The Coxian Phase-type distribution with a Hidden Node

Healthcare providers are under increased pressure to ensure that the quality
of care delivered to patients are off the highest standard. Modelling quality of
care is difficult due to the many ways of defining it. This paper introduces a potential
model which could be used to take quality of care into account when modelling
length of stay. The Coxian phase-type distribution is used to model length of stay
and quality of care incorporated into this using a Hidden Markov model. This model
is then applied to

Fitting phase type distribution to service process with sequential phases

The work of this thesis is concerned with fitting Hypo-exponential and Erlang phase type distributions for modeling real life processes with non-exponential service time. There exist situations where exponential distributions cannot explain the distribution of service time properly. This thesis presents the application of two traditional statistical estimation techniques to approximate the service distributions of processes with coefficient of variation less than one. It also presents an algorithm to fit Hypo-exponential distribution for complex situations which can’t be handled properly with traditional estimation techniques. The result shows the effect of variation of sample size and other parameters on the efficiency of the estimation techniques by comparing their respective outputs. Furthermore it checks how accurately the proposed algorithm approximates a given distribution.

Phase fraction distribution measurement of oil-water flow using a capacitance wire-mesh sensor

In this paper, a novel wire-mesh sensor based on permittivity (capacitance) measurements is applied to generate images of the phase fraction distribution and investigate the flow of viscous oil and water in a horizontal pipe. Phase fraction values were calculated from the raw data delivered by the wire-mesh sensor using different mixture permittivity models. Furthermore, these data were validated against quick-closing valve measurements. Investigated flow patterns were dispersion of oil in water (Do/w) and dispersion of oil in water and water in oil (Do/w&w/o). The Maxwell-Garnett mixing model is better suited for Dw/o and the logarithmic model for Do/w&w/o flow pattern. Images of the time-averaged cross-sectional oil fraction distribution along with axial slice images were used to visualize and disclose some details of the flow.

Genotype and mating type distribution within clinical Cryptococcus neoformans and Cryptococcus gattii isolates from patients with cryptococcal meningitis in Uberaba, Minas Gerais, Brazil

We molecularly characterized 81 cryptococcal isolates recovered from cerebrospinal fluid samples of 77 patients diagnosed between 1998 and 2007 as having cryptococcal meningitis in Uberaba Minas Gerais, Brazil. Fifty-seven (74%) were male with a mean age 35.6 years. Seventy-two (88.9%) of the isolates were from 68 AIDS patients and cryptococcosis was the first AIDS-defining condition in 38 (55.9%) patients. Cryptococcosis and AIDS were simultaneously diagnosed in 25 (65.8%) of these 38 patients. Genotypes were characterized through the use of URA5 restriction fragment length polymorphisms analysis, the genetic variability was determined using PCR-fingerprinting with the minisatellite-specific primer M13, and the mating type and serotypes were established by PCR. Seventy-six of the 81 isolates were Cryptococcus neoformans (93.8%), while the remaining five were C. gattii (6.1%), but all were mating type a. C. neoformans isolates were genotype VNI (serotype A), while C. gattii isolates were VGII. Four of the latter isolates were identical, but only two were from AIDS patients. Six of the nine isolates from non-AIDS patients were VNI. PCR fingerprints of the isolates from two of the three AIDS patients with clinical relapse were 100% identical. The predominance of VNI and mating type a is in accordance with data from other parts of the world. The occurrence of VGII in Minas Gerais indicates a geographical expansion within Brazil.

maintenance model for systems with phase-type distributed times to failure

Magdeburg, Univ., Fak. für Mathematik, Diss., 2010

Human Papillomavirus (HPV) Type Distribution in Females with Abnormal Cervical Cytology. A Correlation with Histological Study

The aim of this study was to determine human papillomavirus (HPV) types distribution in cervical preneoplasic lesions in a Southern Spanish population and their relationship between HPV type and grade of histopathological abnormality. Finally, 232 cervical samples from 135 women with previous cytological abnormalities were included in this study. Colposcopy studies and biopsies were performed. Haematoxylin-eosin stained slides were observed and detection of HPV DNA in cervical swabs was carried out with use of a polymerase chain reaction and microarrays technology. The relationship between the presence of HPV infection and diagnostic variables was evaluated. HPV 16 was the most common type followed by HPV 58, 51, 33 and 31. However, the two HPV types targeted in the prophylactic vaccines such as HPV type 16 and 18 were detected in only 37 (21.2%) and 2 (1.1%) cases respectively. Thirty-three (18.9%) of samples were infected with multiple types, the majority of them with two types. In addition, during the follow-up of patients many changes in type distribution were observed. Several studies will be necessary in order to evaluate the HPV type distribution for therapeutically and prophylactic purposes such as vaccine treatment. Also, because of the differences obtained depending of use of various DNA technologies, the performance of some comparative studies of the different methods from detection of HPV would be advisable in a high population of patients and with the most homogeneous conditions possible.

Antimicrobial susceptibility patterns, emm type distribution and genetic diversity of Streptococcus pyogenes recovered in Brazil

Streptococcus pyogenes is responsible for a variety of infectious diseases and immunological complications. In this study, 91 isolates of S. pyogenes recovered from oropharynx secretions were submitted to antimicrobial susceptibility testing, emm typing and pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) analysis. All isolates were susceptible to ceftriaxone, levofloxacin, penicillin G and vancomycin. Resistance to erythromycin and clindamycin was 15.4%, which is higher than previous reports from this area, while 20.9% of the isolates were not susceptible to tetracycline. The macrolide resistance phenotypes were cMLSB (10) and iMLSB (4). The ermB gene was predominant, followed by the ermA gene. Thirty-two emm types and subtypes were found, but five (emm1, emm4, emm12, emm22, emm81) were detected in 48% of the isolates. Three new emm subtypes were identified (emm1.74, emm58.14, emm76.7). There was a strong association between emm type and PFGE clustering. A variety of PFGE profiles as well as emm types were found among tetracycline and erythromycin-resistant isolates, demonstrating that antimicrobial resistant strains do not result from the expansion of one or a few clones. This study provides epidemiological data that contribute to the development of suitable strategies for the prevention and treatment of such infections in a poorly studied area.

Actuarial applications of multivariate phase-type distributions : model calibration and credibility

Thèse numérisée par la Division de la gestion de documents et des archives de l'Université de Montréal

DISTRIBUTED APPROACH FOR SOLVING OPTIMAL POWER FLOW PROBLEMS IN THREE-PHASE UNBALANCED DISTRIBUTION NETWORK

The objective of this report is to study distributed (decentralized) three phase optimal power flow (OPF) problem in unbalanced power distribution networks. A full three phase representation of the distribution networks is considered to account for the highly unbalance state of the distribution networks. All distribution network’s series/shunt components, and load types/combinations had been modeled on commercial version of General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS), the high-level modeling system for mathematical programming and optimization. The OPF problem has been successfully implemented and solved in a centralized approach and distributed approach, where the objective is to minimize the active power losses in the entire system. The study was implemented on the IEEE-37 Node Test Feeder. A detailed discussion of all problem sides and aspects starting from the basics has been provided in this study. Full simulation results have been provided at the end of the report.

Antibiotic Susceptibility and Sequence Type Distribution of Ureaplasma Species Isolated from Genital Samples in Switzerland.

Antibiotic resistance in Ureaplasma urealyticum/Ureaplasma parvum and Mycoplasma hominis is an issue of increasing importance. However, data regarding the susceptibility and, more importantly, the clonality of these organisms are limited. We analyzed 140 genital samples obtained in Bern, Switzerland, in 2014. Identification and antimicrobial susceptibility tests were performed by using the Mycoplasma IST 2 kit and sequencing of 16S rRNA genes. MICs for ciprofloxacin and azithromycin were obtained in broth microdilution assays. Clonality was analyzed with PCR-based subtyping and multilocus sequence typing (MLST), whereas quinolone resistance and macrolide resistance were studied by sequencing gyrA, gyrB, parC, and parE genes, as well as 23S rRNA genes and genes encoding L4/L22 ribosomal proteins. A total of 103 samples were confirmed as positive for U. urealyticum/U. parvum, whereas 21 were positive for both U. urealyticum/U. parvum and M. hominis. According to the IST 2 kit, the rates of nonsusceptibility were highest for ciprofloxacin (19.4%) and ofloxacin (9.7%), whereas low rates were observed for clarithromycin (4.9%), erythromycin (1.9%), and azithromycin (1%). However, inconsistent results between microdilution and IST 2 kit assays were recorded. Various sequence types (STs) observed previously in China (ST1, ST2, ST4, ST9, ST22, and ST47), as well as eight novel lineages, were detected. Only some quinolone-resistant isolates had amino acid substitutions in ParC (Ser83Leu in U. parvum of serovar 6) and ParE (Val417Thr in U. parvum of serovar 1 and the novel Thr417Val substitution in U. urealyticum). Isolates with mutations in 23S rRNA or substitutions in L4/L22 were not detected. This is the first study analyzing the susceptibility of U. urealyticum/U. parvum isolates in Switzerland and the clonality outside China. Resistance rates were low compared to those in other countries. We hypothesize that some hyperepidemic STs spread worldwide via sexual intercourse. Large combined microbiological and clinical studies should address this important issue.