Determinants of credit risk in secured loans – Evidence from the auto loan industry

The purpose of this study is to examine attributes which have explanation power to the probability of default or serious overdue in secured auto loans. Another goal is to find out differences between defaulted loans and loans which have had payment difficulties but survived without defaulting. 19 independent variables used in this study reflect information available at the time of credit decision. These variables were tested with logistic regression and backward elimination procedure. The data includes 8931 auto loans from a Finnish finance company. 1118 of the contracts were taken by company customers and 7813 by private customers. 130 of the loans defaulted and 584 had serious payment problems but did not default. The maturities of those loans were from one month to 60 months and they have ended during year 2011. The LTV (loan-to-value) variable was ranked as the most significant explainer because of its strong positive relationship with probability of payment difficulties. Another important explainer in this study was the credit rating variable which got a negative relationship with payment problems. Also maturity and car age performed well having both a positive relationship with the probability of payment problems. When compared default and serious overdue situations, the most significant differences were found in the roles of LTV, Maturity and Gender variables.

Global governance, currency and trade: implications of one on the other, common problems and how to address cooperation through law at the international level

How to deal with the impacts of the exchange rate on the trade balance of Brazil? There is not a single answer to such question. In order to find out some legal approaches for this matter, this paper aims to describe and analyze the role of the IMF, WTO and the governments of Brazil and the United States on the currency misalignments, especially the extraterritorial effects of such misalignment on the Brazil’s bilateral trade with the United States. The article concludes that the Currency Swap Agreements and other bilateral solutions may minimize the distortions that the Brazilian balance of payment against the USA is carrying, due to the lack of legal solutions for the problem of the exchange rate misalignments that Brazil is facing.

A ship run aground Deepening problems in the Ukrainian economy. OSW Commentary Number 173, 16 June 2015

The drop in Ukraine’s GDP by nearly 18% in the first three months of 2015 (versus the corresponding period in 2014) has confirmed the decline of the country’s economy. Over the last 14 months, the Ukrainian currency was subject to an almost threefold devaluation against the US dollar, and in April 2015 the inflation rate was 61% (year-on-year), which exacerbated the impoverishment of the general public and weakened domestic demand. The main reason behind the crisis has been the destruction of heavy industry and infrastructure in the war-torn Donbas region, over which Kyiv no longer has control, as well as a sharp decline in foreign trade (by 24% in 2014 and by 34% in the first quarter of 2015), recorded primarily in trading volume with Ukraine’s major trade partner, i.e. Russia (a drop of 43%). The conflict has also had a negative impact on the production figures for the two key sectors of the Ukrainian economy: agriculture and metallurgy, which account for approximately 50% of Ukrainian exports. The government’s response to the crisis has primarily been a reduction in the costs of financing the Donbas and an increase in the financial burden placed on the citizens and companies of Ukraine. No radical reforms which would encompass the entire system, including anti-corruption reforms, have been carried out to stop the embezzlement of state funds and to facilitate business activity. The reasons for not initiating reforms have included the lack of will to launch them, Ukraine’s traditionally slow pace of bureaucratic action and growing dissonance among the parties making up the parliamentary coalition. The few positive changes, including marketisation of energy prices and sustaining budgetary discipline (in the first quarter of 2015, budgetary revenues grew by 25%, though partly as a result of currency devaluation), are being carried out under pressure from the International Monetary Fund, which is making the payment of further loan instalments to the tune of US$ 17.5 billion conditional upon reforms. Despite assistance granted by Western institutional donors and by individual states, the risk of Ukraine going bankrupt remains real. The issue of restructuring foreign debt worth US$ 15 billion has not been resolved, as foreign creditors who hold Ukrainian bonds have not consented to any partial cancellation of the debt. Whether Ukraine’s public finances can be stabilised will depend mainly on the situation in the east of the country and on the possible renewal of military action. It seems that the only way to rescue Ukraine’s public finances from deteriorating further is to continue to ‘freeze’ the conflict, to gradually implement wide-ranging reforms and to reach a consensus in negotiations with lenders.

Preliminary report on commission and bonus methods; the Committee for the Study of Wages Problems, Felix Vorenberg, chairman ...

Mode of access: Internet.

Conflicting expectations in transforming government service processes: the story of e-payment for social welfare in Ireland

Despite its clear potential and attractiveness as a solution to a broad range of societal problems, E-Government has not been adopted to levels predicted in early 2000 literature. Whilst case studies of punctual development of E-Government initiatives abound, few countries have progressed to high levels of maturity in the systematic use of ICT in the relationship between government and citizens. At the same time, the current period brings challenges in terms of access to public services and costs of delivering these services which make the large scale use of ICT by governments more attractive than ever, if not even a necessity. This paper presents a detailed case study of a specific E-Government initiative in Ireland in the area of E-payments for G2C, in the social welfare area. Locating the current initiative in its historical context, it analyses the varied motivations and conflicting requirements of the numerous stakeholders and discusses the constraints that bear on the potential scenarios that could be followed at this point in time.

Cash or non-cash: that is the question - the story of e-payment for social welfare in Ireland part 2

E-Government in its various forms and extensions, notably T-Government, is often presented as the panacea for resolving such complex social problems as social exclusion, lack of governance transparency, poor value for money and other ailments of modern societies. Yet, E-Government has not been adopted up to predicted levels. Many case studies investigating success factors, maturity models, and the application of acceptance models have been presented over the last 15 years, but a deep understanding of the potential impact and consequences of E-Government is still lacking. This is especially true for those initiatives that involve socio-economic and cultural contexts, which makes their evaluation and the prediction of their impact difficult. This paper reports on an on-going E-Government initiative in Ireland aimed at implementing E-payments for G2C, notably in the social welfare area. Three sets of personal surveys have been carried out to understand the perceived impact of governmental plans of moving from an almost fully cash-based payment system to a fully electronic based solution. Early results indicate that perceived pre-requisites for the planned change may be misleading. The impact on recipients’ lives cannot solely be measured in terms of economic gains: the consequences of such implementation may well reach further than expected.

Impact Of Pharmacist Interventions On Drug-related Problems And Laboratory Markers In Outpatients With Human Immunodeficiency Virus Infection.

Substantial complexity has been introduced into treatment regimens for patients with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection. Many drug-related problems (DRPs) are detected in these patients, such as low adherence, therapeutic inefficacy, and safety issues. We evaluated the impact of pharmacist interventions on CD4+ T-lymphocyte count, HIV viral load, and DRPs in patients with HIV infection. In this 18-month prospective controlled study, 90 outpatients were selected by convenience sampling from the Hospital Dia-University of Campinas Teaching Hospital (Brazil). Forty-five patients comprised the pharmacist intervention group and 45 the control group; all patients had HIV infection with or without acquired immunodeficiency syndrome. Pharmaceutical appointments were conducted based on the Pharmacotherapy Workup method, although DRPs and pharmacist intervention classifications were modified for applicability to institutional service limitations and research requirements. Pharmacist interventions were performed immediately after detection of DRPs. The main outcome measures were DRPs, CD4+ T-lymphocyte count, and HIV viral load. After pharmacist intervention, DRPs decreased from 5.2 (95% confidence interval [CI] =4.1-6.2) to 4.2 (95% CI =3.3-5.1) per patient (P=0.043). A total of 122 pharmacist interventions were proposed, with an average of 2.7 interventions per patient. All the pharmacist interventions were accepted by physicians, and among patients, the interventions were well accepted during the appointments, but compliance with the interventions was not measured. A statistically significant increase in CD4+ T-lymphocyte count in the intervention group was found (260.7 cells/mm(3) [95% CI =175.8-345.6] to 312.0 cells/mm(3) [95% CI =23.5-40.6], P=0.015), which was not observed in the control group. There was no statistical difference between the groups regarding HIV viral load. This study suggests that pharmacist interventions in patients with HIV infection can cause an increase in CD4+ T-lymphocyte counts and a decrease in DRPs, demonstrating the importance of an optimal pharmaceutical care plan.

Graded Meshes In Bio-thermal Problems With Transmission-line Modeling Method.

In this study, the transmission-line modeling (TLM) applied to bio-thermal problems was improved by incorporating several novel computational techniques, which include application of graded meshes which resulted in 9 times faster in computational time and uses only a fraction (16%) of the computational resources used by regular meshes in analyzing heat flow through heterogeneous media. Graded meshes, unlike regular meshes, allow heat sources to be modeled in all segments of the mesh. A new boundary condition that considers thermal properties and thus resulting in a more realistic modeling of complex problems is introduced. Also, a new way of calculating an error parameter is introduced. The calculated temperatures between nodes were compared against the results obtained from the literature and agreed within less than 1% difference. It is reasonable, therefore, to conclude that the improved TLM model described herein has great potential in heat transfer of biological systems.

[access To Information About How To Prevent Oral Problems Among School Children In The Public School Network].

The scope of this study is to identify the prevalence of access to information about how to prevent oral problems among schoolchildren in the public school network, as well as the factors associated with such access. This is a cross-sectional and analytical study conducted among 12-year-old schoolchildren in a Brazilian municipality with a large population. The examinations were performed by 24 trained dentists and calibrated with the aid of 24 recorders. Data collection occurred in 36 public schools selected from the 89 public schools of the city. Descriptive, univariate and multiple analyses were conducted. Of the 2510 schoolchildren included in the study, 2211 reported having received information about how to prevent oral problems. Access to such information was greater among those who used private dental services; and lower among those who used the service for treatment, who evaluated the service as regular or bad/awful. The latter use toothbrush only or toothbrush and tongue scrubbing as a means of oral hygiene and who reported not being satisfied with the appearance of their teeth. The conclusion drawn is that the majority of schoolchildren had access to information about how to prevent oral problems, though access was associated with the characteristics of health services, health behavior and outcomes.

Trends and strategies of ozone application in environmental problems

Efforts presented by the scientific community in recent years towards the development of numerous green chemical processes and wastewater treatment technologies are presented and discussed. In the light of these approaches, environmentally friendly technologies, as well as the key role played by the well-known advanced oxidation processes, are discussed, giving special attention to the ones comprising ozone applications. Fundamentals and applied aspects dealing with ozone technology and its application are also presented.

Imigrantes bolivianos em São Paulo : a Praça Kantuta e o futebol

Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física

Changes in parents' and self-reports of behavioral problems in Brazilian adolescents after behavioral treatment with urine alarm for nocturnal enuresis

PURPOSE: Compare parents' reports of youth problems (PRYP) with adolescent problems self-reports (APSR) pre/post behavioral treatment of nocturnal enuresis (NE) based on the use of a urine alarm. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Adolescents (N = 19) with mono-symptomatic (primary or secondary) nocturnal enuresis group treatment for 40 weeks. Discharge criterion was established as 8 weeks with consecutive dry nights. PRYP and APSR were scored by the Child Behavior Checklist (CBCL) and Youth Self-Report (YSR). RESULTS: Pre-treatment data: 1) Higher number of clinical cases based on parent report than on self-report for Internalizing Problems (IP) (13/19 vs. 4/19), Externalizing Problems (EP) (7/19 vs. 5/19) and Total Problem (TP) (11/19 vs. 5/19); 2) Mean PRYP scores for IP (60.8) and TP (61) were within the deviant range (T score ≥ 60); while mean PRYP scores for EP (57.4) and mean APSR scores (IP = 52.4, EP = 49.5, TP = 52.4) were within the normal range. Difference between PRYP' and APSR' scores was significant. Post treatment data: 1) Discharge for majority of the participants (16/19); 2) Reduction in the number of clinical cases on parental evaluation: 9/19 adolescents remained within clinical range for IP, 2/19 for EP, and 7/19 for TP. 3) All post-treatment mean scores were within the normal range; the difference between pre and post evaluation scores was significant for PRYP. CONCLUSIONS: The behavioral treatment based on the use of urine alarm is effective for adolescents with mono-symptomatic (primary and secondary) nocturnal enuresis. The study favors the hypothesis that enuresis is a cause, not a consequence, of other behavioral problems.

Combining Legendre's Polynomials and Genetic Algorithm in the Solution of Nonlinear Initial-Value Problems

This work develops a method for solving ordinary differential equations, that is, initial-value problems, with solutions approximated by using Legendre's polynomials. An iterative procedure for the adjustment of the polynomial coefficients is developed, based on the genetic algorithm. This procedure is applied to several examples providing comparisons between its results and the best polynomial fitting when numerical solutions by the traditional Runge-Kutta or Adams methods are available. The resulting algorithm provides reliable solutions even if the numerical solutions are not available, that is, when the mass matrix is singular or the equation produces unstable running processes.

Social interaction as a heuristic for combinatorial optimization problems

We investigate the performance of a variant of Axelrod's model for dissemination of culture-the Adaptive Culture Heuristic (ACH)-on solving an NP-Complete optimization problem, namely, the classification of binary input patterns of size F by a Boolean Binary Perceptron. In this heuristic, N agents, characterized by binary strings of length F which represent possible solutions to the optimization problem, are fixed at the sites of a square lattice and interact with their nearest neighbors only. The interactions are such that the agents' strings (or cultures) become more similar to the low-cost strings of their neighbors resulting in the dissemination of these strings across the lattice. Eventually the dynamics freezes into a homogeneous absorbing configuration in which all agents exhibit identical solutions to the optimization problem. We find through extensive simulations that the probability of finding the optimal solution is a function of the reduced variable F/N(1/4) so that the number of agents must increase with the fourth power of the problem size, N proportional to F(4), to guarantee a fixed probability of success. In this case, we find that the relaxation time to reach an absorbing configuration scales with F(6) which can be interpreted as the overall computational cost of the ACH to find an optimal set of weights for a Boolean binary perceptron, given a fixed probability of success.