As chuvas na bacia do Paraná: aspectos temporais, espaciais e rítmicos. -

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Variabilidade pluviométrica e a dinâmica atmosférica na bacia hidrográfica do rio Ivaí-PR

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Eventos extremos da zona de convergência intertropical sobre o Atlântico durante o período chuvoso da Amazônia oriental

Este trabalho reporta uma investigação observacional sobre as características climatológicas (período de 1985 a 2007) associadas aos eventos extremos da ZCIT observados sobre o Oceano Atlântico equatorial, procurando estabelecer as influências na variabilidade pluviométrica da Amazônia oriental, durante os meses de fevereiro, março e abril. Tais eventos foram selecionados objetivamente através da análise de Funções Ortogonais Empíricas e os padrões oceano-atmosfera associados aos eventos da ZCIT, bem como seus impactos na precipitação da Amazônia oriental, foram investigados com base em composições mensais. Os resultados evidenciaram algumas diferenças mensais, principalmente no padrão da circulação atmosférica em 200 hPa e na configuração vertical da circulação troposférica meridional associada à célula de Hadley equatorial. Quanto à estrutura dinâmica dos padrões oceano-atmosfera observada nos meses de fevereiro, março e abril, basicamente evidenciou-se que a ZCIT forma-se sobre o Oceano Atlântico equatorial numa região de confluência dos ventos alísios de sudeste e nordeste, coincidente com áreas contendo TSM anomalamente quente, movimento vertical ascendente associado à célula de Hadley, com divergência do vento em altos níveis. Os impactos de tais eventos na variabilidade espacial da precipitação sobre a Amazônia oriental mostrou que os principais estados afetados pela ZCIT são: Amapá, Pará e Maranhão. Adicionalmente, relatam-se alguns impactos sócio-ambientais (enchentes, alagamentos, queda de árvores, proliferação de doenças, entre outros) que ocorreram na Região Metropolitana de Belém, associados a ocorrência dos eventos extremos da ZCIT selecionados neste trabalho.

SPATIAL VARIABILITY OF THE RAINFALL EROSIVE POTENTIAL IN THE STATE OF MATO GROSSO DO SUL, BRAZIL

Information about rainfall erosivity is important during soil and water conservation planning. Thus, the spatial variability of rainfall erosivity of the state Mato Grosso do Sul was analyzed using ordinary kriging interpolation. For this, three pluviograph stations were used to obtain the regression equations between the erosivity index and the rainfall coefficient EI30. The equations obtained were applied to 109 pluviometric stations, resulting in EI30 values. These values were analyzed from geostatistical technique, which can be divided into: descriptive statistics, adjust to semivariogram, cross-validation process and implementation of ordinary kriging to generate the erosivity map. Highest erosivity values were found in central and northeast regions of the State, while the lowest values were observed in the southern region. In addition, high annual precipitation values not necessarily produce higher erosivity values.

Weather variability, tides, and Barmah Forest Virus Disease in the Gladstone region, Australia

In this study we examined the impact of weather variability and tides on the transmission of Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease and developed a weather-based forecasting model for BFV disease in the Gladstone region, Australia. We used seasonal autoregressive integrated moving-average (SARIMA) models to determine the contribution of weather variables to BFV transmission after the time-series data of response and explanatory variables were made stationary through seasonal differencing. We obtained data on the monthly counts of BFV cases, weather variables (e.g., mean minimum and maximum temperature, total rainfall, and mean relative humidity), high and low tides, and the population size in the Gladstone region between January 1992 and December 2001 from the Queensland Department of Health, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Queensland Department of Transport, and Australian Bureau of Statistics, respectively. The SARIMA model shows that the 5-month moving average of minimum temperature (β = 0.15, p-value < 0.001) was statistically significantly and positively associated with BFV disease, whereas high tide in the current month (β = −1.03, p-value = 0.04) was statistically significantly and inversely associated with it. However, no significant association was found for other variables. These results may be applied to forecast the occurrence of BFV disease and to use public health resources in BFV control and prevention.

On analysing and interpreting variability in motor output

A recent article in the Journal of Science and Medicine in Sport by Chapman et al.1 reported data from an empirical investigation comparing lower extremity joint motions, joint coordination and muscle recruitment in expert and novice cyclists. 3D kinematic and intramuscular electromyographic (EMG) analyses revealed no differences between expert and novice cyclists for normalised joint angles and velocities of the pelvis, hip, knee and ankle. However, significant differences in the strength of sagittal plane kinematics for hip–ankle and knee–ankle joint couplings were reported, with expert cyclists displaying tighter coupling relationships than novice cyclists. Furthermore, significant differences between expert and novice cyclists for all muscle recruitment parameters, except timing of peak EMG amplitude, were also reported.

Magnitude and variability of loading on the osseointegrated implant of transfemoral amputees during walking

This study directly measured the load acting on the abutment of the osseointegrated implant system of transfemoral amputees during level walking, and studied the variability of the load within and among amputees. Twelve active transfemoral amputees (age: 54±12 years, mass:84.3±16.3 kg, height: 17.8±0.10 m) fitted with an osseointegrated implant for over 1 year participated in the study. The load applied on the abutment was measured during unimpeded, level walking in a straight line using a commercial six-channel transducer mounted between the abutment and the prosthetic knee. The pattern and the magnitude of the three-dimensional forces and moments were revealed. Results showed a low step-to-step variability of each subject, but a high subject-to-subject variability in local extrema of body-weight normalized forces and moments and impulse data. The high subject-to-subject variability suggests that the mechanical design of the implant system should be customized for each individual, or that a fit-all design should take into consideration the highest values of load within a broad range of amputees. It also suggests specific loading regime in rehabilitation training are necessary for a given subject. Thus the loading magnitude and variability demonstrated should be useful in designing an osseointegrated implant system better able to resist mechanical failure and in refining the rehabilitation protocol.

Within-session variability modelling for factor analysis speaker verification

This work presents an extended Joint Factor Analysis model including explicit modelling of unwanted within-session variability. The goals of the proposed extended JFA model are to improve verification performance with short utterances by compensating for the effects of limited or imbalanced phonetic coverage, and to produce a flexible JFA model that is effective over a wide range of utterance lengths without adjusting model parameters such as retraining session subspaces. Experimental results on the 2006 NIST SRE corpus demonstrate the flexibility of the proposed model by providing competitive results over a wide range of utterance lengths without retraining and also yielding modest improvements in a number of conditions over current state-of-the-art.

Within- and between-day repeatability and variability in children's physiological responses during submaximal treadmill exercise

The purpose of this study was to verify within- and between-day repeatability and variability in children's oxygen uptake (VO^sub 2^), gross economy (GE; VO^sub 2^ divided by speed) and heart rate (HR) during treadmill walking based on self-selected speed (SS). Fourteen children (10.1 ± 1.4 years) undertook three testing sessions over 2 days in which four walking speeds, including SS were tested. Within- and between-day repeatability were assessed using the Bland and Altman method, and coefficients of variability (CV) were determined for each child across exercise bouts and averaged to obtain a mean group CV value for VO^sub 2^, GE, and HR per speed. Repeated measures analysis of variance showed no statistically significant differences in within- or between-day CV for VO^sub 2^, GE, or HR at any speed. Repeatability within- and between-day for VO^sub 2^, GE, and HR for all speeds was verified. These results suggest that submaximal VO^sub 2^ during treadmill walking is stable and reproducible at a range of speeds based on children's SS.

Weather variability, sunspots, and the blooms of cyanobacteria

The roles of weather variability and sunspots in the occurrence of cyanobacteria blooms, were investigated using cyanobacteria cell data collected from the Fred Haigh Dam, Queensland, Australia. Time series generalized linear model and classification and regression (CART) model were used in the analysis. Data on notified cell numbers of cyanobacteria and weather variables over the periods 2001 and 2005 were provided by the Australian Department of Natural Resources and Water, and Australian Bureau of Meteorology, respectively. The results indicate that monthly minimum temperature (relative risk [RR]: 1.13, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.02-1.25) and rainfall (RR: 1.11; 95% CI: 1.03-1.20) had a positive association, but relative humidity (RR: 0.94; 95% CI: 0.91-0.98) and wind speed (RR:0.90; 95% CI: 0.82-0.98) were negatively associated with the cyanobacterial numbers, after adjustment for seasonality and auto-correlation. The CART model showed that the cyanobacteria numbers were best described by an interaction between minimum temperature, relative humidity, and sunspot numbers. When minimum temperature exceeded 18%C and relative humidity was under 66%, the number of cyanobacterial cells rose by 2.15-fold. We conclude that the weather variability and sunspot activity may affect cyanobacterial blooms in dams.

Cardiac state diagnosis using higher order spectra of heart rate variability

Heart rate variability (HRV) refers to the regulation of the sinoatrial node, the natural pacemaker of the heart, by the sympathetic and parasympathetic branches of the autonomic nervous system. Heart rate variability analysis is an important tool to observe the heart's ability to respond to normal regulatory impulses that affect its rhythm. A computer-based intelligent system for analysis of cardiac states is very useful in diagnostics and disease management. Like many bio-signals, HRV signals are nonlinear in nature. Higher order spectral analysis (HOS) is known to be a good tool for the analysis of nonlinear systems and provides good noise immunity. In this work, we studied the HOS of the HRV signals of normal heartbeat and seven classes of arrhythmia. We present some general characteristics for each of these classes of HRV signals in the bispectrum and bicoherence plots. We also extracted features from the HOS and performed an analysis of variance (ANOVA) test. The results are very promising for cardiac arrhythmia classification with a number of features yielding a p-value < 0.02 in the ANOVA test.

Spatial variability of soil carbon in forested and cultivated sites: Implications for change detection

The potential to sequester atmospheric carbon in agricultural and forest soils to offset greenhouse gas emissions has generated interest in measuring changes in soil carbon resulting from changes in land management. However, inherent spatial variability of soil carbon limits the precision of measurement of changes in soil carbon and hence, the ability to detect changes. We analyzed variability of soil carbon by intensively sampling sites under different land management as a step toward developing efficient soil sampling designs. Sites were tilled crop-land and a mixed deciduous forest in Tennessee, and old-growth and second-growth coniferous forest in western Washington, USA. Six soil cores within each of three microplots were taken as an initial sample and an additional six cores were taken to simulate resampling. Soil C variability was greater in Washington than in Tennessee, and greater in less disturbed than in more disturbed sites. Using this protocol, our data suggest that differences on the order of 2.0 Mg C ha(-1) could be detected by collection and analysis of cores from at least five (tilled) or two (forest) microplots in Tennessee. More spatial variability in the forested sites in Washington increased the minimum detectable difference, but these systems, consisting of low C content sandy soil with irregularly distributed pockets of organic C in buried logs, are likely to rank among the most spatially heterogeneous of systems. Our results clearly indicate that consistent intramicroplot differences at all sites will enable detection of much more modest changes if the same microplots are resampled.