Chronological Monte Carlo-based assessment of distribution system reliability

Regulatory authorities in many countries, in order to maintain an acceptable balance between appropriate customer service qualities and costs, are introducing a performance-based regulation. These regulations impose penalties, and in some cases rewards, which introduce a component of financial risk to an electric power utility due to the uncertainty associated with preserving a specific level of system reliability. In Brazil, for instance, one of the reliability indices receiving special attention by the utilities is the Maximum Continuous Interruption Duration per customer (MCID). This paper describes a chronological Monte Carlo simulation approach to evaluate probability distributions of reliability indices, including the MCID, and the corresponding penalties. In order to get the desired efficiency, modern computational techniques are used for modeling (UML -Unified Modeling Language) as well as for programming (Object- Oriented Programming). Case studies on a simple distribution network and on real Brazilian distribution systems are presented and discussed. © Copyright KTH 2006.

A performance-based method for seismic evaluation of masonry walls strengthened with RC layers

A conventional method for seismic strengthening of masonry walls is externally application of reinforced concrete layer (shotcrete). However, due to the lack of analytical and experimental information on the behavior of strengthened walls, the design procedures are usually followed based on the empirical relations. Using these design procedures have resulted in massive strengthening details in retrofitting projects. This paper presents a computational framework for nonlinear analysis of strengthened masonry walls and its versatility has been verified by comparing the numerical and experimental results. Based on the developed numerical model and available experimental information, design relations and failure modes are proposed for strengthened walls in accordance with the ASCE 41 standard. Finally, a sample masonry structure has been strengthened using the proposed and available conventional methods. It has been shown that using the proposed method results in lower strengthening details and appropriate (ductile) failure modes

Performance Based Specifications, TR-403, 1998

The goal in highway construction and operation has shifted from method based specifications to specifications relating desired performance attributes to materials, mix designs, and construction methods. Shifting from method specifications to performance based specifications can work as an incentive or disincentive for the contractor to improve performance or extend pavement life. This literature search was directed at a review of existing portland cement concrete performance specification development, and the criteria that can effectively measure pavement performance. The criteria identified in the literature include concrete strength, slab thickness, air content, initial smoothness, water-cement ratio, unit weight, and slump. A description of each criterion, along with the advantages, disadvantages, and test methods for each are identified. Also included are the results from a survey that was sent out to various state, federal, and trade agencies. The responses indicated that 53% currently use or are developing a performance based specification program. Of the 47% of agencies that do not use a performance based specification program, over 34% indicated that they would consider a similar program. The most commonly measured characteristics include thickness, strength, smoothness, and air content. Lastly recommendations and conclusions are made regarding other factors that affect pavement performance and a proposed second phase of the research is suggested. The research team suggests that a regional expert task group be formed to identify performance levels and criteria. The results of that effort will guide the research team in the development of new or revised specifications.

Financier’s credit risk: A Performance-Based Classification Model

The purpose of this study is to view credit risk from the financier’s point of view in a theoretical framework. Results and aspects of the previous studies regarding measuring credit risk with accounting based scoring models are also examined. The theoretical framework and previous studies are then used to support the empirical analysis which aims to develop a credit risk measure for a bank’s internal use or a risk management tool for a company to indicate its credit risk to the financier. The study covers a sample of Finnish companies from 12 different industries and four different company categories and employs their accounting information from 2004 to 2008. The empirical analysis consists of six stage methodology process which uses measures of profitability, liquidity, capital structure and cash flow to determine financier’s credit risk, define five significant risk classes and produce risk classification model. The study is confidential until 15.10.2012.

Risk under performance-based contracting in the UK construction sector

As a method of procuring the services of the built environment, performance-based contracting (PBC) seeks to link the building supplier to longer term commitments than has traditionally been the case in the construction sector. By rewarding the building producer according to the way that building or structure delivers the users' requirements, rather than according to a list of assembled parts, a number of additional risks are taken by contractors, including fitness for purpose, costs and briefing. The extent to which contractors recognize these risks and their methods of dealing with them vary considerably and are influenced by their attitudes towards risk. As the risks associated with PBC are seen as large, uninsurable, and vulnerable to changing client requirements, the majority of respondents would reject the use of PBC as a method of contracting. Nevertheless, PBC may be used under particular conditions, where rewards are deemed sufficient to compensate for the additional risk to the contractor of undertaking work on the basis of a stream of payments paid over the life of a structure depending on the satisfactory performance of the building or as part of a private finance initiative.

Ownership rights in performance-based contracting: A case study of English law

Clients and contractors need to be aware of the project’s legal environment because the viability of a procurement strategy can be vitiated by legal rules. This is particularly true regarding Performance-Based Contracting (PBC) whose viability may be threatened by rules of property law: while the PBC concept does not require that the contractor transfers the ownership in the building materials used to the client, the rules of property law often lead to an automatic transfer of ownership. But does the legal environment really render PBC unfeasible? In particular, is PBC unfeasible because contractors lose their materials as assets? These questions need to be answered with respect to the applicable property law. As a case study, English property law has been chosen. Under English law, the rule which governs the automatic transfer of ownership is called quicquid plantatur solo, solo credit (whatever is fixed to the soil belongs to the soil). An analysis of this rule reveals that not all materials which are affixed to land become part of the land. This fate only occurs in relation to materials which have been affixed with the intention of permanently improving the land. Five fictitious PBC cases have been considered in terms of the legal status of the materials involved, and several subsequent legal questions have been addressed. The results suggest that English law does actually threaten the feasibility of PBC in some cases. However, it is also shown that the law provides means to circumvent the unwanted results which flow from the rules of property law. In particular, contractors who are interested in keeping their materials as assets can insist on agreeing a property right in the client’s land, i.e. a contractor’s lien. Therefore, the outcome is that English property law does not render the implementation of the PBC concept unfeasible. At a broader level, the results contribute to the theoretical framework of PBC as an increasingly used procurement strategy.

Performance-based contracting in the construction sector

Construction procurement is complex and there is a very wide range of options available to procurers. Inappropriate choices about how to procure may limit practical opportunities for innovation. In particular, traditional approaches to construction procurement set up many obstacles for technology suppliers to provide innovative solutions. This is because they are often employed as sub-contractors simply to provide and install equipment to specifications developed before the point at which they become involved in a project. A research team at the University of Reading has developed a procurement framework that comprehensively defines the various options open to procurers in a more fine-grained way than has been known in the past. This enables informed decisions that can establish tailor-made procurement approaches that take into account the needs of specific clients. It enables risk and reward structures to be aligned so that contracts and payment mechanisms are aligned precisely with what a client seeks to achieve. This is not a “one-size-fits-all” approach. Rather, it is an approach that enables informed decisions about how to organize individual procurements that are appropriate to particular circumstances, acknowledging that they differ for each client and for each procurement exercise. Within this context, performance-based contracting (PBC) is explored in terms of the different ways in which technology suppliers within constructed facilities might be encouraged and rewarded for the kinds of innovation sought by the ultimate clients. Examples from various industry sectors are presented, from public sector and from private sector, with a commentary about what they sought to achieve and the extent to which they were successful. The lessons from these examples are presented in terms of feasibility in relation to financial issues, governance, economics, strategic issues, contractual issues and cash flow issues for clients and for contractors. Further background documents and more detailed readings are provided in an appendix for those who wish to find out more.

Performance-based compensation vs. guaranteed compensation: contractual incentives and performance

Top management from retail banks must delegate authority to lower-level managers to operate branches and service centers. Doing so, they must navigate through conflicts of interest, asymmetric information and limited monitoring in designing compensation plans for such agents. Pursuant to this delegation, the banks adopt a system of performance targets and incentives to align the interests of senior management and unit managers. This paper evaluates the causal relationship between performance-based salaries and managers’ effective performance. We use a fixed effects estimator to analyze an unbalanced panel of data from one of the largest Brazilian retail banks during the period from January 2007 to June 2009. The results indicate that agents with guaranteed variable salary contracts demonstrate inferior performance compared with agents who have performance-based compensation packages. We conclude that there is a moral hazard that can be observed in the behavior of agents who are subject to guaranteed variable salary contracts.