Prior and posterior linear pooling for combining expert opinions: Uses and impact on Bayesian Networks

The use of expert knowledge to quantify a Bayesian Network (BN) is necessary when data is not available. This however raises questions regarding how opinions from multiple experts can be used in a BN. Linear pooling is a popular method for combining probability assessments from multiple experts. In particular, Prior Linear Pooling (PrLP), which pools opinions then places them into the BN is a common method. This paper firstly proposes an alternative pooling method, Posterior Linear Pooling (PoLP). This method constructs a BN for each expert, then pools the resulting probabilities at the nodes of interest. Secondly, it investigates the advantages and disadvantages of using these pooling methods to combine the opinions of multiple experts. Finally, the methods are applied to an existing BN, the Wayfinding Bayesian Network Model, to investigate the behaviour of different groups of people and how these different methods may be able to capture such differences. The paper focusses on 6 nodes Human Factors, Environmental Factors, Wayfinding, Communication, Visual Elements of Communication and Navigation Pathway, and three subgroups Gender (female, male),Travel Experience (experienced, inexperienced), and Travel Purpose (business, personal) and finds that different behaviors can indeed be captured by the different methods.

Driving and licensing experiences of learner drivers in two Australian states prior to major changes in the licensing laws

The learner licence is an important component of the graduated driver licensing system. This research describes the driving and licensing experiences of learner drivers in Queensland and New South Wales licensed prior to the changes made to the system in mid-2007. The sample consisted of 392 participants who completed a telephone interview just after they obtained their provisional licence. The results suggest that learner drivers in the two states had many similar experiences when they were obtaining a learner licence. However, once a learner licence was obtained, there were differences in the amount of practice, the supervisor learners practised with, the type of vehicle they used and the amount of unlicensed driving. This paper provides important baseline descriptive data that can be used to measure the impact of the changes that were introduced to the learner licence phase in mid-2007 in both of these states.

Intuitive interaction, prior experience and aging : an empirical study

This paper describes an experiment undertaken to investigate intuitive interaction, particularly in older adults. Previous work has shown that intuitive interaction relies on past experience, and has also suggested that older people demonstrate less intuitive uses and slower times when completing set tasks with various devices. Similarly, this experiment showed that past experience with relevant products allowed people to use the interfaces of two different microwaves more quickly, although there were no significant differences between the different microwaves. It also revealed that certain aspects of cognitive decline related to aging, such as central executive function, have more impact on time, correct uses and intuitive uses than chronological age. Implications of these results and further work in this area are discussed.

Good results for early treatment of clinically isolated syndrome prior to multiple sclerosis with interferon beta-1b and glatiramer

Background: The first sign of developing multiple sclerosis is a clinically isolated syndrome that resembles a multiple sclerosis relapse. Objective/methods: The objective was to review the clinical trials of two medicines in clinically isolated syndromes (interferon β and glatiramer acetate) to determine whether they prevent progression to definite multiple sclerosis. Results: In the BENEFIT trial, after 2 years, 45% of subjects in the placebo group developed clinically definite multiple sclerosis, and the rate was lower in the interferon β-1b group. Then all subjects were offered interferon β-1b, and the original interferon β-1b group became the early treatment group, and the placebo group became the delayed treatment group. After 5 years, the number of subjects with clinical definite multiple sclerosis remained lower in the early treatment than late treatment group. In the PreCISe trial, after 2 years, the time for 25% of the subjects to convert to definite multiple sclerosis was prolonged in the glatiramer group. Conclusions: Interferon β-1b and glatiramer acetate slow the progression of clinically isolated syndromes to definite multiple sclerosis. However, it is not known whether this early treatment slows the progression to the physical disabilities experienced in multiple sclerosis.

Factors influencing quality of life in patients with benign primary brain tumors : prior to and following surgery

Goals: Few studies have repeatedly evaluated quality of life and potentially relevant factors in patients with benign primary brain tumor. The purpose of this study was to explore the relationship between the experience of the symptom distress, functional status, depression, and quality of life prior to surgery (T1) and 1 month post-discharge (T2). ---------- Patients and methods: This was a prospective cohort study including 58 patients with benign primary brain tumor in one teaching hospital in the Taipei area of Taiwan. The research instruments included the M.D. Anderson Symptom Inventory, the Functional Independence Measure scale, the Hospital Depression Scale, and the Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapy-Brain.---------- Results: Symptom distress (T1: r=−0.90, p<0.01; T2: r=−0.52, p<0.01), functional status (T1: r=0.56, p<0.01), and depression (T1: r=−0.71, p<0.01) demonstrated a significant relationship with patients' quality of life. Multivariate analysis identified symptom distress (explained 80.2%, Rinc 2=0.802, p=0.001) and depression (explained 5.2%, Rinc 2=0.052, p<0.001) continued to have a significant independent influence on quality of life prior to surgery (T1) after controlling for key demographic and medical variables. Furthermore, only symptom distress (explained 27.1%, Rinc 2=0.271, p=0.001) continued to have a significant independent influence on quality of life at 1 month after discharge (T2).---------- Conclusions: The study highlights the potential importance of a patient's symptom distress on quality of life prior to and following surgery. Health professionals should inquire about symptom distress over time. Specific interventions for symptoms may improve the symptom impact on quality of life. Additional studies should evaluate symptom distress on longer-term quality of life of patients with benign brain tumor.

Reference bias : presentation of extreme health states prior to EQ-VAS improves health-related quality of life scores. A randomised crossover trial.

Background: Clinical practice and clinical research has made a concerted effort to move beyond the use of clinical indicators alone and embrace patient focused care through the use of patient reported outcomes such as healthrelated quality of life. However, unless patients give consistent consideration to the health states that give meaning to measurement scales used to evaluate these constructs, longitudinal comparison of these measures may be invalid. This study aimed to investigate whether patients give consideration to a standard health state rating scale (EQ-VAS) and whether consideration of good and poor health state descriptors immediately changes their selfreport. Methods: A randomised crossover trial was implemented amongst hospitalised older adults (n = 151). Patients were asked to consider descriptions of extremely good (Description-A) and poor (Description-B) health states. The EQ-VAS was administered as a self-report at baseline, after the first descriptors (A or B), then again after the remaining descriptors (B or A respectively). At baseline patients were also asked if they had considered either EQVAS anchors. Results: Overall 106/151 (70%) participants changed their self-evaluation by ≥5 points on the 100 point VAS, with a mean (SD) change of +4.5 (12) points (p < 0.001). A total of 74/151 (49%) participants did not consider the best health VAS anchor, of the 77 who did 59 (77%) thought the good health descriptors were more extreme (better) then they had previously considered. Similarly 85/151 (66%) participants did not consider the worst health anchor of the 66 who did 63 (95%) thought the poor health descriptors were more extreme (worse) then they had previously considered. Conclusions: Health state self-reports may not be well considered. An immediate significant shift in response can be elicited by exposure to a mere description of an extreme health state despite no actual change in underlying health state occurring. Caution should be exercised in research and clinical settings when interpreting subjective patient reported outcomes that are dependent on brief anchors for meaning. Trial Registration: Australian and New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (#ACTRN12607000606482) http://www.anzctr. org.au

Combining expert opinions in prior elicitation

A method of eliciting prior distributions for Bayesian models using expert knowledge is proposed. Elicitation is a widely studied problem, from a psychological perspective as well as from a statistical perspective. Here, we are interested in combining opinions from more than one expert using an explicitly model-based approach so that we may account for various sources of variation affecting elicited expert opinions. We use a hierarchical model to achieve this. We apply this approach to two problems. The first problem involves a food risk assessment problem involving modelling dose-response for Listeria monocytogenes contamination of mice. The second concerns the time taken by PhD students to submit their thesis in a particular school.

Ureaplasma parvum and ureaplasma urealyticum detected in semen after washing prior to assisted reproductive technology procedures

Objective: This study investigated: (i) the prevalence of ureaplasmas in semen and washed semen and (ii) the effect of ureaplasmas on semen andrology parameters. Design: Prospective study. Setting: IVF unit -private hospital, Brisbane, Australia. Patient(s): Three hundred and forty three men participating in an assisted reproductive technology (ART) treatment cycle. Intervention(s): Semen and washed semen tested by culture, PCR assays and indirect immunofluorescent antibody assays. Statistical differences were determined by a t-test, Wilcoxon or Pearson’s Chi- square test where appropriate. Main Outcome Measure(s): The prevalence of ureaplasmas in semen and washed semen and the effect of these microorganisms on semen andrology parameters. Result(s): Ureaplasmas were detected in 73/343 (22%) semen samples and 29/343 (8.5%) washed semen samples. Ureaplasmas adherent to the surface of spermatozoa were demonstrated by indirect immunofluorescent antibody testing. U. parvum serovar 6 (36.6%) and U. urealyticum (30%) were the most prevalent isolates in washed semen. A comparison of the semen andrology parameters of washed semen ureaplasma positive and negative groups demonstrated a lower proportion of non-motile sperm in the washed semen ureaplasma positive group. Conclusion(s): Ureaplasmas are not always removed from semen by a standard ART washing procedure and can remain adherent to the surface of spermatozoa.