Correcting mortality for loss to follow-up: a nomogram applied to antiretroviral treatment programmes in sub-Saharan Africa

Background The World Health Organization estimates that in sub-Saharan Africa about 4 million HIV-infected patients had started antiretroviral therapy (ART) by the end of 2008. Loss of patients to follow-up and care is an important problem for treatment programmes in this region. As mortality is high in these patients compared to patients remaining in care, ART programmes with high rates of loss to follow-up may substantially underestimate mortality of all patients starting ART. Methods and Findings We developed a nomogram to correct mortality estimates for loss to follow-up, based on the fact that mortality of all patients starting ART in a treatment programme is a weighted average of mortality among patients lost to follow-up and patients remaining in care. The nomogram gives a correction factor based on the percentage of patients lost to follow-up at a given point in time, and the estimated ratio of mortality between patients lost and not lost to follow-up. The mortality observed among patients retained in care is then multiplied by the correction factor to obtain an estimate of programme-level mortality that takes all deaths into account. A web calculator directly calculates the corrected, programme-level mortality with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). We applied the method to 11 ART programmes in sub-Saharan Africa. Patients retained in care had a mortality at 1 year of 1.4% to 12.0%; loss to follow-up ranged from 2.8% to 28.7%; and the correction factor from 1.2 to 8.0. The absolute difference between uncorrected and corrected mortality at 1 year ranged from 1.6% to 9.8%, and was above 5% in four programmes. The largest difference in mortality was in a programme with 28.7% of patients lost to follow-up at 1 year. Conclusions The amount of bias in mortality estimates can be large in ART programmes with substantial loss to follow-up. Programmes should routinely report mortality among patients retained in care and the proportion of patients lost. A simple nomogram can then be used to estimate mortality among all patients who started ART, for a range of plausible mortality rates among patients lost to follow-up.

An atmospheric diffusion nomogram with extended parameter ranges /

"February 15, 1956."

The prognostic value of a nomogram for exercise capacity in women

BACKGROUND: Recent studies have demonstrated that exercise capacity is an independent predictor of mortality in women. Normative values of exercise capacity for age in women have not been well established. Our objectives were to construct a nomogram to permit determination of predicted exercise capacity for age in women and to assess the predictive value of the nomogram with respect to survival. METHODS: A total of 5721 asymptomatic women underwent a symptom-limited, maximal stress test. Exercise capacity was measured in metabolic equivalents (MET). Linear regression was used to estimate the mean MET achieved for age. A nomogram was established to allow the percentage of predicted exercise capacity to be estimated on the basis of age and the exercise capacity achieved. The nomogram was then used to determine the percentage of predicted exercise capacity for both the original cohort and a referral population of 4471 women with cardiovascular symptoms who underwent a symptom-limited stress test. Survival data were obtained for both cohorts, and Cox survival analysis was used to estimate the rates of death from any cause and from cardiac causes in each group. RESULTS: The linear regression equation for predicted exercise capacity (in MET) on the basis of age in the cohort of asymptomatic women was as follows: predicted MET = 14.7 - (0.13 x age). The risk of death among asymptomatic women whose exercise capacity was less than 85 percent of the predicted value for age was twice that among women whose exercise capacity was at least 85 percent of the age-predicted value (P<0.001). Results were similar in the cohort of symptomatic women. CONCLUSIONS: We have established a nomogram for predicted exercise capacity on the basis of age that is predictive of survival among both asymptomatic and symptomatic women. These findings could be incorporated into the interpretation of exercise stress tests, providing additional prognostic information for risk stratification.

Prediction Nomogram for 68Ga-PSMA-11 PET/CT in different clinical settings of PSA failure after radical treatment for Prostate Cancer

Objective The objective of this study was to develop a clinical nomogram to predict gallium-68 prostate-specific membrane antigen positron emission tomography/computed tomography (68Ga-PSMA-11-PET/CT) positivity in different clinical settings of PSA failure. Materials and methods Seven hundred three (n = 703) prostate cancer (PCa) patients with confirmed PSA failure after radical therapy were enrolled. Patients were stratified according to different clinical settings (first-time biochemical recurrence [BCR]: group 1; BCR after salvage therapy: group 2; biochemical persistence after radical prostatectomy [BCP]: group 3; advanced stage PCa before second-line systemic therapies: group 4). First, we assessed 68Ga-PSMA-11-PET/CT positivity rate. Second, multivariable logistic regression analyses were used to determine predictors of positive scan. Third, regression-based coefficients were used to develop a nomogram predicting positive 68Ga-PSMA-11-PET/CT result and 200 bootstrap resamples were used for internal validation. Fourth, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was used to identify the most informative nomogram’s derived cut-off. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was implemented to quantify nomogram’s clinical benefit. Results 68Ga-PSMA-11-PET/CT overall positivity rate was 51.2%, while it was 40.3% in group 1, 54% in group 2, 60.5% in group 3, and 86.9% in group 4 (p < 0.001). At multivariable analyses, ISUP grade, PSA, PSA doubling time, and clinical setting were independent predictors of a positive scan (all p ≤ 0.04). A nomogram based on covariates included in the multivariate model demonstrated a bootstrap-corrected accuracy of 82%. The nomogram-derived best cut-off value was 40%. In DCA, the nomogram revealed clinical net benefit of > 10%. Conclusions This novel nomogram proved its good accuracy in predicting a positive scan, with values ≥ 40% providing the most informative cut-off in counselling patients to 68Ga-PSMA-11-PET/CT. This tool might be important as a guide to clinicians in the best use of PSMA-based PET imaging.

Is the ultrasound-estimated bladder weight a reliable method for evaluating bladder outlet obstruction?

OBJECTIVE To evaluate the correlation between ultrasound-estimated bladder weight (UEBW) in patients with different degrees of bladder outlet obstruction (BOO). METHODS We evaluated 50 consecutive non-neurogenic male patients with lower urinary tract symptoms (LUTS) referred to urodynamic study (UDS). All patients self-answered the International Prostate Score Symptoms (IPSS) questionnaire. After the UDS, the bladder was filled with 150 mL to determine UEBW. Patients with a bladder capacity under 150 mL, a previous history of prostate surgery or pelvic irradiation, an IPSS score <8, a bladder stone or urinary tract infection were excluded. After a pressure-flow study, the Schafer linear passive urethral resistance relation nomogram was plotted to determine the grade of obstruction: Grades I-II/VI were defined as mild obstruction, Grades III-IV/VI as moderate obstruction, and Grades V-VI/VI as severe obstruction. RESULTS The UEBW was 51.7 +/- 26.9, 54.1 +/- 30.0 and 54.8 +/- 28.2 in patients with mild, moderate and severe BOO, respectively (P = 0.130). The UEBW allowed us to define four groups: (i) UEBW < 35 g; (ii) 35 g <= UEBW < 50 g; (iii) 50 g <= UEBW < 70 g; and (4) UEBW >= 70 g. We did not find any differences in age, prostate weight, IPSS, PVR, cystometric bladder capacity, presence of detrusor overactive and degree of obstruction in the aforementioned groups. CONCLUSION Despite the fact that some studies have emphasized the value of UEBW as an efficient non-invasive method for evaluating lower urinary tract obstruction, our study suggests that UEBW does not present any individual correlation with LUTS or objective measurements of BOO.

Métodos Preditivos de Metastização Ganglionar Adicional em Cancro da Mama com Gânglio Sentinela Positivo

Objectivos As recomendações para a realização de linfadenectomia axilar nos doentes com cancro da mama em estádio precoce e sujeitas a biópsia de gânglio sentinela com presença de macrometástase foram recentemente actualizadas, baseadas nos últimos estudos publicados (Z0011 e IBCSG 23-01). Mantém-se, no entanto, alguma controvérsia na decisão de não realização de cirurgia radical axilar nos doentes com gânglio sentinela positivo. Têm sido desenvolvidos métodos preditivos de metastização ganglionar adicional. Um dos mais conhecidos, desenvolvido no Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center (MSKCC), recorre a variáveis do tumor e características do gânglio sentinela. Mais recentemente com a utilização de métodos moleculares (como o One Step Nucleic Acid - OSNA) para estudo do gânglio sentinela tem sido avaliada a capacidade preditiva da quantidade total de cópias mRNA da citoqueratina 19. Pretende-se estudar na nossa amostra a capacidade preditiva do nomograma do MSKCC e da carga tumoral total. Propõe-se ainda avaliar o número de macrometástases encontradas na biópsia de gânglio sentinela e sua relação na metastização ganglionar adicional. Material e métodos Avaliação retrospectiva de 819 doentes com cancro da mama (Tis – T2) submetidos a biópsia de gânglio sentinela no Centro Hospitalar de Lisboa Central durante o período de 1 de Janeiro de 2005 e 31 de Dezembro de 2013. Foram identificados 123 doentes com gânglio sentinela positivo que realizaram linfadenectomia axilar imediata. A análise do gânglio sentinela foi executada por métodos histológicos em 78 doentes e por método molecular (OSNA) em 45 doentes. Os dois grupos foram estudados separadamente, tendo sido no primeiro aplicado o nomograma do MSKCC e no segundo obtida a carga tumoral total. Utilizou-se o modelo de regressão logística para analisar o poder preditivo e discriminativo destes dois métodos. Adicionalmente, para avaliar a potencial importância do número de macrometástases na metastização ganglionar adicional, foi ajustado um novo modelo de regressão logística considerando esta variável e a carga tumoral total. Ambos os métodos foram também avaliados através da área sob a curva ROC (AUC) e do teste de Hosmer-Lemeshow, respectivamente. O nível de significância adoptado foi α = 0.05. O estudo estatístico foi realizado com recurso ao SPSS. Resultados No grupo em que foi aplicado o nomograma do MSKCC obteve-se uma AUC=0.67 (I.C. 95% = 0.55 – 0.79), e no grupo em que foi avaliada a carga tumoral total uma AUC=0.78 (I.C. 95% = 0.64 – 0.91). Os poderes preditivos de ambos foram, respectivamente, p=0.15 e p=0.46. Constatou-se que o desempenho do modelo resultante da junção da carga tumoral total com o número de macrometástases encontradas no estudo do gânglio sentinela foi bastante satisfatório (AUC=0.87, I.C 95% = 0.76 – 0.98, poder preditivo p=0.33). Conclusão Foi validado externamente o modelo do MSKCC para a amostra em estudo, apresentando uma menor acuidade discriminativa em relação ao estudo original (AUC=0.67 versus AUC=0.75). Por outro lado, após verificação da homogeneidade de ambos os grupos no que diz respeito a todas as variáveis de interesse, conclui-se que a carga tumoral total aparenta uma maior acuidade preditiva e discriminativa na metastização ganglionar adicional que o nomograma do MSKCC. Quando desenvolvido um modelo agregando a carga tumoral total avaliada por OSNA e o número de macrometástases no gânglio sentinela, obteve-se uma capacidade discriminativa ainda superior. A carga tumoral total avaliada por OSNA, ou esta incluída num modelo conjunto com o número de macrometástases obtidas no estudo do gânglio sentinela, poderão representar importantes ferramentas preditivas. Serão no entanto necessários estudos adicionais com amostras superiores para consolidar estes resultados. Bibliografia 1. Giuliano AE, McCall L, Beitsch P, Whitworth PW, Blumencranz P, Leitch AM, et al. Locoregional recurrence after sentinel lymph node dissection with or without axillary dissection in patients with sentinel lymph node metastases: the American College of Surgeons Oncology Group Z0011 randomized trial. Ann Surg. Setembro de 2010;252(3):426–32; discussion 432–3. 2. Galimberti V, Cole BF, Zurrida S, Viale G, Luini A, Veronesi P, et al. Axillary dissection versus no axillary dissection in patients with sentinel-node micrometastases (IBCSG 23-01): a phase 3 randomised controlled trial. Lancet Oncol. Abril de 2013;14(4):297–305. 3. Bevilacqua JLB, Kattan MW, Fey JV, Cody HS, Borgen PI, Van Zee KJ. Doctor, what are my chances of having a positive sentinel node? A validated nomogram for risk estimation. J Clin Oncol. 20 de Agosto de 2007;25(24):3670–9. 4. Piñero A, Canteras M, Moreno A, Vicente F, Giménez J, Tocino A, et al. Multicenter validation of two nomograms to predict non-sentinel node involvement in breast cancer. Clin Transl Oncol. Fevereiro de 2013;15(2):117–23. 5. Banerjee SM, Michalopoulos NV, Williams NR, Davidson T, El Sheikh S, McDermott N, et al. Detailed evaluation of one step nucleic acid (OSNA) molecular assay for intra-operative diagnosis of sentinel lymph node metastasis and prediction of non-sentinel nodal involvement: experience from a London teaching hospital. Breast. Agosto de 2014;23(4):378–84. 6. Peg V, Espinosa-Bravo M, Vieites B, Vilardell F, Antúnez JR, de Salas MS, et al. Intraoperative molecular analysis of total tumor load in sentinel lymph node: a new predictor of axillary status in early breast cancer patients. Breast Cancer Res Treat. Maio de 2013;139(1):87–93. 7. Tiernan JP, Verghese ET, Nair A, Pathak S, Kim B, White J, et al. Systematic review and meta-analysis of cytokeratin 19-based one-step nucleic acid amplification versus histopathology for sentinel lymph node assessment in breast cancer. Br J Surg. Março de 2014;101(4):298–306. 8. Heilmann T, Mathiak M, Hofmann J, Mundhenke C, van Mackelenbergh M, Alkatout I, et al. Intra-operative use of one-step nucleic acid amplification (OSNA) for detection of the tumor load of sentinel lymph nodes in breast cancer patients. J Cancer Res Clin Oncol. Outubro de 2013;139(10):1649–55. 9. Chaudhry A, Williams S, Cook J, Jenkins M, Sohail M, Calder C, et al. The real-time intra-operative evaluation of sentinel lymph nodes in breast cancer patients using One Step Nucleic Acid Amplification (OSNA) and implications for clinical decision-making. Eur J Surg Oncol. Fevereiro de 2014;40(2):150–7.

Assessing cardiorespiratory capacity in older adults with major depression and Alzheimer disease

ABSTRACT Objective To assess cardiorespiratory capacity through subjective and objective tests in older adults diagnosed with major depression (MDD), Alzheimer disease (AD) and healthy older adults. Methods Fifty seven subjects (72 ± 7.9 years) were divided into three groups: MDD (n = 20), AD (n = 17) and Healthy (n = 20). The subjects answered Hamilton Scale (HAM-D), Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE), Veterans Specific Activity Questionnaire (VSAQ) and 2-minute Step test. Results MDD and AD showed lower scores than healthy group for Nomogram VSAQ (p < 0.001) and 2-minute Step (p = 0.009; p = 0.008, respectively). Adjusted for age and educational level, no differences among groups were observed for Step (MDD, p = 0.097; AD, p = 0.102). AD group did not present differences to healthy group for Step, when adjusting for MMSE (p = 0.261). Conclusions Despite the lower cardiorespiratory fitness of elderly patients with DM and DA have been found in both evaluations, the results should be viewed with caution, since the tests showed low correlation and different risk classifications of functional loss. In addition, age, level educational and cognitive performance are variables that can influence the performance objective evaluation.

Studies on storm surges and sea level variations along the east coast of india

It became so usual for the east coast of India to face at least IO to 15 cyclones every year, out of which 3 to 4 may reach the deep depression stage. As a result the east coast of India experiences frequent heavy damages of varying intensities due to storm surges and it is also not unusual to experience a calamitous deluge once in a decade or so. Loss of life and damages can be minimized only if the magnitude of the surge could be predicted at least a day in advance. Therefore, an attempt to study the storm surges generated by the cyclones that strike the east coast of India and. suggest a method of predicting them through nomogram is made

Resolución espontánea de reflujo vesicoureteral primario en niños: factores predictores y nomograma de predicción

Introducción: Determinamos la proporción de resolución espontánea de RVU primario en una población de niños menores de 5 años así como los factores que influyen y predicen tal resolución, con base en lo cual diseñamos un nomograma que permite determinar la posibilidad de resolución espontánea de cada grado de reflujo a los 3 años de su diagnóstico Metodología: Incluimos 407 niños con diagnóstico de RVU primario en un periodo de 10 años. Mediante análisis de asociación y comparaciones de promedios se determinaron las variables que se comportaron como factores de riesgo para fallar en obtener resolución espontanea y por un modelo de regresión logística binomial se confirmaron asociaciones. Se practicaron comparaciones mediante ANOVA o t-test y así como análisis de sobrevida mediante Log Rank Test para determinar las variables que influían también en el tiempo necesario para obtener resolución espontánea. Resultados: Las tasas de resolución espontánea fueron 92%, 85%, 56.4%, 21% y 5% para los grados I a V de reflujo respectivamente. En el análisis multivariado, Las variables nefropatía por reflujo (sig=0,000), Síndrome de evacuación disfuncional (SED) (sig=0,000) y bilateralidad (sig=0,006) fueron los factores de riesgo independientes para la falla del RVU en resolver espontáneamente. Sin embargo, en los análisis de sobrevida solo la variable SED demostró influir en el tiempo necesario para obtener resolución espontanea (sig=0,002). Discusión: Los hallazgos de este estudio ratifican la importancia de incluir variables como SED, nefropatía por reflujo y lateralidad en los modelos de predicción de resolución espontánea del RVU.

Loss of nerve fiber layer in HIV positive patients and comparative patterns in a series of cases in Bucaramanga, Colombia

Objective: The objective of this study is to conduct a description of the features of optic neuropathy associated with Human Immunodeficiency Virus in relation to their possible incidence within our population, regarding that there is no data in our population in terms of frequency of this pathology (1,2). Methodology: Descriptive cross-sectional study of a clinical series of patients infected with human immunodeficiency virus, but AIDS, and the thickness of optic nerve´s layer of fibers studied with OCT technology (optical coherence tomography), patients were cited once captured. OCT was performed by the same observer, by taking 3 shots and picking the one with better reliability. Patients were given personally to the Ophthalmologic Foundation of Santander to conduct the review called OCT (optical coherence tomography). Results: In terms of viral load variable, we found a clear correlation in which validates the hypothesis that lower viral load means a thicker layer of fibers finding statistically significant differences for the 6 hours in right eye and 12 and 6 hours in left eye. Comparison between the known nomogram of fiber layer thickness for the population of Bucaramanga, Santander and thickness found in our sample, we note a clear decrease in the upper and lower quadrants, specifically in 7 hours and 11 hours, being more important in 7 hours, showing statistically significant differences. Conclusions: The pattern  of thinning of the nerve fiber layer in HIV positive patients without AIDS, and antiretroviral treatment type HAART, showed a statistically significant thinning targeted at 7 hours and 11 hours, being higher in first. Viral load figures have a direct relation with loss fiber layer, showing a statistically significant difference for the 6 and 12 hours.

Resonancia magnética cardiaca: medidas lineales y volumétricas en adultos sanos

Introducción: La gran mayoría de las medidas de normalidad utilizadas para la interpretación de resonancia cardiaca son extrapoladas de las medidas de ecocardiografía. Los limitados registros de medidas de normalidad se encuentran ajustados en poblaciones extranjeras, no hay registros en latinoamericanos. Objetivo: Determinar las dimensiones cardiacas utilizando resonancia magnética en una población de personas sin antecedente médicos con repercusión cardiaca para lograr una muestra de valores que permitan ajustar las medidas de normalidad utilizadas por nuestro servicio. Materiales y métodos: se analizaron 45 sujetos sanos con edad comprendida entre los 21 y 45 años, las adquisiciones se realizaron utilizando un equipo de RM de 1,5 teslas, el análisis de las imágenes se realizó mediante el programa Cardiac Volume Vx. Se evaluaron múltiples parámetros morfofuncionales a través de análisis estadístico por medio del sistema SPSS versión 23. Resultados: Mediciones obtenidas de ventrículo izquierdo principales fueron volumen diastólico en mujeres de 62 ml +/- 7.1 y en hombres de 65 ml +/- 11.2 y fracción de eyección de 60 % +/- 5 en mujeres y de 62 % +/- 9 en hombres. En ventrículo derecho el volumen diastólico final se encontró 81.8 ml +/- 14.6 en mujeres y 100 ml +/- 24.8 en hombres y fracción de eyección de 53 % +/- 17 en mujeres y de 45 % +/- 12 en hombres. Volumen de fin de diástole de 50 +/- 12.7 ml en mujeres y de 49 ml +/- 19 ml en hombres y fracción de eyección de aurícula izquierda de 55 % +/- 0.08 en mujeres y de 50 % +/- 0.07 en hombres. Volumen de fin de diástole de 44.1 ml +/- 18.5 en mujeres y de 49.2 ml +/- 22.9 en hombres y fracción de eyección de aurícula derecha de 50 % +/- 11 en mujeres y de 45 % +/- 8 en hombres. Se obtuvieron otras medidas lineales y volumétricas adicionales de cavidades cardiacas y de grandes vasos supracardiacos. Conclusiones: se describen los valores de referencia de los parámetros morfofuncionales de las cavidades cardiacas y de vasos supracardiacos. El sexo fue tenido en cuenta como covariable relacionada con la modificación de los parámetros evaluados. Se sugieren variaciones en las medidas de cavidades cardiacas para la población estudiada relacionada con aclimatación crónica a la altitud de la ciudad de Bogotá.