Improving Analytical Travel Time Estimation for Transportation Planning Models

This dissertation aimed to improve travel time estimation for the purpose of transportation planning by developing a travel time estimation method that incorporates the effects of signal timing plans, which were difficult to consider in planning models. For this purpose, an analytical model has been developed. The model parameters were calibrated based on data from CORSIM microscopic simulation, with signal timing plans optimized using the TRANSYT-7F software. Independent variables in the model are link length, free-flow speed, and traffic volumes from the competing turning movements. The developed model has three advantages compared to traditional link-based or node-based models. First, the model considers the influence of signal timing plans for a variety of traffic volume combinations without requiring signal timing information as input. Second, the model describes the non-uniform spatial distribution of delay along a link, this being able to estimate the impacts of queues at different upstream locations of an intersection and attribute delays to a subject link and upstream link. Third, the model shows promise of improving the accuracy of travel time prediction. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of the model is 13% for a set of field data from Minnesota Department of Transportation (MDOT); this is close to the MAPE of uniform delay in the HCM 2000 method (11%). The HCM is the industrial accepted analytical model in the existing literature, but it requires signal timing information as input for calculating delays. The developed model also outperforms the HCM 2000 method for a set of Miami-Dade County data that represent congested traffic conditions, with a MAPE of 29%, compared to 31% of the HCM 2000 method. The advantages of the proposed model make it feasible for application to a large network without the burden of signal timing input, while improving the accuracy of travel time estimation. An assignment model with the developed travel time estimation method has been implemented in a South Florida planning model, which improved assignment results.

Integration der strategischen Planung in die Haushaltsplanung einer Kommune

Eine effektive, effiziente und wirkungsorientierte kommunalpolitische Arbeit stellt hohe Anforderungen an Politik und Verwaltung. Trotz zahlreicher erfolgsversprechender Ansätze ist der aktuelle Status quo ernüchternd. Schwerpunkt der Dissertation ist deshalb die Entwicklung eines praxistauglichen Konzeptes zur Integration der strategischen Planung in die Haushaltsplanung einer Kommune mit dem Ziel einer nachhaltigen Verbesserung der strategischen Steuerung. Eine ergänzende ökonomische Funktionsanalyse von beteiligten Rechtsfiguren erweitert dabei die klassisch wirtschaftstheoretische Betrachtungsweise um sozialwissenschaftliche Aspekte, die im Zusammenspiel von Institutionen eine wichtige Rolle spielen. Der konzipierte Ansatz kommt, durch die Fokussierung auf das öffentliche Interesse, einem partizipativen und transparenten Idealbild von Steuerung im kommunalen Bereich auf der Basis der New Public Management Bewegung sehr nahe und könnte helfen der verstärkt festzustellenden Politikverdrossenheit entgegen zu wirken.

Prioritization of Policies: A Prototype Model of a Flowchart Method

This paper builds a prototype model of how to prioritize policies by using a flowchart. We presented the following six steps to decide priorities of policies: Step 1 is to attain the social subsistence level (primary education, health care, and food sufficiency); Step 2 is to attain macroeconomic stability; Step 3 is to liberalize the economy by structural adjustment programs; Step 4 is capacity building specific to a growth strategy by facilitating sufficient infrastructure (physical infrastructure and institutions); Step 5 is to initiate a growth strategy; and Step 6 is to narrow income inequalities. We illustrated the effectiveness of our "flowchart method" in case studies of Morocco, Laos, Vietnam, and China. The first priority of reforms in Morocco was given to social sectors of primary education and health care, particularly in the rural areas at Step 1. Laos should not put much emphasis on growth strategy before educational reform, attainment of macroeconomic stability, and institutional capacity building at Steps 1, 2, and 3. Vietnam can focus on reforming the state-run enterprises and developing the stock markets at Step 5 of growth strategies. We found that we should apply our flowchart method to China not nation-wide but province-wide.

Infrastructure (Rural Road) Development and Poverty Alleviation in Lao PDR

Rural road in Lao PDR defined as connecting road from village to main road, where it will lead them to market and access to other economic and social service facilities. However, due to mostly rural people accustom with subsistence farming, connecting road seems less important for rural people as their main farming produce is for own consumption rather than markets. After the introduction and implementation of New Economic Mechanism (NEM) since 1986, many rural villages have gradually developed and integrated into market system where people have significantly changed their livelihood with a better system. This progress has significantly contributed in improving income earning of people, better living standard and reduce poverty. The paper aims to illustrate the significant of rural road as connecting road from village to markets or a market access approach of farm produces. It also demonstrates through which approach, rural farmers/people could improve their income earning, develop their farming system, living standard and reduce poverty.

Adaptability of nonlinear equilibrum models to central planning

Linear multisectoral models have for long been applied in the Hungarian national economic planning. Price-quantity correspondences and interaction, however, cannot easily be taken into account in the traditional linear framework. Computable general equilibrium modelers in the West have developed techniques which use extensively price-quantity interdependences. However, since they are usually presented with the controversial strict neoclassical interpretation, the possibility of their adaptation to socialist planning models has been concaled. This paper reflects on some results of a research investigating the possible adaptation of eqailibrium modeling techniques to central planning models.

Integrated planning of electric power distribution networks

In this work, a heuristic model for integrated planning of primary distribution network and secondary distribution circuits is proposed. A Tabu Search (TS) algorithm is employed to solve the planning of primary distribution networks. Evolutionary Algorithms (EA) are used to solve the planning model of secondary networks. The planning integration of both networks is carried out by means a constructive heuristic taking into account a set of integration alternatives between these networks. These integration alternatives are treated in a hierarchical way. The planning of primary networks and secondary distribution circuits is carried out based on assessment of the effects of the alternative solutions in the expansion costs of both networks simultaneously. In order to evaluate this methodology, tests were performed for a real-life distribution system taking into account the primary and secondary networks.

Scenario planning at business unit level

The scenario planning literature is focused on corporate level interventions. There is a general consensus on the method, but there is little debate about the stages involved in building and using the scenarios. This article presents a case study of a scenario planning intervention, which was conducted at a business unit of the British division of one of the largest beauty and cosmetic products multinationals. The method adopted in this case study has some fundamental differences to the existing models used at corporate level. This research is based on the principles of autoethnography, since its purpose is to present self-critical reflections, enhanced by reflective and reflexive conversations on a scenario planning method used at business unit level. The critical reflections concern a series of critical incidents which distinguish this method from existing intuitive logic scenario planning models which are used at corporate level planning. Ultimately this article contributes to the scenario planning method literature by providing insights into its practice at business unit level. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd.

Petroleum pipeline construction planning:a conceptual framework

A cross-country pipeline construction project is exposed to an uncertain environment due to its enormous size (physical, manpower requirement and financial value), complexity in design technology and involvement of external factors. These uncertainties can lead to several changes in project scope during the process of project execution. Unless the changes are properly controlled, the time, cost and quality goals of the project may never be achieved. A methodology is proposed for project control through risk analysis, contingency allocation and hierarchical planning models. Risk analysis is carried out through the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) due to the subjective nature of risks in construction projects. The results of risk analysis are used to determine the logical contingency for project control with the application of probability theory. Ultimate project control is carried out by hierarchical planning model which enables decision makers to take vital decisions during the changing environment of the construction period. Goal programming (GP), a multiple criteria decision-making technique, is proposed for model formulation because of its flexibility and priority-base structure. The project is planned hierarchically in three levels—project, work package and activity. GP is applied separately at each level. Decision variables of each model are different planning parameters of the project. In this study, models are formulated from the owner's perspective and its effectiveness in project control is demonstrated.

Planning and flexible operation of storage systems in power grids: from transmission to distribution networks

The first part of the thesis has been devoted to the transmission planning with high penetration of renewable energy sources. Both stationary and transportable battery energy storage (BES, BEST) systems have been considered in the planning model, so to obtain the optimal set of BES, BEST and transmission lines that minimizes the total cost in a power network. First, a coordinated expansion planning model with fixed transportation cost for BEST devices has been presented; then, the model has been extended to a planning formulation with a distance-dependent transportation cost for the BEST units, and its tractability has been proved through a case study based on a 190-bus test system. The second part of this thesis is then devoted to the analysis of planning and management of renewable energy communities (RECs). Initially, the planning of photovoltaic and BES systems in a REC with an incentive-based remuneration scheme according to the Italian regulatory framework has been analysed, and two planning models, according to a single-stage, or a multi-stage approach, have been proposed in order to provide the optimal set of BES and PV systems allowing to achieve the minimum energy procurement cost in a given REC. Further, the second part of this thesis is devoted to the study of the day-ahead scheduling of resources in renewable energy communities, by considering two types of REC. The first one, which we will refer to as “cooperative community”, allows direct energy transactions between members of the REC; the second type of REC considered, which we shall refer to as “incentive-based”, does not allow direct transactions between members but includes economic revenues for the community shared energy, according to the Italian regulation framework. Moreover, dispatchable renewable energy generation has been considered by including producers equipped with biogas power plants in the community.

O planeamento plurianual em Educação Física: estudo multicaso em escolas de Lisboa

RESUMO:No presente estudo discute-se o problema do Planeamento Plurianual em Educação Física, numa perspectiva de articulação curricular vertical entre Escolas e ciclos de ensino. Realizou-se um estudo multicaso em cinco Escolas da zona de Lisboa, e foram entrevistados seis especialistas na área da Educação Física em Portugal para descrever e interpretar o problema. Ficam algumas sugestões, a seguir em futuros modelos de planeamento em Educação Física Escolar, e uma caracterização da articulação curricular vertical existente nas Escolas estudadas. ABSTRACT: In this study, we discuss Multy Year Planning in Physical Education from the perspective of vertical curricular articulation among schools and education levels. We conducted a multi case study in five schools in the Lisbon area, and six were interviewed experts in the field of Physical Education in Portugal to describe and explain the problem. Stay a few suggestions, for the future planning models in physical education, and a characterization of existing vertical curricular in schools studied.

Simulation model for driving dynamics, energy use and power supply

Dissertação para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Electrotécnica Ramo de Energia

Estudo das necessidades de médicos especialistas na Região Norte de Portugal

Dissertação de mestrado em Engenharia Industrial