Climatic records over the past 30 ka from temperate Australia – a synthesis from the Oz-INTIMATE workgroup

Temperate Australia sits between the heat engine of the tropics and the cold Southern Ocean, encompassing a range of rainfall regimes and falling under the influence of different climatic drivers. Despite this heterogeneity, broad-scale trends in climatic and environmental change are evident over the past 30 ka. During the early glacial period (∼30–22 ka) and the Last Glacial Maximum (∼22–18 ka), climate was relatively cool across the entire temperate zone and there was an expansion of grasslands and increased fluvial activity in regionally important Murray–Darling Basin. The temperate region at this time appears to be dominated by expanded sea ice in the Southern Ocean forcing a northerly shift in the position of the oceanic fronts and a concomitant influx of cold water along the southeast (including Tasmania) and southwest Australian coasts. The deglacial period (∼18–12 ka) was characterised by glacial recession and eventual disappearance resulting from an increase in temperature deduced from terrestrial records, while there is some evidence for climatic reversals (e.g. the Antarctic Cold Reversal) in high resolution marine sediment cores through this period. The high spatial density of Holocene terrestrial records reveals an overall expansion of sclerophyll woodland and rainforest taxa across the temperate region after ∼12 ka, presumably in response to increasing temperature, while hydrological records reveal spatially heterogeneous hydro-climatic trends. Patterns after ∼6 ka suggest higher frequency climatic variability that possibly reflects the onset of large scale climate variability caused by the El Niño/Southern Oscillation.

Late Quaternary vegetation history of North Stradbroke Island, Queensland, eastern Australia

Currently there is a paucity of records of late Quaternary palaeoenvironmental variability available from the subtropics of Australia. The three continuous palaeoecological records presented here, from North Stradbroke Island, subtropical Queensland, assist in bridging this large spatial gap in the current state of knowledge. The dominance of arboreal taxa in the pollen records throughout the past >40,000 years is in contrast with the majority of records from temperate Australia, and indicates a positive moisture balance for North Stradbroke Island. The charcoal records show considerable inter-site variability indicating the importance of local-scale events on individual records, and highlighting the caution that needs to be applied when interpreting a single site as a regional record. The variability in the burning regimes is interpreted as being influenced by both climatic and human factors. Despite this inter-site variability, broad environmental trends are identifiable, with changes in the three records comparable with the OZ-INTIMATE climate synthesis for the last 35,000 years.

Age determination, sedimentological, biogeochemical, and plant macrofossils analyses of outcrop PG2038-1

Thermokarst lakes are a widespread feature of the Arctic tundra, in which highly dynamic processes are closely connected with current and past climate changes. We investigated late Quaternary sediment dynamics, basin and shoreline evolution, and environmental interrelations of Lake El'gene-Kyuele in the NE Siberian Arctic (latitude 71°17'N, longitude 125°34'E). The water-body displays thaw-lake characteristics cutting into both Pleistocene Ice Complex and Holocene alas sediments. Our methods are based on grain size distribution, mineralogical composition, TOC/N ratio, stable carbon isotopes and the analysis of plant macrofossils from a 3.5-m sediment profile at the modern eastern lake shore. Our results show two main sources for sediments in the lake basin: terrigenous diamicton supplied from thermokarst slopes and the lake shore, and lacustrine detritus that has mainly settled in the deep lake basin. The lake and its adjacent thermokarst basin rapidly expanded during the early Holocene. This climatically warmer than today period was characterized by forest or forest tundra vegetation composed of larches, birch trees and shrubs. Woodlands of both the HTM and the Late Pleistocene were affected by fire, which potentially triggered the initiation of thermokarst processes resulting later in lake formation and expansion. The maximum lake depth at the study site and the lowest limnic bioproductivity occurred during the longest time interval of ~7 ka starting in the Holocene Thermal Maximum and lasting throughout the progressively cooler Neoglacial, whereas partial drainage and an extensive shift of the lake shoreline occurred ~0.9 cal. ka BP. Correspondingly, this study discusses different climatic and environmental drivers for the dynamics of a thermokarst basin.

Paleoclimate investiations on sediment core PG1984 from Lake Sysy-Kyuele, northern Siberia

In northeastern Siberia, Russia, a 1.2 m sediment core was retrieved and radiocarbon dated from a small and shallow lake located at the western side of the lower Lena River (N 69°24', E 123°50', 81 m a.s.l.). The objective of this paper is to reconstruct the palaeoenvironmental variability and to infer major palaeoclimate trends that have occurred since ~ 13.3 cal. kyrs BP. We analysed the diatom assemblages, sedimentology (grain size, total organic carbon (TOC), total nitrogen (TN)), and the elemental and mineralogical composition using X-ray fluorescence (XRF) and X-ray diffractometry (XRD) of the sediment core. Our results show parallel changes in the diatom species composition and sediment characteristics. Enhanced minerogenic sediment input and the occurrence of pyrite is indicative of a cold period between ~ 12.7-11.6 cal. kyrs BP. The diatom data enable a qualitative inference about the local ecological conditions to be made, and reveal an oligotrophic lake system with alkaline and cold conditions during the earliest Holocene. Moderately warmer climates are inferred for the period from ~ 9.1 to 5.7 cal. kyrs BP. The major shift in the diatom assemblage, from dominance of small benthic fragilarioid taxa to a more complex diatom flora with an influx of several achnanthoid and naviculoid diatom species, occurred after a transitional period of about 1400 years (7.1 to 5.7 cal. kyrs BP) at ~ 5.7 cal. kyrs BP, indicating a circumneutral and warmer hydrological regime during the Holocene thermal maximum (HTM). Diatom valve concentrations declined starting ~ 2.8 cal. kyrs BP, but have been rising again since less than or equalt to 600 cal. years BP. This has occurred in parallel to the increased presence of acidophilous diatom taxa (e.g. Eunotia spp.) and decreased presence of small benthic fragilarioid species in the most recent sediments, which is interpreted as the result of neoglacial cooling and subsequent recent climate warming. Our findings are compared to other lake-inferred climate reconstructions along the Lena River. We conclude that the timing and spatial variability of the HTM in the lower Lena River area reveal a temporal delay from north to south.

Spatial and temporal variability in midge (Nematocera) assemblages in shallow Finnish lakes (60−70 °N) : community-based modelling of past environmental change

Multi- and intralake datasets of fossil midge assemblages in surface sediments of small shallow lakes in Finland were studied to determine the most important environmental factors explaining trends in midge distribution and abundance. The aim was to develop palaeoenvironmental calibration models for the most important environmental variables for the purpose of reconstructing past environmental conditions. The developed models were applied to three high-resolution fossil midge stratigraphies from southern and eastern Finland to interpret environmental variability over the past 2000 years, with special focus on the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), the Little Ice Age (LIA) and recent anthropogenic changes. The midge-based results were compared with physical properties of the sediment, historical evidence and environmental reconstructions based on diatoms (Bacillariophyta), cladocerans (Crustacea: Cladocera) and tree rings. The results showed that the most important environmental factor controlling midge distribution and abundance along a latitudinal gradient in Finland was the mean July air temperature (TJul). However, when the dataset was environmentally screened to include only pristine lakes, water depth at the sampling site became more important. Furthermore, when the dataset was geographically scaled to southern Finland, hypolimnetic oxygen conditions became the dominant environmental factor. The results from an intralake dataset from eastern Finland showed that the most important environmental factors controlling midge distribution within a lake basin were river contribution, water depth and submerged vegetation patterns. In addition, the results of the intralake dataset showed that the fossil midge assemblages represent fauna that lived in close proximity to the sampling sites, thus enabling the exploration of within-lake gradients in midge assemblages. Importantly, this within-lake heterogeneity in midge assemblages may have effects on midge-based temperature estimations, because samples taken from the deepest point of a lake basin may infer considerably colder temperatures than expected, as shown by the present test results. Therefore, it is suggested here that the samples in fossil midge studies involving shallow boreal lakes should be taken from the sublittoral, where the assemblages are most representative of the whole lake fauna. Transfer functions between midge assemblages and the environmental forcing factors that were significantly related with the assemblages, including mean air TJul, water depth, hypolimnetic oxygen, stream flow and distance to littoral vegetation, were developed using weighted averaging (WA) and weighted averaging-partial least squares (WA-PLS) techniques, which outperformed all the other tested numerical approaches. Application of the models in downcore studies showed mostly consistent trends. Based on the present results, which agreed with previous studies and historical evidence, the Medieval Climate Anomaly between ca. 800 and 1300 AD in eastern Finland was characterized by warm temperature conditions and dry summers, but probably humid winters. The Little Ice Age (LIA) prevailed in southern Finland from ca. 1550 to 1850 AD, with the coldest conditions occurring at ca. 1700 AD, whereas in eastern Finland the cold conditions prevailed over a longer time period, from ca. 1300 until 1900 AD. The recent climatic warming was clearly represented in all of the temperature reconstructions. In the terms of long-term climatology, the present results provide support for the concept that the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index has a positive correlation with winter precipitation and annual temperature and a negative correlation with summer precipitation in eastern Finland. In general, the results indicate a relatively warm climate with dry summers but snowy winters during the MCA and a cool climate with rainy summers and dry winters during the LIA. The results of the present reconstructions and the forthcoming applications of the models can be used in assessments of long-term environmental dynamics to refine the understanding of past environmental reference conditions and natural variability required by environmental scientists, ecologists and policy makers to make decisions concerning the presently occurring global, regional and local changes. The developed midge-based models for temperature, hypolimnetic oxygen, water depth, littoral vegetation shift and stream flow, presented in this thesis, are open for scientific use on request.

Lake Kumphawapi – an archive of Holocene palaeoenvironmental and palaeoclimatic changes in northeast Thailand

The long-term climatic and environmental history of Southeast Asia, and of Thailand in particular, is still fragmentary. Here we present a new 14C-dated, multi-proxy sediment record (TOC, C/N, CNS isotopes, Si, Zr, K, Ti, Rb, Ca elemental data, biogenic silica) for Lake Kumphawapi, the second largest natural lake in northeast Thailand. The data set provides a reconstruction of changes in lake status, groundwater fluctuations, and catchment run-off during the Holocene. A comparison of multiple sediment sequences and their proxies suggests that the summer monsoon was stronger between c. 9800 and 7000 cal yr BP. Lake status and water level changes around 7000 cal yr BP signify a shift to lower effective moisture. By c. 6500 cal yr BP parts of the lake had been transformed into a peatland, while areas of shallow water still occupied the deeper part of the basin until c. 5400–5200 cal yr BP. The driest interval in Kumphawapi's history occurred between c. 5200 and 3200 cal yr BP, when peat extended over large parts of the basin. After 3200 cal yr BP, the deepest part of the lake again turned into a wetland, which existed until c. 1600 cal yr BP. The observed lake-level rise after 1600 cal yr BP could have been caused by higher moisture availability, although increased human influence in the catchment cannot be ruled out. The present study highlights the use of multiple sediment sequences and proxies to study large lakes, such as Lake Kumphawapi in order to correctly assess the time transgressive response to past changes in hydroclimate conditions. Our new data set from northeast Thailand adds important palaeoclimatic information for a region in Southeast Asia and allows discussing Holocene monsoon variability and ITCZ movement in greater detail.

Climatic variability during the last interglacial inferred from geochemical proxies in the Lake El'gygytgyn sediment record

The Last Interglacial Period (LIP) is often regarded as a good analogue for potential climatic conditions under predicted global warming scenarios. Despite this, there is still debate over the nature, duration and frequency of climatic changes during this period. One particularly contentious issue has been the apparent evidence of climatic instability identified in many marine cores but seemingly lacking from many terrestrial archives, especially within the Arctic, a key region for global climate change research. In this paper, geochemical records from Lake El'gygytgyn, north-eastern Russia, are used to infer past climatic changes during the LIP from within the high Arctic. With a sampling resolution of ~20–~90 years, these records offer the potential for detailed, high-resolution palaeoclimate reconstruction. This study shows that the LIP commenced in central Chukotka ~129 thousand years ago (ka), with the warmest climatic conditions occurring between ~128 and 127 ka before being interrupted by a short-lived cold reversal. Mild climatic conditions then persisted until ~122 ka when a marked reduction in the sedimentation rate suggests a decrease in precipitation. A further climatic deterioration at ~118 ka marks the return to glacial conditions. This study highlights the value of incorporating several geochemical proxies when inferring past climatic conditions, thus providing the potential to identify signals related to environmental change within the catchment. We also demonstrate the importance of considering how changes in sedimentation rate influence proxy records, in order to develop robust palaeoenvironmental reconstructions.

Speleothem master chronologies: combined Holocene O-18 and C-13 records from the North Island of New Zealand and their palaeoenvironmental interpretation

The stable isotope records of four stalagmites dated by 19 TIMS uranium series ages are combined to produce master chronologies for delta(18)O and delta(13)C The delta(18)O records display good overall coherence, but considerable variation in detail. Variability in the delta(13)C records is greater, but general trends can still be discerned. This implies that too fine an interpretation of the structure of individual isotopic records can be unreliable. Speleothem delta(18)O values are demonstrated to show a positive relationship with temperature by comparing trends with other proxy records, but also to respond negatively to rainfall amount. Speleothem delta(13)C is considered to be most influenced by rainfall. The postglacial thermal optimum occur-red around 10.8 ka BP, which is similar in timing to Antarctica but up to 2000 years earlier than most Northern Hemisphere sites. Increasingly negative delta(18)O values after 7.5 ka BP indicate that temperatures declined to a late mid-Holocene minimum centred around 3 ka BP, but more positive values followed to mark a warm peak about 750 years ago which coincided with the 'Mediaeval Warm Period' of Europe. Low 5110 values at 325 years BP suggest cooling coincident with the 'Little Ice Age'. A marked feature of the delta(13)C record is an asymmetric periodicity averaging c. 2250 years and amplitude of c. 1.9parts per thousand. It is concluded that this is mainly driven by waterbalance variations with negative swings representing particularly wet intervals. The 5110 record shows a higher-frequency cyclicity with a period of c. 500 years and an amplitude of c. 0.25 parts per thousand. This is most likely to be temperature-driven, but some swings may have been amplified by precipitation.

Weather variability, tides, and Barmah Forest Virus Disease in the Gladstone region, Australia

In this study we examined the impact of weather variability and tides on the transmission of Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease and developed a weather-based forecasting model for BFV disease in the Gladstone region, Australia. We used seasonal autoregressive integrated moving-average (SARIMA) models to determine the contribution of weather variables to BFV transmission after the time-series data of response and explanatory variables were made stationary through seasonal differencing. We obtained data on the monthly counts of BFV cases, weather variables (e.g., mean minimum and maximum temperature, total rainfall, and mean relative humidity), high and low tides, and the population size in the Gladstone region between January 1992 and December 2001 from the Queensland Department of Health, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Queensland Department of Transport, and Australian Bureau of Statistics, respectively. The SARIMA model shows that the 5-month moving average of minimum temperature (β = 0.15, p-value < 0.001) was statistically significantly and positively associated with BFV disease, whereas high tide in the current month (β = −1.03, p-value = 0.04) was statistically significantly and inversely associated with it. However, no significant association was found for other variables. These results may be applied to forecast the occurrence of BFV disease and to use public health resources in BFV control and prevention.

On analysing and interpreting variability in motor output

A recent article in the Journal of Science and Medicine in Sport by Chapman et al.1 reported data from an empirical investigation comparing lower extremity joint motions, joint coordination and muscle recruitment in expert and novice cyclists. 3D kinematic and intramuscular electromyographic (EMG) analyses revealed no differences between expert and novice cyclists for normalised joint angles and velocities of the pelvis, hip, knee and ankle. However, significant differences in the strength of sagittal plane kinematics for hip–ankle and knee–ankle joint couplings were reported, with expert cyclists displaying tighter coupling relationships than novice cyclists. Furthermore, significant differences between expert and novice cyclists for all muscle recruitment parameters, except timing of peak EMG amplitude, were also reported.