Novel Panel Cointegration Tests Emending for Cross-Section Dependence with N Fixed

In this paper, we propose new cointegration tests for single equations and panels. Inboth cases, the asymptotic distributions of the tests, which are derived with N fixed andT → ∞, are shown to be standard normals. The effects of serial correlation and crosssectionaldependence are mopped out via long-run variances. An effective bias correctionis derived which is shown to work well in finite samples; particularly when N is smallerthan T. Our panel tests are robust to possible cointegration across units.

Human capital and innovation: evidence from panel cointegration tests

Panel cointegration techniques applied to pooled data for 27 economies for the period 1960-2000 indicate that: i) government spending in education and innovation indicators are cointegrated; ii) education hierarchy is relevant when explaining innovation; and iii) the relation between education and innovation can be obtained after an accommodation of a level structural break.

CO2 Emissions, GDP and trade : a panel cointegration approach

This paper examines the relationships among per capita CO2 emissions, per capita GDP and international trade based on panel data sets spanning the period 1960-2008: one for 150 countries and the others for sub-samples comprising OECD and Non-OECD economies. We apply panel unit root and cointegration tests, and estimate a panel error correction model. The results from the error correction model suggest that there are long-term relationships between the variables for the whole sample and for Non-OECD countries. Finally, Granger causality tests show that there is bi-directional short-term causality between per capita GDP and international trade for the whole sample and between per capita GDP and CO2 emissions for OECD countries

Panel Cointegration of Chinese A and B Shares

This paper uses panel unit root and cointegration methods to test the stationarity of the premium on domestic investors’ A shares over foreign investors’ B shares and cointegration between the A and B share prices on the Chinese stock exchanges. We find that the A share price premium is nonstationary until 2001, when the A and B share markets were partially merged, and that the A and B share prices are cointegrated in the panel.Cointegration is more likely to be found for firms in the service sector and for firms that issued B shares recently.

ARE OECD MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES TREND STATIONARY? EVIDENCE FROM PANEL STATIONARITY TESTS ALLOWING FOR A STRUCTURAL BREAK AND CROSS-SECTIONAL DEPENDENCE

This article applies the panel stationarity test with a break proposed by Hadri and Rao (2008) to examine whether 14 macroeconomic variables of OECD countries can be best represented as random walk or stationary fluctuations around a deterministic trend. In contrast to previous studies, based essentially on visual inspection of the break type or just applying the most general break model, we use a model selection procedure based on BIC. We do this for each time series so that heterogeneous break models are allowed for in the panel. Our results suggest, overwhelmingly, that if we account for a structural break, cross-sectional dependence and choose the break models to be congruent with the data, then the null of stationarity cannot be rejected for all the 14 macroeconomic variables examined in this article. This is in sharp contrast with the results obtained by Hurlin (2004), using the same data but a different methodology.

Explaining economic growth in developed economies after 1980

We use the Aguion and Howitt (2009) theoretical model of endogenous economic growth to explain the declining economic growth in developed economies in the period 1981-2009. Aguion and Howitt theoretical framework combines Solownian and Schumpeterian elements in a single scenario, so that labor-augmenting technological progress and capital accumulation per efficiency unit of labor are both caused not only by exogenous changes in the investment rate but also by shocks to the degree of efficiency in the Research and Development (R&D) expenditure process. Empirical results revealed that per worker output growth rates and capital stock per efficiency unit of labor growth rates both have a common panel unit root. Since the panel cointegration tests and estimates revealed a statistical significant negative long-run relationship between per worker output growth rate and capital stock per efficiency unit of labor, the interpretation of the econometric results analized from the Aguion and Howitt ́s theoretical perspective is that labor-augmenting technological progress is endogenously falling over time mainly because of an exogenous deterioration of the environment conditions for the transformation of the investment rate and R&D expenditures in technological progress.

Sostenibilidad fiscal: una aproximación con datos panel para 8 países Latinoaméricanos

Este documento examina la hipótesis de sostenibilidad fiscal para 8 países de Latinoamérica. A partir de un modelo de datos panel, se determina si los ingresos y gasto primario de los Gobiernos entre 1960 - 2009 están cointegrados, es decir, si son sostenibles a largo plazo. Para esto, se utilizaron pruebas de raíz unitaria y cointegración de segunda generación con datos panel macroeconómicos, lo que permite tener en cuenta la dependencia cruzada entre los países, así como los posibles quiebres estructurales en la relación que estén determinados de manera endógena; en particular, se usan la prueba de estacionariedad de Hadri y Rao (2008) y la prueba de cointegración de Westerlund (2006). Como resultado del análisis se encontró evidencia empírica de que en el período bajo estudio el déficit primario en los 8 países latinoamericanos es sostenible pero en sentido débil.

Using a panel structure to discuss the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle in developing countries

The purpose of this paper is to test the implications of current account solvency for the savinginvestment correlation in developing countries. Since solvency is a long-run phenomenon, and given that the power of the standard unit root and cointegration tests is low, we exploit the panel structure of the sample of 29 developing countries. We find evidence that saving and investment are cointegrated and that the current account is stationary. Therefore, the Feldstein-Horioka correlations are not a puzzle in the sense they reflect the intertemporal budget constraint. The same results are obtained for different subsamples (Africa, Asia, and Latin America) and for different periods of time (1960-74 and 1975-96). We, then, suggest that an error correction model should distinguish between the long-run correlation, which reflects the solvency condition, and the short-run correlation, which could measure capital mobility.

Energy consumption, economic growth and prices: A reassessment using panel VECM for developed and developing countries

This paper reinvestigates the energy consumption-GDP growth nexus in a panel error correction model using data on 20 net energy importers and exporters from 1971 to 2002. Among the energy exporters, there was bidirectional causality between economic growth and energy consumption in the developed countries in both the short and long run, while in the developing countries energy consumption stimulates growth only in the short run. The former result is also found for energy importers and the latter result exists only for the developed countries within this category. In addition, compared to the developing countries, the developed countries' elasticity response in terms of economic growth from an increase in energy consumption is larger although its income elasticity is lower and less than unitary. Lastly. the implications for energy policy calling for a more holistic approach are discussed. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Long-term relationship between energy consumption and GDP in Latin America: an empirical assessment using panel data

The main objetive of this research is to evaluate the long term relationship between energy consumption and GDP for some Latin American countries in the period 1980-2009 -- The estimation has been done through the non-stationary panel approach, using the production function in order to control other sources of GDP variation, such as capital and labor -- In addition to this, a panel unit root tests are used in order to identify the non-stationarity of these variables, followed by the application of panel cointegration test proposed by Pedroni (2004) to avoid a spurious regression (Entorf, 1997; Kao, 1999)

A DYNAMIC FRAMEWORK FOR THE RELATIONS BETWEEN FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES, SAVINGS AND INVESTMENTS

The Meese-Rogoff forecasting puzzle states that foreign exchange (FX) rates are unpredictable. Since one country’s macroeconomic conditions could affect the price of its national currency, we study the dynamic relations between the FX rates and some macroeconomic accounts. Our research tests whether the predictability of the FX rates could be improved through the advanced econometrics. Improving the predictability of the FX rates has important implications for various groups including investors, business entities and the government. The present thesis examines the dynamic relations between the FX rates, savings and investments for a sample of 25 countries from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. We apply quarterly data of FX rates, macroeconomic indices and accounts including the savings and the investments over three decades. Through preliminary Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root tests and Johansen cointegration tests, we found that the savings rate and the investment rate are cointegrated with the vector (1,-1). This result is consistent with many previous studies on the savings-investment relations and therefore confirms the validity of the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle. Because of the special cointegrating relation between the savings rate and investment rate, we introduce the savings-investment rate differential (SID). Investigating each country through a vector autoregression (VAR) model, we observe extremely insignificant coefficient estimates of the historical SIDs upon the present FX rates. We also report similar findings through the panel VAR approach. We thus conclude that the historical SIDs are useless in forecasting the FX rate. Nonetheless, the coefficients of the past FX rates upon the current SIDs for both the country-specific and the panel VAR models are statistically significant. Therefore, we conclude that the historical FX rates can conversely predict the SID to some degree. Specifically, depreciation in the domestic currency would cause the increase in the SID.

An Autoregressive Spectral Density Estimator at Frequency Zero for Nonstationarity Tests.

Many unit root and cointegration tests require an estimate of the spectral density function at frequency zero at some process. Kernel estimators based on weighted sums of autocovariances constructed using estimated residuals from an AR(1) regression are commonly used. However, it is known that with substantially correlated errors, the OLS estimate of the AR(1) parameter is severely biased. in this paper, we first show that this least squares bias induces a significant increase in the bias and mean-squared error of kernel-based estimators.

Seasonal adjustment and cointegration

El documento examina el efecto de filtros de ajuste en el tamaño y poder de prueba de cointegración que usan los residuales como pruebas ADF y PP, mediante procedimientos MonteCarlo y una aplicación empírica. Nuestros resultados indican que el uso de filtros distorsiona el tamaño y reduce el poder de estas pruebas.

The case for property in the long run: a cointegration test

The benefits of property in the mixed asset portfolio has been the subject of a number of studies both in the UK and around the world. The traditional way of investigating this issue is to use MPT with the results suggesting that Property should play a significant role in the mixed asset portfolio. These results are not without criticism and generally revolve around quality and quantity of the property data series. To overcome these deficiencies this paper uses cointegration methodology which examines the longer term time series behaviour of various asset markets using a very long run desmoothed data series. Using a number of different cointegration tests, both pair-wise and multivariate, the results show, in unambiguous terms, that there is no contemporous cointegration between the major asset classes Property, Equities and Bonds. The implications of which are that Property does indeed have a risk reducing place to play in the long-run strategic mixed-asset portfolio. A result of particular relevance to institutions such as pension funds and life insurance companies who would wish to hold investments for the long-term.