Regional integration and public policy. Evaluation of the European experience and possible implications for Latin American integration

Includes bibliography

Applying a public policy evaluation methodology for local socio-economic impacts: an exploration in realistic modelling

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Essays in policy evaluation

This dissertation consists of three empirical studies that aim at providing new evidence in the field of public policy evaluation. In particular, the first two chapters focus on the effects of the European cohesion policy, while the third chapter assesses the effectiveness of Italian labour market incentives in reducing long-term unemployment. The first study analyses the effect of EU funds on life satisfaction across European regions , under the assumption that projects financed by structural funds in the fields of employment, education, health and environment may affect the overall quality of life in recipient regions. Using regional data from the European Social Survey in 2002-2006, it resorts to a regression discontinuity design, where the discontinuity is provided by the institutional framework of the policy. The second study aims at estimating the impact of large transfers from a centralized authority to a local administration on the incidence of white collar crimes. It merges a unique dataset on crimes committed in Italian municipalities between 2007 and 2011 with information on the disbursement of EU structural funds in 2007-2013 programming period, employing an instrumental variable estimation strategy that exploits the variation in the electoral cycle at local level. The third study analyses the impact of an Italian labour market policy that allowed firms to cut their labour costs on open-ended job contracts when hiring long-term unemployed workers. It takes advantage of a unique dataset that draws information from the unemployment lists in Veneto region and it resorts to a regression discontinuity approach to estimate the effect of the policy on the job finding rate of long-term unemployed workers.

Policy evaluation with travel behavior models : methodological issues and case studies.

Mode of access: Internet.

Review of Automated Vehicle Technology: Policy and Implementation Implications; Version 1.0; RB28-015, 2016

This report provides recommendations for the state of Iowa over the next five years in regards to automated vehicle policy development. These administrative, planning, legal, and community strategy recommendations for government agencies include: • Encouraging automation by preparing government agencies, infrastructure, leveraging procurement, and advocating for safety mandates • Adjusting long range planning processes by identifying and incorporating a wide range of new automation scenarios • Beginning to analyze and, as necessary, clarify existing law as it apples to automated driving • Auditing existing law • Enforcing existing laws • Ensuring vehicle owners and operators bear the true cost of driving • Embracing flexibility by giving agencies the statutory authority to achieve regulatory goals through different means, allowing them to make small-scale exemptions to statutory regimes and clarifying their enforcement discretion • Thinking locally and preparing publicly • Sharing the steps being taken to promote (as well as to anticipate and regulate) automated driving • Instituting public education about automated vehicle technologies.

An examination of attitude toward change as a predictor of policy/program implementation

Policy/program implementation, e.g., the process of fulfilling policy/program directives, is fundamentally tied to change. Implementation studies have examined the process, identifying many critical organizational variables although individuals perform the activities.^ Many of the studies are predicated on the rational, goal oriented model of organizations and examine implementation, presenting only the goal-oriented view. Organizational change and its resistance, however, are not fully explained by the rational model of organizations. There are other schools of thought providing different views of organizations from which explanation may emerge. Bolman and Deal (1984, 1991a, 1994) provide a different perspective for examining organizations Bolman and Deal argue organizations should be viewed through four different frames or lenses. Framing and reframing organizational action captures the complexity of action and provides better understanding of organizational processes. Understanding of implementation of policies/programs also will benefit from the use of the four-frame approach.^ The goal of this research is to provide a better understanding of the implementation process by examining individual attitudes toward change, the dependent variable of this research, and studying the relationship between the dependent variable and frame. The research was conducted in two phases. In Phase One, a survey was sent to 306 school administrators and teachers in magnet programs in Dade County, Florida. The survey instrument was composed of 55 questions including six from Bolman and Deal's Leadership Orientation Survey (1988) and 38 questions about organizational change. In Phase Two, more in-depth analysis of four school was conducted, to further explore the relationship between frame and attitude toward change.^ The results revealed that frame was a factor in explaining differences in personal Attitude Toward Change and Comfort Level with Change. Individuals using the symbolic frame had more positive attitudes toward change and were also more comfortable with change. The results of Phase Two of the research partially supported this finding in that the most fully implemented program was the product of an administrator who had chosen the symbolic frame. ^

Policy evaluation and uncertainty about the effects of oil prices on economic activity

This paper addresses the issue of policy evaluation in a context in which policymakers are uncertain about the effects of oil prices on economic performance. I consider models of the economy inspired by Solow (1980), Blanchard and Gali (2007), Kim and Loungani (1992) and Hamilton (1983, 2005), which incorporate different assumptions on the channels through which oil prices have an impact on economic activity. I first study the characteristics of the model space and I analyze the likelihood of the different specifications. I show that the existence of plausible alternative representations of the economy forces the policymaker to face the problem of model uncertainty. Then, I use the Bayesian approach proposed by Brock, Durlauf and West (2003, 2007) and the minimax approach developed by Hansen and Sargent (2008) to integrate this form of uncertainty into policy evaluation. I find that, in the environment under analysis, the standard Taylor rule is outperformed under a number of criteria by alternative simple rules in which policymakers introduce persistence in the policy instrument and respond to changes in the real price of oil.

Macroeconomic modeling for monetary policy evaluation

We describe some of the main features of the recent vintage macroeconomic models used for monetary policy evaluation. We point to some of the key differences with respect to the earlier generation ofmacro models, and highlight the insights for policy that these new frameworks have to offer. Our discussion emphasizes two key aspects of the new models: the significant role of expectations of future policy actions in the monetary transmission mechanism, and the importance for the central bank of tracking of the flexible price equilibrium values of the natural levels of output and the real interest rate. We argue that both features have important implications for the conduct of monetary policy.

Lectio praecursoria: Environmental policy evaluation concepts exemplified in the context of the European Unions strategy for better regulation

Lectio praecursoria 3.2.2006 Tampereen yliopisto

Essays in partial identification and applications to treatment effects and policy evaluation.

Dans cette thèse, je me suis interessé à l’identification partielle des effets de traitements dans différents modèles de choix discrets avec traitements endogènes. Les modèles d’effets de traitement ont pour but de mesurer l’impact de certaines interventions sur certaines variables d’intérêt. Le type de traitement et la variable d’intérêt peuvent être défini de manière générale afin de pouvoir être appliqué à plusieurs différents contextes. Il y a plusieurs exemples de traitement en économie du travail, de la santé, de l’éducation, ou en organisation industrielle telle que les programmes de formation à l’emploi, les techniques médicales, l’investissement en recherche et développement, ou l’appartenance à un syndicat. La décision d’être traité ou pas n’est généralement pas aléatoire mais est basée sur des choix et des préférences individuelles. Dans un tel contexte, mesurer l’effet du traitement devient problématique car il faut tenir compte du biais de sélection. Plusieurs versions paramétriques de ces modèles ont été largement étudiées dans la littérature, cependant dans les modèles à variation discrète, la paramétrisation est une source importante d’identification. Dans un tel contexte, il est donc difficile de savoir si les résultats empiriques obtenus sont guidés par les données ou par la paramétrisation imposée au modèle. Etant donné, que les formes paramétriques proposées pour ces types de modèles n’ont généralement pas de fondement économique, je propose dans cette thèse de regarder la version nonparamétrique de ces modèles. Ceci permettra donc de proposer des politiques économiques plus robustes. La principale difficulté dans l’identification nonparamétrique de fonctions structurelles, est le fait que la structure suggérée ne permet pas d’identifier un unique processus générateur des données et ceci peut être du soit à la présence d’équilibres multiples ou soit à des contraintes sur les observables. Dans de telles situations, les méthodes d’identifications traditionnelles deviennent inapplicable d’où le récent développement de la littérature sur l’identification dans les modèles incomplets. Cette littérature porte une attention particuliere à l’identification de l’ensemble des fonctions structurelles d’intérêt qui sont compatibles avec la vraie distribution des données, cet ensemble est appelé : l’ensemble identifié. Par conséquent, dans le premier chapitre de la thèse, je caractérise l’ensemble identifié pour les effets de traitements dans le modèle triangulaire binaire. Dans le second chapitre, je considère le modèle de Roy discret. Je caractérise l’ensemble identifié pour les effets de traitements dans un modèle de choix de secteur lorsque la variable d’intérêt est discrète. Les hypothèses de sélection du secteur comprennent le choix de sélection simple, étendu et généralisé de Roy. Dans le dernier chapitre, je considère un modèle à variable dépendante binaire avec plusieurs dimensions d’hétérogéneité, tels que les jeux d’entrées ou de participation. je caractérise l’ensemble identifié pour les fonctions de profits des firmes dans un jeux avec deux firmes et à information complète. Dans tout les chapitres, l’ensemble identifié des fonctions d’intérêt sont écrites sous formes de bornes et assez simple pour être estimées à partir des méthodes d’inférence existantes.

A semiotic approach of multi-agent simulation for policy evaluation

Nowadays the changing environment becomes the main challenge for most of organizations, since they have to evaluate proper policies to adapt to the environment. In this paper, we propose a multi-agent simulation method to evaluate policies based on complex adaptive system theory. Furthermore, we propose a semiotic EDA (Epistemic, Deontic, Axiological) agent model to simulate agent's behavior in the system by incorporating the social norms reflecting the policy. A case study is also provided to validate our approach. Our research present better adaptability and validity than the qualitative analysis and experiment approach and the semiotic agent model provides high creditability to simulate agents' behavior.

Avaliação de implementação da Educação Superior a Distância: o caso da Secretaria de Educação a Distância da Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte SEDIS/UFRN

The considerable expansion of Distance Education registered in recent years in Brazil raises the importance of debate about how the implementation of this policy has been happening so that formulators and implementers make better informed decisions, maximizing results, identifying successes and overcoming bottlenecks. This study aims to evaluate the implementation process of Distance Education policy by Secretary of Distance Education of the Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte. For this, we sought to use an evaluation proposal consistent with this policy, and came to the one developed by Sonia Draibe (2001), which suggests an analysis called anatomy of evaluation general process. To achieve the objectives, we made a qualitative research, case study type, using documentary research and semi-structured interviews with three groups of subjects who belong to the policy: managers, technicians and beneficiaries. It was concluded that: the implementation process needs a open contact channel between the management and technicians and beneficiaries; the lack of clarity in the dissemination of information between technicians produces noises that affects the outcomes; the absence of dissemination of internal and external actions contributes to the perpetuation of prejudice in relation to Distance Education; using selection criteria based on competence and merit contributes to form a team of skilled technicians to perform their function within the policy; an institution that do not enable technicians generates gaps that possibly will turn into policy implementation failures; all subjects involved in politics need internal evaluations to contribute to improvements in the implementation process, however, a gap is opened between the subjects if there is no socialization of results; the existence of an internal structure that manipulates financial resources and balances the budget from different maintainer programs is essencial; the consortium between IES and municipalities in presential support poles are bottlenecks in the process, since beneficiaries are exposed to inconsistency and lack of commitment of these local municipalities

Rationalizing social policy: evaluation and viability

Includes bibliography