Do Measurement Errors in GDP Announcements Cause Output Fluctuations?

This thesis studies empirically whether measurement errors in aggregate production statistics affect sentiment and future output. Initial announcements of aggregate production are subject to measurement error, because many of the data required to compile the statistics are produced with a lag. This measurement error can be gauged as the difference between the latest revised statistic and its initial announcement. Assuming aggregate production statistics help forecast future aggregate production, these measurement errors are expected to affect macroeconomic forecasts. Assuming agents’ macroeconomic forecasts affect their production choices, these measurement errors should affect future output through sentiment. This thesis is primarily empirical, so the theoretical basis, strategic complementarity, is discussed quite briefly. However, it is a model in which higher aggregate production increases each agent’s incentive to produce. In this circumstance a statistical announcement which suggests aggregate production is high would increase each agent’s incentive to produce, thus resulting in higher aggregate production. In this way the existence of strategic complementarity provides the theoretical basis for output fluctuations caused by measurement mistakes in aggregate production statistics. Previous empirical studies suggest that measurement errors in gross national product affect future aggregate production in the United States. Additionally it has been demonstrated that measurement errors in the Index of Leading Indicators affect forecasts by professional economists as well as future industrial production in the United States. This thesis aims to verify the applicability of these findings to other countries, as well as study the link between measurement errors in gross domestic product and sentiment. This thesis explores the relationship between measurement errors in gross domestic production and sentiment and future output. Professional forecasts and consumer sentiment in the United States and Finland, as well as producer sentiment in Finland, are used as the measures of sentiment. Using statistical techniques it is found that measurement errors in gross domestic product affect forecasts and producer sentiment. The effect on consumer sentiment is ambiguous. The relationship between measurement errors and future output is explored using data from Finland, United States, United Kingdom, New Zealand and Sweden. It is found that measurement errors have affected aggregate production or investment in Finland, United States, United Kingdom and Sweden. Specifically, it was found that overly optimistic statistics announcements are associated with higher output and vice versa.

Terms of trade and output fluctuations in Colombia

Includes bibliography.

Minimize frequency fluctuations of isolated power system with wind farm by using superconducting magnetic energy storage

Wind power generation as one of the most popular renewable energy applications is absorbing more and more attention all over the world. However, output power fluctuations of wind farm due to random variations of wind speed can cause network frequency and voltage flicker in power systems. The power quality consequently declines, particularly in an isolated power system such as the power system in a remote community or a small island. This paper proposes an application of superconducting magnetic energy storage (SMES) to minimize output fluctuations of an isolated power system with wind farm. The isolated power system is fed by a diesel generator and a wind generator consisting of a wind turbine and squirrel cage induction machine. The control strategy is detailed and the proposed system is evaluated by simulation in Matlab/Simulink.

Output sustainability to exogenous and endogenous shocks: evidence from emerging economies

This paper studies the impact of exogenous and endogenous shocks (exogenous shock is used interchangeably with external shock; endogenous shock is used interchangeably with domestic shock) on output fluctuations in post-communist countries during the 2000s. The first part presents the analytical framework and formulates a research hypothesis. The second part presents vector autoregressive estimation and analysis model proposed by Pesaran (2004) and Pesaran and Smith (2006) that relates bank real lending, the cyclical component of output and spreads and accounts for cross-sectional dependence (CD) across the countries. Impulse response functions show that exogenous positive shock lead to a drop in output sustainability for 9 over 12 Central Eastern European countries and Russia, when the endogenous shock is mild and ambiguous. Moreover, the effect of exogenous shock is more significant during the crises. Variance decompositions show that exogenous shock in the aftermath of crisis had a substantial impact on economic activity of emerging economies.

The role of income inequality on fiscal multipliers

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Double Degree in Economics from the Nova School of Business and Economics and University of Maastricht

A brief history of Brazil's growth

The paper studies Brazil’s economic growth and begins with a brief overview of events that marked the country’s development from her discovery to the 19th century. It then divides the years between 1900 and 2008 into four periods. The breaks in regime occur in 1918, 1967 and 1980, according to the methodology created by Bai and Perron (1998, 2003). The use of the accounting methodology serves the analysis of the behavior of productivity in the previously identified different phases of the post-World War II period. High inflation might have been a reason for the decline in productivity observed between 1980 and mid-1990s. The paper shows that terms of trade have a significant effect on economic growth and output fluctuations. Other factors (such as fiscal stimulus or easy access to foreign finance) also matter for output accelerations in the short run. From 2004 to 2008, terms of trade improvement and debt reduction brought economic progress. The emergence of a new era in this millennium will depend on wiser fiscal policies than those of the past.

Business cycles in emerging economies : the role of interest rates

This paper documents the empirical relation between the interest rates that emerging economies face in international capital markets and their business cycles. It shows that the patterns observed in the data can be interpreted as the equilibrium of a dynamic general equilibrium model of a small open economy, in which (i) firms have to pay for a fraction of the input bill before production takes place, and (ii) preferences generate a labor supply that is independent of the interest rate. In our sample, interest rates are strongly countercyclical, strongly positively correlated with net exports, and they lead the cycle. Output is very volatile and consumption is more volatile than output. The sample includes data for Argentina during 1983-2000 and for four other large emerging economies, Brazil, Mexico, Korea, and Philippines, during 1994-2000. The model is calibrated to Argentina’s economy for the period 1983-1999. When the model is fed with actual US interest rates and the actual default spreads of Argentine sovereign interest rates, interest rates alone can explain forty percent of output fluctuations. When simulated technology shocks are added to the model, it can account for the main empirical regularities of Argentina’s economy during the period. A 1% increase in country risk causes a contemporaneous fall in output of 0.5 ’subsequent recovery. An increase in US rates causes output to fall by the same on impact and by almost 2% two years after the shock. The asymetry in the effect of shocks to US rates and country risk is due to the fact that US interest rates are more persistent than country risk and that there is a significant spillover effect from US interest rates to country risk.

Do R&D strategies in high-tech sectors differ from those in low-tech sectors? An alternative approach to testing the pooling assumption

Most studies investigating the determinants of R&D investment consider pooled estimates. However, if the parameters are heterogeneous, pooled coefficients may not provide reliable estimates of individual industry effects. Hence pooled parameters may conceal valuable information that may help target government tools more efficiently across heterogeneous industries. There is little evidence to date on the decomposition of the determinants of R&D investment by industry. Moreover, the existing work does not distinguish between those R&D determinants for which pooling may be valid and those for which it is not. In this paper, we test the pooling assumption for a panel of manufacturing industries and find that pooling is valid only for output fluctuations, adjustment costs and interest rates. Implementing the test results into our model, we find government funding is significant only for low-tech R&D. Foreign R&D and skilled labour matter only in high-tech sectors. These results suggest important implications for R&D policy.

From irradiance to output power fluctuations: the pv plant as a low pass filter

The power generated by large grid-connected photovoltaic (PV) plants depends greatly on the solar irradiance. This paper studies the effects of the solar irradiance variability analyzing experimental 1-s data collected throughout a year at six PV plants, totaling 18 MWp. Each PV plant was modeled as a first order filter function based on an analysis in the frequency domain of the irradiance data and the output power signals. An empiric expression which relates the filter parameters and the PV plant size has been proposed. This simple model has been successfully validated precisely determining the daily maximum output power fluctuation from incident irradiance measurements.

A general approach to control a positive buck-boost converter to achieve robustness against input voltage fluctuations and load changes

A Positive Buck-Boost converter is a known DC-DC converter which may be controlled to act as Buck or Boost converter with same polarity of the input voltage. This converter has four switching states which include all the switching states of the above mentioned DC-DC converters. In addition there is one switching state which provides a degree of freedom for the positive Buck-Boost converter in comparison to the Buck, Boost, and inverting Buck-Boost converters. In other words the Positive Buck-Boost Converter shows a higher level of flexibility for its inductor current control compared to the other DC-DC converters. In this paper this extra degree of freedom is utilised to increase the robustness against input voltage fluctuations and load changes. To address this capacity of the positive Buck-Boost converter, two different control strategies are proposed which control the inductor current and output voltage against any fluctuations in input voltage and load changes. Mathematical analysis for dynamic and steady state conditions are presented in this paper and simulation results verify the proposed method.

Economic fluctuations and productivity in the Malaysian construction sector

Growth in productivity is the key determinant of the long-term health and prosperity of an economy. The construction industry being one of major strategic importance, its productivity performance has a significant effect on national economic growth. The relationship between construction output and economy has received intensive studies, but there is lack of empirical study on the relationship between construction productivity and economic fluctuations. Fluctuations in construction output are endemic in the industry. In part they are caused by the boom and slump of the economy as a whole and in part by the nature of the construction product. This research aims to uncover how the productivity of construction sector is influenced in the course of economic fluctuations in Malaysia. Malaysia has adopted three economic policies – New Economic Policy (1971-1990), National Development Policy (1991-2000) and the National Vision Policy (2001-2010) since gaining independence in 1959. The Privatisation Master Plan was introduced in 1991. Operating within this historical context, the Malaysian construction sector has experienced four business cycles since 1960. A mixed-method design approach is adopted in this study. Quantitative analysis was conducted on the published official statistics of the construction industry and the overall economy in Malaysia between 1970 and 2009. Qualitative study involved interviews with a purposive sample of 21 industrial participants. This study identified a 32-year long building cycle appears in 1975-2006. It is superimposed with three shorter construction business cycles in 1975-1987, 1987-1999 and 1999-2006. The correlations of Construction labour productivity (CLP) and GDP per capita are statistically significant for the 1975-2006 building cycle, 1987-1999 and 1999-2006 construction business cycles. It was not significant in 1975-1987 construction business cycles. The Construction Industry Surveys/Census over the period from 1996 to 2007 show that the average growth rate of total output per employee expanded but the added value per employee contracted which imply high cost of bought-in materials and services and inefficient usage of purchases. The construction labour productivity is peaked at 2004 although there is contraction of construction sector in 2004. The residential subsector performed relatively better than the other sub-sectors in most of the productivity indicators. Improvements are found in output per employee, value added per employee, labour competitiveness and capital investment but declines are recorded in value added content and capital productivity. The civil engineering construction is most productive in the labour productivity nevertheless relatively poorer in the capital productivity. The labour cost is more competitive in the larger size establishment. The added value per labour cost is higher in larger sized establishment attributed to efficient in utilization of capital. The interview with the industrial participant reveals that the productivity of the construction sector is influenced by the economic environment, the construction methods, contract arrangement, payment chain and regulatory policies. The fluctuations of construction demand have caused companies switched to defensive strategy during the economic downturn and to ensure short-term survival than to make a profit for the long-term survival and growth. It leads the company to take drastic measures to curb expenses, downsizing, employ contract employment, diversification and venture overseas market. There is no empirical evidence supports downsizing as a necessary step in a process of reviving productivity. The productivity does not correlate with size of firm. A relatively smaller and focused firm is more productive than the larger and diversified organisation. However diversified company experienced less fluctuation in both labour and capital productivity. In order to improve the productivity of the construction sector, it is necessary to remove the negatives and flaws from past practices. The recommended measures include long-term strategic planning and coordinated approaches of government agencies in planning of infrastructure development and to provide regulatory environments which encourage competition and facilitate productivity improvement.

Essays on Labor Market Frictions, Technological Change and Macroeconomic Fluctuations

The dissertation consists of an introductory chapter and three essays that apply search-matching theory to study the interaction of labor market frictions, technological change and macroeconomic fluctuations. The first essay studies the impact of capital-embodied growth on equilibrium unemployment by extending a vintage capital/search model to incorporate vintage human capital. In addition to the capital obsolescence (or creative destruction) effect that tends to raise unemployment, vintage human capital introduces a skill obsolescence effect of faster growth that has the opposite sign. Faster skill obsolescence reduces the value of unemployment, hence wages and leads to more job creation and less job destruction, unambiguously reducing unemployment. The second essay studies the effect of skill biased technological change on skill mismatch and the allocation of workers and firms in the labor market. By allowing workers to invest in education, we extend a matching model with two-sided heterogeneity to incorporate an endogenous distribution of high and low skill workers. We consider various possibilities for the cost of acquiring skills and show that while unemployment increases in most scenarios, the effect on the distribution of vacancy and worker types varies according to the structure of skill costs. When the model is extended to incorporate endogenous labor market participation, we show that the unemployment rate becomes less informative of the state of the labor market as the participation margin absorbs employment effects. The third essay studies the effects of labor taxes on equilibrium labor market outcomes and macroeconomic dynamics in a New Keynesian model with matching frictions. Three policy instruments are considered: a marginal tax and a tax subsidy to produce tax progression schemes, and a replacement ratio to account for variability in outside options. In equilibrium, the marginal tax rate and replacement ratio dampen economic activity whereas tax subsidies boost the economy. The marginal tax rate and replacement ratio amplify shock responses whereas employment subsidies weaken them. The tax instruments affect the degree to which the wage absorbs shocks. We show that increasing tax progression when taxation is initially progressive is harmful for steady state employment and output, and amplifies the sensitivity of macroeconomic variables to shocks. When taxation is initially proportional, increasing progression is beneficial for output and employment and dampens shock responses.

Wage stickiness and unemployment fluctuations: an alternative approach

28 p.

Gas laser discharge noise and its effect on the laser output

A large portion of the noise in the light output of a laser oscillator is associated with the noise in the laser discharge. The effect of the discharge noise on the laser output has been studied. The discharge noise has been explained through an ac equivalent circuit of the laser discharge tube.

The discharge noise corresponds to time-varying spatial fluctuations in the electron density, the inverted population density and the dielectric permittivity of the laser medium from their equilibrium values. These fluctuations cause a shift in the resonant frequencies of the laser cavity. When the fluctuation in the dielectric permittivity of the laser medium is a longitudinally traveling wave (corresponding to the case in which moving striations exist in the positive column of the laser discharge), the laser output is frequency modulated.

The discharge noise has been analyzed by representing the laser discharge by an equivalent circuit. An appropriate ac equivalent circuit of a laser discharge tube has been obtained by considering the frequency spectrum of the current response of the discharge tube to an ac voltage modulation. It consist of a series ρLC circuit, which represents the discharge region, in parallel with a capacitance C', which comes mainly from the stray wiring. The equivalent inductance and capacitance of the discharge region have been calculated from the values of the resonant frequencies measured on discharge currents, gas pressures and lengths of the positive column. The experimental data provide for a set of typical values and dependencies on the discharge parameters for the equivalent inductance and capacitance of a discharge under laser operating conditions. It has been concluded from the experimental data that the equivalent inductance originates mainly from the positive column while the equivalent capacitance is due to the discharge region other than the positive column.

The ac equivalent circuit of the laser discharge has been shown analytically and experimentally to be applicable to analyzing the internal discharge noise. Experimental measurements have been made on the frequency of moving striations in a laser discharge. Its experimental dependence on the discharge current agrees very well with the expected dependence obtained from an analysis of the circuit and the experimental data on the equivalent circuit elements. The agreement confirms the validity of representing a laser discharge tube by its ac equivalent circuit in analyzing the striation phenomenon and other low frequency noises. Data have also been obtained for the variation of the striation frequency with an externally-applied longitudinal magnetic field and the increase in frequency has been attributed to a decrease in the equivalent inductance of the laser discharge.