The economics of hydro-meteorological disasters: approaching the estimation of the total costs

21 p.

Notas sobre el "primum cognitum" en Cayetano y su vínculo con la metafísica

Cayetano tuvo un papel protagónico en los debates intelectuales de su época (s. XVI), destacándose como un auténtico adalid del tomismo; inclusive muchas de sus tesis pasaron a formar parte de tal doctrina, las cuales –a veces matizadas y otras no tanto– perviven hasta nuestros días. Entre los diversos temas que afrontó se destaca su particular noción de primum cognitum. Aquí, partimos del hecho de que la tradición tomista no ha visto mayores inconvenientes en equiparar lo que entienden Cayetano y el Aquinate por el ens primo cadit; empero nosotros estamos en condiciones de afirmar que tal equiparación al menos es problemática. En este sentido, nos ocuparemos de realizar un primer acercamiento al tema del ente primer conocido cayetaniano para intentar mostrar su real significado. Asimismo, procuraremos ver, ayudados por los aportes de algunos estudiosos contemporáneos –en especial el de Lawrence Dewan–, hasta qué punto tal noción se corresponde o no con los desarrollos teóricos de Tomás de Aquino, sobre todo con el vínculo entre el primer conocido y el ente como objeto de la metafísica.

Socio-economic inequalities in cerebral palsy prevalence in the United Kingdom: a register-based study

Evidence is unclear as to whether there is a socio-economic gradient in cerebral palsy (CP) prevalence beyond what would be expected from the socio-economic gradient for low birthweight, a strong risk factor for CP. We conducted a population-based study in five regions of the UK with CP registers, to investigate the relationship between CP prevalence and socio-economic deprivation, and how it varies by region, by birthweight and by severity and type of CP. The total study population was 1 657 569 livebirths, born between 1984 and 1997. Wards of residence were classified into five quintiles according to a census-based deprivation index, from Q1 (least deprived) to Q5 (most deprived). Socio-economic gradients were modelled by Poisson regression, and region-specific estimates combined by meta-analysis.

The prevalence of postneonatally acquired CP was 0.14 per 1000 livebirths overall. The mean deprivation gradient, expressed as the relative risk in the most deprived vs. the least deprived quintile, was 1.86 (95% confidence interval [95% CI 1.19, 2.88]). The prevalence of non-acquired CP was 2.22 per 1000 livebirths. For non-acquired CP the gradient was 1.16 [95% CI 1.00, 1.35]. Evidence for a socio-economic gradient was strongest for spastic bilateral cases (1.32 [95% CI 1.09, 1.59]) and cases with severe intellectual impairment (1.59 [95% CI 1.06, 2.39]). There was evidence for differences in gradient between regions. The gradient of risk of CP among normal birthweight births was not statistically significant overall (1.21 [95% CI 0.95, 1.54]), but was significant in two regions. There was non-significant evidence of a reduction in gradients over time.

The reduction of the higher rates of postneonatally acquired CP in the more socioeconomically deprived areas is a clear goal for prevention. While we found evidence for a socio-economic gradient for non-acquired CP of antenatal or perinatal origin, the picture was not consistent across regions, and there was some evidence of a decline in inequalities over time. The steeper gradients in some regions for normal birthweight cases and cases with severe intellectual impairment require further investigation.

Clara Bog: An ombotrophic groundwater dependant terrestrial ecosystem (Submitted)

Comparison of flow duration curves for a weir draining an undrained raised peat with those generated 20 years previously reveal that more recent curves reflect to be flatter with a lower Q95/Q5 ratio. Comparison of the bog topography for the same period revealed that although marginal drainage/peat reclamation had resulted in desiccation of peat around the bog margin and more frequent intense runoff, the central part of the bog had subsided to form an enclosed basin ,resulting in the creation of newly formed lakes that gave the central part of the bog an improved capacity to store, and more slowly discharge, water. Interrogation of groundwater monitoring data revealed a net decline in groundwater levels of up to three metres in the glacial tills underlying the bog associated with deepening and expansion of a marginal drain network which penetrated the base of the peat. Comparing organic carbon levels in peat the central part of the bog over a ten year period revealed an overall increase, with changes being most marked in deeper fen peat layers. These findings suggest that the decline in groundwater levels in the peat substrate resulted in an increase in effective stress in the peat causing greater subsidence in the central part of the bog due to greater overall thickness. Study results highlight how the hydrology of apparently isolated obotrophic raised bog ecosystems may be influenced by groundwater pressures in deeper deposits, and how marginal drains may have the capacity to impact areas at significant distances.

Hyperoxia Depletes (6R)-5,6,7,8-Tetrahydrobiopterin Levels in the Neonatal Retina: Implications for Nitric Oxide Synthase Function in Retinopathy

Retinopathy of prematurity is a sight-threatening complication of premature birth caused by nitrooxidativeinsult to the developing retinal vasculature during therapeutic hyperoxia exposure and laterischemia-induced neovascularization on supplemental oxygen withdrawal. In the vasodegenerativephase, during hyperoxia, defective endothelial nitric oxide synthase (NOS) produces reactive oxygenand nitrogen free radicals rather than vasoprotective nitric oxide for unclear reasons. More important,NOS critically depends on the availability of the cofactor (6R)-5,6,7,8-tetrahydrobiopterin (BH4).Because BH4 synthesis is controlled enzymatically by GTP cyclohydrolase (GTPCH), we used GTPCHdepletedmice [hyperphenylalanaemia strain Q4 (hph1)] to investigate the impact of hyperoxia on BH4bioavailability and retinal vascular pathology in the neonate. Hyperoxia decreased BH4 in retinas,lungs, and aortas in all experimental groups, resulting in a dose-dependent decrease in NOS activityand, in the wild-type group, elevated NOS-derived superoxide. Retinal dopamine levels were similarlydiminished, consistent with the dependence of tyrosine hydroxylase on BH4. Despite greater depletionof BH4, the hphþ/ and hph1/ groups did not show exacerbated hyperoxia-induced vessel closure,but exhibited greater vascular protection and reduced progression to neovascular disease. This vasoprotectiveeffect was independent of enhanced circulating vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF),which was reduced by hyperoxia, but Q5 to local ganglion cell layerederived VEGF. A constitutively higherlevel of VEGF expression associated with retinal development protects GTPCH-deficient neonates fromoxygen-induced vascular damage.

Fatores escolares do envolvimento dos alunos na escola : um estudo com alunos adolescentes

Tese de mestrado, Educação (Área de especialização Formação Pessoal e Social), Universidade de Lisboa, Instituto de Educação, 2015

The Effects of the Length of the Period of Commitment on the Size of Stable International Environmental Agreements

This paper extends the standard model of self-enforcing dynamic international environmental agreements by allowing the length of the period of commitment of such agreements to vary as a parameter. It analyzes the pattern of behavior of the size of stable coalitions, the stock of pollutant and the emission rate as a function of the length of the period of commitment. It is shown that the length of the period of commitment can have very significant effects on the equilibrium. Three distinct intervals for the length of the period of commitment are identified, across which the equilibrium and its dynamic behavior differ considerably. Whereas for sufficiently high values of the period of commitment only self-enforcing agreements of two countries are possible, for sufficiently low such values full cooperation can be generated. Lengths of periods of commitment between those two thresholds are characterized by an inverse relationship between the length of commitment and the membership size of the agreement. This suggests that considerable attention should be given to the determination of the length of such international agreements.

Étude de l'association entre la sévérité des traumatismes crâniens et les inégalités sociales.

Introduction : La réduction des inégalités sociales de santé est un objectif de santé publique au Canada. Les liens entre les facteurs socio-économiques et les traumatismes en général ont été abondamment mesurés et illustrés notamment en pédiatrie, mais l’association entre les traumatismes crâniens et les inégalités sociales n’est pas assez investiguée dans la littérature. L’intérêt de ce travail en santé publique nous permettra de mieux connaitre les liens entre la défavorisation et les traumatismes crâniens particulièrement la sévérité. Objectif : L’objectif général de cette étude est d’examiner la relation entre les traumatismes crâniens et le statut socio-économique. Méthode : L’échantillon comprend 2269 patients ayant consulté le service d’urgence de l’Hôpital du Sacré Coeur de Montréal entre le 17 Mars 2008 et le 11 Janvier 2012, âgés de 14 ans et plus et habitant Montréal et Laval. Des analyses de régression logistiques ont été appliquées pour examiner la relation entre le quintile du statut socio-économique (mesuré à l’aide d’un proxy écologique) et la sévérité du traumatisme crânien (mesuré à l’aide de la tomodensitométrie). Résultat : A Montréal et à Laval, la cote d’avoir un scan normal est plus élevée chez les patients de quintile de revenu plus pauvre Q1 par rapport au quintile de revenu plus riche Q5, avec les valeurs respectives de 1,104 et 1,522 pour les régions de Montréal et Laval. A Laval lorsqu’on passe du quintile le plus pauvre Q1 au quintile le plus riche Q5, les cotes diminuent de 1,522 pour Q1; 1,302 pour le quintile de revenu bas; 1,126 pour le quintile de revenu moyen; 1,176 pour le quintile élevé à 1 pour le quintile le plus riche (quintile de référence). Conclusion : Bien que la relation entre les traumatismes et le statut socio-économique soit non significative, plusieurs questions se posent à travers ce mémoire notamment les causes différentes du traumatisme crânien en fonction du statut socio-économique et le territoire de résidence. D’autres recherches plus approfondies seraient utiles pour mieux informer les programmes de santé publique. Mots Clés : Traumatisme crânien, Statut socio-économique, Santé publique, Inégalités sociales, Chutes, Accidents de la route, Causes de traumatisme, Quintile de revenu

Déterminants et inégalités d’utilisation des services obstétricaux essentiels dans les pays à revenu faible et intermédiaire

Introduction Chaque année, 289 000 femmes décèdent des complications reliées à la grossesse et à l’accouchement, et 2.9 millions de nouveau-nés décèdent avant d’atteindre 28 jours de vie. La quasi-totalité (99%) des décès maternels et néonataux ont cours dans les pays à revenu faible et intermédiaire (PRFI). L’utilisation des services obstétricaux essentiels, incluant l’assistance qualifiée à l’accouchement (AA) et les services postnataux, contribue largement à la réduction de la morbidité et de la mortalité maternelle et néonatale. Il est donc essentiel d’évaluer les déterminants et les inégalités de couverture de ces services, en vue d’informer l’élaboration de politiques et de programmes de santé dans les PRFI. Objectifs 1. Étudier systématiquement les déterminants et inégalités socioéconomiques, géographiques et démographiques dans l’utilisation des services de santé postnataux dans les PRFI. 2. Évaluer l’effet de la politique de subvention des frais aux usagers introduite au Burkina Faso en 2007 sur les taux d’utilisation de l’assistance qualifiée à l’accouchement, en fonction du statut socioéconomique (SSE). Méthodes 1. Nous avons réalisé une revue systématique sur l’utilisation des services postnataux dans les PRFI, en fonction des déterminants socioéconomiques, géographiques et démographiques. Notre étude incluait une méta-analyse de l’utilisation des services selon les quintiles de SSE et le milieu de vie (urbain vs. rural). 2. Nous avons utilisé un devis quasi-expérimental. Les sources de données consistaient en deux sondages représentatifs (n=1408 et n=1403), conduits respectivement en 2008 et 2010 auprès de femmes des districts sanitaires de Houndé et de Ziniaré au Burkina Faso, en plus d’une enquête sur la qualité structurelle des soins offerts dans les centres de santé primaire. Nous avons utilisé des modèles de régression de Poisson, multi-niveaux et segmentés, afin d’évaluer l’effet de la politique de subvention sur les taux d’AA. Nous avons estimé des ratios et différences de taux d’incidence ajustés, en fonction du SSE et du temps écoulé depuis l’introduction de la subvention. Résultats 1. Les estimés de ratio de cotes (RC) agrégés (IC 95%) pour les femmes de SSE élevé (5e quintile ou Q5), Q4, Q3 et Q2 (référence : quintile le plus pauvre, Q1) étaient respectivement : 2.27 (1.75 – 2.93); 1.60 (1.30-1.98); 1.32 (1.12-1.55); et 1.14 (0.96-1.34). La méta-analyse a aussi démontré un gradient d’utilisation des services postnataux entre les femmes urbaines et rurales : RC (IC 95%) = 1.36 (1.01-1.81). L’évaluation narrative a par ailleurs identifié une différence dans la couverture de services selon le niveau d’éducation. 2. Pour les femmes de faible SSE, le taux d’AA était 24% plus élevé (IC 95% : 4-46%) immédiatement après l’introduction de la subvention, en comparaison au taux attendu en l’absence de ladite subvention. L’ampleur de l’effet a diminué dans le temps, correspondant à des estimés (IC 95%) de 22% (3-45%) à 6 mois, 20% (1-43%) à 12 mois, et 17% (-4-42%) à 24 mois après l’introduction de la subvention. La force d’association variait selon les strates de SSE, l’effet le plus prononcé étant observé au sein du SSE le plus faible. Conclusions 1. L’utilisation des services postnataux demeure inéquitable selon le SSE et l’accessibilité géographique aux formations sanitaires dans les PRFI. 2. Notre étude suggère que l’introduction de la subvention des frais aux usagers au Burkina Faso résulte en une augmentation soutenue dans le taux d’assistance qualifiée à l’accouchement, particulièrement chez les femmes de faible SSE. Cette évidence scientifique devrait alimenter l’élaboration de programmes de santé materno-infantile, en plus de guider la planification de politiques et le renforcement des systèmes de santé des PRFI.

Synthesis, Characterization and Properties of Ca5A2TiO12 (A=Nb, Ta) Ceramic Dielectric Materials for Applications in Microwave Telecommunication Systems

Microwave ceramic dielectric materials Ca5Nb2TiO12 and Ca5Ta2TiO12 have been prepared by a conventional solid-state ceramic process. The structure was studied by X-ray diffraction and the dielectric properties were characterized at microwave frequencies. The ceramics posses a relatively high dielectric constant, very low dielectric loss (Q5 x f > 30000GHz) and small temperature variation of resonant frequency. These materials are potential candidates for dielectric resonator applications in microwave integrated circuits. [DOI: 10. 1 143/JJAP.41.3834]

Obligación política en el caso del genocidio armenio

La autoridad legítima del soberano y la obligación política del ciudadano constituyen el fundamento del poder del Estado, no obstante, una y otra se ven seriamente cuestionadas ante situaciones de extrema injusticia como lo es el Genocidio. En casos como este la obligación de obedecer la ley por parte del súbdito puede e, incluso, debe ser exceptuada y sustituida por los mandatos de la razón moral. El caso de un tribunal alemán que decide absolver al asesino del principal perpetrador del Genocidio Armenio, desobedeciendo de esta manera la ley penal de su país, apoya la tesis enunciada apoyándose en argumentos de la teoría contractualista de Thomas Hobbes y John Locke. La misma tesis es analizada desde la perspectiva del Juego Limpio, en este caso la conclusión no es tan clara, sin embargo, plantea un nuevo problema sobre el Derecho de los Pueblos que deberá ser abordado en otra instancia.

A comparative analysis of projected impacts of climate change on river runoff from global and catchment-scale hydrological models

We present a comparative analysis of projected impacts of climate change on river runoff from two types of distributed hydrological model, a global hydrological model (GHM) and catchment-scale hydrological models (CHM). Analyses are conducted for six catchments that are global in coverage and feature strong contrasts in spatial scale as well as climatic and development conditions. These include the Liard (Canada), Mekong (SE Asia), Okavango (SW Africa), Rio Grande (Brazil), Xiangu (China) and Harper's Brook (UK). A single GHM (Mac-PDM.09) is applied to all catchments whilst different CHMs are applied for each catchment. The CHMs typically simulate water resources impacts based on a more explicit representation of catchment water resources than that available from the GHM, and the CHMs include river routing. Simulations of average annual runoff, mean monthly runoff and high (Q5) and low (Q95) monthly runoff under baseline (1961-1990) and climate change scenarios are presented. We compare the simulated runoff response of each hydrological model to (1) prescribed increases in global mean temperature from the HadCM3 climate model and (2)a prescribed increase in global-mean temperature of 2oC for seven GCMs to explore response to climate model and structural uncertainty. We find that differences in projected changes of mean annual runoff between the two types of hydrological model can be substantial for a given GCM, and they are generally larger for indicators of high and low flow. However, they are relatively small in comparison to the range of projections across the seven GCMs. Hence, for the six catchments and seven GCMs we considered, climate model structural uncertainty is greater than the uncertainty associated with the type of hydrological model applied. Moreover, shifts in the seasonal cycle of runoff with climate change are presented similarly by both hydrological models, although for some catchments the monthly timing of high and low flows differs.This implies that for studies that seek to quantify and assess the role of climate model uncertainty on catchment-scale runoff, it may be equally as feasible to apply a GHM as it is to apply a CHM, especially when climate modelling uncertainty across the range of available GCMs is as large as it currently is. Whilst the GHM is able to represent the broad climate change signal that is represented by the CHMs, we find, however, that for some catchments there are differences between GHMs and CHMs in mean annual runoff due to differences in potential evaporation estimation methods, in the representation of the seasonality of runoff, and in the magnitude of changes in extreme monthly runoff, all of which have implications for future water management issues.

Assessing the impacts of climate change on river flows in England using the UKCP09 climate change projections

This paper presents an assessment of the effects of climate change on river flow regimes in representative English catchments, using the UKCP09 climate projections. These comprise a set of 10,000 coherent climate scenarios, used here (i) to evaluate the distribution of potential changes in hydrological behaviour and (ii) to construct relationships between indicators of climate change and hydrological change. The study uses six catchments, and focuses on change in average flow, high flow (Q5) and low flow (Q95). There is a large range in hydrological change in each catchment between the plausible UKCP09 climate projections, with differences between catchments largely due to differences in catchment geology and baseline water balance. The range in change between the UKCP09 projections is in most catchments smaller than the range between changes with scenarios based on the CMIP3 ensemble of climate models, and earlier UK scenarios produce changes that tend towards the lower (drier) end of the UKCP09 range. The difference between emissions scenarios is small compared to the range across the 10,000 scenarios. Changes in high flows are largely driven by changes in winter precipitation, whilst changes in low flows are determined by changes in summer precipitation and temperature.