6 resultados para Probability Of Target Attainment

em CaltechTHESIS


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Cells exhibit a diverse repertoire of dynamic behaviors. These dynamic functions are implemented by circuits of interacting biomolecules. Although these regulatory networks function deterministically by executing specific programs in response to extracellular signals, molecular interactions are inherently governed by stochastic fluctuations. This molecular noise can manifest as cell-to-cell phenotypic heterogeneity in a well-mixed environment. Single-cell variability may seem like a design flaw but the coexistence of diverse phenotypes in an isogenic population of cells can also serve a biological function by increasing the probability of survival of individual cells upon an abrupt change in environmental conditions. Decades of extensive molecular and biochemical characterization have revealed the connectivity and mechanisms that constitute regulatory networks. We are now confronted with the challenge of integrating this information to link the structure of these circuits to systems-level properties such as cellular decision making. To investigate cellular decision-making, we used the well studied galactose gene-regulatory network in \textit{Saccharomyces cerevisiae}. We analyzed the mechanism and dynamics of the coexistence of two stable on and off states for pathway activity. We demonstrate that this bimodality in the pathway activity originates from two positive feedback loops that trigger bistability in the network. By measuring the dynamics of single-cells in a mixed sugar environment, we observe that the bimodality in gene expression is a transient phenomenon. Our experiments indicate that early pathway activation in a cohort of cells prior to galactose metabolism can accelerate galactose consumption and provide a transient increase in growth rate. Together these results provide important insights into strategies implemented by cells that may have been evolutionary advantageous in competitive environments.

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Hypervelocity impact of meteoroids and orbital debris poses a serious and growing threat to spacecraft. To study hypervelocity impact phenomena, a comprehensive ensemble of real-time concurrently operated diagnostics has been developed and implemented in the Small Particle Hypervelocity Impact Range (SPHIR) facility. This suite of simultaneously operated instrumentation provides multiple complementary measurements that facilitate the characterization of many impact phenomena in a single experiment. The investigation of hypervelocity impact phenomena described in this work focuses on normal impacts of 1.8 mm nylon 6/6 cylinder projectiles and variable thickness aluminum targets. The SPHIR facility two-stage light-gas gun is capable of routinely launching 5.5 mg nylon impactors to speeds of 5 to 7 km/s. Refinement of legacy SPHIR operation procedures and the investigation of first-stage pressure have improved the velocity performance of the facility, resulting in an increase in average impact velocity of at least 0.57 km/s. Results for the perforation area indicate the considered range of target thicknesses represent multiple regimes describing the non-monotonic scaling of target perforation with decreasing target thickness. The laser side-lighting (LSL) system has been developed to provide ultra-high-speed shadowgraph images of the impact event. This novel optical technique is demonstrated to characterize the propagation velocity and two-dimensional optical density of impact-generated debris clouds. Additionally, a debris capture system is located behind the target during every experiment to provide complementary information regarding the trajectory distribution and penetration depth of individual debris particles. The utilization of a coherent, collimated illumination source in the LSL system facilitates the simultaneous measurement of impact phenomena with near-IR and UV-vis spectrograph systems. Comparison of LSL images to concurrent IR results indicates two distinctly different phenomena. A high-speed, pressure-dependent IR-emitting cloud is observed in experiments to expand at velocities much higher than the debris and ejecta phenomena observed using the LSL system. In double-plate target configurations, this phenomena is observed to interact with the rear-wall several micro-seconds before the subsequent arrival of the debris cloud. Additionally, dimensional analysis presented by Whitham for blast waves is shown to describe the pressure-dependent radial expansion of the observed IR-emitting phenomena. Although this work focuses on a single hypervelocity impact configuration, the diagnostic capabilities and techniques described can be used with a wide variety of impactors, materials, and geometries to investigate any number of engineering and scientific problems.

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This thesis examines collapse risk of tall steel braced frame buildings using rupture-to-rafters simulations due to suite of San Andreas earthquakes. Two key advancements in this work are the development of (i) a rational methodology for assigning scenario earthquake probabilities and (ii) an artificial correction-free approach to broadband ground motion simulation. The work can be divided into the following sections: earthquake source modeling, earthquake probability calculations, ground motion simulations, building response, and performance analysis.

As a first step the kinematic source inversions of past earthquakes in the magnitude range of 6-8 are used to simulate 60 scenario earthquakes on the San Andreas fault. For each scenario earthquake a 30-year occurrence probability is calculated and we present a rational method to redistribute the forecast earthquake probabilities from UCERF to the simulated scenario earthquake. We illustrate the inner workings of the method through an example involving earthquakes on the San Andreas fault in southern California.

Next, three-component broadband ground motion histories are computed at 636 sites in the greater Los Angeles metropolitan area by superposing short-period (0.2~s-2.0~s) empirical Green's function synthetics on top of long-period ($>$ 2.0~s) spectral element synthetics. We superimpose these seismograms on low-frequency seismograms, computed from kinematic source models using the spectral element method, to produce broadband seismograms.

Using the ground motions at 636 sites for the 60 scenario earthquakes, 3-D nonlinear analysis of several variants of an 18-story steel braced frame building, designed for three soil types using the 1994 and 1997 Uniform Building Code provisions and subjected to these ground motions, are conducted. Model performance is classified into one of five performance levels: Immediate Occupancy, Life Safety, Collapse Prevention, Red-Tagged, and Model Collapse. The results are combined with the 30-year probability of occurrence of the San Andreas scenario earthquakes using the PEER performance based earthquake engineering framework to determine the probability of exceedance of these limit states over the next 30 years.

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Morphogenesis is a phenomenon of intricate balance and dynamic interplay between processes occurring at a wide range of scales (spatial, temporal and energetic). During development, a variety of physical mechanisms are employed by tissues to simultaneously pattern, move, and differentiate based on information exchange between constituent cells, perhaps more than at any other time during an organism's life. To fully understand such events, a combined theoretical and experimental framework is required to assist in deciphering the correlations at both structural and functional levels at scales that include the intracellular and tissue levels as well as organs and organ systems. Microscopy, especially diffraction-limited light microscopy, has emerged as a central tool to capture the spatio-temporal context of life processes. Imaging has the unique advantage of watching biological events as they unfold over time at single-cell resolution in the intact animal. In this work I present a range of problems in morphogenesis, each unique in its requirements for novel quantitative imaging both in terms of the technique and analysis. Understanding the molecular basis for a developmental process involves investigating how genes and their products- mRNA and proteins-function in the context of a cell. Structural information holds the key to insights into mechanisms and imaging fixed specimens paves the first step towards deciphering gene function. The work presented in this thesis starts with the demonstration that the fluorescent signal from the challenging environment of whole-mount imaging, obtained by in situ hybridization chain reaction (HCR), scales linearly with the number of copies of target mRNA to provide quantitative sub-cellular mapping of mRNA expression within intact vertebrate embryos. The work then progresses to address aspects of imaging live embryonic development in a number of species. While processes such as avian cartilage growth require high spatial resolution and lower time resolution, dynamic events during zebrafish somitogenesis require higher time resolution to capture the protein localization as the somites mature. The requirements on imaging are even more stringent in case of the embryonic zebrafish heart that beats with a frequency of ~ 2-2.5 Hz, thereby requiring very fast imaging techniques based on two-photon light sheet microscope to capture its dynamics. In each of the hitherto-mentioned cases, ranging from the level of molecules to organs, an imaging framework is developed, both in terms of technique and analysis to allow quantitative assessment of the process in vivo. Overall the work presented in this thesis combines new quantitative tools with novel microscopy for the precise understanding of processes in embryonic development.

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There is a sparse number of credible source models available from large-magnitude past earthquakes. A stochastic source model generation algorithm thus becomes necessary for robust risk quantification using scenario earthquakes. We present an algorithm that combines the physics of fault ruptures as imaged in laboratory earthquakes with stress estimates on the fault constrained by field observations to generate stochastic source models for large-magnitude (Mw 6.0-8.0) strike-slip earthquakes. The algorithm is validated through a statistical comparison of synthetic ground motion histories from a stochastically generated source model for a magnitude 7.90 earthquake and a kinematic finite-source inversion of an equivalent magnitude past earthquake on a geometrically similar fault. The synthetic dataset comprises of three-component ground motion waveforms, computed at 636 sites in southern California, for ten hypothetical rupture scenarios (five hypocenters, each with two rupture directions) on the southern San Andreas fault. A similar validation exercise is conducted for a magnitude 6.0 earthquake, the lower magnitude limit for the algorithm. Additionally, ground motions from the Mw7.9 earthquake simulations are compared against predictions by the Campbell-Bozorgnia NGA relation as well as the ShakeOut scenario earthquake. The algorithm is then applied to generate fifty source models for a hypothetical magnitude 7.9 earthquake originating at Parkfield, with rupture propagating from north to south (towards Wrightwood), similar to the 1857 Fort Tejon earthquake. Using the spectral element method, three-component ground motion waveforms are computed in the Los Angeles basin for each scenario earthquake and the sensitivity of ground shaking intensity to seismic source parameters (such as the percentage of asperity area relative to the fault area, rupture speed, and risetime) is studied.

Under plausible San Andreas fault earthquakes in the next 30 years, modeled using the stochastic source algorithm, the performance of two 18-story steel moment frame buildings (UBC 1982 and 1997 designs) in southern California is quantified. The approach integrates rupture-to-rafters simulations into the PEER performance based earthquake engineering (PBEE) framework. Using stochastic sources and computational seismic wave propagation, three-component ground motion histories at 636 sites in southern California are generated for sixty scenario earthquakes on the San Andreas fault. The ruptures, with moment magnitudes in the range of 6.0-8.0, are assumed to occur at five locations on the southern section of the fault. Two unilateral rupture propagation directions are considered. The 30-year probabilities of all plausible ruptures in this magnitude range and in that section of the fault, as forecast by the United States Geological Survey, are distributed among these 60 earthquakes based on proximity and moment release. The response of the two 18-story buildings hypothetically located at each of the 636 sites under 3-component shaking from all 60 events is computed using 3-D nonlinear time-history analysis. Using these results, the probability of the structural response exceeding Immediate Occupancy (IO), Life-Safety (LS), and Collapse Prevention (CP) performance levels under San Andreas fault earthquakes over the next thirty years is evaluated.

Furthermore, the conditional and marginal probability distributions of peak ground velocity (PGV) and displacement (PGD) in Los Angeles and surrounding basins due to earthquakes occurring primarily on the mid-section of southern San Andreas fault are determined using Bayesian model class identification. Simulated ground motions at sites within 55-75km from the source from a suite of 60 earthquakes (Mw 6.0 − 8.0) primarily rupturing mid-section of San Andreas fault are considered for PGV and PGD data.

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The problem of global optimization of M phase-incoherent signals in N complex dimensions is formulated. Then, by using the geometric approach of Landau and Slepian, conditions for optimality are established for N = 2 and the optimal signal sets are determined for M = 2, 3, 4, 6, and 12.

The method is the following: The signals are assumed to be equally probable and to have equal energy, and thus are represented by points ṡi, i = 1, 2, …, M, on the unit sphere S1 in CN. If Wik is the halfspace determined by ṡi and ṡk and containing ṡi, i.e. Wik = {ṙϵCN:| ≥ | ˂ṙ, ṡk˃|}, then the Ʀi = ∩/k≠i Wik, i = 1, 2, …, M, the maximum likelihood decision regions, partition S1. For additive complex Gaussian noise ṅ and a received signal ṙ = ṡie + ṅ, where ϴ is uniformly distributed over [0, 2π], the probability of correct decoding is PC = 1/πN ∞/ʃ/0 r2N-1e-(r2+1)U(r)dr, where U(r) = 1/M M/Ʃ/i=1 Ʀi ʃ/∩ S1 I0(2r | ˂ṡ, ṡi˃|)dσ(ṡ), and r = ǁṙǁ.

For N = 2, it is proved that U(r) ≤ ʃ/Cα I0(2r|˂ṡ, ṡi˃|)dσ(ṡ) – 2K/M. h(1/2K [Mσ(Cα)-σ(S1)]), where Cα = {ṡϵS1:|˂ṡ, ṡi˃| ≥ α}, K is the total number of boundaries of the net on S1 determined by the decision regions, and h is the strictly increasing strictly convex function of σ(Cα∩W), (where W is a halfspace not containing ṡi), given by h = ʃ/Cα∩W I0 (2r|˂ṡ, ṡi˃|)dσ(ṡ). Conditions for equality are established and these give rise to the globally optimal signal sets for M = 2, 3, 4, 6, and 12.