Unusual eigenvalue spectrum and relaxation in the Levy-Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process

We consider the rates of relaxation of a particle in a harmonic well, subject to Levy noise characterized by its Levy index mu. Using the propagator for this Levy-Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process (LOUP), we show that the eigenvalue spectrum of the associated Fokker-Planck operator has the form (n + m mu)nu where nu is the force constant characterizing the well, and n, m is an element of N. If mu is irrational, the eigenvalues are all nondegenerate, but rational mu can lead to degeneracy. The maximum degeneracy is shown to be 2. The left eigenfunctions of the fractional Fokker-Planck operator are very simple while the right eigenfunctions may be obtained from the lowest eigenfunction by a combination of two different step-up operators. Further, we find that the acceptable eigenfunctions should have the asymptotic behavior vertical bar x vertical bar(-n1-n2 mu) as vertical bar x vertical bar -> infinity, with n(1) and n(2) being positive integers, though this condition alone is not enough to identify them uniquely. We also assert that the rates of relaxation of LOUP are determined by the eigenvalues of the associated fractional Fokker-Planck operator and do not depend on the initial state if the moments of the initial distribution are all finite. If the initial distribution has fat tails, for which the higher moments diverge, one can have nonspectral relaxation, as pointed out by Toenjes et al. Phys. Rev. Lett. 110, 150602 (2013)].

Quasi-Likelihood Estimation for Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Diffusion Observed at Random Time Points

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 60J60, 62M99.

The Ornstein-Uhlenbeck semigroup in exterior domains

Wood, Ian; Geissert, M.; Heck, H.; Hieber, M., (2005) 'The Ornstein-Uhlenbeck semigroup in exterior domains', Archiv der Mathematik 86 pp.554-562 RAE2008

A cautionary note on the use of Ornstein Uhlenbeck models in macroevolutionary studies

Phylogenetic comparative methods are increasingly used to give new insights into the dynamics of trait evolution in deep time. For continuous traits the core of these methods is a suite of models that attempt to capture evolutionary patterns by extending the Brownian constant variance model. However, the properties of these models are often poorly understood, which can lead to the misinterpretation of results. Here we focus on one of these models – the Ornstein Uhlenbeck (OU) model. We show that the OU model is frequently incorrectly favoured over simpler models when using Likelihood ratio tests, and that many studies fitting this model use datasets that are small and prone to this problem. We also show that very small amounts of error in datasets can have profound effects on the inferences derived from OU models. Our results suggest that simulating fitted models and comparing with empirical results is critical when fitting OU and other extensions of the Brownian model. We conclude by making recommendations for best practice in fitting OU models in phylogenetic comparative analyses, and for interpreting the parameters of the OU model.

Pair trading in Bovespa with a quantitative approach: cointegration, Ornstein-Uhlenbeck equation and Kelly criterion.

Pair trading is an old and well-known technique among traders. In this paper, we discuss an important element not commonly debated in Brazil: the cointegration between pairs, which would guarantee the spread stability. We run the Dickey-Fuller test to check cointegration, and then compare the results with non-cointegrated pairs. We found that the Sharpe ratio of cointegrated pairs is greater than the non-cointegrated. We also use the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck equation in order to calculate the half-life of the pairs. Again, this improves their performance. Last, we use the leverage suggested by Kelly Formula, once again improving the results.

Ornstein-Uhlenbeck operator in convex domains of Banach spaces

Studiamo l'operatore di Ornstein-Uhlenbeck e il semigruppo di Ornstein-Uhlenbeck in un sottoinsieme aperto convesso $\Omega$ di uno spazio di Banach separabile $X$ dotato di una misura Gaussiana centrata non degnere $\gamma$. In particolare dimostriamo la disuguaglianza di Sobolev logaritmica e la disuguaglianza di Poincaré, e grazie a queste disuguaglianze deduciamo le proprietà spettrali dell'operatore di Ornstein-Uhlenbeck. Inoltre studiamo l'equazione ellittica $\lambdau+L^{\Omega}u=f$ in $\Omega$, dove $L^\Omega$ è l'operatore di Ornstein-Uhlenbeck. Dimostriamo che per $\lambda>0$ e $f\in L^2(\Omega,\gamma)$ la soluzione debole $u$ appartiene allo spazio di Sobolev $W^{2,2}(\Omega,\gamma)$. Inoltre dimostriamo che $u$ soddisfa la condizione di Neumann nel senso di tracce al bordo di $\Omega$. Questo viene fatto finita approssimazione dimensionale.

Gaussian process approximations of stochastic differential equations

Stochastic differential equations arise naturally in a range of contexts, from financial to environmental modeling. Current solution methods are limited in their representation of the posterior process in the presence of data. In this work, we present a novel Gaussian process approximation to the posterior measure over paths for a general class of stochastic differential equations in the presence of observations. The method is applied to two simple problems: the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, of which the exact solution is known and can be compared to, and the double-well system, for which standard approaches such as the ensemble Kalman smoother fail to provide a satisfactory result. Experiments show that our variational approximation is viable and that the results are very promising as the variational approximate solution outperforms standard Gaussian process regression for non-Gaussian Markov processes.

A closed-form approximation for pricing temperature-based weather derivatives

This paper develops analytical distributions of temperature indices on which temperature derivatives are written. If the deviations of daily temperatures from their expected values are modelled as an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process with timevarying variance, then the distributions of the temperature index on which the derivative is written is the sum of truncated, correlated Gaussian deviates. The key result of this paper is to provide an analytical approximation to the distribution of this sum, thus allowing the accurate computation of payoffs without the need for any simulation. A data set comprising average daily temperature spanning over a hundred years for four Australian cities is used to demonstrate the efficacy of this approach for estimating the payoffs to temperature derivatives. It is demonstrated that expected payoffs computed directly from historical records are a particularly poor approach to the problem when there are trends in underlying average daily temperature. It is shown that the proposed analytical approach is superior to historical pricing.

A mean-reverting stochastic model for the political business cycle

In this article, we look at the political business cycle problem through the lens of uncertainty. The feedback control used by us is the famous NKPC with stochasticity and wage rigidities. We extend the New Keynesian Phillips Curve model to the continuous time stochastic set up with an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. We minimize relevant expected quadratic cost by solving the corresponding Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation. The basic intuition of the classical model is qualitatively carried forward in our set up but uncertainty also plays an important role in determining the optimal trajectory of the voter support function. The internal variability of the system acts as a base shifter for the support function in the risk neutral case. The role of uncertainty is even more prominent in the risk averse case where all the shape parameters are directly dependent on variability. Thus, in this case variability controls both the rates of change as well as the base shift parameters. To gain more insight we have also studied the model when the coefficients are time invariant and studied numerical solutions. The close relationship between the unemployment rate and the support function for the incumbent party is highlighted. The role of uncertainty in creating sampling fluctuation in this set up, possibly towards apparently anomalous results, is also explored.

Optimal guidance of low-thrust interplanetary space vehicles

The low-thrust guidance problem is defined as the minimum terminal variance (MTV) control of a space vehicle subjected to random perturbations of its trajectory. To accomplish this control task, only bounded thrust level and thrust angle deviations are allowed, and these must be calculated based solely on the information gained from noisy, partial observations of the state. In order to establish the validity of various approximations, the problem is first investigated under the idealized conditions of perfect state information and negligible dynamic errors. To check each approximate model, an algorithm is developed to facilitate the computation of the open loop trajectories for the nonlinear bang-bang system. Using the results of this phase in conjunction with the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process as a model for the random inputs to the system, the MTV guidance problem is reformulated as a stochastic, bang-bang, optimal control problem. Since a complete analytic solution seems to be unattainable, asymptotic solutions are developed by numerical methods. However, it is shown analytically that a Kalman filter in cascade with an appropriate nonlinear MTV controller is an optimal configuration. The resulting system is simulated using the Monte Carlo technique and is compared to other guidance schemes of current interest.