Understanding Uncertainties in Non-Linear Population Trajectories: A Bayesian Semi-Parametric Hierarchical Approach to Large-Scale Surveys of Coral Cover

Recently, attempts to improve decision making in species management have focussed on uncertainties associated with modelling temporal fluctuations in populations. Reducing model uncertainty is challenging; while larger samples improve estimation of species trajectories and reduce statistical errors, they typically amplify variability in observed trajectories. In particular, traditional modelling approaches aimed at estimating population trajectories usually do not account well for nonlinearities and uncertainties associated with multi-scale observations characteristic of large spatio-temporal surveys. We present a Bayesian semi-parametric hierarchical model for simultaneously quantifying uncertainties associated with model structure and parameters, and scale-specific variability over time. We estimate uncertainty across a four-tiered spatial hierarchy of coral cover from the Great Barrier Reef. Coral variability is well described; however, our results show that, in the absence of additional model specifications, conclusions regarding coral trajectories become highly uncertain when considering multiple reefs, suggesting that management should focus more at the scale of individual reefs. The approach presented facilitates the description and estimation of population trajectories and associated uncertainties when variability cannot be attributed to specific causes and origins. We argue that our model can unlock value contained in large-scale datasets, provide guidance for understanding sources of uncertainty, and support better informed decision making

I. Non-linear effects in a self-consistent calculation of SU_3 symmetry breaking in strong interaction coupling constants. II. Direct-channel reggeization of strong interaction scattering amplitudes

The thesis is divided into two parts. Part I generalizes a self-consistent calculation of residue shifts from SU₃ symmetry, originally performed by Dashen, Dothan, Frautschi, and Sharp, to include the effects of non-linear terms. Residue factorizability is used to transform an overdetermined set of equations into a variational problem, which is designed to take advantage of the redundancy of the mathematical system. The solution of this problem automatically satisfies the requirement of factorizability and comes close to satisfying all the original equations.

Part II investigates some consequences of direct channel Regge poles and treats the problem of relating Reggeized partial wave expansions made in different reaction channels. An analytic method is introduced which can be used to determine the crossed-channel discontinuity for a large class of direct-channel Regge representations, and this method is applied to some specific representations.

It is demonstrated that the multi-sheeted analytic structure of the Regge trajectory function can be used to resolve apparent difficulties arising from infinitely rising Regge trajectories. Also discussed are the implications of large collections of "daughter trajectories."

Two things are of particular interest: first, the threshold behavior in direct and crossed channels; second, the potentialities of Reggeized representations for us in self-consistent calculations. A new representation is introduced which surpasses previous formulations in these two areas, automatically satisfying direct-channel threshold constraints while being capable of reproducing a reasonable crossed channel discontinuity. A scalar model is investigated for low energies, and a relation is obtained between the mass of the lowest bound state and the slope of the Regge trajectory.

The Construction of Arbitrary Stable Dynamics in Non-Linear Neural Networks

In this paper, two methods for constructing systems of ordinary differential equations realizing any fixed finite set of equilibria in any fixed finite dimension are introduced; no spurious equilibria are possible for either method. By using the first method, one can construct a system with the fewest number of equilibria, given a fixed set of attractors. Using a strict Lyapunov function for each of these differential equations, a large class of systems with the same set of equilibria is constructed. A method of fitting these nonlinear systems to trajectories is proposed. In addition, a general method which will produce an arbitrary number of periodic orbits of shapes of arbitrary complexity is also discussed. A more general second method is given to construct a differential equation which converges to a fixed given finite set of equilibria. This technique is much more general in that it allows this set of equilibria to have any of a large class of indices which are consistent with the Morse Inequalities. It is clear that this class is not universal, because there is a large class of additional vector fields with convergent dynamics which cannot be constructed by the above method. The easiest way to see this is to enumerate the set of Morse indices which can be obtained by the above method and compare this class with the class of Morse indices of arbitrary differential equations with convergent dynamics. The former set of indices are a proper subclass of the latter, therefore, the above construction cannot be universal. In general, it is a difficult open problem to construct a specific example of a differential equation with a given fixed set of equilibria, permissible Morse indices, and permissible connections between stable and unstable manifolds. A strict Lyapunov function is given for this second case as well. This strict Lyapunov function as above enables construction of a large class of examples consistent with these more complicated dynamics and indices. The determination of all the basins of attraction in the general case for these systems is also difficult and open.

Non-Linear oil firm force coefficients for a journal bearing operating under aligned and misaligned conditions

It is well established that hydrodynamic journal bearings are responsible for self-excited vibrations and have the effect of lowering the critical speeds of rotor systems. The forces within the oil film wedge, generated by the vibrating journal, may be represented by displacement and velocity coefficient~ thus allowing the dynamical behaviour of the rotor to be analysed both for stability purposes and for anticipating the response to unbalance. However, information describing these coefficients is sparse, misleading, and very often not applicable to industrial type bearings. Results of a combined analytical and experimental investigation into the hydrodynamic oil film coefficients operating in the laminar region are therefore presented, the analysis being applied to a 120 degree partial journal bearing having a 5.0 in diameter journal and a LID ratio of 1.0. The theoretical analysis shows that for this type of popular bearing, the eight linearized coefficients do not accurately describe the behaviour of the vibrating journal based on the theory of small perturbations, due to them being masked by the presence of nonlinearity. A method is developed using the second order terms of Taylor expansion whereby design charts are provided which predict the twentyeight force coefficients for both aligned, and for varying amounts of journal misalignment. The resulting non-linear equations of motion are solved using a modified Newton-Raphson method whereby the whirl trajectories are obtained, thus providing a physical appreciation of the bearing characteristics under dynamically loaded conditions.

Stability and convergence of an implicit numerical method for the non-linear fractional reaction-subdiffusion process

In this paper, we consider the following non-linear fractional reaction–subdiffusion process (NFR-SubDP): Formula where f(u, x, t) is a linear function of u, the function g(u, x, t) satisfies the Lipschitz condition and 0Dt1–{gamma} is the Riemann–Liouville time fractional partial derivative of order 1 – {gamma}. We propose a new computationally efficient numerical technique to simulate the process. Firstly, the NFR-SubDP is decoupled, which is equivalent to solving a non-linear fractional reaction–subdiffusion equation (NFR-SubDE). Secondly, we propose an implicit numerical method to approximate the NFR-SubDE. Thirdly, the stability and convergence of the method are discussed using a new energy method. Finally, some numerical examples are presented to show the application of the present technique. This method and supporting theoretical results can also be applied to fractional integrodifferential equations.

An advanced implicit meshless approach for the non-linear anomalous subdiffusion equation

Recently, the numerical modelling and simulation for anomalous subdiffusion equation (ASDE), which is a type of fractional partial differential equation( FPDE) and has been found with widely applications in modern engineering and sciences, are attracting more and more attentions. The current dominant numerical method for modelling ASDE is Finite Difference Method (FDM), which is based on a pre-defined grid leading to inherited issues or shortcomings. This paper aims to develop an implicit meshless approach based on the radial basis functions (RBF) for numerical simulation of the non-linear ASDE. The discrete system of equations is obtained by using the meshless shape functions and the strong-forms. The stability and convergence of this meshless approach are then discussed and theoretically proven. Several numerical examples with different problem domains are used to validate and investigate accuracy and efficiency of the newly developed meshless formulation. The results obtained by the meshless formulations are also compared with those obtained by FDM in terms of their accuracy and efficiency. It is concluded that the present meshless formulation is very effective for the modeling and simulation of the ASDE. Therefore, the meshless technique should have good potential in development of a robust simulation tool for problems in engineering and science which are governed by the various types of fractional differential equations.

Non-linear oscillations assessment of the distribution static compensator operating in voltage control mode

This article deals with the non-linear oscillations assessment of a distribution static comensator ooperating in voltage control mode using the bifurcation theory. A mathematical model of the distribution static compensator in the voltage control mode to carry out the bifurcation analysis is derived. The stabiity regions in the Thevein equivalent plane are computed. In addition, the stability regions in the control gains space, as well as the contour lines for different Floquet multipliers are computed. The AC and DC capacitor impacts on the stability are analyzed through the bifurcation theory. The observations are verified through simulaation studies. The computation of the stability region allows the assessment of the stable operating zones for a power system that includes a distribution static compensator operating in the voltage mode.

Validation Gating for Non-Linear Non-Gaussian Target Tracking

This paper develops a general theory of validation gating for non-linear non-Gaussian mod- els. Validation gates are used in target tracking to cull very unlikely measurement-to-track associa- tions, before remaining association ambiguities are handled by a more comprehensive (and expensive) data association scheme. The essential property of a gate is to accept a high percentage of correct associ- ations, thus maximising track accuracy, but provide a su±ciently tight bound to minimise the number of ambiguous associations. For linear Gaussian systems, the ellipsoidal vali- dation gate is standard, and possesses the statistical property whereby a given threshold will accept a cer- tain percentage of true associations. This property does not hold for non-linear non-Gaussian models. As a system departs from linear-Gaussian, the ellip- soid gate tends to reject a higher than expected pro- portion of correct associations and permit an excess of false ones. In this paper, the concept of the ellip- soidal gate is extended to permit correct statistics for the non-linear non-Gaussian case. The new gate is demonstrated by a bearing-only tracking example.

Asset life prediction and maintenance decision-making using a non-linear non-Gaussian state space model

Estimating and predicting degradation processes of engineering assets is crucial for reducing the cost and insuring the productivity of enterprises. Assisted by modern condition monitoring (CM) technologies, most asset degradation processes can be revealed by various degradation indicators extracted from CM data. Maintenance strategies developed using these degradation indicators (i.e. condition-based maintenance) are more cost-effective, because unnecessary maintenance activities are avoided when an asset is still in a decent health state. A practical difficulty in condition-based maintenance (CBM) is that degradation indicators extracted from CM data can only partially reveal asset health states in most situations. Underestimating this uncertainty in relationships between degradation indicators and health states can cause excessive false alarms or failures without pre-alarms. The state space model provides an efficient approach to describe a degradation process using these indicators that can only partially reveal health states. However, existing state space models that describe asset degradation processes largely depend on assumptions such as, discrete time, discrete state, linearity, and Gaussianity. The discrete time assumption requires that failures and inspections only happen at fixed intervals. The discrete state assumption entails discretising continuous degradation indicators, which requires expert knowledge and often introduces additional errors. The linear and Gaussian assumptions are not consistent with nonlinear and irreversible degradation processes in most engineering assets. This research proposes a Gamma-based state space model that does not have discrete time, discrete state, linear and Gaussian assumptions to model partially observable degradation processes. Monte Carlo-based algorithms are developed to estimate model parameters and asset remaining useful lives. In addition, this research also develops a continuous state partially observable semi-Markov decision process (POSMDP) to model a degradation process that follows the Gamma-based state space model and is under various maintenance strategies. Optimal maintenance strategies are obtained by solving the POSMDP. Simulation studies through the MATLAB are performed; case studies using the data from an accelerated life test of a gearbox and a liquefied natural gas industry are also conducted. The results show that the proposed Monte Carlo-based EM algorithm can estimate model parameters accurately. The results also show that the proposed Gamma-based state space model have better fitness result than linear and Gaussian state space models when used to process monotonically increasing degradation data in the accelerated life test of a gear box. Furthermore, both simulation studies and case studies show that the prediction algorithm based on the Gamma-based state space model can identify the mean value and confidence interval of asset remaining useful lives accurately. In addition, the simulation study shows that the proposed maintenance strategy optimisation method based on the POSMDP is more flexible than that assumes a predetermined strategy structure and uses the renewal theory. Moreover, the simulation study also shows that the proposed maintenance optimisation method can obtain more cost-effective strategies than a recently published maintenance strategy optimisation method by optimising the next maintenance activity and the waiting time till the next maintenance activity simultaneously.