Prediction in forensic science: a critical examination of common understandings

In this commentary, we argue that the term 'prediction' is overly used when in fact, referring to foundational writings of de Finetti, the correspondent term should be inference. In particular, we intend (i) to summarize and clarify relevant subject matter on prediction from established statistical theory, and (ii) point out the logic of this understanding with respect practical uses of the term prediction. Written from an interdisciplinary perspective, associating statistics and forensic science as an example, this discussion also connects to related fields such as medical diagnosis and other areas of application where reasoning based on scientific results is practiced in societal relevant contexts. This includes forensic psychology that uses prediction as part of its vocabulary when dealing with matters that arise in the course of legal proceedings.

A Preliminary Study: Body Dysmorphic Disorder in Division I Women’s Collegiate Soccer Players

The prevalence of Body Dysmorphic Disorder (BDD) among collegiate athletes has not been clearly determined. The purpose of this study was to determine if there are symptoms of body dysmorphic disorder found in Division I women’s soccer players. The researcher hypothesized that there would be some symptoms found within the participants of sport and that there was a need to research this area further. The study consisted of four participants who participated in semi-structured interviews. The subjects were asked a series of questions from the Yale-Brown Obsessive Compulsive Scale Modified for Body Dysmorphic Disorder (BDD-YBOCS) to determine if they indicated any symptoms of BDD. The prevalence of symptoms of BDD found among these four participants was very low. There was only one athlete who scored high on the questions that could be questionable of whether the indicators or symptoms of BDD were present. In conclusion there was not enough evidence to support the research hypothesis. The sample used was not a clear representation of all Division I women’s soccer players. Further research is needed to determine if BDD symptoms are found among Division I women’s soccer players.

Improving IRT parameter estimates with small sample sizes: Evaluating the efficacy of a new data augmentation technique

The 3PL model is a flexible and widely used tool in assessment. However, it suffers from limitations due to its need for large sample sizes. This study introduces and evaluates the efficacy of a new sample size augmentation technique called Duplicate, Erase, and Replace (DupER) Augmentation through a simulation study. Data are augmented using several variations of DupER Augmentation (based on different imputation methodologies, deletion rates, and duplication rates), analyzed in BILOG-MG 3, and results are compared to those obtained from analyzing the raw data. Additional manipulated variables include test length and sample size. Estimates are compared using seven different evaluative criteria. Results are mixed and inconclusive. DupER augmented data tend to result in larger root mean squared errors (RMSEs) and lower correlations between estimates and parameters for both item and ability parameters. However, some DupER variations produce estimates that are much less biased than those obtained from the raw data alone. For one DupER variation, it was found that DupER produced better results for low-ability simulees and worse results for those with high abilities. Findings, limitations, and recommendations for future studies are discussed. Specific recommendations for future studies include the application of Duper Augmentation (1) to empirical data, (2) with additional IRT models, and (3) the analysis of the efficacy of the procedure for different item and ability parameter distributions.

Examining the Impact of Child Psychologists' Stigmatization of Parents on Treatment Outcomes Through a Developmental Lens

The purpose of this paper is to examine how child psychologists' specialized training inhuman development may make them more prone to stigmatize the parents of their young clients. The stigmatization of parents may lead to fewer parents seeking treatment for their children and to poorer treatment outcomes for those who work with a child psychologist. The process of stigmatization is summarized to provide context for the method through which parents receive stigma. A commonly used theory of child development, Erik Erikson's stages of ego development, is outlined to provide background on how child psychologists may interpret and evaluate a child'sdevelopment. Child psychologists' may identify parenting practices that seem to hinder or stunt children's emotional development, which would make the psychologist more aptto stigmatize and isolate parents from the treatment process. To demonstrate the unique ways in which a child psychologist may stigmatize parents of children at different developmental stages two case studies are included. Finally, a theoretical model of treatment is described that may be more inclusive, and less stigmatizing of parents. This model outlines how the parents' concerns about and observations of their children should be validated and reflected in the treatment process. This treatment modality would allow for child psychologists to more actively involve parents in treatment and provide more education and support around their children's unique emotional development needs. Through this treatment model and child psychologists' awareness of and attempts to reduce the stigmatization of parents, treatment outcomes for young clients may improve.

Development and testing of the Elderly Social Vulnerability Index (ESVI): A composite indicator to measure social vulnerability in the Jamaican elderly population

Over the last two decades social vulnerability has emerged as a major area of study, with increasing attention to the study of vulnerable populations. Generally, the elderly are among the most vulnerable members of any society, and widespread population aging has led to greater focus on elderly vulnerability. However, the absence of a valid and practical measure constrains the ability of policy-makers to address this issue in a comprehensive way. This study developed a composite indicator, The Elderly Social Vulnerability Index (ESVI), and used it to undertake a comparative analysis of the availability of support for elderly Jamaicans based on their access to human, material and social resources. The results of the ESVI indicated that while the elderly are more vulnerable overall, certain segments of the population appear to be at greater risk. Females had consistently lower scores than males, and the oldest-old had the highest scores of all groups of older persons. Vulnerability scores also varied according to place of residence, with more rural parishes having higher scores than their urban counterparts. These findings support the political economy framework which locates disadvantage in old age within political and ideological structures. The findings also point to the pervasiveness and persistence of gender inequality as argued by feminist theories of aging. Based on the results of the study it is clear that there is a need for policies that target specific population segments, in addition to universal policies that could make the experience of old age less challenging for the majority of older persons. Overall, the ESVI has displayed usefulness as a tool for theoretical analysis and demonstrated its potential as a policy instrument to assist decision-makers in determining where to target their efforts as they seek to address the issue of social vulnerability in old age. Data for this study came from the 2001 population and housing census of Jamaica, with multiple imputation for missing data. The index was derived from the linear aggregation of three equally weighted domains, comprised of eleven unweighted indicators which were normalized using z-scores. Indicators were selected based on theoretical relevance and data availability.

A Q factor analysis of college undergraduate students' study behaviors

The purpose of this study was to better understand the study behaviors and habits of university undergraduate students. It was designed to determine whether undergraduate students could be grouped based on their self-reported study behaviors and if any grouping system could be determined, whether group membership was related to students’ academic achievement. A total of 152 undergraduate students voluntarily participated in the current study by completing the Study Behavior Inventory instrument. All participants were enrolled in fall semester of 2010 at Florida International University. The Q factor analysis technique using principal components extraction and a varimax rotation was used in order to examine the participants in relation to each other and to detect a pattern of intercorrelations among participants based on their self-reported study behaviors. The Q factor analysis yielded a two factor structure representing two distinct student types among participants regarding their study behaviors. The first student type (i.e., Factor 1) describes proactive learners who organize both their study materials and study time well. Type 1 students are labeled “Proactive Learners with Well-Organized Study Behaviors”. The second type (i.e., Factor 2) represents students who are poorly organized as well as being very likely to procrastinate. Type 2 students are labeled Disorganized Procrastinators. Hierarchical linear regression was employed to examine the relationship between student type and academic achievement as measured by current grade point averages (GPAs). The results showed significant differences in GPAs between Type 1 and Type 2 students at the .05 significance level. Furthermore, student type was found to be a significant predictor of academic achievement beyond and above students’ attribute variables including sex, age, major, and enrollment status. The study has several implications for educational researchers, practitioners, and policy makers in terms of improving college students' learning behaviors and outcomes.

Preliminary Development and Psychometric Evaluation of the ACL Scale: Factor Structure, Measurement Invariance, Reliability, and Validity

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Quantitative electroencephalography reveals different physiological profiles between benign and remitting-relapsing multiple sclerosis patients

BACKGROUND A possible method of finding physiological markers of multiple sclerosis (MS) is the application of EEG quantification (QEEG) of brain activity when the subject is stressed by the demands of a cognitive task. In particular, modulations of the spectral content that take place in the EEG of patients with multiple sclerosis remitting-relapsing (RRMS) and benign multiple sclerosis (BMS) during a visuo-spatial task need to be observed. METHODS The sample consisted of 19 patients with RRMS, 10 with BMS, and 21 control subjects. All patients were free of medication and had not relapsed within the last month. The power spectral density (PSD) of different EEG bands was calculated by Fast-Fourier-Transformation (FFT), those analysed being delta, theta, alpha, beta and gamma. Z-transformation was performed to observe individual profiles in each experimental group for spectral modulations. Lastly, correlation analyses was performed between QEEG values and other variables from participants in the study (age, EDSS, years of evolution and cognitive performance). RESULTS Nearly half (42%) the RRMS patients showed a statistically significant increase of two or more standard deviations (SD) compared to the control mean value for the beta-2 and gamma bands (F = 2.074, p = 0.004). These alterations were localized to the anterior regions of the right hemisphere, and bilaterally to the posterior areas of the scalp. None of the BMS patients or control subjects had values outside the range of +/- 2 SD. There were no significant correlations between these values and the other variables analysed (age, EDSS, years of evolution or behavioural performance). CONCLUSION During the attentional processing, changes in the high EEG spectrum (beta-2 and gamma) in MS patients exhibit physiological alterations that are not normally detected by spontaneous EEG analysis. The different spectral pattern between pathological and controls groups could represent specific changes for the RRMS patients, indicative of compensatory mechanisms or cortical excitatory states representative of some phases during the RRMS course that are not present in the BMS group.

An electronic portfolio for quantitative assessment of surgical skills in undergraduate medical education.

BACKGROUND We evaluated a newly designed electronic portfolio (e-Portfolio) that provided quantitative evaluation of surgical skills. Medical students at the University of Seville used the e-Portfolio on a voluntary basis for evaluation of their performance in undergraduate surgical subjects. METHODS Our new web-based e-Portfolio was designed to evaluate surgical practical knowledge and skills targets. Students recorded each activity on a form, attached evidence, and added their reflections. Students self-assessed their practical knowledge using qualitative criteria (yes/no), and graded their skills according to complexity (basic/advanced) and participation (observer/assistant/independent). A numerical value was assigned to each activity, and the values of all activities were summated to obtain the total score. The application automatically displayed quantitative feedback. We performed qualitative evaluation of the perceived usefulness of the e-Portfolio and quantitative evaluation of the targets achieved. RESULTS Thirty-seven of 112 students (33%) used the e-Portfolio, of which 87% reported that they understood the methodology of the portfolio. All students reported an improved understanding of their learning objectives resulting from the numerical visualization of progress, all students reported that the quantitative feedback encouraged their learning, and 79% of students felt that their teachers were more available because they were using the e-Portfolio. Only 51.3% of students reported that the reflective aspects of learning were useful. Individual students achieved a maximum of 65% of the total targets and 87% of the skills targets. The mean total score was 345 ± 38 points. For basic skills, 92% of students achieved the maximum score for participation as an independent operator, and all achieved the maximum scores for participation as an observer and assistant. For complex skills, 62% of students achieved the maximum score for participation as an independent operator, and 98% achieved the maximum scores for participation as an observer or assistant. CONCLUSIONS Medical students reported that use of an electronic portfolio that provided quantitative feedback on their progress was useful when the number and complexity of targets were appropriate, but not when the portfolio offered only formative evaluations based on reflection. Students felt that use of the e-Portfolio guided their learning process by indicating knowledge gaps to themselves and teachers.

Sprache und Geschlecht: Wie quantitative Methoden aus der Experimental- und Neuropsychologie einen Beitrag zur Geschlechterforschung leisten können

Wer die auf Geistes- und Sozialwissenschaften basierende Literatur aus dem Kanon der Geschlechtertheorie betrachtet, erhält den Eindruck, dass die Psychologie innerhalb dieses Forschungsbereichs keine tragende Rolle spielt. Ein möglicher Grund für die fehlende Integration psychologischer Forschung scheint ihr Zugriff auf quantitative empirische Methoden zu sein, ein Ansatz, der für die naturwissenschaftlich orientierte psychologische Forschung zentral ist. In diesem Artikel wollen wir eine Lanze brechen für eine geschlechter theoretisch informierte quantitative Experimentalpsychologie. Anhand unseres Forschungsgebietes Psychologie der Sprache illustrieren wir, an welchen Punkten die neueren behavioralen und neurowissenschaftlichen Methoden einen Beitrag leisten können und wie sie Erkenntnisse aus der qualitativen Genderforschung komplementieren. Der erste Teil befasst sich mit aktuellen Studien, die unter anderem mit Reaktionszeitmessungen und evozierten Potenzialen zeigen, wie stark Genderstereotypien in der Semantik verankert sind. Der zweite Teil thematisiert neuere Befunde aus der Neurobildgebung, die Geschlechtsunterschiede in der Lateralisierung von Sprachverarbeitung infrage stellen. Abschließend skizzieren wir neuere Forschungsansätze und plädieren für eine transdiziplinäre Kombination von qualitativen und quantitativen Methoden.

Multicultural education in Clinical Psychology Programs and the needs of racial minority trainees.

With more racial minorities entering the field of clinical psychology, the training needs of racial minority students in doctoral programs must be considered. Few studies address training in multicultural education from the perspective of racial minority students despite their increasing presence in the field. This may be due to assumptions educators make based on their level of competency in the area of multiculturalism. Thus, the goal of this exploratory study is to help determine the multicultural training needs of racial minorities enrolled in clinical psychology programs. This exploratory study was quantitative and used snowball sampling to survey racial minority trainees in doctoral programs in clinical psychology. Sixty one participants completed the survey. Results indicated that multicultural/diversity classes are valued by racial minority students and are relevant to them. However, the majority of students do not feel challenged, suggesting that their needs are not being fully met. It is recommended that their unique needs be included in the curriculum for multicultural education.

The perceptual factors in reading; a quantitative study of the psychological processes involved in work perception.

Columbia contributions to philosophy and psychology, vol. XVII, no. l.