Sensitivity and out-of-sample error in continuous time data assimilation

Data assimilation refers to the problem of finding trajectories of a prescribed dynamical model in such a way that the output of the model (usually some function of the model states) follows a given time series of observations. Typically though, these two requirements cannot both be met at the same time–tracking the observations is not possible without the trajectory deviating from the proposed model equations, while adherence to the model requires deviations from the observations. Thus, data assimilation faces a trade-off. In this contribution, the sensitivity of the data assimilation with respect to perturbations in the observations is identified as the parameter which controls the trade-off. A relation between the sensitivity and the out-of-sample error is established, which allows the latter to be calculated under operational conditions. A minimum out-of-sample error is proposed as a criterion to set an appropriate sensitivity and to settle the discussed trade-off. Two approaches to data assimilation are considered, namely variational data assimilation and Newtonian nudging, also known as synchronization. Numerical examples demonstrate the feasibility of the approach.

The out-of-sample performance of stochastic methods in forecasting age-specific mortality rates /

"July 2008."

Getting the most out of multidisciplinary teams: a multi-sample study of team innovation in health care

Driven by the assumption that multidisciplinarity contributes positively to team outcomes teams are often deliberately staffed such that they comprise multiple disciplines. However, the diversity literature suggests that multidisciplinarity may not always benefit a team. This study departs from the notion of a linear, positive effect of multidisciplinarity and tests its contingency on the quality of team processes. It was assumed that multidisciplinarity only contributes to team outcomes if the quality of team processes is high. This hypothesis was tested in two independent samples of health care workers (N = 66 and N = 95 teams), using team innovation as the outcome variable. Results support the hypothesis for the quality of innovation, rather than the number of innovations introduced by the teams.

The distribution of the sample minimum-variance frontier

In this paper, we present a finite sample analysis of the sample minimum-variance frontier under the assumption that the returns are independent and multivariate normally distributed. We show that the sample minimum-variance frontier is a highly biased estimator of the population frontier, and we propose an improved estimator of the population frontier. In addition, we provide the exact distribution of the out-of-sample mean and variance of sample minimum-variance portfolios. This allows us to understand the impact of estimation error on the performance of in-sample optimal portfolios. Key Words: minimum-variance frontier; efficiency set constants; finite sample distribution

Carer perspectives of factors affecting placement trajectories of children in out-of-home care

Carers are at the frontline working with children in the care of the child protection system. This paper reports carer's views about key factors influencing the placement trajectories of children and young people living in out-of-home care in Queensland, Australia. The study sample included 21 foster and kinship carers with a minimum two-year experience in the carer role. Study data were from semi-structured telephone interviews in which carers shared their experiences of the factors impacting upon placement stability and placement movement. Carers' responses were analysed thematically. Data analysis yielded an overarching theme regarding placement trajectory: Carer engagement, and its three sub-themes; with the child; with the child protection system; and, with the caring role. Findings suggested that carer engagement and ‘fit’ are complex constructs that play critical influential roles in placement outcomes (stability or movement) for individual children in out-of-home care. It is argued that practice needs to be better grounded in these relational dynamics, and better aligned concerning the power differentials that exist.

Construing and Defining the Out of Control : Addiction in the Media 1968-2008.

The four scientific articles comprising this doctoral dissertation offer new information on the presentation and construction of addiction in the mass media during the period 1968 - 2008. Diachronic surveys as well as quantitative and qualitative content analyses were undertaken to discern trends during the period in question and to investigate underlying conceptions of the problems in contemporary media presentations. The research material for the first three articles consists of a sample of 200 texts from Finland s biggest daily newspaper, Helsingin Sanomat, from the period 1968 - 2006. The fourth study examines English-language tabloid material published on the Internet in 2005 - 2008. A number of principal trends are identified. In addition to a significant increase in addiction reporting over time, the study shows that an internalisation of addiction problems took place in the media presentations under study. The phenomenon is portrayed and tackled from within the problems themselves, often from the viewpoint of the individuals concerned. The tone becomes more personal, and technical and detailed accounts are more and more frequent. Secondly, the concept of addiction is broadened. This can be dated to the 1990s. The concept undergoes a conventionalisation: it is used more frequently in a manner that is not thought to require explanation. The word riippuvuus (the closest equivalent to addiction in Finnish) was adopted more commonly in the reporting at the same time, in the 1990s. Thirdly, the results highlight individual self-governance as a superordinate principle in contemporary descriptions of addiction. If the principal demarcation in earlier texts was between us and them , it is now focused primarily on the individual s competence and ability to govern the self, to restrain and master one's behaviour. Finally, in the fourth study investigating textual constructions of female celebrities (Amy Winehouse, Britney Spears and Kate Moss) in Internet tabloids, various relations and functions of addiction problems, intoxication, body and gender were observed to function as cultural symbols. Addiction becomes a sign, or a style, that represents different significations in relation to the main characters in the tabloid stories. Tabloids, as a genre, play an important role by introducing other images of the problems than those featured in mainstream media. The study is positioned within the framework of modernity theory and its views on the need for self-reflexivity and biographies as tools for the creation and definition of the self. Traditional institutions such as the church, occupation, family etc. no longer play an important role in self-definition. This circumstance creates a need for a culture conveying stories of success and failure in relation to which the individual can position their own behaviour and life content. I propose that addiction , as a theme in media reporting, resolves the conflict that emanates from the ambivalence between the accessibility and the individualisation of consumer society, on the one hand, and the problematic behavioural patterns (addictions) that they may induce, on the other.

Corroborative studies on the effects of sample variation on three macroinvertebrate biological assessment methods at different water quality states

In recent collaborative biological sampling exercises organised by the Nottingham Regional Laboratory of the Severn-Trent Water Authority, the effect of handnet sampling variation on the quality and usefulness of the data obtained has been questioned, especially when this data is transcribed into one or more of the commonly used biological methods of water quality assessment. This study investigates if this effect is constant at sites with similar typography but differing water quality states when the sampling method is standardized and carried out by a single operator. An argument is made for the use of a lowest common denominator approach to give a more consistent result and obviate the effect of sampling variation on these biological assessment methods.

Tales Out of School – The ‘Hidden Curriculum’ in National Schools in the North of Ireland During the Nineteenth and Early Twentieth Centuries

The paper addresses the possibility of the existence of a ‘hidden curriculum’ in nineteenth- and early twentieth-century National Schools by comparing working practices evident from an analysis of a sample of schools from two case study areas in the north of Ireland – Derry City and the rural area of Boho/Derrygonnelly in western County Fermanagh. The relationship between the placement of the school buildings and variations in their external appearances are examined in respect to their relationships with different churches. The possible significance of this relationship is scrutinised given that the primary aim of the National School system was joint secular education in a religiously divided society. Both the external and internal architecture of the buildings are also examined for the purposes of reconstructing aspects of the intentions and practices that governed their use. In particular, the relationship between allocated space and the categories of age and gender are studied by means of an access analysis of the floor plans of a representative sample of primary schools from both case study areas. Information derived from oral history accounts, archived material from the Public Record Office of Northern Ireland (PRONI) and school registers is used to supplement the findings obtained from the architectural analyses.

Drivers of in-group and out-of-group electronic word-of-mouth (eWOM)

Purpose – The purpose of this study is to address a recent call for additional research on electronic word-of-mouth (eWOM). In response to this call, this study draws on the social network paradigm and the uses and gratification theory (UGT) to propose and empirically test a conceptual framework of key drivers of two types of eWOM, namely in-group and out-of-group. Design/methodology/approach – The proposed model, which examines the impact of usage motivations on eWOM in-group and eWOM out-of-group, is tested in a sample of 302 internet users in Portugal. Findings – Results from the survey show that the different drivers (i.e. mood-enhancement, escapism, experiential learning and social interaction) vary in terms of their impact on the two different types of eWOM. Surprisingly, while results show a positive relationship between experiential learning and eWOM out-of-group, no relationship is found between experiential learning and eWOM in-group. Research limitations/implications – This is the first study investigating the drivers of both eWOM in-group and eWOM out-of-group. Additional research in this area will contribute to the development of a general theory of eWOM. Practical implications – By understanding the drivers of different eWOM types, this study provides guidance to marketing managers on how to allocate resources more efficiently in order to achieve the company's strategic objectives. Originality/value – No published study has investigated the determinants of these two types of eWOM. This is the first study offering empirical considerations of how the various drivers differentially impact eWOM in-group and eWOM out-of-group.

Drivers of in‐group and out‐of‐group electronic word‐of‐mouth (eWOM)

Purpose– The purpose of this study is to address a recent call for additional research on electronic word‐of‐mouth (eWOM). In response to this call, this study draws on the social network paradigm and the uses and gratification theory (UGT) to propose and empirically test a conceptual framework of key drivers of two types of eWOM, namely in‐group and out‐of‐group. Design/methodology/approach– The proposed model, which examines the impact of usage motivations on eWOM in‐group and eWOM out‐of‐group, is tested in a sample of 302 internet users in Portugal. Findings– Results from the survey show that the different drivers (i.e. mood‐enhancement, escapism, experiential learning and social interaction) vary in terms of their impact on the two different types of eWOM. Surprisingly, while results show a positive relationship between experiential learning and eWOM out‐of‐group, no relationship is found between experiential learning and eWOM in‐group. Research limitations/implications– This is the first study investigating the drivers of both eWOM in‐group and eWOM out‐of‐group. Additional research in this area will contribute to the development of a general theory of eWOM. Practical implications– By understanding the drivers of different eWOM types, this study provides guidance to marketing managers on how to allocate resources more efficiently in order to achieve the company's strategic objectives. Originality/value– No published study has investigated the determinants of these two types of eWOM. This is the first study offering empirical considerations of how the various drivers differentially impact eWOM in‐group and eWOM out‐of‐group.

Finite sample weighting of recursive forecast errors

This paper proposes and tests a new framework for weighting recursive out-of-sample prediction errors according to their corresponding levels of in-sample estimation uncertainty. In essence, we show how to use the maximum possible amount of information from the sample in the evaluation of the prediction accuracy, by commencing the forecasts at the earliest opportunity and weighting the prediction errors. Via a Monte Carlo study, we demonstrate that the proposed framework selects the correct model from a set of candidate models considerably more often than the existing standard approach when only a small sample is available. We also show that the proposed weighting approaches result in tests of equal predictive accuracy that have much better sizes than the standard approach. An application to an exchange rate dataset highlights relevant differences in the results of tests of predictive accuracy based on the standard approach versus the framework proposed in this paper.

Plasmodium falciparum Accompanied the Human Expansion out of Africa

Plasmodium falciparum is distributed throughout the tropics and is responsible for an estimated 230 million cases of malaria every year, with a further 1.4 billion people at risk of infection [1-3]. Little is known about the genetic makeup of P. falciparum populations, despite variation in genetic diversity being a key factor in morbidity, mortality, and the success of malaria control initiatives. Here we analyze a worldwide sample of 519 P. falciparum isolates sequenced for two housekeeping genes (63 single nucleotide polymorphisms from around 5000 nucleotides per isolate). We observe a strong negative correlation between within-population genetic diversity and geographic distance from sub-Saharan Africa (R(2) = 0.95) over Africa, Asia, and Oceania. In contrast, regional variation in transmission intensity seems to have had a negligible impact on the distribution of genetic diversity. The striking geographic patterns of isolation by distance observed in P. falciparum mirror the ones previously documented in humans [4-7] and point to a joint sub-Saharan African origin between the parasite and its host. Age estimates for the expansion of P. falciparum further support that anatomically modern humans were infected prior to their exit out of Africa and carried the parasite along during their colonization of the world.

Flying the coop : why is the move out of home proving unsustainable?

Changing social trends indicate that more young Australians are electing to live at home longer. Residing in the parental home is the most common mode of living for those aged in their 20s, with recent data indicating more than 30 per cent decisively remain in this arrangement with their parents.

While there are obviously still those who decide to move out, this housing arrangement seems to be proving unsustainable; many young adults are returning home to reside with their parents after time spent on their own in a trend increasingly referred to as the ‘boomerang’ effect.

This paper reviews the available literature on young adults’ living arrangements, identifying those factors implicated both in the leaving home process and the likelihood a young adult will return home after previously moving out. In highlighting how much of this earlier research has relied on the use of statistical methods, the paper aims to justify the need for the proposed study- a contemporary exploration of generation Y Australians’ experiences of home returning.

The study, guided by an ecological theoretical perspective, will utilise a qualitative methodology to investigate the reasons why young adults are experiencing difficulty sustaining their move to independent living. In-depth interviews will be conducted in Melbourne with young adults aged between 20 and 30 years who currently reside in the parental home after living independently for four months or more. It is anticipated the study sample will include both males and females who are currently engaged in, or have previously completed, tertiary study.

These interviews will be analysed and through the emergent themes, will provide a clearer insight into the ‘boomerang’ generation- a group of young adults who will become increasingly more common in light of the current uncertainty surrounding finances, employment and housing markets. The implications of this research will therefore be significant for those concerned with the future housing decisions of Australian society.

Nitriding in cathodic cage of stainless steel AISI 316: influence of sample position

R.R.M. de Sousa et al. Nitriding in cathodic cage of stainless steel AISI 316: Influence of sample position. Vacuum, [s.l.], n.83, 2009. Disponivel em: . Acesso em: 04 out.2010.