Optimal strategies in political elections

In the Majoritarian Parliamentary System, the government has a constitutional right to call an early election. This right provides the government a control to achieve its objective to remain in power for as long as possible. We model the early election problem mathematically using opinion polls data as a stochastic process to proxy the government's probability of re-election. These data measure the difference in popularity between the government and the opposition. We fit a mean reverting Stochastic Differential Equation to describe the behaviour of the process and consider the possibility for the government to use other control tools, which are termed 'boosts' to induce shocks to the opinion polls by making timely policy announcements or economic actions. These actions improve the government's popularity and have some impact upon the early-election exercise boundary. © Austral. Mathematical Soc. 2005.

Större frihet - bättre lokalt anpassad service? : Förvaltningsreformer och kommunernas service för utvecklingsstörda 1994-2000

In the beginning of the 1990s the legislation regarding the municipalities and the system of central government transfers were reformed in Finland. This resulted in a move from detailed governmental control to increased municipal autonomy. The purpose of this decentralization was to enable the municipalities to better adapt their administration and service supply to local needs. The aim of this study was to explore the effects of the increased municipal autonomy on the organization of services for people with intellectual disabilities. Did the increased autonomy cause the municipalities to alter their service supply and production and did the services become more adapted to local needs? The data consists of statistical information on service use and production, and also of background data such as demographics, economics and political elections on 452 municipalities in Finland from the years 1994 and 2000. The methods used are cluster analysis, discriminant analysis and factor analysis. The municipalities could be grouped in two categories: those which offered mainly one kind of residential services and others which had more varied mixes of services. The use of institutional care had decreased and municipalities which used institutional care as their primary form of service were mostly very small municipalities in 2000. The situation had changed from 1994, when institutional care was the primary service for municipalities of all sizes. Also the service production had become more differentiated and the municipalities had started using more varied ways of production. More municipalities had started producing their own services and private production had increased as well. Furthermore, the increase in local autonomy had opened up possibilities for local politics to influence both the service selection and methods of production. The most significant motive for changes in the service structure was high unemployment and an increasing share of elderly people in the population, particularly in sparsely populated areas. Municipalities with a low level of resources had made more changes in their service organization while those with more resources had been able to carry on as before. Key words: service structure, service for people with intellectual disabilities, municipalities, contingency theory, New Public Management

Going twice to the polls?: Optimality of two-stage voting procedures

A Masters Thesis, presented as part of the requirements for the award of a Research Masters Degree in Economics from NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Il Pluralismo tra Democrazia ed Autoritarismo: Il Caso Russo

The research explores the mechanisms in the formation and consolidation of a new regime which combines democratic and authoritarian features; it has emerged as result of democratization processes affecting different world areas in recent years. The study analyses a case of great international significance, post-communist Russia: here internal factors strongly prevail in front of the external variables of democratic imitation and contagion, thus showing to what extent Russia differs from other political contexts. The study intends to examine the strategies used by this regime to solve internal conflicts and become stable in spite of the democratizing pressures coming from outside. Indeed, the literature about political transformations has shown the problems in analyzing these polities together with the need to examine their peculiarities more in depth. In this perspective, the first section focuses on the dynamics of State-building in Russia as a fundamental process in tracing the specific characteristics of the current regime: particularly, it is suggested that the State dimension comes out as crucial in determining the level of political and social pluralism accepted in post-Soviet Russia. This argument is worked out in the second section, which analyses the main mechanisms used by the incumbents to limit and control pluralism within the two arenas of political competition and civil society, from where the major threats to the status quo are supposed to come. The main hypothesis is that the leadership interventions in these spheres during the last ten years have shaped a regime which can be characterized as a new type of authoritarianism: with respect to traditional authoritarian forms a certain degree of political contestation is accepted, visible in the presence of a multiparty system, semi-competitive elections and of the several representatives of civil society. Yet, this diversity is curbed basically in two different ways: from one hand the incumbents provide support to political and social actors who sponsor government politics (see the party of power and pro-Kremlin movements). From the other they use some non coercive forms of control and restriction (in legislation, in political elections) against those actors who promote values and priorities opposed to the official ones.

Evaluating social choice techniques into intelligent environments by agent based social simulation

The primary hypothesis stated by this paper is that the use of social choice theory in Ambient Intelligence systems can improve significantly users satisfaction when accessing shared resources. A research methodology based on agent based social simulations is employed to support this hypothesis and to evaluate these benefits. The result is a six-fold contribution summarized as follows. Firstly, several considerable differences between this application case and the most prominent social choice application, political elections, have been found and described. Secondly, given these differences, a number of metrics to evaluate different voting systems in this scope have been proposed and formalized. Thirdly, given the presented application and the metrics proposed, the performance of a number of well known electoral systems is compared. Fourthly, as a result of the performance study, a novel voting algorithm capable of obtaining the best balance between the metrics reviewed is introduced. Fifthly, to improve the social welfare in the experiments, the voting methods are combined with cluster analysis techniques. Finally, the article is complemented by a free and open-source tool, VoteSim, which ensures not only the reproducibility of the experimental results presented, but also allows the interested reader to adapt the case study presented to different environments.

La publicidad institucional en la Junta de Andalucía

A partir de las inserciones publicitarias realizadas por la Junta de Andalucía durante el período 1999-2009, se analiza la evolución de la publicidad gubernamental andaluza perteneciente a los distintos ámbitos (Social, Político, Corporativo y Comercial) y sectores de la publicidad institucional, centrando nuestra atención, primordialmente, en tres cuestiones fundamentales: de qué, cuándo y dónde hace publicidad la Junta de Andalucía. El objeto de la investigación cuyos resultados se presentan en esta investigación es conocer el comportamiento de la Junta de Andalucía como anunciante.

Elephant - "Where's that man Osborn?"

Pencil cartoon from newspaper drawn by artist, last name May, probably from the 1910 Michigan gubernatorial election.

Chase Osborn as David preparing to slay the "brewery interests" as Goliath with "2nd term" of the stone

Original in color

Betting on winner: the effect of local elections on corporate political activity outcomes

How can managers successfully access political rents by way of corporate political strategies (CPA)? Existing research has suggested several endogenous factors that correlate with CPA outcomes. I offer a more robust solution to this problem. Drawing on insights from the perspective of CPA as exchanges between firms and political decision-makers, and from the special interest politics of political economy, I develop and test a causal mechanism that links local elections, legislative bargaining and access to political rents at the national level. I conducted a natural experiment using regression discontinuity design and propensity score matching in municipal elections in Brazil to show that firms enjoy superior access to subsidized financing from the state-owned national development bank (BNDES) when they decide to invest in municipalities whose winning mayoral candidate is coalition-aligned with the national ruler. This effect fades away fades away as the level of competition in the local election decreases. The evidence implies that when managers bet on national coalition-aligned winners in close local elections, they positively affect CPA outcomes. I extend the exchange-based typology of corporate political strategies by offering a novel possibility of targeting voters with financial inducements, which I call a private local development strategy. Finally, these results show that firms exchange their project-execution capabilities for superior access to subsidized financing.