Evaluation of isoprene degradation in the detailed tropospheric chemical mechanism, MCM v3, using environmental chamber data

The isoprene degradation mechanism included in version 3 of the Master Chemical Mechanism (MCM v3) has been evaluated and refined, using the Statewide Air Pollution Research Center (SAPRC) environmental chamber datasets on the photo-oxidation of isoprene and its degradation products, methacrolein (MACR) and methylvinyl ketone (MVK). Prior to this, the MCM v3 butane degradation chemistry was also evaluated using chamber data on the photo-oxidation of butane, and its degradation products, methylethyl ketone (MEK), acetaldehyde (CH3CHO) and formaldehyde (HCHO), in conjunction with an initial evaluation of the chamber-dependent auxiliary mechanisms for the series of relevant chambers. The MCM v3 mechanisms for both isoprene and butane generally performed well and were found to provide an acceptable reaction framework for describing the NOx-photo-oxidation experiments on the above systems, although a number of parameter modifications and refinements were identified which resulted in an improved performance. All these relate to the magnitude of sources of free radicals from organic chemical process, such as carbonyl photolysis rates and the yields of radicals from the reactions of O3 with unsaturated oxygenates, and specific recommendations are made for refinements. In addition to this, it was necessary to include a representation of the reactions of O(3P) with isoprene, MACR and MVK (which were not previously treated in MCM v3), and conclusions are drawn concerning the required extent of free radical formation from these reactions. Throughout the study, the performance of MCM v3 was also compared with that of the SAPRC-99 mechanism, which was developed and optimized in conjunction with the chamber datasets.

Evaluation of alkene degradation in the detailed tropospheric chemistry mechanism, MCM v3, using environmental chamber data

The representation of alkene degradation in version 3 of the Master Chemical Mechanism (MCM v3) has been evaluated, using environmental chamber data on the photo-oxidation of ethene, propene, 1-butene and 1-hexene in the presence of NOx, from up to five chambers at the Statewide Air Pollution Research Center (SAPRC) at the University of California. As part of this evaluation, it was necessary to include a representation of the reactions of the alkenes with O(3P), which are significant under chamber conditions but generally insignificant under atmospheric conditions. The simulations for the ethene and propene systems, in particular, were found to be sensitive to the branching ratios assigned to molecular and free radical forming pathways of the O(3P) reactions, with the extent of radical formation required for proper fitting of the model to the chamber data being substantially lower than the reported consensus. With this constraint, the MCM v3 mechanisms for ethene and propene generally performed well. The sensitivity of the simulations to the parameters applied to a series of other radical sources and sink reactions (radical formation from the alkene ozonolysis reactions and product carbonyl photolysis; radical removal from the reaction of OH with NO2 and β-hydroxynitrate formation) were also considered, and the implications of these results are discussed. Evaluation of the MCM v3 1-butene and 1-hexene degradation mechanisms, using a more limited dataset from only one chamber, was found to be inconclusive. The results of sensitivity studies demonstrate that it is impossible to reconcile the simulated and observed formation of ozone in these systems for ranges of parameter values which can currently be justified on the basis of the literature. As a result of this work, gaps and uncertainties in the kinetic, mechanistic and chamber database are identified and discussed, in relation to both tropospheric chemistry and chemistry important under chamber conditions which may compromise the evaluation procedure, and recommendations are made for future experimental studies. Throughout the study, the performance of the MCM v3 chemistry was also simultaneously compared with that of the corresponding chemistry in the SAPRC-99 mechanism, which was developed and optimized in conjunction with the chamber datasets.

Evaluating the Performance of a Regional-Scale Photochemical Modelling System: Part I Ozone Predictions

We present a detailed evaluation of the seasonal performance of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modelling system and the PSU/NCAR meteorological model coupled to a new Numerical Emission Model for Air Quality (MNEQA). The combined system simulates air quality at a fine resolution (3 km as horizontal resolution and 1 h as temporal resolution) in north-eastern Spain, where problems of ozone pollution are frequent. An extensive database compiled over two periods, from May to September 2009 and 2010, is used to evaluate meteorological simulations and chemical outputs. Our results indicate that the model accurately reproduces hourly and 1-h and 8-h maximum ozone surface concentrations measured at the air quality stations, as statistical values fall within the EPA and EU recommendations. However, to further improve forecast accuracy, three simple bias-adjustment techniques mean subtraction (MS), ratio adjustment (RA), and hybrid forecast (HF) based on 10 days of available comparisons are applied. The results show that the MS technique performed better than RA or HF, although all the bias-adjustment techniques significantly reduce the systematic errors in ozone forecasts.

Biogenic nitric oxide emissions from soils: impact on NOx and ozone over West Africa during AMMA (African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis) - Modelling study

Nitrogen oxide biogenic emissions from soils are driven by soil and environmental parameters. The relationship between these parameters and NO fluxes is highly non linear. A new algorithm, based on a neural network calculation, is used to reproduce the NO biogenic emissions linked to precipitations in the Sahel on the 6 August 2006 during the AMMA campaign. This algorithm has been coupled in the surface scheme of a coupled chemistry dynamics model (MesoNH Chemistry) to estimate the impact of the NO emissions on NOx and O3 formation in the lower troposphere for this particular episode. Four different simulations on the same domain and at the same period are compared: one with anthropogenic emissions only, one with soil NO emissions from a static inventory, at low time and space resolution, one with NO emissions from neural network, and one with NO from neural network plus lightning NOx. The influence of NOx from lightning is limited to the upper troposphere. The NO emission from soils calculated with neural network responds to changes in soil moisture giving enhanced emissions over the wetted soil, as observed by aircraft measurements after the passing of a convective system. The subsequent enhancement of NOx and ozone is limited to the lowest layers of the atmosphere in modelling, whereas measurements show higher concentrations above 1000 m. The neural network algorithm, applied in the Sahel region for one particular day of the wet season, allows an immediate response of fluxes to environmental parameters, unlike static emission inventories. Stewart et al (2008) is a companion paper to this one which looks at NOx and ozone concentrations in the boundary layer as measured on a research aircraft, examines how they vary with respect to the soil moisture, as indicated by surface temperature anomalies, and deduces NOx fluxes. In this current paper the model-derived results are compared to the observations and calculated fluxes presented by Stewart et al (2008).

Modelling study of the impact of deep convection on the utls air composition - Part I: Analysis of ozone precursors

The aim of this work is to study the local impact on the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere air composition of an extreme deep convective system. For this purpose, we performed a simulation of a convective cluster composed of many individual deep convective cells that occurred near Bauru (Brazil). The simulation is performed using the 3-D mesoscale model RAMS coupled on-line with a chemistry model. The comparisons with meteorological measurements show that the model produces meteorological fields generally consistent with the observations. The present paper (part I) is devoted to the analysis of the ozone precursors (CO, NO x and non-methane volatile organic compounds) and HO x in the UTLS. The simulation results show that the distribution of CO with altitude is closely related to the upward convective motions and consecutive outflow at the top of the convective cells leading to a bulge of CO between 7 km altitude and the tropopause (around 17km altitude). The model results for CO are consistent with satellite-borne measurements at 700 hPa. The simulation also indicates enhanced amounts of NO x up to 2 ppbv in the 7-17 km altitude layer mainly produced by the lightning associated with the intense convective activity. For insoluble non-methane volatile organic compounds, the convective activity tends to significantly increase their amount in the 7-17km layer by dynamical effects. During daytime in the presence of lightning NO x, this bulge is largely reduced in the upper part of the layer for reactive species (e.g. isoprene, ethene) because of their reactions with OH that is increased on average during daytime. Lightning NO x also impacts on the oxydizing capacity of the upper troposphere by reducing on average HO x, HO 2, H 2O 2 and organic hydroperoxides. During the simulation time, the impact of convection on the air composition of the lower stratosphere is negligible for all ozone precursors although several of the simulated convective cells nearly reach the tropopause. There is no significant transport from the upper troposphere to the lower stratosphere, the isentropic barrier not being crossed by convection. The impact of the increase of ozone precursors and HO x in the upper troposphere on the ozone budget in the LS is discussed in part II of this series of papers.

Comparison of different stomatal conductance algorithms for ozone flux modelling

A multiplicative and a semi-mechanistic, BWB-type [Ball, J.T., Woodrow, I.E., Berry, J.A., 1987. A model predicting stomatalconductance and its contribution to the control of photosynthesis under different environmental conditions. In: Biggens, J. (Ed.), Progress in Photosynthesis Research, vol. IV. Martinus Nijhoff, Dordrecht, pp. 221–224.] algorithm for calculating stomatalconductance (gs) at the leaf level have been parameterised for two crop and two tree species to test their use in regional scale ozone deposition modelling. The algorithms were tested against measured, site-specific data for durum wheat, grapevine, beech and birch of different European provenances. A direct comparison of both algorithms showed a similar performance in predicting hourly means and daily time-courses of gs, whereas the multiplicative algorithm outperformed the BWB-type algorithm in modelling seasonal time-courses due to the inclusion of a phenology function. The re-parameterisation of the algorithms for local conditions in order to validate ozone deposition modelling on a European scale reveals the higher input requirements of the BWB-type algorithm as compared to the multiplicative algorithm because of the need of the former to model net photosynthesis (An)

Implementation of a module for risk of ozone impacts assessment to vegetation in the integrated assessment modelling system for the Iberian peninsula. Evaluation for wheat and holm oak

A module to estimate risks of ozone damage to vegetation has been implemented in the Integrated Assessment Modelling system for the Iberian Peninsula. It was applied to compute three different indexes for wheat and Holm oak; daylight AOT40 (cumulative ozone concentration over 40 ppb), cumulative ozone exposure index according to the Directive 2008/50/EC (AOT40-D) and PODY (Phytotoxic Ozone Dose over a given threshold of Y nmol m−2 s−1). The use of these indexes led to remarkable differences in spatial patterns of relative ozone risks on vegetation. Ozone critical levels were exceeded in most of the modelling domain and soil moisture content was found to have a significant impact on the results. According to the outputs of the model, daylight AOT40 constitutes a more conservative index than the AOT40-D. Additionally, flux-based estimations indicate high risk areas in Portugal for both wheat and Holm oak that are not identified by AOT-based methods.

Modelling ozone stomatal flux over wheat under Mediterranean conditions

Correct estimation of leaf-level stomatal conductance (gsto) is central for current ozone (O3) risk assessment of wheat yield loss based on the absorbed O3 phytotoxic dose (POD). The gsto model parameterizations developed in Europe must be checked in the different climatic regions where they are going to be applied in order to reduce the uncertainties associated with the POD approach. This work proposes a new gsto model parameterization for estimating POD of Triticum aestivum and Triticum durum under Mediterranean conditions, based on phenological observations over 25 years and gsto field measurements during 5 growing seasons. Results show that POD in the Mediterranean area might be higher than previously estimated. However, caution must be paid when assessing the risk of yield loss for wheat in this area since field validation of O3 impacts is still limited.

The potential to narrow uncertainty in projections of stratospheric ozone over the 21st century

Future stratospheric ozone concentrations will be determined both by changes in the concentration of ozone depleting substances (ODSs) and by changes in stratospheric and tropospheric climate, including those caused by changes in anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs). Since future economic development pathways and resultant emissions of GHGs are uncertain, anthropogenic climate change could be a significant source of uncertainty for future projections of stratospheric ozone. In this pilot study, using an "ensemble of opportunity" of chemistry-climate model (CCM) simulations, the contribution of scenario uncertainty from different plausible emissions pathways for ODSs and GHGs to future ozone projections is quantified relative to the contribution from model uncertainty and internal variability of the chemistry-climate system. For both the global, annual mean ozone concentration and for ozone in specific geographical regions, differences between CCMs are the dominant source of uncertainty for the first two-thirds of the 21st century, up-to and after the time when ozone concentrations return to 1980 values. In the last third of the 21st century, dependent upon the set of greenhouse gas scenarios used, scenario uncertainty can be the dominant contributor. This result suggests that investment in chemistry-climate modelling is likely to continue to refine projections of stratospheric ozone and estimates of the return of stratospheric ozone concentrations to pre-1980 levels.

Coupling aerosol surface and bulk chemistry with a kinetic double layer model (K2-SUB): oxidation of oleic acid by ozone

We present a kinetic double layer model coupling aerosol surface and bulk chemistry (K2-SUB) based on the PRA framework of gas-particle interactions (Poschl-Rudich-Ammann, 2007). K2-SUB is applied to a popular model system of atmospheric heterogeneous chemistry: the interaction of ozone with oleic acid. We show that our modelling approach allows de-convoluting surface and bulk processes, which has been a controversial topic and remains an important challenge for the understanding and description of atmospheric aerosol transformation. In particular, we demonstrate how a detailed treatment of adsorption and reaction at the surface can be coupled to a description of bulk reaction and transport that is consistent with traditional resistor model formulations. From literature data we have derived a consistent set of kinetic parameters that characterise mass transport and chemical reaction of ozone at the surface and in the bulk of oleic acid droplets. Due to the wide range of rate coefficients reported from different experimental studies, the exact proportions between surface and bulk reaction rates remain uncertain. Nevertheless, the model results suggest an important role of chemical reaction in the bulk and an approximate upper limit of similar to 10(-11) cm(2) s(-1) for the surface reaction rate coefficient. Sensitivity studies show that the surface accommodation coefficient of the gas-phase reactant has a strong non-linear influence on both surface and bulk chemical reactions. We suggest that K2-SUB may be used to design, interpret and analyse future experiments for better discrimination between surface and bulk processes in the oleic acid-ozone system as well as in other heterogeneous reaction systems of atmospheric relevance.

Aircraft routing with minimal climate impact: the REACT4C climate cost function modelling approach (V1.0)

In addition to CO2, the climate impact of aviation is strongly influenced by non-CO2 emissions, such as nitrogen oxides, influencing ozone and methane, and water vapour, which can lead to the formation of persistent contrails in ice-supersaturated regions. Because these non-CO2 emission effects are characterised by a short lifetime, their climate impact largely depends on emission location and time; that is to say, emissions in certain locations (or times) can lead to a greater climate impact (even on the global average) than the same emission in other locations (or times). Avoiding these climate-sensitive regions might thus be beneficial to climate. Here, we describe a modelling chain for investigating this climate impact mitigation option. This modelling chain forms a multi-step modelling approach, starting with the simulation of the fate of emissions released at a certain location and time (time-region grid points). This is performed with the chemistry–climate model EMAC, extended via the two submodels AIRTRAC (V1.0) and CONTRAIL (V1.0), which describe the contribution of emissions to the composition of the atmosphere and to contrail formation, respectively. The impact of emissions from the large number of time-region grid points is efficiently calculated by applying a Lagrangian scheme. EMAC also includes the calculation of radiative impacts, which are, in a second step, the input to climate metric formulas describing the global climate impact of the emission at each time-region grid point. The result of the modelling chain comprises a four-dimensional data set in space and time, which we call climate cost functions and which describes the global climate impact of an emission at each grid point and each point in time. In a third step, these climate cost functions are used in an air traffic simulator (SAAM) coupled to an emission tool (AEM) to optimise aircraft trajectories for the North Atlantic region. Here, we describe the details of this new modelling approach and show some example results. A number of sensitivity analyses are performed to motivate the settings of individual parameters. A stepwise sanity check of the results of the modelling chain is undertaken to demonstrate the plausibility of the climate cost functions.

Local scale finite element modelling of stack pollutant emissions

Congresos y conferencias

Stable isotope composition of atmospheric carbon monoxide : a modelling study

Stable isotope composition of atmospheric carbon monoxide: A modelling study.rnrnThis study aims at an improved understanding of the stable carbon and oxygen isotope composition of the carbon monoxide (CO) in the global atmosphere by means of numerical simulations. At first, a new kinetic chemistry tagging technique for the most complete parameterisation of isotope effects has been introduced into the Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy) framework. Incorporated into the ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) general circulation model, an explicit treatment of the isotope effects on the global scale is now possible. The expanded model system has been applied to simulate the chemical system containing up to five isotopologues of all carbon- and oxygen-bearing species, which ultimately determine the δ13C, δ18O and Δ17O isotopic signatures of atmospheric CO. As model input, a new stable isotope-inclusive emission inventory for the relevant trace gases has been compiled. The uncertainties of the emission estimates and of the resulting simulated mixing and isotope ratios have been analysed. The simulated CO mixing and stable isotope ratios have been compared to in-situ measurements from ground-based observatories and from the civil-aircraft-mounted CARIBIC−1 measurement platform.rnrnThe systematically underestimated 13CO/12CO ratios of earlier, simplified modelling studies can now be partly explained. The EMAC simulations do not support the inferences of those studies, which suggest for CO a reduced input of the highly depleted in 13C methane oxidation source. In particular, a high average yield of 0.94 CO per reacted methane (CH4) molecule is simulated in the troposphere, to a large extent due to the competition between the deposition and convective transport processes affecting the CH4 to CO reaction chain intermediates. None of the other factors, assumed or disregarded in previous studies, however hypothesised to have the potential in enriching tropospheric CO in 13C, were found significant when explicitly simulated. The inaccurate surface emissions, likely underestimated over East Asia, are responsible for roughly half of the discrepancies between the simulated and observed 13CO in the northern hemisphere (NH), whereas the remote southern hemisphere (SH) compositions suggest an underestimated fractionation during the oxidation of CO by the hydroxyl radical (OH). A reanalysis of the kinetic isotope effect (KIE) in this reaction contrasts the conventional assumption of a mere pressure dependence, and instead suggests an additional temperature dependence of the 13C KIE, which is driven by changes in the partitioning of the reaction exit channels. This result is yet to be confirmed in the laboratory.rnrnApart from 13CO, for the first time the atmospheric distribution of the oxygen mass-independent fractionation (MIF) in CO, Δ17O, has been consistently simulated on the global scale with EMAC. The applicability of Δ17O(CO) observations to unravelling changes in the tropospheric CH4-CO-OH system has been scrutinised, as well as the implications of the ozone (O3) input to the CO isotope oxygen budget. The Δ17O(CO) is confirmed to be the principal signal for the CO photochemical age, thus providing a measure for the OH chiefly involved in the sink of CO. The highly mass-independently fractionated O3 oxygen is estimated to comprise around 2% of the overall tropospheric CO source, which has implications for the δ18O, but less likely for the Δ17O CO budgets. Finally, additional sensitivity simulations with EMAC corroborate the nearly equal net effects of the present-day CH4 and CO burdens in removing tropospheric OH, as well as the large turnover and stability of the abundance of the latter. The simulated CO isotopologues nonetheless hint at a likely insufficient OH regeneration in the NH high latitudes and the upper troposphere / lower stratosphere (UTLS).rn

(Table 1) Maximal daily erythemally effective UVB radiation and total ozone content at Vernadsky Station, Antarctica

One of the research programs carried out within the Czech-Ukrainian scientific co-operation is the monitoring of global solar and ultraviolet radiation at the Vernadsky Station (formerly the British Faraday Station), Antarctica. Radiation measurements have been made since 2002. Recently, a special attention is devoted to the measurements of the erythemally effective UVB radiation using a broadband Robertson Berger 501 UV-Biometer (Solar Light Co. Inc., USA). This paper brings some results from modelling the daily sums of erythemally effective UVB radiation intensity in relation to the total ozone content (TOC) in atmosphere and surface intensity of the global solar radiation. Differences between the satellite- and ground-based measurements of the TOC at the Vernadsky Station are taken into consideration. The modelled erythemally effective UVB radiation differed slightly depending on the seasons and sources of the TOC. The model relative prediction error for ground- and satellite-based measurements varied between 9.5% and 9.6% in the period of 2002-2003, while it ranged from 7.4% to 8.8% in the period of 2003-2004.

The Basic Reproduction Number Obtained From Jacobian And Next Generation Matrices - A Case Study Of Dengue Transmission Modelling.

The basic reproduction number is a key parameter in mathematical modelling of transmissible diseases. From the stability analysis of the disease free equilibrium, by applying Routh-Hurwitz criteria, a threshold is obtained, which is called the basic reproduction number. However, the application of spectral radius theory on the next generation matrix provides a different expression for the basic reproduction number, that is, the square root of the previously found formula. If the spectral radius of the next generation matrix is defined as the geometric mean of partial reproduction numbers, however the product of these partial numbers is the basic reproduction number, then both methods provide the same expression. In order to show this statement, dengue transmission modelling incorporating or not the transovarian transmission is considered as a case study. Also tuberculosis transmission and sexually transmitted infection modellings are taken as further examples.