The problem of estimating the volatility of zero coupon bond interest rate

Financial literature and financial industry use often zero coupon yield curves as input for testing hypotheses, pricing assets or managing risk. They assume this provided data as accurate. We analyse implications of the methodology and of the sample selection criteria used to estimate the zero coupon bond yield term structure on the resulting volatility of spot rates with different maturities. We obtain the volatility term structure using historical volatilities and Egarch volatilities. As input for these volatilities we consider our own spot rates estimation from GovPX bond data and three popular interest rates data sets: from the Federal Reserve Board, from the US Department of the Treasury (H15), and from Bloomberg. We find strong evidence that the resulting zero coupon bond yield volatility estimates as well as the correlation coefficients among spot and forward rates depend significantly on the data set. We observe relevant differences in economic terms when volatilities are used to price derivatives.

O fado e as artes : um século de cumplicidades e ambiguidades

Tem esta tese por objectivo a análise de um dos nossos factores identitários, o fado, ao longo de mais ou menos um século, desde a altura em que surgiu com a forma convencionalmente assumida (voz, guitarra e viola) até meados da passada centúria, numa perspectiva do seu comportamento como canção ligada à sociedade, sobretudo urbana, nos seus momentos bons e maus — e ao indivíduo, como tradução de sentimentos, mensagens de ordem política ou de crítica social, tal como aconteceria em períodos definidos, como a transição da Monarquia para a República e desta para a Ditadura Militar, que desembocaria no Estado Novo. Com letras escritas, primordialmente por poetas populares, capazes de grandes sínteses narrativas, seja do quotidiano ou dalguma eventual pequena tragédia amorosa, esta canção nascida nos bairros mais pobres da capital portuguesa, associada à prostituição e outros comportamentos considerados desviantes pela moral burguesa, levantou as mais apaixonadas contendas, pró e contra a sua sobrevivência, sobretudo durante o longo período ditatorial e até por parte do poder então vigente, por ser alegadamente desvirilizante, ao mesmo tempo que os sectores contrários ao regime, também a atacavam, argumentando que aquele dela se servia como intoxicante emblema nacionalista. Foi nossa tentativa compreender e analisar (desapaixonadamente) a forma como, afinal, algo odiado pelos extremos do espectro político, que assim concordavam em alguma coisa, concentravam as respectivas forças no ataque a uma mera manifestação artística, quando a sociedade se debatia com tantos e tão reais problemas, ao longo da segunda metade do século XIX, durante o agitado período republicano e nas décadas iniciais da ditadura salazarista. Isto ao mesmo tempo que o fado despertava o interesse de cada vez mais poetas eruditos e a sua temática, por vezes irreverente e arguta, servia de inspiração às mais diversas artes, afirmando-se como elemento popular agregador no plano interno e motivo de interesse crescente no estrangeiro.

Reconstructing native American migrations from whole-genome and whole-exome data.

There is great scientific and popular interest in understanding the genetic history of populations in the Americas. We wish to understand when different regions of the continent were inhabited, where settlers came from, and how current inhabitants relate genetically to earlier populations. Recent studies unraveled parts of the genetic history of the continent using genotyping arrays and uniparental markers. The 1000 Genomes Project provides a unique opportunity for improving our understanding of population genetic history by providing over a hundred sequenced low coverage genomes and exomes from Colombian (CLM), Mexican-American (MXL), and Puerto Rican (PUR) populations. Here, we explore the genomic contributions of African, European, and especially Native American ancestry to these populations. Estimated Native American ancestry is 48% in MXL, 25% in CLM, and 13% in PUR. Native American ancestry in PUR is most closely related to populations surrounding the Orinoco River basin, confirming the Southern American ancestry of the Taíno people of the Caribbean. We present new methods to estimate the allele frequencies in the Native American fraction of the populations, and model their distribution using a demographic model for three ancestral Native American populations. These ancestral populations likely split in close succession: the most likely scenario, based on a peopling of the Americas 16 thousand years ago (kya), supports that the MXL Ancestors split 12.2kya, with a subsequent split of the ancestors to CLM and PUR 11.7kya. The model also features effective populations of 62,000 in Mexico, 8,700 in Colombia, and 1,900 in Puerto Rico. Modeling Identity-by-descent (IBD) and ancestry tract length, we show that post-contact populations also differ markedly in their effective sizes and migration patterns, with Puerto Rico showing the smallest effective size and the earlier migration from Europe. Finally, we compare IBD and ancestry assignments to find evidence for relatedness among European founders to the three populations.

Motivational, emotional, and behavioral correlates of fear of missing out

Social media utilities have made it easier than ever to know about the range of online or offline social activities one could be engaging. On the upside, these social resources provide a multitude of opportunities for interaction; on the downside, they often broadcast more options than can be pursued, given practical restrictions and limited time. This dual nature of social media has driven popular interest in the concept of Fear of Missing Out – popularly referred to as FoMO. Defined as a pervasive apprehension that others might be having rewarding experiences from which one is absent, FoMO is characterized by the desire to stay continually connected with what others are doing. The present research presents three studies conducted to advance an empirically based understanding of the fear of missing out phenomenon. The first study collected a diverse international sample of participants in order to create a robust individual differences measure of FoMO, the Fear of Missing Out scale (FoMOs); this study is the first to operationalize the construct. Study 2 recruited a nationally representative cohort to investigate how demographic, motivational and well-being factors relate to FoMO. Study 3 examined the behavioral and emotional correlates of fear of missing out in a sample of young adults. Implications of the FoMOs measure and for the future study of FoMO are discussed.

Some Early Geologists and Their Work in Montana

This paper marks an increased refinement and more detailed accuracy in the description of the geological features of the state. It includes the recent studies of mineral deposits, of oil structures, of the formations of bedded rocks and their included fossils, carried on both by the Federal and State governments and by various interested private persons, such as the mining companies. It is within this period that the Federal Government encouraged the U. S. Geological Survey in the publication of monographs on the National Parks, papers of great popular interest and educational value making these beautiful regions comprehensible in their geological features to the touring public.

Os limites constitucionais ao exercício de direito de patente e seus reflexos na indústria do petróleo, gás natural e biocombustíveis

This dissertation deals with the constitutional limits on the exercise of patent rights and its effects on the oil, natural gas and biofuels. Held with the support of ANP / PETROBRAS, It seeks to show how the law will limit the exercise of industrial property, based on a reinterpretation of private law by the constitutional development perspective . Today it is a fact that Petrobras, a Brazilian joint venture, has the latest technology in various sectors of the oil industry, and is one of the highest investments in developing new technologies. The overall objective of this thesis is to establish the relationship between the public interest of the Petroleum Industry, Natural Gas and Biofuels and constitutional limits to the free exercise of patent rights, then confirm or refute our hypothesis that Article 71 on Industrial Property Law is contrary to the existing objectives in Article 3 of the Constitution of the Federative Republic of Brazil. The research aims to examine the relevant aspects of the legal nature attributed to IPGN constitutionally confronting the constitutional limits on the free exercise of patent rights, with the purpose to outline the state of the performance limits in the regulation of the economy, in particular the application of feasibility limitations on the right of property in favor of national interest on the strategic energy industry. The aim is to confront the fundamental rights to property and economic development, against the public interest, limiting these first. As to the objectives, the research will be theoretical and descriptive and harvest of industrial property, respect the possible impact of regulatory standards and limiting the right of ownership in the oil industry. To establish how the state will mitigate the intellectual property right, we discuss, at first, a definition of public interest from the general theory of state and sovereign character in order to establish a new concept of national interest and popular interest, which will in turn the definition of our concept of public interest. In the second phase, will be addressed the issue of industrial property rights and how to will be free exercise thereof, in the constitutional sphere, infra, and demonstrating the use of industrial property rights with examples of market and IPGN . After situating the industrial property rights in the constitution and national legislation, establish their relationship with the national and regional development, will be addressed in this chapter in particular the patent law, as most usual form of intellectual property protection in IPGN. Used a study highlighting the number of patents in the area of the analyzed industry, demonstrating with hard data the importance of a sector for industrial development. The relationship between the social function of intellectual property and the constitutional objective of development was characterized to demonstrate the strategic nature of oil to Brazil in the national and international scene, and put into question the hypothesis of the research which provides that even with large investments the lack of legal certainty in the sector turns out not to have a considerable volume of investment as it could.

On the robustness of short-term interest rate models

This paper investigates the robustness of a range of short–term interest rate models. We examine the robustness of these models over different data sets, time periods, sampling frequencies, and estimation techniques. We examine a range of popular one–factor models that allow the conditional mean (drift) and conditional variance (diffusion) to be functions of the current short rate. We find that parameter estimates are highly sensitive to all of these factors in the eight countries that we examine. Since parameter estimates are not robust, these models should be used with caution in practice.

Antioxidant properties of natural compounds used in popular medicine for gastric ulcers

There is evidence concerning the participation of reactive oxygen species in the etiology and physiopathology of human diseases, such as neurodegenerative disorders, inflammation, viral infections, autoimmune pathologies, and digestive system disorders such as gastrointestinal inflammation and gastric ulcer. The role of these reactive oxygen species in several diseases and the potential antioxidant protective effect of natural compounds on affected tissues are topics of high current interest. To consider a natural compound or a drug as an antioxidant substance it is necessary to investigate its antioxidant properties in vitro and then to evaluate its antioxidant functions in biological systems. In this review article, we shall consider the role of natural antioxidants derived from popular plants to reduce or prevent the oxidative stress in gastric ulcer induced by ethanol.

Política cultural no RN: uma avaliação das casas de cultura popular (2003/2010)

The issue of public policy for the culture area has experienced a significant increase of interest of academic researchers. The research "Cultural Policy in infants: an evaluation of the home culture (2003/2010)" aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of cultural policy in Rio Grande do Norte in the period 2003/2010. When was the program created and deployed the houses of popular culture. Specifically, he sought: a) mapping the major elements of cultural policy in the RN during the chronological period mentioned b) hold up in more detail in the description of the implementation process of the houses of popular culture, c) investigate cultural actions implemented by the houses of popular culture and its effectiveness. The methodological process consisted of a review of the literature on culture, cultural policy, public policy and public policy evaluation for the construction of the theoretical-analytical, documentary research in public and private institutions related cultural production; interview with managers and cultural producers in visits field research conducted in seven major houses of popular culture, taken as a sample of the total d 29 outlets installed during the chronological period mentioned. The survey found that the program houses RN popular culture in general was effective in meeting its objectives, among which the decentralization of cultural inclusion in the artist market cultural production, the promotion of folk traditions in the region , respect and support for new artists, respect and support for popular memory

A participação popular na elaboração de políticas públicas de desenvolvimento local: um estudo no Município de Serrinha/RN (1997-2004)

The question of participation has been debated in Brazil since the 1980 decade in search a better way to take care of poulation s demand. More specificaly after the democratic open (1985) begins to be thought ways to make population participates of decisions related to alocation of public resources. The characteristic of participates actualy doesn t exist, population to be carried through is, at top, consulted, and the fact population participates stays restrict to some technics interests at the projects, mainly of public politics of local development. Observe that this implementation happens through a process and that has its limits (pass) that could be surpassed through strategies made to that. This dissertation shows results of a research about participative practices in city of Serrinha between 1997 and 2004, showing through a study of the case of Serrinha what was the process used to carry through these pratices in a moment and local considered model of this application. The analyses were developed through a model of research elaborated by the author based on large literature respects the ideal process to implant a participative public politics. The present research had a qualitative boarding, being explorative and descritive nature. The researcher (author of this dissertation) carried through all the research phases, including the transcriptions of interviews that were recorded with a digital voice recorder. Before the analysis of these data was verified that despite the public manager (former-mayor) had had a real interest in implant a process of local development in city, he was not able to forsee the correct process to do it. Two high faults were made. The first was the intention to have as tool a development plan, what locked up to make this plan was the booster of supossed participative pratice and no the ideal model that would be a plan generate by popular initiative. The second one was absence of a critical education project for the population that should be the fisrt step to carry through a politc like that

Teatro União e Olho Vivo: cultura tradicional e arte popular

Pós-graduação em Artes - IA

Responsabilidade social na moradia popular: estudo do Programa de Arrendamento Residencial em Ribeirão Preto, SP

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Women writing Ireland, 1798 – 1921: il popular novel tra identità nazionale e immaginario religioso nelle autrici cattoliche e protestanti.

La presente tesi si concentra sul romanzo popolare irlandese scritto da donne, nel periodo compreso tra il 1798 e il 1921. Quattro sono le autrici prese in considerazione: Charlotte Elizabeth Tonna, Sydney Owenson (meglio conosciuta come Lady Morgan), Edith Somerville e Katharine Tynan, le cui vite e opere coprono un periodo storico fondamentale per l’uscita dell’Irlanda dal dominio coloniale britannico e la formazione della nazione irlandese nel sud del paese. L’interesse principale è quello di analizzare il modo in cui nei loro testi prende forma la nazione, e in particolare attraverso quali immagini e riferimenti religiosi. Il senso è quello, dunque, di rileggere tali testi prestando maggiore attenzione alla religione, uno dei principali collanti tra autrici e pubblico: all’epoca in cui l’Irlanda stava acquisendo i confini che oggi ancora mantiene, esisteva un terreno d’incontro tra discorso politico e letterario, quello della nazione, e tale terreno veniva attraversato anche dal messaggio religioso. Il fine ultimo è quello di dimostrare che la letteratura popolare non è “seconda” ad altre quanto a valori che è in grado di trasmettere e a messaggi che è in grado di veicolare: trascurarla significa non capire i meccanismi attraverso i quali una società si sviluppa e si modifica.

Individuales y colectivas : la vivienda popular en la agenda política y técnica del período conservador (Mendoza, 1932-1943)

La primera mitad del siglo XX, fue un período de discusión y experimentación en torno al tema de la habitación popular. El interés por la modernización del hábitat, la industrialización de la construcción y la necesidad del abaratamiento de la vivienda para el “alojamiento popular", hizo que algunos estados provinciales comenzaran a plantear su intervención en el tema habitacional a través de políticas públicas que facilitaran el acceso a la vivienda. Este artículo presenta la acción técnico-política del período conservador en torno de la vivienda popular, es decir, sobre la habitación individual o colectiva de bajo costo destinada a sectores sociales medios y bajos, provista por el Estado en forma masiva y que responde a propuestas de técnicos, en nuestro caso, arquitectos insertos en la burocracia estatal. Abordamos, en clave histórica, los proyectos y las concreciones que consideramos sitúan a Mendoza como una de las primeras provincias argentinas en encarar el “problema de la vivienda" desde la órbita estatal en los años treinta.

Lo popular en la arquitectura moderna en España. Coderch, Fisac, De La Sota, Fernández del Amo

Desde los orígenes, la construcción popular ha vivido al lado --a veces, dentro-- de la arquitectura culta, encargándose de dar noticia y alojo a lo más vital de la existencia y poniéndose al servicio de lo construido para la pura representación. El interés por incorporar intelectualmente los depósitos plásticos, constructivos y funcionales de esa arquitectura anónima ha sido determinante para la configuración del Ciclo Moderno. Esta tesis se focaliza en la arquitectura que se hizo en la España de mediados del pasado siglo y que, de la mano de arquitectos como Fisac, Coderch, De la Sota y Fernández del Amo, entre otros, concretó un momento dulce en nuestra manera del construir y de habitar, fundamentado en una nueva mirada a lo popular, que supuso una contestación desde el realismo al tipismo de la Reconstrucción, la arquitectura monumentalista de la década de los 40. A partir del estudio sobre ese momento concreto de la arquitectura, nuestro campo reflexivo se amplía, por un lado, hacia la arquitectura de la Vanguardia de la II República (a la que, en cierto modo, se remite) y, por otro, hacia la rama de la arquitectura del Desarrollismo de los años 60, en la que continuó la invocación a lo popular como sustancia del proyecto, si bien entendida ahora en un sentido más amplio. La arquitectura de los maestros que articulan nuestro trabajo, entró de lleno en el debate sobre lo contextual, que acabará oficializándose tras la crisis del Movimiento Moderno acaecida sobre las ruinas de la II Guerra Mundial. El motivo de esta tesis es intentar hacer aflorar los útiles proyectuales de estas arquitecturas empeñadas en el arraigo, particularmente en un momento como el actual, en el que están experimentando un interesante renacer global. ABSTRACT From its origins, popular or traditional architecture has lived next door -- sometimes within-- high architecture, in charge of hosting and providing information about the most vital part of human existence, serving to what is built just for purely representative matters. Such an interest in intellectually incorporating the plastic, constructive and functional deposits from anonymous architecture has been instrumental in the configuration of the Modern Architectural Cycle. This thesis focuses on the architecture made in Spain halfway through the last century. Our way of building and living went through an extraordinary period by means of the work of architects such as Fisac, Coderch, De la Sota and Fernández del Amo, among others. Their projects, based on a new look at our popular material, became a rejoinder from realism to the picturesque model of the so-called Reconstrucción, the monumental architecture of the 40s. From the study of this particular architectural moment, the objective of our reflection widens, on the one hand, to the architecture of the Avantgarde of the II Spanish Republic (to which it somehow refers) and, secondly, to a branch of the architecture of the 60s (when an extraordinary development boom took place in Spain) which kept on relying on the popular as the essence of the project, although now understood in a broader sense. The architecture of the masters who articulate our work, engaged fully in the debate on the role of context which will eventually be formalized after the crisis of the Modern Movement occurred on the ruins of World War II. The purpose of this thesis is to try to bring out some of the project tools from these architectures committed to roots, particularly now, when they are experiencing an interesting overall reborn.