Behaviours, Processes and Probabilistic Environmental Functions in H-Open Systems

The Patten’s Theory of the Environment, supposes an impotent contribution to the Theoretical Ecology. The hypothesis of the duality of environments, the creaon and genon functions and the three developed propositions are so much of great importance in the field of the Applied Mathematical as Ecology. The authors have undertaken an amplification and revision of this theory, developing the following steps: 1) A theory of processes. 2) A definition of structural and behavioural functions. 3) A probabilistic definition of the environmental functions. In this paper the authors develop the theory of behavioural functions, begin the theory of environmental functions and give a complementary focus to the theory of processes that has been developed in precedent papers.

Probabilistic Recursion Theory and Implicit Computational Complexity

In this thesis we provide a characterization of probabilistic computation in itself, from a recursion-theoretical perspective, without reducing it to deterministic computation. More specifically, we show that probabilistic computable functions, i.e., those functions which are computed by Probabilistic Turing Machines (PTM), can be characterized by a natural generalization of Kleene's partial recursive functions which includes, among initial functions, one that returns identity or successor with probability 1/2. We then prove the equi-expressivity of the obtained algebra and the class of functions computed by PTMs. In the the second part of the thesis we investigate the relations existing between our recursion-theoretical framework and sub-recursive classes, in the spirit of Implicit Computational Complexity. More precisely, endowing predicative recurrence with a random base function is proved to lead to a characterization of polynomial-time computable probabilistic functions.

Hidden Markov models for cancer classification using gene expression profiles

This paper introduces an approach to cancer classification through gene expression profiles by designing supervised learning hidden Markov models (HMMs). Gene expression of each tumor type is modelled by an HMM, which maximizes the likelihood of the data. Prominent discriminant genes are selected by a novel method based on a modification of the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). Unlike conventional AHP, the modified AHP allows to process quantitative factors that are ranking outcomes of individual gene selection methods including t-test, entropy, receiver operating characteristic curve, Wilcoxon test and signal to noise ratio. The modified AHP aggregates ranking results of individual gene selection methods to form stable and robust gene subsets. Experimental results demonstrate the performance dominance of the HMM approach against six comparable classifiers. Results also show that gene subsets generated by modified AHP lead to greater accuracy and stability compared to competing gene selection methods, i.e. information gain, symmetrical uncertainty, Bhattacharyya distance, and ReliefF. The modified AHP improves the classification performance not only of the HMM but also of all other classifiers. Accordingly, the proposed combination between the modified AHP and HMM is a powerful tool for cancer classification and useful as a real clinical decision support system for medical practitioners.

Grid-based histogram arithmetic for the probabilistic analysis of functions

The selection of predefined analytic grids (partitions of the numeric ranges) to represent input and output functions as histograms has been proposed as a mechanism of approximation in order to control the tradeoff between accuracy and computation times in several áreas ranging from simulation to constraint solving. In particular, the application of interval methods for probabilistic function characterization has been shown to have advantages over other methods based on the simulation of random samples. However, standard interval arithmetic has always been used for the computation steps. In this paper, we introduce an alternative approximate arithmetic aimed at controlling the cost of the interval operations. Its distinctive feature is that grids are taken into account by the operators. We apply the technique in the context of probability density functions in order to improve the accuracy of the probability estimates. Results show that this approach has advantages over existing approaches in some particular situations, although computation times tend to increase significantly when analyzing large functions.

A probabilistic constrained nonlinear optimization framework to optimize RED parameters

The random early detection (RED) technique has seen a lot of research over the years. However, the functional relationship between RED performance and its parameters viz,, queue weight (omega(q)), marking probability (max(p)), minimum threshold (min(th)) and maximum threshold (max(th)) is not analytically availa ble. In this paper, we formulate a probabilistic constrained optimization problem by assuming a nonlinear relationship between the RED average queue length and its parameters. This problem involves all the RED parameters as the variables of the optimization problem. We use the barrier and the penalty function approaches for its Solution. However (as above), the exact functional relationship between the barrier and penalty objective functions and the optimization variable is not known, but noisy samples of these are available for different parameter values. Thus, for obtaining the gradient and Hessian of the objective, we use certain recently developed simultaneous perturbation stochastic approximation (SPSA) based estimates of these. We propose two four-timescale stochastic approximation algorithms based oil certain modified second-order SPSA updates for finding the optimum RED parameters. We present the results of detailed simulation experiments conducted over different network topologies and network/traffic conditions/settings, comparing the performance of Our algorithms with variants of RED and a few other well known adaptive queue management (AQM) techniques discussed in the literature.

Learning Optimal Discriminant Functions through a Cooperative Game of Automata

The problem of learning correct decision rules to minimize the probability of misclassification is a long-standing problem of supervised learning in pattern recognition. The problem of learning such optimal discriminant functions is considered for the class of problems where the statistical properties of the pattern classes are completely unknown. The problem is posed as a game with common payoff played by a team of mutually cooperating learning automata. This essentially results in a probabilistic search through the space of classifiers. The approach is inherently capable of learning discriminant functions that are nonlinear in their parameters also. A learning algorithm is presented for the team and convergence is established. It is proved that the team can obtain the optimal classifier to an arbitrary approximation. Simulation results with a few examples are presented where the team learns the optimal classifier.

Probabilistic fault identification using vibration data and neural networks

Bayesian formulated neural networks are implemented using hybrid Monte Carlo method for probabilistic fault identification in cylindrical shells. Each of the 20 nominally identical cylindrical shells is divided into three substructures. Holes of (12±2) mm in diameter are introduced in each of the substructures and vibration data are measured. Modal properties and the Coordinate Modal Assurance Criterion (COMAC) are utilized to train the two modal-property-neural-networks. These COMAC are calculated by taking the natural-frequency-vector to be an additional mode. Modal energies are calculated by determining the integrals of the real and imaginary components of the frequency response functions over bandwidths of 12% of the natural frequencies. The modal energies and the Coordinate Modal Energy Assurance Criterion (COMEAC) are used to train the two frequency-response-function-neural-networks. The averages of the two sets of trained-networks (COMAC and COMEAC as well as modal properties and modal energies) form two committees of networks. The COMEAC and the COMAC are found to be better identification data than using modal properties and modal energies directly. The committee approach is observed to give lower standard deviations than the individual methods. The main advantage of the Bayesian formulation is that it gives identities of damage and their respective confidence intervals.

Bayesian non-parametrics and the probabilistic approach to modelling.

Modelling is fundamental to many fields of science and engineering. A model can be thought of as a representation of possible data one could predict from a system. The probabilistic approach to modelling uses probability theory to express all aspects of uncertainty in the model. The probabilistic approach is synonymous with Bayesian modelling, which simply uses the rules of probability theory in order to make predictions, compare alternative models, and learn model parameters and structure from data. This simple and elegant framework is most powerful when coupled with flexible probabilistic models. Flexibility is achieved through the use of Bayesian non-parametrics. This article provides an overview of probabilistic modelling and an accessible survey of some of the main tools in Bayesian non-parametrics. The survey covers the use of Bayesian non-parametrics for modelling unknown functions, density estimation, clustering, time-series modelling, and representing sparsity, hierarchies, and covariance structure. More specifically, it gives brief non-technical overviews of Gaussian processes, Dirichlet processes, infinite hidden Markov models, Indian buffet processes, Kingman's coalescent, Dirichlet diffusion trees and Wishart processes.

Probabilistic Analysis of Multistage Interconnection Network Performance

We present methods of calculating the value of two performance parameters for multipath, multistage interconnection networks: the normalized throughput and the probability of successful message transmission. We develop a set of exact equations for the loading probability mass functions of network channels and a program for solving them exactly. We also develop a Monte Carlo method for approxmiate solution of the equations, and show that the resulting approximation method will always calculate the values of the performance parameters more quickly than direct simulation.

Probabilistic Solution of Inverse Problems

In this thesis we study the general problem of reconstructing a function, defined on a finite lattice from a set of incomplete, noisy and/or ambiguous observations. The goal of this work is to demonstrate the generality and practical value of a probabilistic (in particular, Bayesian) approach to this problem, particularly in the context of Computer Vision. In this approach, the prior knowledge about the solution is expressed in the form of a Gibbsian probability distribution on the space of all possible functions, so that the reconstruction task is formulated as an estimation problem. Our main contributions are the following: (1) We introduce the use of specific error criteria for the design of the optimal Bayesian estimators for several classes of problems, and propose a general (Monte Carlo) procedure for approximating them. This new approach leads to a substantial improvement over the existing schemes, both regarding the quality of the results (particularly for low signal to noise ratios) and the computational efficiency. (2) We apply the Bayesian appraoch to the solution of several problems, some of which are formulated and solved in these terms for the first time. Specifically, these applications are: teh reconstruction of piecewise constant surfaces from sparse and noisy observationsl; the reconstruction of depth from stereoscopic pairs of images and the formation of perceptual clusters. (3) For each one of these applications, we develop fast, deterministic algorithms that approximate the optimal estimators, and illustrate their performance on both synthetic and real data. (4) We propose a new method, based on the analysis of the residual process, for estimating the parameters of the probabilistic models directly from the noisy observations. This scheme leads to an algorithm, which has no free parameters, for the restoration of piecewise uniform images. (5) We analyze the implementation of the algorithms that we develop in non-conventional hardware, such as massively parallel digital machines, and analog and hybrid networks.

Nearest-neighbor Queries in Probabilistic Graphs

Large probabilistic graphs arise in various domains spanning from social networks to biological and communication networks. An important query in these graphs is the k nearest-neighbor query, which involves finding and reporting the k closest nodes to a specific node. This query assumes the existence of a measure of the "proximity" or the "distance" between any two nodes in the graph. To that end, we propose various novel distance functions that extend well known notions of classical graph theory, such as shortest paths and random walks. We argue that many meaningful distance functions are computationally intractable to compute exactly. Thus, in order to process nearest-neighbor queries, we resort to Monte Carlo sampling and exploit novel graph-transformation ideas and pruning opportunities. In our extensive experimental analysis, we explore the trade-offs of our approximation algorithms and demonstrate that they scale well on real-world probabilistic graphs with tens of millions of edges.

A Local Circuit Model of Learned Straitial and Dopamine Cell Responses under Probabilistic Schedules of Reward

Before choosing, it helps to know both the expected value signaled by a predictive cue and the associated uncertainty that the reward will be forthcoming. Recently, Fiorillo et al. (2003) found the dopamine (DA) neurons of the SNc exhibit sustained responses related to the uncertainty that a cure will be followed by reward, in addition to phasic responses related to reward prediction errors (RPEs). This suggests that cue-dependent anticipations of the timing, magnitude, and uncertainty of rewards are learned and reflected in components of the DA signals broadcast by SNc neurons. What is the minimal local circuit model that can explain such multifaceted reward-related learning? A new computational model shows how learned uncertainty responses emerge robustly on single trial along with phasic RPE responses, such that both types of DA responses exhibit the empirically observed dependence on conditional probability, expected value of reward, and time since onset of the reward-predicting cue. The model includes three major pathways for computing: immediate expected values of cures, timed predictions of reward magnitudes (and RPEs), and the uncertainty associated with these predictions. The first two model pathways refine those previously modeled by Brown et al. (1999). A third, newly modeled, pathway is formed by medium spiny projection neurons (MSPNs) of the matrix compartment of the striatum, whose axons co-release GABA and a neuropeptide, substance P, both at synapses with GABAergic neurons in the SNr and with the dendrites (in SNr) of DA neurons whose somas are in ventral SNc. Co-release enables efficient computation of sustained DA uncertainty responses that are a non-monotonic function of the conditonal probability that a reward will follow the cue. The new model's incorporation of a striatal microcircuit allowed it to reveals that variability in striatal cholinergic transmission can explain observed difference, between monkeys, in the amplitutude of the non-monotonic uncertainty function. Involvement of matriceal MSPNs and striatal cholinergic transmission implpies a relation between uncertainty in the cue-reward contigency and action-selection functions of the basal ganglia. The model synthesizes anatomical, electrophysiological and behavioral data regarding the midbrain DA system in a novel way, by relating the ability to compute uncertainty, in parallel with other aspects of reward contingencies, to the unique distribution of SP inputs in ventral SN.

Scale-wise evolution of rainfall probability density functions fingerprints the rainfall generation mechanism

© 2010 by the American Geophysical Union.The cross-scale probabilistic structure of rainfall intensity records collected over time scales ranging from hours to decades at sites dominated by both convective and frontal systems is investigated. Across these sites, intermittency build-up from slow to fast time-scales is analyzed in terms of heavy tailed and asymmetric signatures in the scale-wise evolution of rainfall probability density functions (pdfs). The analysis demonstrates that rainfall records dominated by convective storms develop heavier-Tailed power law pdfs toward finer scales when compared with their frontal systems counterpart. Also, a concomitant marked asymmetry build-up emerges at such finer time scales. A scale-dependent probabilistic description of such fat tails and asymmetry appearance is proposed based on a modified q-Gaussian model, able to describe the cross-scale rainfall pdfs in terms of the nonextensivity parameter q, a lacunarity (intermittency) correction and a tail asymmetry coefficient, linked to the rainfall generation mechanism.

Applications of Feller-Reuter-Riley transition functions

A Feller–Reuter–Riley function is a Markov transition function whose corresponding semigroup maps the set of the real-valued continuous functions vanishing at infinity into itself. The aim of this paper is to investigate applications of such functions in the dual problem, Markov branching processes, and the Williams-matrix. The remarkable property of a Feller–Reuter–Riley function is that it is a Feller minimal transition function with a stable q-matrix. By using this property we are able to prove that, in the theory of branching processes, the branching property is equivalent to the requirement that the corresponding transition function satisfies the Kolmogorov forward equations associated with a stable q-matrix. It follows that the probabilistic definition and the analytic definition for Markov branching processes are actually equivalent. Also, by using this property, together with the Resolvent Decomposition Theorem, a simple analytical proof of the Williams' existence theorem with respect to the Williams-matrix is obtained. The close link between the dual problem and the Feller–Reuter–Riley transition functions is revealed. It enables us to prove that a dual transition function must satisfy the Kolmogorov forward equations. A necessary and sufficient condition for a dual transition function satisfying the Kolmogorov backward equations is also provided.