQ criteria, of the 36% of patients who had received advice, 12.4% were classified as low and 23.6% as moderate. Of the 64% of patients who did not receive advice, 26.8% were classified as lowand 37.2% as moderate. Etiology (except Chagas), functional class, ejection fraction, sex and age did not influence the PA profile. Conclusions: Physicians at a tertiary cardiology hospital were not giving patients satisfactory advice as to PA. Our data supports the need to strengthen exercise encouragement by physicians and for complementary studies on this area. (Cardiol J 2010; 17, 2: 143-148)

The Carvedilol`s Beta-Blockade in Heart Failure and Exercise Training`s Sympathetic Blockade in Healthy Athletes during the Rest and Peak Effort

In recent years, beta-blocker therapy has become a primary pharmacologic intervention in patients with heart failure by blocking the sympathetic activity. To compare the exercise training`s sympathetic blockade in healthy subjects (athletes) and the carvedilol`s sympathetic blockade in sedentary heart failure patients by the evaluation of the heart rate dynamic during an exercise test. A total of 26 optimized and 49 nonoptimized heart failure patients in a stable condition (for, at least, 3 months), 15 healthy athletes and 17 sedentary healthy subjects were recruited to perform a cardiopulmonary exercise test. The heart rate dynamic (rest, reserve, peak and the peak heart rate in relation to the maximum predicted for age) was analyzed and compared between the four groups. The heart rate reserve was the same between optimized (48 +/- 15) and nonoptimized (49 +/- 18) heart failure patients (P < 0.0001). The athletes (188 +/- 9) showed a larger heart rate reserve compared to sedentary healthy subjects (92 +/- 10, P < 0.0001). Athletes and healthy sedentary reached the maximum age-predicted heart ratefor their age, but none of the heart failure patients did. The carvedilol`s sympathetic blockade occurred during the rest and during the peak effort in the same proportion, but the exercise training`s sympathetic blockade in healthy subjects occurred mainly in the rest.