Using palaeo-climate comparisons to constrain future projections in CMIP5

We present a selection of methodologies for using the palaeo-climate model component of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (Phase 5) (CMIP5) to attempt to constrain future climate projections using the same models. The constraints arise from measures of skill in hindcasting palaeo-climate changes from the present over three periods: the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) (21 000 yr before present, ka), the mid-Holocene (MH) (6 ka) and the Last Millennium (LM) (850–1850 CE). The skill measures may be used to validate robust patterns of climate change across scenarios or to distinguish between models that have differing outcomes in future scenarios. We find that the multi-model ensemble of palaeo-simulations is adequate for addressing at least some of these issues. For example, selected benchmarks for the LGM and MH are correlated to the rank of future projections of precipitation/temperature or sea ice extent to indicate that models that produce the best agreement with palaeo-climate information give demonstrably different future results than the rest of the models. We also explore cases where comparisons are strongly dependent on uncertain forcing time series or show important non-stationarity, making direct inferences for the future problematic. Overall, we demonstrate that there is a strong potential for the palaeo-climate simulations to help inform the future projections and urge all the modelling groups to complete this subset of the CMIP5 runs.

A mechanism of internal decadal atlantic ocean variability in a high-resolution coupled climate model

The North Atlantic Ocean subpolar gyre (NA SPG) is an important region for initialising decadal climate forecasts. Climate model simulations and palaeo climate reconstructions have indicated that this region could also exhibit large, internally generated variability on decadal timescales. Understanding these modes of variability, their consistency across models, and the conditions in which they exist, is clearly important for improving the skill of decadal predictions — particularly when these predictions are made with the same underlying climate models. Here we describe and analyse a mode of internal variability in the NA SPG in a state-of-the-art, high resolution, coupled climate model. This mode has a period of 17 years and explains 15–30% of the annual variance in related ocean indices. It arises due to the advection of heat content anomalies around the NA SPG. Anomalous circulation drives the variability in the southern half of the NA SPG, whilst mean circulation and anomalous temperatures are important in the northern half. A negative feedback between Labrador Sea temperatures/densities and those in the North Atlantic Current is identified, which allows for the phase reversal. The atmosphere is found to act as a positive feedback on to this mode via the North Atlantic Oscillation which itself exhibits a spectral peak at 17 years. Decadal ocean density changes associated with this mode are driven by variations in temperature, rather than salinity — a point which models often disagree on and which we suggest may affect the veracity of the underlying assumptions of anomaly-assimilating decadal prediction methodologies.

Climate variability of the last 1000 years in the NW Pacific: high resolution, multi-biomarker records from Lake Toyoni

The East Asian Monsoon (EAM) is an active component of the global climate system and has a profound social and economic impact in East Asia and its surrounding countries. Its impact on regional hydrological processes may influence society through industrial water supplies, food productivity and energy use. In order to predict future rates of climate change, reliable and accurate reconstructions of regional temperature and rainfall are required from all over the world to test climate models and better predict future climate variability. Hokkaido is a region which has limited palaeo-climate data and is sensitive to climate change. Instrumental data show that the climate in Hokkaido is influenced by the East Asian Monsoon (EAM), however, instrumental data is limited to the past ~150 years. Therefore down-core climate reconstructions, prior to instrumental records, are required to provide a better understanding of the long-term behaviour of the climate drivers (e.g. the EAM, Westerlies, and teleconnections) in this region. The present study develops multi-proxy reconstructions to determine past climatic and hydrologic variability in Japan over the past 1000 years and aid in understanding the effects of the EAM and the Westerlies independently and interactively. A 250-cm long sediment core from Lake Toyoni, Hokkaido was retrieved to investigate terrestrial and aquatic input, lake temperature and hydrological changes over the past 1000-years within Lake Toyoni and its catchment using X-Ray Fluorescence (XRF) data, alkenone palaeothermometry, the molecular and hydrogen isotopic composition of higher plant waxes (δD(HPW)). Here, we conducted the first survey for alkenone biomarkers in eight lakes in the Hokkaido, Japan. We detected the occurrence of alkenones within the sediments of Lake Toyoni. We present the first lacustrine alkenone record from Japan, including genetic analysis of the alkenone producer. C37 alkenone concentrations in surface sediments are 18µg C37 g−1 of dry sediment and the dominant alkenone is C37:4. 18S rDNA analysis revealed the presence of a single alkenone producer in Lake Toyoni and thus a single calibration is used for reconstructing lake temperature based on alkenone unsaturation patterns. Temperature reconstructions over the past 1000 years suggest that lake water temperatures varies between 8 and 19°C which is in line with water temperature changes observed in the modern Lake Toyoni. The alkenone-based temperature reconstruction provides evidence for the variability of the EAM over the past 1000 years. The δD(HPW) suggest that the large fluctuations (∼40‰) represent changes in temperature and source precipitation in this region, which is ultimately controlled by the EAM system and therefore a proxy for the EAM system. In order to complement the biomarker reconstructions, the XRF data strengthen the lake temperature and hydrological reconstructions by providing information on past productivity, which is controlled by the East Asian Summer monsoon (EASM) and wind input into Lake Toyoni, which is controlled by the East Asian Winter Monsoon (EAWM) and the Westerlies. By combining the data generated from XRF, alkenone palaeothermometry and the δD(HPW) reconstructions, we provide valuable information on the EAM and the Westerlies, including; the timing of intensification and weakening, the teleconnections influencing them and the relationship between them. During the Medieval Warm Period (MWP), we find that the EASM dominated and the EAWM was suppressed, whereas, during the Little Ice Age (LIA), the influence of the EAWM dominated with time periods of increased EASM and Westerlies intensification. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) significantly influenced the EAM; a strong EASM occurred during El Niño conditions and a strong EAWM occurred during La Niña. The North Atlantic Oscillation, on the other hand, was a key driver of the Westerlies intensification; strengthening of the Westerlies during a positive NAO phase and weakening of the Westerlies during a negative NAO phase. A key finding from this study is that our data support an anti-phase relationship between the EASM and the EAWM (e.g. the intensification of the EASM and weakening of the EAWM and vice versa) and that the EAWM and the Westerlies vary independently from each other, rather than coincide as previously suggested in other studies.

扬子地区上奥陶－下志留统黑色岩系形成机理

The black rock series of the Upper Ordovician - Lower Silurian in Yangtze area are important source rocks and have exceptional characteristics of sediment, biology, element geochemistry, carbon and oxygen isotope, organic geochemistry and etc. These characteristics are the reflection of important geology events. Due to scarce system research, many problems that relate to the development mechanism of source rocks are not solved. And this restricts the exploration of Oil and gas in South China. In this paper, author studied the palaeo-climate, palaeo-structure and palaeo-environment of the Upper Ordovician - Lower Silurian in Yangtze area by sedimentology, palaeobiology and geochemistry, especially the element geochemistry and isotope geochemistry. The environment model of source rocks is established and some conclusions are drawn. The Upper Ordovician - Lower Silurian sediment types in Yangtze area are mostly black shales, next, mudstone, shell limestone and siltystone. During the Late Ordovician and Earily Silurian periods, a series of big upheaval and depressed are distributed in Yangtze area, and the strata pattern of interphase upheaval and depressed led to Yangtze palaeosea isolated with outside sea. So the stagnant and anoxic environment that are the favorable factor of rich organic black shales sediment is formed in Yangtze area. That Chemical Index of Alteration (CIA) values of the lower Wufeng formation and Longmaxi formation exhibits moderate chemistry weathering suggests they were deposited under the circumstances of the warm and humid climate. However, the large difference of the CIA values of N.extraordinarius-N.ojsuensis biozone suggests that climate is changeful. Therefore, there were two different kinds of climates in the course of the deposition of the Wufeng formation and Longmaxi formation. During the Late Ordovician - Earily Silurian periods, in Yangtze palaeosea, the surface water which is full of rich nutriment and abundant bacterium - algae has high palaeo-productivity that is obvious difference in the different space – time. The content of sulphate changes gradually from the surface water columns to the deep water columns. That is, salinity in the surface water columns is serious low and the salinity in deep water columns is normal. Salinity delamination is favor of the forming of deep anoxic environment. During Wufeng period, the oxidated and low sulfate environment exists in the upper Yangtze palaeosea, while the anoxic and normal salinity environment occurs in the lower Yangtze palaeosea. During the Late Wufeng and Guanyinqiao periods, the steady anoxic environment is replaced by oxidated environment. During the Longmaxi period, layered and anoxic environment recur. In Yangtze area, studies of δ13C of sedimentary organic carbon show a positive δ13C excursion up to 4‰ in the Guanyinqiao stage and then, acute negative excursion in the earily Longmaxi stage. These organic carbon isotopes curve are not only efficient measure of carving up strata borderline, but also reflected the change of originality productivity. These organic carbon isotopes curves showed the process of the enhanced embedding of the global organic carbon. Anoxic event is the main factor of increasing organic carbon embedding speed. And the reduced organic carbon embedding in Hirnantian stage is due to the water column with abundant oxygen. The δ34S values are gradually positive excursion from P.pacificus biozone to N.extraordinarius biozone, and reach the maximum in the Upper Hirnantian stage. Then, the δ34S values are negative excursion. The excursions of δ13C and δ34S reflect the acute change of environment. The formation of source rocks is largely dependent on the nature of organisms from which kerogen is derived and the preservation conditions of organic matter, which are fundamentally dependent on a favourable combination of various elements in which organisms live and are subsequently buried. These elements include palaeoclimate, palaeostructure and palaeoenvironmental conditions. Based on above mentioned circumstance, the coupling connection of source rock and the palaeoclimate, and of palaeostructure and palaeoenvironmental conditions are confirmed, and the “anoxic-marginal depression-photosynthesis” environemental model is established. It is indicated that anoxic played important role in production of organic matter. The produced organic matter was accumulated in marginal depression of the Yangtze area. The photosynthesis is favor of the high productivity. Source rocks have a good perspective, like that of “hot shale” deposited in North Africa.

Phyloclimatic modeling: Combining phylogenetics and bioclimatic modeling

We investigate the impact of past climates on plant diversification by tracking the "footprint" of climate change on a phylogenetic tree. Diversity within the cosmopolitan carnivorous plant genus Drosera (Droseraceae) is focused within Mediterranean climate regions. We explore whether this diversity is temporally linked to Mediterranean-type climatic shifts of the mid-Miocene and whether climate preferences are conservative over phylogenetic timescales. Phyloclimatic modeling combines environmental niche (bioclimatic) modeling with phylogenetics in order to study evolutionary patterns in relation to climate change. We present the largest and most complete such example to date using Drosera. The bioclimatic models of extant species demonstrate clear phylogenetic patterns; this is particularly evident for the tuberous sundews from southwestern Australia (subgenus Ergaleium). We employ a method for establishing confidence intervals of node ages on a phylogeny using replicates from a Bayesian phylogenetic analysis. This chronogram shows that many clades, including subgenus Ergaleium and section Bryastrum, diversified during the establishment of the Mediterranean-type climate. Ancestral reconstructions of bioclimatic models demonstrate a pattern of preference for this climate type within these groups. Ancestral bioclimatic models are projected into palaeo-climate reconstructions for the time periods indicated by the chronogram. We present two such examples that each generate plausible estimates of ancestral lineage distribution, which are similar to their current distributions. This is the first study to attempt bioclimatic projections on evolutionary time scales. The sundews appear to have diversified in response to local climate development. Some groups are specialized for Mediterranean climates, others show wide-ranging generalism. This demonstrates that Phyloclimatic modeling could be repeated for other plant groups and is fundamental to the understanding of evolutionary responses to climate change.

(Table 1) Age determination of stalagmites of the Marcello Arévalo Cave in Chile

Stalagmites are important palaeo-climatic archives since their chemical and isotopic signatures have the potential to record high-resolution changes in temperature and precipitation over thousands of years. We present three U/Th-dated records of stalagmites (MA1-MA3) in the superhumid southern Andes, Chile (53°S). They grew simultaneously during the last five thousand years (ka BP) in a cave that developed in schist and granodiorite. Major and trace elements as well as the C and O isotope compositions of the stalagmites were analysed at high spatial and temporal resolution as proxies for palaeo-temperature and palaeo-precipitation. Calibrations are based on data from five years of monitoring the climate and hydrology inside and outside the cave and on data from 100 years of regional weather station records. Water-insoluble elements such as Y and HREE in the stalagmites indicate the amount of incorporated siliciclastic detritus. Monitoring shows that the quantity of detritus is controlled by the drip water rate once a threshold level has been exceeded. In general, drip rate variations of the stalagmites depend on the amount of rainfall. However, different drip-water pathways above each drip location gave rise to individual drip rate levels. Only one of the three stalagmites (MA1) had sufficiently high drip rates to record detrital proxies over its complete length. Carbonate-compatible element contents (e.g. U, Sr, Mg), which were measured up to sub-annual resolution, document changes in meteoric precipitation and related drip-water dilution. In addition, these soluble elements are controlled by leaching during weathering of the host rock and soils depending on the pH of acidic pore waters in the peaty soils of the cave's catchment area. In general, higher rainfall resulted in a lower concentration of these elements and vice versa. The Mg/Ca record of stalagmite MA1 was calibrated against meteoric precipitation records for the last 100 years from two regional weather stations. Carbonate-compatible soluble elements show similar patterns in the three stalagmites with generally high values when drip rates and detrital tracers were low and vice versa. d13C and d18O values are highly correlated in each stalagmite suggesting a predominantly drip rate dependent kinetic control by evaporation and/or outgassing. Only C and O isotopes from stalagmite MA1 that received the highest drip rates show a good correlation between detrital proxy elements and carbonate-compatible elements. A temperature-related change in rainwater isotope values modified the MA1 record during the Little Ice Age (~0.7-0.1 ka BP) that was ~1.5 °C colder than today. The isotopic composition of the stalagmites MA2 and MA3 that formed at lower drip rates shows a poor correlation with stalagmite MA1 and all other chemical proxies of MA1. 'Hendy tests' indicate that the degassing-controlled isotope fractionation of MA2 and MA3 had already started at the cave roof, especially when drip rates were low. Changing pathways and residence times of the seepage water caused a non-climatically controlled isotope fractionation, which may be generally important in ventilated caves during phases of low drip rates. Our proxies indicate that the Neoglacial cold phases from ~3.5 to 2.5 and from ~0.7 to 0.1 ka BP were characterised by 30% lower precipitation compared with the Medieval Warm Period from 1.2 to 0.8 ka BP, which was extremely humid in this region.

Gridded bathymetry from multibeam echosounder EM120 data of the cruise M72/5 (2007)

Bathymetry based on data recorded during M72-5 between 14.05.2007 and 06.06.2007 in the Black Sea. This cruise focused on the biogeochemical and microbiological processes around the oxic/anoxic interface of the chemocline in the water column and in shelf sediments as well as in the TOC-rich sediments of the deep Black Sea basins. A further important goal was to investigate the regional palaeo-climate on the basis of sedimentological analyses of early Holocene and previously deposited interglacial and limnic sediments.

Gridded bathymetry from multibeam echosounder EM120 data of the cruise M72/3a and M72/3b (2007)

Bathymetry based on data recorded during M72-3 between 17.03.2007 and 23.04.2007 in the Black Sea. This cruise concentrated on interdisciplinary work on gas hydrates with a main focus on the gas hydrate transition zone in and below 750 m water depth. Gas hydrate environments have been studied in various geological settings, mainly of the eastern Black Sea. Origins, distributions and dynamics of methane and gas hydrates in sediments and also methane fluxes from the sediment to the water column have been the focus. Main working areas were the Sorokin Trough, an area south of the Kerch Strait and the Andrusov Ridge in Ukrainian waters and the Gudauta Ridge and Gurian Trough in Georgian waters.

Gridded bathymetry from multibeam echosounder EM120 data of the cruise M72/4 (2007)

Bathymetry based on data recorded during M72-4 between 25.04.2007 and 11.05.2007 in the Black Sea. This main objective of this cruise was to gain better knowledge of the pathways of methane from their point of formation via potential intermediate deposits to the seafloor in order to understand the mechanisms leading to the submarine discharge of methane-rich fluids. Two regional Black Sea targets have been chosen: The Sorokin Trough, with focused seepage through mud volcanoes, and the Dniepr area where active gas venting occurs from very shallow water depths down to at least 1000 m.

Gridded bathymetry from multibeam echosounder EM120 data of the cruise M72/1 (2007)

Bathymetry based on data recorded during M72-1 between 07.02.2007 and 20.02.2007 in the Black Sea. The main focus of the cruise were gas vents and seeps in the north-western Black Sea below 700 m water depth which is the zone of gas hydrate stability. The main target area was the deep Dnepr Canyon west of the Crimea Peninsula where previous investigations had indicated the occurrence of gas seepage.

Gridded bathymetry from multibeam echosounder EM120 data of the cruise M72/2 (2007)

Bathymetry based on data recorded during M72-2 between 23.02.2007 and 13.03.2007 in the Black Sea. The main focus of the cruise was to study the fluxes and turnover of methane and sulphur in the Black Sea hydrocarbon seep systems and investigating the microbial diversity in two contrasting permanently anoxic settings associated with fluid flow and gas seepage: the methane seeps at the shelf break of the Palaeo-Dnepr area and the hydrocarbon seeps of the mud volcanoes in the 2000 m deep Sorokin trough east of Crimea.