Sampling stored-product insect pests : a comparison of four statistical sampling models for probability of pest detection

Background: Developing sampling strategies to target biological pests such as insects in stored grain is inherently difficult owing to species biology and behavioural characteristics. The design of robust sampling programmes should be based on an underlying statistical distribution that is sufficiently flexible to capture variations in the spatial distribution of the target species. Results: Comparisons are made of the accuracy of four probability-of-detection sampling models - the negative binomial model,1 the Poisson model,1 the double logarithmic model2 and the compound model3 - for detection of insects over a broad range of insect densities. Although the double log and negative binomial models performed well under specific conditions, it is shown that, of the four models examined, the compound model performed the best over a broad range of insect spatial distributions and densities. In particular, this model predicted well the number of samples required when insect density was high and clumped within experimental storages. Conclusions: This paper reinforces the need for effective sampling programs designed to detect insects over a broad range of spatial distributions. The compound model is robust over a broad range of insect densities and leads to substantial improvement in detection probabilities within highly variable systems such as grain storage.

The impact of target board recommendations in Australian takeovers

This paper examines the impact of targe board recommendations on the probability of the bid being successful in the Australian takeovers context. Specifically, we model the success rate of the bid as a binary dependent variable and target board recommendations or the board hostility as our key independent variable by using logistic regression framework. Our model also includes bid structures and conditions variables (such as initial bid premium, bid conditions, toehold, and interlocking relationship) and bid events (such as panel and bid duration) as our control variables. Overall, we find board hostility has statistically significant negative effect on the success rate of the bid and almost all control variables (except for the initial bid premium) are statistically significant with the correct sign. That is, we find toehold, the percentage of share required to make the bid becomes successful, and the unconditional bid have positive impact on the success rate of the bid, at least as predictive determinants prior to the release of any hostile recommendation. Consistent with Craswell (2004), we also find the negative relation between interlocking relationship and the success rate of the bid. Our finding supports that from target investors’ point of view, interlock is consistent with the negative story of self interest by directors. Finally, like Walking (1985), we find that the initial bid premium does not have influence on the success rate of the bid. Hence our results reinstate Walking’s bid premium puzzle in Australian context.

Involvement of target contrast in visual masking location tasks deficients in myopia

Purpose: There have been few studies of visual temporal processing of myopic eyes. This study investigated the visual performance of emmetropic and myopic eyes using a backward visual masking location task. Methods: Data were collected for 39 subjects (15 emmetropes, 12 stable myopes, 12 progressing myopes). In backward visual masking, a target’s visibility is reduced by a mask presented in quick succession ‘after’ the target. The target and mask stimuli were presented at different interstimulus intervals (from 12 to 300 ms). The task involved locating the position of a target letter with both a higher (seven per cent) and a lower (five per cent) contrast. Results: Emmetropic subjects had significantly better performance for the lower contrast location task than the myopes (F2,36 = 22.88; p < 0.001) but there was no difference between the progressing and stable myopic groups (p = 0.911). There were no differences between the groups for the higher contrast location task (F2,36 = 0.72, p = 0.495). No relationship between task performance and either the magnitude of myopia or axial length was found for either task. Conclusions: A location task deficit was observed in myopes only for lower contrast stimuli. Both emmetropic and myopic groups had better performance for the higher contrast task compared to the lower contrast task, with myopes showing considerable improvement. This suggests that five per cent contrast may be the contrast threshold required to bias the task towards the magnocellular system (where myopes have a temporal processing deficit). Alternatively, the task may be sensitive to the contrast sensitivity of the observer.

Estimating the probability of an invalid match for matching using the rank transform

A fundamental problem faced by stereo matching algorithms is the matching or correspondence problem. A wide range of algorithms have been proposed for the correspondence problem. For all matching algorithms, it would be useful to be able to compute a measure of the probability of correctness, or reliability of a match. This paper focuses in particular on one class for matching algorithms, which are based on the rank transform. The interest in these algorithms for stereo matching stems from their invariance to radiometric distortion, and their amenability to fast hardware implementation. This work differs from previous work in that it derives, from first principles, an expression for the probability of a correct match. This method was based on an enumeration of all possible symbols for matching. The theoretical results for disparity error prediction, obtained using this method, were found to agree well with experimental results. However, disadvantages of the technique developed in this chapter are that it is not easily applicable to real images, and also that it is too computationally expensive for practical window sizes. Nevertheless, the exercise provides an interesting and novel analysis of match reliability.

Stepping accuracy and visuomotor control among older adults : effect of target contrast and refractive blur

Purpose: Older adults have increased visual impairment, including refractive blur from presbyopic multifocal spectacle corrections, and are less able to extract visual information from the environment to plan and execute appropriate stepping actions; these factors may collectively contribute to their higher risk of falls. The aim of this study was to examine the effect of refractive blur and target visibility on the stepping accuracy and visuomotor stepping strategies of older adults during a precision stepping task. Methods: Ten healthy, visually normal older adults (mean age 69.4 ± 5.2 years) walked up and down a 20 m indoor corridor stepping onto selected high and low-contrast targets while viewing under three visual conditions: best-corrected vision, +2.00 DS and +3.00 DS blur; the order of blur conditions was randomised between participants. Stepping accuracy and gaze behaviours were recorded using an eyetracker and a secondary hand-held camera. Results: Older adults made significantly more stepping errors with increasing levels of blur, particularly exhibiting under-stepping (stepping more posteriorly) onto the targets (p<0.05), while visuomotor stepping strategies did not significantly alter. Stepping errors were also significantly greater for the low compared to the high contrast targets and differences in visuomotor stepping strategies were found, including increased duration of gaze and increased interval between gaze onset and initiation of the leg swing when stepping onto the low contrast targets. Conclusions: These findings highlight that stepping accuracy is reduced for low visibility targets, and for high levels of refractive blur at levels typically present in multifocal spectacle corrections, despite significant changes in some of the visuomotor stepping strategies. These findings highlight the importance of maximising the contrast of objects in the environment, and may help explain why older adults wearing multifocal spectacle corrections exhibit an increased risk of falling.

The impact of inter-fraction set-up errors on the probability of pulmonary and cardiac complication in left-sided breast cancer patients

Purpose This study evaluated the impact of patient set-up errors on the probability of pulmonary and cardiac complications in the irradiation of left-sided breast cancer. Methods and Materials Using the CMS XiO Version 4.6 (CMS Inc., St Louis, MO) radiotherapy planning system's NTCP algorithm and the Lyman -Kutcher-Burman (LKB) model, we calculated the DVH indices for the ipsilateral lung and heart and the resultant normal tissue complication probabilities (NTCP) for radiation-induced pneumonitis and excess cardiac mortality in 12 left-sided breast cancer patients. Results Isocenter shifts in the posterior direction had the greatest effect on the lung V20, heart V25, mean and maximum doses to the lung and the heart. Dose volume histograms (DVH) results show that the ipsilateral lung V20 tolerance was exceeded in 58% of the patients after 1cm posterior shifts. Similarly, the heart V25 tolerance was exceeded after 1cm antero-posterior and left-right isocentric shifts in 70% of the patients. The baseline NTCPs for radiation-induced pneumonitis ranged from 0.73% - 3.4% with a mean value of 1.7%. The maximum reported NTCP for radiation-induced pneumonitis was 5.8% (mean 2.6%) after 1cm posterior isocentric shift. The NTCP for excess cardiac mortality were 0 % in 100% of the patients (n=12) before and after setup error simulations. Conclusions Set-up errors in left sided breast cancer patients have a statistically significant impact on the Lung NTCPs and DVH indices. However, with a central lung distance of 3cm or less (CLD <3cm), and a maximum heart distance of 1.5cm or less (MHD<1.5cm), the treatment plans could tolerate set-up errors of up to 1cm without any change in the NTCP to the heart.

Development of a model based on Bayesian networks to estimate the probability of sheep lice presence at shearing

This paper describes the development of a model, based on Bayesian networks, to estimate the likelihood that sheep flocks are infested with lice at shearing and to assist farm managers or advisers to assess whether or not to apply a lousicide treatment. The risk of lice comes from three main sources: (i) lice may have been present at the previous shearing and not eradicated; (ii) lice may have been introduced with purchased sheep; and (iii) lice may have entered with strays. A Bayesian network is used to assess the probability of each of these events independently and combine them for an overall assessment. Rubbing is a common indicator of lice but there are other causes too. If rubbing has been observed, an additional Bayesian network is used to assess the probability that lice are the cause. The presence or absence of rubbing and its possible cause are combined with these networks to improve the overall risk assessment.

Improving the estimation of probability of bidder participation in procurement auctions

Anticipating the number and identity of bidders has significant influence in many theoretical results of the auction itself and bidders’ bidding behaviour. This is because when a bidder knows in advance which specific bidders are likely competitors, this knowledge gives a company a head start when setting the bid price. However, despite these competitive implications, most previous studies have focused almost entirely on forecasting the number of bidders and only a few authors have dealt with the identity dimension qualitatively. Using a case study with immediate real-life applications, this paper develops a method for estimating every potential bidder’s probability of participating in a future auction as a function of the tender economic size removing the bias caused by the contract size opportunities distribution. This way, a bidder or auctioner will be able to estimate the likelihood of a specific group of key, previously identified bidders in a future tender.

On the probability of dizygotic twins being concordant for two alleles at multiple polymorphic loci

Accurate determination of same-sex twin zygosity is important for medical, scientific and personal reasons. Determination may be based upon questionnaire data, blood group, enzyme isoforms and fetal membrane examination, but assignment of zygosity must ultimately be confirmed by genotypic data. Here methods are reviewed for calculating average probabilities of correctly concluding a twin pair is monozygotic, given they share the same genotypes across all loci for commonly utilized multiplex short tandem repeat (STR) kits.

Round scallops and square meshes: a comparison of four codend types on the catch rates of target species and by-catch in the Queensland (Australia) saucer scallop (Amusium balloti) trawl fishery

Concern over the amount of by-catch from benthic trawl fisheries and research into the problem have increased in recent years. The present paper demonstrated that by-catch rates in the Queensland (Australia) saucer scallop (Amusium balloti) trawl fishery can be reduced by 77% (by weight) using nets fitted with a turtle excluder device (TED) and a square-mesh codend, compared with a standard diamond-mesh codend with no TED. This large reduction was achieved with no significant effect on the legal size scallop catch rate and 39% fewer undersize scallops were caught. In total, 382 taxa were recorded in the by-catch, which was dominated by sponges, portunid crabs, small demersal and benthic fish (e.g. leatherjackets, stingerfish, bearded ghouls, nemipterids, longspine emperors, lizard fish, triggerfish, flounders and rabbitfish), elasmobranchs (e.g. mainly rays) and invertebrates (e.g. sea stars, sea urchins, sea cucumbers and bivalve molluscs). Extremely high reductions in catch rate (i.e. ≥85%) were demonstrated for several by-catch species owing to the square-mesh codend. Square-mesh codends show potential as a means of greatly reducing by-catch and lowering the incidental capture and mortality of undersize scallops and Moreton Bay bugs (Thenus australiensis) in this fishery