Incidence, severity and correlates of bicycling injuries in a sample of cyclists in Queensland, Australia

Bicycle injuries, particularly those resulting from single bicycle crashes, are underreported in both police and hospital records. Data on cyclist characteristics and crash circumstances are also often lacking. As a result, the ability to develop comprehensive injury prevention policies is hampered. The aim of this study was to examine the incidence, severity, cyclist characteristics, and crash circumstances associated with cycling injuries in a sample of cyclists in Queensland, Australia. A cross-sectional study of Queensland cyclists was conducted in 2009. Respondents (n=2056) completed an online survey about their cycling experiences, including cycling injuries. Logistic regression modelling was used to examine the associations between demographic and cycling behaviour variables with experiencing cycling injuries in the past year, and, separately, with serious cycling injuries requiring a trip to a hospital. Twenty-seven percent of respondents (n=545) reported injuries, and 6% (n=114) reported serious injuries. In multivariable modelling, reporting an injury was more likely for respondents who had cycled <5 years, compared to ≥10 years (p<0.005); cycled for competition (p=0.01); or experienced harassment from motor vehicle occupants (p<0.001). There were no gender differences in injury incidence, and respondents who cycled for transport did not have an increased risk of injury. Reporting a serious injury was more likely for those whose injury involved other road users (p<0.03). Along with environmental and behavioural approaches for reducing collisions and near-collisions with motor vehicles, interventions that improve the design and maintenance of cycling infrastructure, increase cyclists’ skills, and encourage safe cycling behaviours and bicycle maintenance will also be important for reducing the overall incidence of cycling injuries.

O segundo tempo do regime internacional dos investimentos: a nova geração de tratados e a prevenção de controvérsias investidor-Estado

No contexto de avanço da globalização, o Investimento Estrangeiro Direto (IED) mostra-se como um dos principais veículos para a inserção internacional dos países. Como os objetivos das empresas transnacionais e dos Estados hospedeiros não são os mesmos, há a necessidade de adoção de políticas que levem à convergência. No plano legal, observou-se nas últimas décadas a consolidação do regime internacional dos investimentos, com o crescimento exponencial do número de tratados de investimento e de arbitragens investidor-Estado fundadas nos mesmos. Mas há insatisfações de parte a parte com o sistema. Por um lado, os países tentam limitar o ativismo dos árbitros mediante a revisão de seus tratados. Por outro, tanto os investidores como os Estados começam a perceber que não há vencedores reais na arbitragem, dadas as suas diversas deficiências. Nomeadamente: custos elevados, longa duração, incoerência nas decisões e desgaste para as relações investidor-Estado no longo prazo. Nesse diapasão, surgem propostas de alternativas. Pensadores do sistema, valendo-se do Planejamento de Sistemas de Disputas, têm desenvolvido Políticas de Prevenção de Controvérsias. Tais políticas fundamentam-se nas dinâmicas de busca de soluções baseadas em interesses contrapostas às baseadas na força e nos direitos seguindo processos de administração precoce de conflitos. Diversos países, em diferentes níveis de desenvolvimento, têm tido êxito na implementação dessas políticas. A difusão das melhores práticas, movimento apoiado por organizações internacionais, oferece oportunidades para a melhora da governança, através da promoção de maior coerência e coordenação nas ações do Estado, da transparência e do império da lei. O tema é de interesse para o Brasil, país que, diferentemente dos demais, nunca ratificou um único tratado de investimento. Isso porque já surgem vozes na indústria clamando por uma mudança de posição, diante da emergência do país também como um exportador de capital. Caso tal inflexão se confirme, o Brasil tem a oportunidade de tomar partido das melhores experiências internacionais, usando tais tratados como instrumentos na sua estratégia de desenvolvimento.

Estimation of contribution of changes in classic risk factors to trends in coronary-event rates across the WHO MONICA Project populations

Background. From the mid-1980s to mid-1990s, the WHO MONICA Project monitored coronary events and classic risk factors for coronary heart disease (CHD) in 38 populations from 21 countries. We assessed the extent to which changes in these risk factors explain the variation in the trends in coronary-event rates, across the populations. Methods. In men and women aged 35-64 years, non-fatal myocardial infarction and coronary deaths were registered continuously to assess trends in rates of coronary events. We carried out population surveys to estimate trends in risk factors. Trends in event rates were regressed on trends in risk score and in individual risk factors. Findings. Smoking rates decreased in most male populations but trends were mixed in women; mean blood pressures and cholesterol concentrations decreased, body-mass index increased, and overall risk scores and coronary-event rates decreased. The model of trends in 10-year coronary-event rates against risk scores and single risk factors showed a poor fit, but this was improved with a 4-year time lag for coronary events. The explanatory power of the analyses was limited by imprecision of the estimates and homogeneity of trends in the study populations. Interpretation. Changes in the classic risk factors seem to partly explain the variation in population trends in CHD. Residual variance is attributable to difficulties in measurement and analysis, including time lag, and to factors that were not included, such as medical interventions. The results support prevention policies based on the classic risk factors but suggest potential for prevention beyond these.

Three essays in risky behaviors

A PhD Dissertation, presented as part of the requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy from the NOVA - School of Business and Economics

Lutte aux botnets : les politiques de prévention s'avèrent-elles efficaces?

Les alertes que nos logiciels antivirus nous envoient ou encore les différents reportages diffusés dans les médias nous font prendre conscience de l'existence des menaces dans le cyberespace. Que ce soit les pourriels, les attaques par déni de service ou les virus, le cyberespace regorge de menaces qui persistent malgré les efforts qui sont déployés dans leur lutte. Est-ce que cela a à voir avec l'efficacité des politiques en place actuellement pour lutter contre ce phénomène? Pour y répondre, l'objectif général du présent mémoire est de vérifier quelles sont les politiques de prévention (lois anti-pourriel, partenariats publics-privés et démantèlements de botnets) qui influencent le plus fortement le taux de menaces informatiques détectées, tout en s'attardant également à l'effet de différents facteurs socio-économiques sur cette variable. Les données collectées par le logiciel antivirus de la compagnie ESET ont été utilisées. Les résultats suggèrent que les partenariats publics-privés offrant une assistance personnalisée aux internautes s'avèrent être la politique de prévention la plus efficace. Les démantèlements de botnets peuvent également s'avérer efficaces, mais seulement lorsque plusieurs acteurs/serveurs importants du réseau sont mis hors d'état de nuire. Le démantèlement du botnet Mariposa en est un bon exemple. Les résultats de ce mémoire suggèrent que la formule partenariats-démantèlements serait le choix le plus judicieux pour lutter contre les cybermenaces. Ces politiques de prévention possèdent toutes deux des méthodes efficaces pour lutter contre les menaces informatiques et c'est pourquoi elles devraient être mises en commun pour assurer une meilleure défense contre ce phénomène.

Effects of beverage alcohol taxes and prices on drinking: a meta-analysis of 1003 estimates from 112 studies

Aims: We conducted a systematic review of studies examining relationships between measures of beverage alcohol tax or price levels and alcohol sales or self-reported drinking. A total of 112 studies of alcohol tax or price effects were found, containing 1003 estimates of the tax/price–consumption relationship. Design: Studies included analyses of alternative outcome measures, varying subgroups of the population, several statistical models, and using different units of analysis. Multiple estimates were coded from each study, along with numerous study characteristics. Using reported estimates, standard errors, t-ratios, sample sizes and other statistics, we calculated the partial correlation for the relationship between alcohol price or tax and sales or drinking measures for each major model or subgroup reported within each study. Random-effects models were used to combine studies for inverse variance weighted overall estimates of the magnitude and significance of the relationship between alcohol tax/price and drinking. Findings: Simple means of reported elasticities are -0.46 for beer, -0.69 for wine and -0.80 for spirits. Meta-analytical results document the highly significant relationships (P < 0.001) between alcohol tax or price measures and indices of sales or consumption of alcohol (aggregate-level r = -0.17 for beer, -0.30 for wine, -0.29 for spirits and -0.44 for total alcohol). Price/tax also affects heavy drinking significantly (mean reported elasticity = -0.28, individual-level r = -0.01, P < 0.01), but the magnitude of effect is smaller than effects on overall drinking. Conclusions: A large literature establishes that beverage alcohol prices and taxes are related inversely to drinking. Effects are large compared to other prevention policies and programs. Public policies that raise prices of alcohol are an effective means to reduce drinking.

Semiparametric modeling of the spatial distribution of occupational accident risk in the casual labor market, Piracicaba, southeast Brazil

The objective of this study was to estimate the spatial distribution of work accident risk in the informal work market in the urban zone of an industrialized city in southeast Brazil and to examine concomitant effects of age, gender, and type of occupation after controlling for spatial risk variation. The basic methodology adopted was that of a population-based case-control study with particular interest focused on the spatial location of work. Cases were all casual workers in the city suffering work accidents during a one-year period; controls were selected from the source population of casual laborers by systematic random sampling of urban homes. The spatial distribution of work accidents was estimated via a semiparametric generalized additive model with a nonparametric bidimensional spline of the geographical coordinates of cases and controls as the nonlinear spatial component, and including age, gender, and occupation as linear predictive variables in the parametric component. We analyzed 1,918 cases and 2,245 controls between 1/11/2003 and 31/10/2004 in Piracicaba, Brazil. Areas of significantly high and low accident risk were identified in relation to mean risk in the study region (p < 0.01). Work accident risk for informal workers varied significantly in the study area. Significant age, gender, and occupational group effects on accident risk were identified after correcting for this spatial variation. A good understanding of high-risk groups and high-risk regions underpins the formulation of hypotheses concerning accident causality and the development of effective public accident prevention policies.

Subnotificação de acidentes do trabalho não fatais em Botucatu, SP, 2002

Objective: The implementation of work-related injury prevention policies has been hindered by underreporting of incidents among formal workers, and substantial underreporting among informal workforce. This study aimed at estimating the underreporting of work-related injury in a median-sized city. Methods: A random survey was carried out among residences in the urban area of Brazil. Residents were interviewed about the occurrence of work-related injury to people aged more than nine years in the last 90 days. All incidents reported were double checked in the National Social Security Institute (INSS) records. Results: There were 9,626 residences visited. It was estimated 79.5% (CI 95%: 78.8%-80.3%) of underreporting of work-related injury. Conclusions: Work-related injury reporting is poor in the study location and this may be occurring in other cities. Data suggest the need to build up information systems on Brazilian workers' health. It should incorporate methods, materials and human recourses necessary to recognize, store, analyze, and spread information support injury prevention policies and promote workers' health programs.

Drogas, violência e políticas sociais: estudo de uma comunidade terapêutica

Pós-graduação em Ciências Sociais - FFC

A violência dos grupos skinheads e a questão da segurança pública: a instituição policial e o combate aos crimes de intolerância 2001-2011

Pós-graduação em Ciências Sociais - FFC

Perinatal and early adulthood factors associated with adiposity

We used body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC) as fat indicators to assess whether perinatal and early adulthood factors are associated with adiposity in early adulthood. We hypothesized that risk factors differ between men and women and are also different when WC is used for measuring adiposity as opposed to BMI. We conducted a longitudinal study based on a sample of 2,063 adults from the 1978/1979 Ribeirao Preto birth cohort. Adjustment was performed using four sequential multiple linear regression models stratified by sex. Both perinatal and early adulthood variables influenced adulthood BMI and WC. The associations differed between men and women and depending on the measure of abdominal adiposity (BMI or WC). Living with a partner, for both men and women, and high fat and alcohol intake in men were factors that were consistently associated with higher adulthood BMI and WC levels. The differences observed between sexes may point to different lifestyles of men and women, suggesting that prevention policies should consider gender specific strategies.