An essay on impression management: three randomized experiments with financial analysts

This thesis aims to explore the concept of impression management from the financial analysts’ point of view. Impression management is the definition of the act of an agent manipulating an impression that another person have of this agent, in the context of this thesis it happens when a company make graphics to disclosure financial-accounting information in order to manipulate the market’s perception of their performance. Three types of impression management were analyzed: presentation enhancement (color manipulation), measurement distortion (scale manipulation) and selectivity (the disclosure of positive information only). While presentation enhancement improved only the most impulsive financial analysts’ perception of firm’s performance, the measurement distortion improved the perception of performance for both groups of financial analysts (impulsive and reflective). Finally, selectivity improved the financial analysts’ perception of firm’s performance for both groups (impulsive and reflective), although impulsive financial analysts assigned lower ratings when compared to their reflective peers, on average, to a hypothetical company.

ENGINEERING DIGITAL SHARING PLATFORM TO CREATE SOCIAL CONTAGION: EVIDENCE FROM LARGE SCALE RANDOMIZED FIELD EXPERIMENTS

Peer-to-peer information sharing has fundamentally changed customer decision-making process. Recent developments in information technologies have enabled digital sharing platforms to influence various granular aspects of the information sharing process. Despite the growing importance of digital information sharing, little research has examined the optimal design choices for a platform seeking to maximize returns from information sharing. My dissertation seeks to fill this gap. Specifically, I study novel interventions that can be implemented by the platform at different stages of the information sharing. In collaboration with a leading for-profit platform and a non-profit platform, I conduct three large-scale field experiments to causally identify the impact of these interventions on customers’ sharing behaviors as well as the sharing outcomes. The first essay examines whether and how a firm can enhance social contagion by simply varying the message shared by customers with their friends. Using a large randomized field experiment, I find that i) adding only information about the sender’s purchase status increases the likelihood of recipients’ purchase; ii) adding only information about referral reward increases recipients’ follow-up referrals; and iii) adding information about both the sender’s purchase as well as the referral rewards increases neither the likelihood of purchase nor follow-up referrals. I then discuss the underlying mechanisms. The second essay studies whether and how a firm can design unconditional incentive to engage customers who already reveal willingness to share. I conduct a field experiment to examine the impact of incentive design on sender’s purchase as well as further referral behavior. I find evidence that incentive structure has a significant, but interestingly opposing, impact on both outcomes. The results also provide insights about senders’ motives in sharing. The third essay examines whether and how a non-profit platform can use mobile messaging to leverage recipients’ social ties to encourage blood donation. I design a large field experiment to causally identify the impact of different types of information and incentives on donor’s self-donation and group donation behavior. My results show that non-profits can stimulate group effect and increase blood donation, but only with group reward. Such group reward works by motivating a different donor population. In summary, the findings from the three studies will offer valuable insights for platforms and social enterprises on how to engineer digital platforms to create social contagion. The rich data from randomized experiments and complementary sources (archive and survey) also allows me to test the underlying mechanism at work. In this way, my dissertation provides both managerial implication and theoretical contribution to the phenomenon of peer-to-peer information sharing.

Formulating Mixed Models for Experiments, Including Longitudinal Experiments

Mixed models have become important in analyzing the results of experiments, particularly those that require more complicated models (e.g., those that involve longitudinal data). This article describes a method for deriving the terms in a mixed model. Our approach extends an earlier method by Brien and Bailey to explicitly identify terms for which autocorrelation and smooth trend arising from longitudinal observations need to be incorporated in the model. At the same time we retain the principle that the model used should include, at least, all the terms that are justified by the randomization. This is done by dividing the factors into sets, called tiers, based on the randomization and determining the crossing and nesting relationships between factors. The method is applied to formulate mixed models for a wide range of examples. We also describe the mixed model analysis of data from a three-phase experiment to investigate the effect of time of refinement on Eucalyptus pulp from four different sources. Cubic smoothing splines are used to describe differences in the trend over time and unstructured covariance matrices between times are found to be necessary.

Natural resources, redistribution and Human capital formation

How do resource booms affect human capital accumulation? We exploit time and spatial variation generated by the commodity boom across local governments in Peru to measure the effect of natural resources on human capital formation. We explore the effect of both mining production and tax revenues on test scores, finding a substantial and statistically significant effect for the latter. Transfers to local governments from mining tax revenues are linked to an increase in math test scores of around 0.23 standard deviations. We find that the hiring of permanent teachers as well as the increases in parental employment and improvements in health outcomes of adults and children are plausible mechanisms for such large effect on learning. These findings suggest that redistributive policies could facilitate the accumulation of human capital in resource abundant developing countries as a way to avoid the natural resources curse.

Uso de hidrogel na sobrevivência de mudas de Eucalyptus urograndis produzidas com diferentes substratos e manejos hídricos

This study aimed to evaluate the use of hydrogel in the survival of cuttings of Eucalyptus urograndis produced with different types of substrate and water management. The experiment was carried out using cuttings of the same clone, produced up to 50 days after the cutting, in two different nurseries ("C" and "E"). Then, all the cuttings were allocated to the same nursery for 80 days, where they received irrigation at different frequencies. After this period, the cuttings were transplanted into polyethylene pots, in clay soil, with and without hydrogel. The results obtained were subjected to the variance technique for totally randomized experiments. Data analysis revealed that the plants with hydrogel displayed delayed symptoms of water deficit. Regardless of the cutting's origin ("C" or "E"), the hydrogel influenced survival, guaranteeing 37 days without additional irrigation. The nursery water management only influenced the plants from nursery "E", and the plants adapted to the lack of water (water management with one daily irrigation) took more time to present symptoms of water deficit.

Seawater carbonate chemistry, survival rate, shell mass growth, shell dissolution and locomotory speed of Limacina retroversa in a laboratory experiment

Anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions induce ocean acidification, thereby reducing carbonate ion concentration, which may affect the ability of calcifying organisms to build shells. Pteropods, the main planktonic producers of aragonite in the worlds' oceans, may be particularly vulnerable to changes in sea water chemistry. The negative effects are expected to be most severe at high-latitudes, where natural carbonate ion concentrations are low. In this study we investigated the combined effects of ocean acidification and freshening on Limacina retroversa, the dominant pteropod in sub polar areas. Living L. retroversa, collected in Northern Norwegian Sea, were exposed to four different pH values ranging from the pre-industrial level to the forecasted end of century ocean acidification scenario. Since over the past half-century the Norwegian Sea has experienced a progressive freshening with time, each pH level was combined with a salinity gradient in two factorial, randomized experiments investigating shell degradation, swimming behavior and survival. In addition, to investigate shell degradation without any physiologic influence, one perturbation experiments using only shells of dead pteropods was performed. Lower pH reduced shell mass whereas shell dissolution increased with pCO2. Interestingly, shells of dead organisms had a higher degree of dissolution than shells of living individuals. Mortality of Limacina retroversa was strongly affected only when both pH and salinity reduced simultaneously. The combined effects of lower salinity and lower pH also affected negatively the ability of pteropods to swim upwards. Results suggest that the energy cost of maintaining ion balance and avoiding sinking (in low salinity scenario) combined with the extra energy cost necessary to counteract shell dissolution (in high pCO2 scenario), exceed the available energy budget of this organism causing the pteropods to change swimming behavior and begin to collapse. Since L. retroversa play an important role in the transport of carbonates to the deep oceans these findings have significant implications for the mechanisms influencing the inorganic carbon cycle in the sub-polar area.

Finite Population Inference for Causal Parameters

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Effects of Low-Level Laser Therapy on Pain and Scar Formation After Inguinal Herniation Surgery: A Randomized Controlled Single-Blind Study

Objective: The aim of this study was to investigate the efficacy of an infrared GaAlAs laser operating with a wavelength of 830 nm in the postsurgical scarring process after inguinal-hernia surgery. Background: Low-level laser therapy (LLLT) has been shown to be beneficial in the tissue-repair process, as previously demonstrated in tissue culture and animal experiments. However, there is lack of studies on the effects of LLLT on postsurgical scarring of incisions in humans using an infrared 830-nm GaAlAs laser. Method: Twenty-eight patients who underwent surgery for inguinal hernias were randomly divided into an experimental group (G1) and a control group (G2). G1 received LLLT, with the first application performed 24 h after surgery and then on days 3, 5, and 7. The incisions were irradiated with an 830-nm diode laser operating with a continuous power output of 40 mW, a spot-size aperture of 0.08 cm(2) for 26 s, energy per point of 1.04 J, and an energy density of 13 J/cm(2). Ten points per scar were irradiated. Six months after surgery, both groups were reevaluated using the Vancouver Scar Scale (VSS), the Visual Analog Scale, and measurement of the scar thickness. Results: G1 showed significantly better results in the VSS totals (2.14 +/- 1.51) compared with G2 (4.85 +/- 1.87); in the thickness measurements (0.11 cm) compared with G2 (0.19 cm); and in the malleability (0.14) compared with G2 (1.07). The pain score was also around 50% higher in G2. Conclusion: Infra-red LLLT (830 nm) applied after inguinal-hernia surgery was effective in preventing the formation of keloids. In addition, LLLT resulted in better scar appearance and quality 6 mo postsurgery.

Analysis of experiments in square lattice with emphasis on variance components. i. Individual analysis

This paper focused on four alternatives of analysis of experiments in square lattice as far as the estimation of variance components and some genetic parameters are concerned: 1) intra-block analysis with adjusted treatment and blocks within unadjusted repetitions; 2) lattice analysis as complete randomized blocks; 3) intrablock analysis with unadjusted treatment and blocks within adjusted repetitions; 4) lattice analysis as complete randomized blocks, by utilizing the adjusted means of treatments, obtained from the analysis with recovery of interblock information, having as mean square of the error the mean effective variance of this same analysis with recovery of inter-block information. For the four alternatives of analysis, the estimators and estimates were obtained for the variance components and heritability coefficients. The classification of material was also studied. The present study suggests that for each experiment and depending of the objectives of the analysis, one should observe which alternative of analysis is preferable, mainly in cases where a negative estimate is obtained for the variance component due to effects of blocks within adjusted repetitions.

Methods of genetic diversity creation and functional display for directed evolution experiments

Protein engineering aims to improve the properties of enzymes and affinity reagents by genetic changes. Typical engineered properties are affinity, specificity, stability, expression, and solubility. Because proteins are complex biomolecules, the effects of specific genetic changes are seldom predictable. Consequently, a popular strategy in protein engineering is to create a library of genetic variants of the target molecule, and render the population in a selection process to sort the variants by the desired property. This technique, called directed evolution, is a central tool for trimming protein-based products used in a wide range of applications from laundry detergents to anti-cancer drugs. New methods are continuously needed to generate larger gene repertoires and compatible selection platforms to shorten the development timeline for new biochemicals. In the first study of this thesis, primer extension mutagenesis was revisited to establish higher quality gene variant libraries in Escherichia coli cells. In the second study, recombination was explored as a method to expand the number of screenable enzyme variants. A selection platform was developed to improve antigen binding fragment (Fab) display on filamentous phages in the third article and, in the fourth study, novel design concepts were tested by two differentially randomized recombinant antibody libraries. Finally, in the last study, the performance of the same antibody repertoire was compared in phage display selections as a genetic fusion to different phage capsid proteins and in different antibody formats, Fab vs. single chain variable fragment (ScFv), in order to find out the most suitable display platform for the library at hand. As a result of the studies, a novel gene library construction method, termed selective rolling circle amplification (sRCA), was developed. The method increases mutagenesis frequency close to 100% in the final library and the number of transformants over 100-fold compared to traditional primer extension mutagenesis. In the second study, Cre/loxP recombination was found to be an appropriate tool to resolve the DNA concatemer resulting from error-prone RCA (epRCA) mutagenesis into monomeric circular DNA units for higher efficiency transformation into E. coli. Library selections against antigens of various size in the fourth study demonstrated that diversity placed closer to the antigen binding site of antibodies supports generation of antibodies against haptens and peptides, whereas diversity at more peripheral locations is better suited for targeting proteins. The conclusion from a comparison of the display formats was that truncated capsid protein three (p3Δ) of filamentous phage was superior to the full-length p3 and protein nine (p9) in obtaining a high number of uniquely specific clones. Especially for digoxigenin, a difficult hapten target, the antibody repertoire as ScFv-p3Δ provided the clones with the highest affinity for binding. This thesis on the construction, design, and selection of gene variant libraries contributes to the practical know-how in directed evolution and contains useful information for scientists in the field to support their undertakings.

Looking for the GAP effect in manual responses and the role of contextual influences in reaction time experiments

When the offset of a visual stimulus (GAP condition) precedes the onset of a target, saccadic reaction times are reduced in relation to the condition with no offset (overlap condition) - the GAP effect. However, the existence of the GAP effect for manual responses is still controversial. In two experiments using both simple (Experiment 1, N = 18) and choice key-press procedures (Experiment 2, N = 12), we looked for the GAP effect in manual responses and investigated possible contextual influences on it. Participants were asked to respond to the imperative stimulus that would occur under different experimental contexts, created by varying the array of warning-stimulus intervals (0, 300 and 1000 ms) and conditions (GAP and overlap): i) intervals and conditions were randomized throughout the experiment; ii) conditions were run in different blocks and intervals were randomized; iii) intervals were run in different blocks and conditions were randomized. Our data showed that no GAP effect was obtained for any manipulation. The predictability of stimulus occurrence produced the strongest influence on response latencies. In Experiment 1, simple manual responses were shorter when the intervals were blocked (247 ms, P < 0.001) in relation to the other two contexts (274 and 279 ms). Despite the use of choice key-press procedures, Experiment 2 produced a similar pattern of results. A discussion addressing the critical conditions to obtain the GAP effect for distinct motor responses is presented. In short, our data stress the relevance of the temporal allocation of attention for behavioral performance.

Prebiotic evaluation of cocoa-derived flavanols in healthy humans by using a randomized, controlled, double-blind, crossover intervention study

BACKGROUND: The absorption of cocoa flavanols in the small intestine is limited, and the majority of the flavanols reach the large intestine where they may be metabolized by resident microbiota. OBJECTIVE: We assessed the prebiotic potential of cocoa flavanols in a randomized, double-blind, crossover, controlled intervention study. DESIGN: Twenty-two healthy human volunteers were randomly assigned to either a high-cocoa flavanol (HCF) group (494 mg cocoa flavanols/d) or a low-cocoa flavanol (LCF) group (23 mg cocoa flavanols/d) for 4 wk. This was followed by a 4-wk washout period before volunteers crossed to the alternant arm. Fecal samples were recovered before and after each intervention, and bacterial numbers were measured by fluorescence in situ hybridization. A number of other biochemical and physiologic markers were measured. RESULTS: Compared with the consumption of the LCF drink, the daily consumption of the HCF drink for 4 wk significantly increased the bifidobacterial (P < 0.01) and lactobacilli (P < 0.001) populations but significantly decreased clostridia counts (P < 0.001). These microbial changes were paralleled by significant reductions in plasma triacylglycerol (P < 0.05) and C-reactive protein (P < 0.05) concentrations. Furthermore, changes in C-reactive protein concentrations were linked to changes in lactobacilli counts (P < 0.05, R(2) = -0.33 for the model). These in vivo changes were closely paralleled by cocoa flavanol-induced bacterial changes in mixed-batch culture experiments. CONCLUSION: This study shows, for the first time to our knowledge, that consumption of cocoa flavanols can significantly affect the growth of select gut microflora in humans, which suggests the potential prebiotic benefits associated with the dietary inclusion of flavanol-rich foods. This trial was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT01091922.

Cardiac Shock Wave Therapy for Chronic Refractory Angina Pectoris. A Prospective Placebo-Controlled Randomized Trial

Background: Cardiac shock wave therapy (CSWT) delivered to the myocardium increases capillary density and regional myocardial blood flow in animal experiments. In addition, nonenzymatic nitric oxide production and the upregulation of vascular growth factor's mRNA by CSWT have been described. The aim of the study was therefore to test its potential to relieve symptoms in patients with chronic stable angina pectoris. Methods: Twenty-one patients (mean age 68.2 ± 8.3 years, 19 males) with chronic refractory angina pectoris and evidence of inducible myocardial ischemia during MIBI-SPECT imaging, were randomized into a treatment (n = 11) and a placebo arm (n = 10). The region of exercise-induced ischemia was treated with echocardiographic guidance during nine sessions over a period of 3 months. One session of CSWT consisted of 200 shots/spot (9--12 spots/session) with an energy intensity of 0.09 mJ/mm2. In the control group acoustic simulation was performed without energy application. Medication was kept unchanged during the whole treatment period. Results: In the treatment group, symptoms improved in 9/11 patients, and the ischemic threshold, determined by cardiopulmonary exercise stress testing, increased from 80 ± 28 to 95 ± 28 W (P= 0.036). In the placebo arm, only 2/10 patients reported an improvement and the ischemic threshold remained unchanged (98 ± 23 to 107 ± 23 W; P= 0.141). The items “physical functioning” (P= 0.043), “general health perception” (P= 0.046), and “vitality” (P= 0.035) of the SF-36 questionnaire significantly improved in the treatment arm, whereas in the placebo arm, no significant change was noted. Neither arrhythmias, troponin rise nor complications were observed during treatment. Conclusions: This placebo controlled trial shows a significant improvement in symptoms, quality of life parameters and ischemic threshold during exercise in patients with chronic refractory angina pectoris treated with CSWT. Thus, CSWT represents a new option for the treatment of patients with refractory AP.

The effect of changing the built environment on physical activity: a quantitative review of the risk of bias in natural experiments.

BACKGROUND:
Evidence regarding the association of the built environment with physical activity is influencing policy recommendations that advocate changing the built environment to increase population-level physical activity. However, to date there has been no rigorous appraisal of the quality of the evidence on the effects of changing the built environment. The aim of this review was to conduct a thorough quantitative appraisal of the risk of bias present in those natural experiments with the strongest experimental designs for assessing the causal effects of the built environment on physical activity.

METHODS:
Eligible studies had to evaluate the effects of changing the built environment on physical activity, include at least one measurement before and one measurement of physical activity after changes in the environment, and have at least one intervention site and non-intervention comparison site. Given the large number of systematic reviews in this area, studies were identified from three exemplar systematic reviews; these were published in the past five years and were selected to provide a range of different built environment interventions. The risk of bias in these studies was analysed using the Cochrane Risk of Bias Assessment Tool: for Non-Randomized Studies of Interventions (ACROBAT-NRSI).

RESULTS:
Twelve eligible natural experiments were identified. Risk of bias assessments were conducted for each physical activity outcome from all studies, resulting in a total of fifteen outcomes being analysed. Intervention sites included parks, urban greenways/trails, bicycle lanes, paths, vacant lots, and a senior citizen's centre. All outcomes had an overall critical (n = 12) or serious (n = 3) risk of bias. Domains with the highest risk of bias were confounding (due to inadequate control sites and poor control of confounding variables), measurement of outcomes, and selection of the reported result.

CONCLUSIONS:
The present review focused on the strongest natural experiments conducted to date. Given this, the failure of existing studies to adequately control for potential sources of bias highlights the need for more rigorous research to underpin policy recommendations for changing the built environment to increase physical activity. Suggestions are proposed for how future natural experiments in this area can be improved.