The Comovement between Monetary and Fiscal Policy Instruments during the Post-War Period in the U.S.

This paper empirically studies the dynamic relationship between monetary and fiscal policies by analyzing the comovements between the Fed funds rate and the primary deficit/output ratio. Simple economic thinking establishes that a negative correlation between Fed rate and deficit arises whenever the two policy authorities share a common stabilization objective. However, when budget balancing concerns lead to a drastic deficit reduction the Fed may reduce the Fed rate in order to smooth the impact of fiscal policy, which results in a positive correlation between these two policy instruments. The empirical results show (i) a significant negative comovement between Fed rate and deficit and (ii) that deficit and output gap Granger-cause the Fed funds rate during the post-Volcker era, but the opposite is not true.

Testing for a random walk in Italy's inflation in the post-war period, 1947-1996

This paper investigates the unit root properties of Italy’s inflation rate in the post-war period (1947-1996). To achieve the aim of this study, the Zivot and Andrews (1992) one break test and the Lumsdaine and Papell (1997) two breaks test for unit roots are applied. It is found that inflation for Italy was a non-stationary breakpoint for the period 1947-1996. This result has important implications for econometric modeling and in understanding the behavior of shocks to Italy’s inflation.

The welfare cost of macroeconomic uncertainty in the post-war period

Lucas (1987) has shown the surprising result that the welfare cost of business cycles is quite small. Using standard assumptions on preferences and a fully-áedged econometric model we computed the welfare costs of macroeconomic uncertainty for the post-WWII era using the multivariate Beveridge-Nelson decomposition for trends and cycles, which considers not only business-cycle uncertainty but also uncertainty from the stochastic trend in consumption. The post-WWII period is relatively quiet, with the welfare costs of uncertainty being about 0:9% of per-capita consumption. Although changing the decomposition method changed substantially initial results, the welfare cost of uncertainty is qualitatively small in the post-WWII era - about $175.00 a year per-capita in the U.S. We also computed the marginal welfare cost of macroeconomic uncertainty using this same technique. It is about twice as large as the welfare cost ñ$350.00 a year per-capita.

The welfare cost of macroeconomic uncertainty in the post-war period

With standard assumptions on preferences and a fully-fledged econometric model we computed the welfare costs of macroeconomic uncertainty for post-war U.S. using the BeveridgeNelson decomposition. Welfare costs are about 0.9% per-capita consumption ($175.00) and marginal welfare costs are about twice as large.

El desarrollo social de América Latina en la postguerra = The social development of Latin America in the post-war period

Publicado sólo en español por Solar/Hachette de Buenos Aires

Unemployment compensation in the post-war period; suggestions for expanding and perfecting state unemployment compensation systems and a digest of state and federal provisions.

Mode of access: Internet.

Post War land reform and the impact on planning in Japan

One feature of Japanese urban areas in the 21st century that is bound to strike any Western visitor is the extensive spread of its suburbs with their varied mixing of land-uses. It is almost impossible to pinpoint precisely where the city begins and where it ends. During the post-War period, this characteristic pattern of land-use sprawled over the countryside, seemingly unimpeded by planning restrictions. The number of studies that highlight the problems of Japanese planning outweighs the research that explores its underlying causes. This paper aims to partly redress this imbalance by describing a case study of the failed implementation of the green belt around Tokyo and to link this with the Allied Occupation’s postwar land reforms and drafting of a new constitution in the period 1946-1951. Overall, we aim to highlight how the ostensible benefits and aims of a land reform programme can entail substantial disbenefits or unforeseen outcomes in terms of land-use planning..

The occupiers' burden: tackling food shortage and related health problems in post-war Germany 1945-47

The end of the Second World War brought much relief to its combatants, but a range of problems remained that would plague post-war Europe for years to come. Chief among them was food shortage. The breakdown of agricultural systems, essential services, and the state itself laid fertile ground for food shortage to develop in parts of post-war Germany occupied by the victorious powers. There is much to be gained from comparing the occupiers’ responses to this Horseman of the Apocalypse. The most fruitful comparison lies between the Soviets and British. Unlike the Americans whose economic might in the post-war period allowed them to better feed and supply Germans living in their occupation zone, domestic economic weaknesses hamstrung both Soviet and British responses to the more severe advent of food shortage which confronted them. Their responses were very different—some successful, others not—but all instructive for understanding the impacts of natural and policy factors on the development of food shortage and the consequences to the health of the population. The variety of these impacts have been obscured by the absence of this comparison in the literature, which is now made more feasible by the greater availability of the extensive resources that each occupier devoted to recording food and health data, particularly in the Soviet case. The data is not only relevant to the occupation period from 1945 to 1949, as it suggests long-term health impacts on those most exposed to the risk of food shortage then, and most at risk to the consequences of malnutrition decades later. In fact, as the available data defines regional differences in food rations and, accordingly, comparative food shortages in Soviet and British occupation zones, the situation in post-war Germany provides an excellent platform for future research linking differences in early nutrition to adult health outcomes.

Violence and xenophobia as means of social control in times of collapse: the soviet occupation of post-war Germany, 1945-1947

This article explores an overlooked aspect of the Soviet occupation of post-war Germany, namely, the influence of wartime violence on German behavioural patterns during the post-war period. Whilst many historians have noted that violent Soviet conduct in Germany merely encouraged the intensification of existing anti-Soviet attitudes therein, few have attempted to thoroughly investigate its influence on German behaviour. The conclusions made by those few historians who have done so are unsupported by the Soviet archival evidence drawn upon in the article. Using this evidence, the article highlights the tentative links between the violent repression of an occupation force and the muted responses of its subjects. It concludes that the nature of the repression and of the broader occupation landscape in which it developed, was integral in ensuring that the characteristically docile behaviour of the German population toward the Soviet occupier continued unabated throughout much of the occupation period.

Economic problems of the reconversion period. Fourth report of the House Special committee on post-war economic policy and planning, pursuant to H. Res. 408, a resolution creating a Special committee on post-war economic policy and planning

Mode of access: Internet.

The changing behaviour of the term structure of post-war US

Using U.S. interest rate data covering the period 1950:1-1992:7, this paper tests the rational expectations model of the term structure of interest rates. We show evidence that the rational expectations model of the term structure is supported by the data during the seventies and a period lasting from the mid-eighties to the end of the sample. However, during the …fties, sixties and a period that covers most of the Volcker’s office term (from September 1979 to April 1986) the term structure model is rejected by the data. Moreover, wefind evidence of regime changes in the short-term rate process and the term structure of interest rates. These regime switches roughly coincide with changes in the Federal Reserve chairman. The switches in monetary policy taking place when the chairmanship of the Federal Reserve changes therefore seem to play an important role in characterizing the term structure of interest rates.

Remaking asylum in post-war France, 1944−52

This article examines the steps by which asylum and the rights of refugees were remade in France after the Liberation. The legacy of the pre-1940 period, in which exclusive practices such as legislative prohibitions on refugees, expulsion and internment were the norm, resulted in the need, after the war, to restate and reaffirm republican prin- ciples. The article will examine the ideological assumptions that lay behind the postwar asylum debate, and address why it was necessary to place asylum so firmly within republican political culture

State intervention in technology in the post war years: case studies in technology policy

This thesis is concerned with the means by which the state in Britain has attempted to influence the technological development of private industry in the period 1945-1979. Particular emphasis is laid on assessing the abilities of technology policy measures to promote innovation. With that objective, the innovation literature is selectively reviewed to draw up an analytical framework to evaluate the innovation content of policy (Chapter 2). Technology policy is taken to consist of the specific measures utilised by government and its agents that affect the technological behaviour of firms. The broad sweep of policy during the period under consideration is described in Chapter 3 which concentrates on elucidating its institutional structure and the activities of the bodies involved. The empirical core of the thesis consists of three parallel case studies of policy toward the computer, machine tool and textile machinery industries (Chapters 4-6). The studies provide detailed historical accounts of the development and composition of policy, relating it to its specific institutional and industrial contexts. Each reveals a different pattern and level of state intervention. The thesis concludes with a comparative review of the findings of the case studies within a discussion centred on the arguments presented in Chapter 2. Topics arising include the state's differential support for the range of activities involved in innovation, the location of state-funded R&D, the encouragement of supplier-user contact, and the difficulties raised in adoption and diffusion.