Does direct cash flow presentation help in predicting future operating cash flow?

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Does direct cash flow presentation help in predicting future operating cash flow?

Research literature and regulators are unconditional in pointing the disclosure of operating cash flow through direct method a section of unique information. Besides the intuitive facet, it is also consistent in forecasting future operating cash flows and a cohesive piece to financial statement puzzle. Bearing this in mind, I produce an analysis on the usefulness and predictive ability on the disclosure of gross cash receipts and payments over the disclosure of reconciliation between net income and accruals for two markets with special features, Portugal and Spain. Results validate the usefulness of direct method format in predicting future operating cash flow. Key

Essays on the treatment of cash flows under stochastic interest rates

Abstract This paper shows how to calculate recursively the moments of the accumulated and discounted value of cash flows when the instantaneous rates of return follow a conditional ARMA process with normally distributed innovations. We investigate various moment based approaches to approximate the distribution of the accumulated value of cash flows and we assess their performance through stochastic Monte-Carlo simulations. We discuss the potential use in insurance and especially in the context of Asset-Liability Management of pension funds.

A nettó jelenérték maximalizálása erőforrás-korlátos projektekben - egy új harmóniakereső metaheurisztika (A harmony search metaheuristic for the resourceconstrained project scheduling problem with discounted cash flows)

Ebben a tanulmányban a szerző egy új harmóniakereső metaheurisztikát mutat be, amely a minimális időtartamú erőforrás-korlátos ütemezések halmazán a projekt nettó jelenértékét maximalizálja. Az optimális ütemezés elméletileg két egész értékű (nulla-egy típusú) programozási feladat megoldását jelenti, ahol az első lépésben meghatározzuk a minimális időtartamú erőforrás-korlátos ütemezések időtartamát, majd a második lépésben az optimális időtartamot feltételként kezelve megoldjuk a nettó jelenérték maximalizálási problémát minimális időtartamú erőforrás-korlátos ütemezések halmazán. A probléma NP-hard jellege miatt az egzakt megoldás elfogadható idő alatt csak kisméretű projektek esetében képzelhető el. A bemutatandó metaheurisztika a Csébfalvi (2007) által a minimális időtartamú erőforrás-korlátos ütemezések időtartamának meghatározására és a tevékenységek ennek megfelelő ütemezésére kifejlesztett harmóniakereső metaheurisztika továbbfejlesztése, amely az erőforrás-felhasználási konfliktusokat elsőbbségi kapcsolatok beépítésével oldja fel. Az ajánlott metaheurisztika hatékonyságának és életképességének szemléltetésére számítási eredményeket adunk a jól ismert és népszerű PSPLIB tesztkönyvtár J30 részhalmazán futtatva. Az egzakt megoldás generálásához egy korszerű MILP-szoftvert (CPLEX) alkalmaztunk. _______________ This paper presents a harmony search metaheuristic for the resource-constrained project scheduling problem with discounted cash flows. In the proposed approach, a resource-constrained project is characterized by its „best” schedule, where best means a makespan minimal resource constrained schedule for which the net present value (NPV) measure is maximal. Theoretically the optimal schedule searching process is formulated as a twophase mixed integer linear programming (MILP) problem, which can be solved for small-scale projects in reasonable time. The applied metaheuristic is based on the "conflict repairing" version of the "Sounds of Silence" harmony search metaheuristic developed by Csébfalvi (2007) for the resource-constrained project scheduling problem (RCPSP). In order to illustrate the essence and viability of the proposed harmony search metaheuristic, we present computational results for a J30 subset from the well-known and popular PSPLIB. To generate the exact solutions a state-of-the-art MILP solver (CPLEX) was used.

Criação de valor em fusões e aquisições horizontais

O aumento verificado nos últimos anos em fusões e aquisições (F&A) resulta da opção dos gestores para fazer face ao aumento da pressão competitiva e ou à necessidade de crescimento rápido. A literatura sobre os efeitos dos processos de F&A é diversificada e as conclusões são contraditórias. Neste trabalho pretendemos verificar se o processo de F&A se traduz na criação de valor para o acionista da empresa adquirente. Como métrica de avaliação utilizamos o método de análise dos fluxos de caixa atualizados ou o Discounted Cash-Flow (DCF). Para o efeito efetuamos um estudo de caso que vai incidir sobre uma empresa seguradora portuguesa – A Lusitania Companhia de Seguros, S.A. – que recentemente adquiriu, por fusão por incorporação, a Real Seguros, S.A. Efetuamos uma análise de natureza quantitativa através dos dados do relatório e contas e encontramos evidência de que o desempenho diminuiu após a transação.

Satisfaction as a predictor of future performance:a replication

Since the introduction of the Net Promoter concept there has been a vivid and ongoing debate among academics and practitioners about the performance of the Net Promoter Score (NPS) in comparison to other customer metrics, such as customer satisfaction, to predict company growth rates. We report results from a study using data from customers and firms in the Netherlands on the relationship between different satisfaction and loyalty metrics as well as the NPS with sales revenue growth, gross margins and net operating cash flows. We find that all metrics perform equally well in predicting current gross margins and current sales revenue growth and equally poor for predicting future sales growth and gross margins as well as current and future net cash flows. The NPS is neither superior nor inferior to other metrics. Taken together, our study suggests that the predictive capability of customer metrics, such as NPS, for future company growth rates is limited. © 2013 Elsevier B.V.

Private Club Financial Performance

This article reveals the median financial results for the club industry for 2011 using 24 financial ratios. The results are based on the submission of balance sheet and selected income statement numbers from 80 clubs. The ratios are reported as median results for the entire sample as well as the median results for the top and low performing clubs delineated by return on assets. The biggest differences between the two extreme groups of clubs are (1) average collection period, (2) operating cash flows to current liabilities and long-term debt, (3) fines interest earned, (4) fixed charge coverage ratio, (5) food and beverage inventory turnovers, (6) profit margin, (7) return on assets, (8) operating efficiency ratio, (9) labor cost percentage.

The real economic effects of cross-delistingfrom the united states: evidence on post-operating performance, financial constraints and stock crash risk

Tese de Doutoramento em Ciências Empresariais.

Foreign exchange exposure management in a fuel procurement company operating in the commodity markets

Fluctuating commodity prices, foreign exchange rates and interest rates are causing changes in cash flows, market value and the companies’ profit. Most of the commodities are quoted in US dollar. Companies with non-dollar accounting face a double risk in the form of the commodity price risk and foreign exchange risk. The objective of this Master’s thesis is to find out how companies under commodity should manage foreign exchange exposure. The theoretical literature is based on foreign exchange risk, commodity risk and foreign exchange exposure management. The empirical research is done by using constructive modelling of a case company in the oil industry. The exposure is model with foreign exchange net cash flow and net working capital. First, the factors affecting foreign exchange exposure in case company are analyzed, then a model of foreign exchange exposure is created. Finally, the models are compared and the most suitable method is defined. According to the literature, foreign exchange exposure is the foreign exchange net cash flow. However, the results of the study show that foreign exchange risk can be managed also with net working capital. When the purchases, sales and storage are under foreign exchange risk, the best way to manage foreign exchange exposure is with combined net cash flow and net working capital method. The foreign exchange risk policy of the company defines the appropriate way to manage foreign exchange risk.

A utilidade da demonstração de fluxos de caixa na ótica dos Técnicos Oficiais de contas

O tema Fluxos de Caixa tem cada vez mais importância nas empresas e no relato financeiro das mesmas. Com a entrada em vigor do Sistema de Normalização Contabilística em 2010, tornou-se obrigatória a apresentação da Demonstração de Fluxos de Caixa nas Demonstrações Financeiras das empresas que adotem o regime geral. Segundo a Norma Contabilística e de Relato Financeiro 2 – Demonstração de Fluxos de Caixa, nos seus parágrafos 7 e 8, a Demonstração de Fluxos de Caixa “deve relatar os fluxos de caixa durante o período classificados por atividades operacionais, de investimento e de financiamento. A classificação por atividades proporciona informação que permite aos utentes determinar o impacto dessas atividades na posição financeira da entidade e nas quantias de caixa e seus equivalentes”. Possibilita a avaliação das empresas, a deteção de sinais de fragilidade e ajuda a decidir qual o melhor caminho a seguir. O objetivo central deste trabalho consiste em evidenciar a importância e utilidade da Demonstração de Fluxos de Caixa para os profissionais de contabilidade e para os utilizadores da informação financeira, na ótica dos Técnicos Oficiais de Contas, e será alcançado através de um questionário a este grupo de profissionais. Os resultados obtidos permitiram-nos aferir que os Técnicos Oficiais de Contas consideram esta Demonstração Financeira importante e atribuem-lhe a utilidade que efetivamente representa, isto é, consideram-na uma peça indispensável para a gestão de tesouraria como para a gestão operacional, financeira ou de investimentos de qualquer empresa. Contudo, na sua opinião, esta Demonstração é ainda pouco valorizada pelos utilizadores da informação financeira.

The international expansion strategy of Striyah in Poland

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Reporting cash flow evidence from campanies listed in the Euronext Lisbon

Based on the 2013 and 2014 consolidated statements of cash flows of companies listed in Euronext Lisbon, this Work Project analyses the cash flow disclosures, namely if they are in accordance with International Accounting Standards 7, specifically the format, the choice of classification interests, dividends paid and received and the composition of cash and cash equivalents. Additionally, quality of income ratio is analyzed due to its importance for users of financial statements. The results show evidence of uniformity and consistency in the use of the direct method for reporting operational activities in both years, but there are some differences regarding the disclosure of interests and dividends, paid and received, respectively.

Market rewards to patterns on increasing earnings: do cash flow patterns, accruals manipulation and real activities manipulation matter?

This study explores whether firms have differential price-earnings multiples associated with their means of achieving a sequential pattern of increasing positive earnings. Our main findings show that market participants assign higher price-earnings multiples to firms when their pattern of increasing earnings is supported by the same pattern of increasing cash flows. Market participants assign lower price-earnings multiples to firms suspect of having engaged in accrual-based earnings management, sales manipulation, and overproduction to achieve the earnings pattern. We find, however, that market participants do not penalize firms suspect of having achieved the earnings pattern through the opportunistic reduction of discretionary expenses.

The Effectiveness of Currency Hedging Strategies. Case: Imatra Boards Business Unit of Stora Enso Corp.

Tutkimus tarkastelee vaihtoehtoisia termiinisuojaustrategioita metsäteollisuuden alan tulosyksikössä. Jälkitestauksen tarkoituksena on arvioida vaihtoehtoisten strategioiden tuloksellisuutta suojata case-yrityksen kassavirtoja seuraavan kolmen arviointikriteerin avulla: yksittäisten vieraan valuutan määräisten kassavirtojen vaihtelu; koko vieraan valuutan määräisen kassavirran vaihtelu; suojausvoitot ja -tappiot. Tutkimuksen teoreettinen viitekehys tarkastelee yrityksen päätöksentekoa, valuuttariskien suojausprosessia sekä esittelee yrityksen vaihtoehtoisia suojausstrategioita. Tutkimuksen empiirinen aineisto pohjautuu case- yrityksen historiallisiin myyntilukuihin ja on kerätty yrityksen tietojärjestelmästä. Muu tutkimuksessa käytetty dataon kerätty eri tietokannoista. Tutkimuksen tulokset osoittavat, että suojaaminen vähentää kassavirtojen vaihtelua. Suojaamisen taloudelliset tulokset ovat kuitenkin erittäin riippuvaisia valitusta suojausstrategiasta, joka voi johtaa merkittäviin suojausvoittoihin, mutta yhtä hyvin myos merkittäviin tappioihin. Johdon näkemykset ja riskitoleranssi määrittelevät mitä strategiaa yrityksessä tullaan viime kädessä noudattamaan.

Pienyrityksen arvonmäärityksen erityispiirteitä

Tutkielmassa tarkastellaan listaamattoman pienyrityksen arvonmääritystä ja sen sisältöä. Tutkielman tavoitteena oli selvittää pk-yrityksen arvonmäärityksen erityispiirteitä ja eroja suuriin julkisiin yrityksiin sekä tutkia näiden erojen vaikutusta arvonmääritysprosessiin. Tutkielman lähestymistapa on teoreettinen ja tutkielma toteutettiin kirjallisuustutkimuksena. Tutkimusote on käsiteanalyyttinen. Tutkimuksessa havaittiin, että listaamattoman pienyrityksen erityispiirteitä ovat saatavissa olevan taloudellisen informaation laatu ja määrä, tulevaisuuteen liittyvä suurempi epävarmuus sekä omistuksen heikko likvidisyys. Pienyrityksiin liittyvät riskit ovat myös suuremmat ja niiden arviointi on vaikeampaa. Lisäksi pienyrityksen rahoitus eroaa suurista yrityksistä. Näiden tekijöiden vaikutus eri menetelmillä laskettuun yrityksen arvoon on negatiivinen. Osaamisella ja aineettomalla pääomalla on suuri vaikutus pienyrityksien arvoon ja tämä johtaa usein arvostuksen subjektiivisuuteen. Lähtökohtaisesti, pienen ja keskisuuren, kuten suurenkin yrityksen arvo perustuu tulevaisuuden tuottoihin omistajille. Toimintahistorian ja taloudellisen informaation vähäisyydestä johtuen arvostuksessa käytetään varsin usein hyvin yksinkertaisia tapoja ja menetelmiä. Perinteiset arvonmääritysmenetelmät ovat käyttökelpoisia myös pienyritysten kohdalla, kunhan niiden pohjana olevat parametrit, arvonmäärityksen tarkoitus ja tilanne sekä kohteen ominaispiirteet ymmärretään oikein. Pienyritysten arvomääritys on haastavaa ja asettaa suuria vaatimuksia suorittajan ammattitaidolle.