A Bayesian network approach to modelling temporal behaviour of Lyngbya majuscula bloom initiation

Lyngbya majuscula is a cyanobacterium (blue-green algae) occurring naturally in tropical and subtropical coastal areas worldwide. Deception Bay, in Northern Moreton Bay, Queensland, has a history of Lyngbya blooms, and forms a case study for this investigation. The South East Queensland (SEQ) Healthy Waterways Partnership, collaboration between government, industry, research and the community, was formed to address issues affecting the health of the river catchments and waterways of South East Queensland. The Partnership coordinated the Lyngbya Research and Management Program (2005-2007) which culminated in a Coastal Algal Blooms (CAB) Action Plan for harmful and nuisance algal blooms, such as Lyngbya majuscula. This first phase of the project was predominantly of a scientific nature and also facilitated the collection of additional data to better understand Lyngbya blooms. The second phase of this project, SEQ Healthy Waterways Strategy 2007-2012, is now underway to implement the CAB Action Plan and as such is more management focussed. As part of the first phase of the project, a Science model for the initiation of a Lyngbya bloom was built using Bayesian Networks (BN). The structure of the Science Bayesian Network was built by the Lyngbya Science Working Group (LSWG) which was drawn from diverse disciplines. The BN was then quantified with annual data and expert knowledge. Scenario testing confirmed the expected temporal nature of bloom initiation and it was recommended that the next version of the BN be extended to take this into account. Elicitation for this BN thus occurred at three levels: design, quantification and verification. The first level involved construction of the conceptual model itself, definition of the nodes within the model and identification of sources of information to quantify the nodes. The second level included elicitation of expert opinion and representation of this information in a form suitable for inclusion in the BN. The third and final level concerned the specification of scenarios used to verify the model. The second phase of the project provides the opportunity to update the network with the newly collected detailed data obtained during the previous phase of the project. Specifically the temporal nature of Lyngbya blooms is of interest. Management efforts need to be directed to the most vulnerable periods to bloom initiation in the Bay. To model the temporal aspects of Lyngbya we are using Object Oriented Bayesian networks (OOBN) to create ‘time slices’ for each of the periods of interest during the summer. OOBNs provide a framework to simplify knowledge representation and facilitate reuse of nodes and network fragments. An OOBN is more hierarchical than a traditional BN with any sub-network able to contain other sub-networks. Connectivity between OOBNs is an important feature and allows information flow between the time slices. This study demonstrates more sophisticated use of expert information within Bayesian networks, which combine expert knowledge with data (categorized using expert-defined thresholds) within an expert-defined model structure. Based on the results from the verification process the experts are able to target areas requiring greater precision and those exhibiting temporal behaviour. The time slices incorporate the data for that time period for each of the temporal nodes (instead of using the annual data from the previous static Science BN) and include lag effects to allow the effect from one time slice to flow to the next time slice. We demonstrate a concurrent steady increase in the probability of initiation of a Lyngbya bloom and conclude that the inclusion of temporal aspects in the BN model is consistent with the perceptions of Lyngbya behaviour held by the stakeholders. This extended model provides a more accurate representation of the increased risk of algal blooms in the summer months and show that the opinions elicited to inform a static BN can be readily extended to a dynamic OOBN, providing more comprehensive information for decision makers.

Knowledge gain or system benefit in environmental decision making?

The quality of environmental decisions are gauged according to the management objectives of a conservation project. Management objectives are generally about maximising some quantifiable measure of system benefit, for instance population growth rate. They can also be defined in terms of learning about the system in question, in such a case actions would be chosen that maximise knowledge gain, for instance in experimental management sites. Learning about a system can also take place when managing practically. The adaptive management framework (Walters 1986) formally acknowledges this fact by evaluating learning in terms of how it will improve management of the system and therefore future system benefit. This is taken into account when ranking actions using stochastic dynamic programming (SDP). However, the benefits of any management action lie on a spectrum from pure system benefit, when there is nothing to be learned about the system, to pure knowledge gain. The current adaptive management framework does not permit management objectives to evaluate actions over the full range of this spectrum. By evaluating knowledge gain in units distinct to future system benefit this whole spectrum of management objectives can be unlocked. This paper outlines six decision making policies that differ across the spectrum of pure system benefit through to pure learning. The extensions to adaptive management presented allow specification of the relative importance of learning compared to system benefit in management objectives. Such an extension means practitioners can be more specific in the construction of conservation project objectives and be able to create policies for experimental management sites in the same framework as practical management sites.

Intentions Toward Physical Activity and Resting Behavior in Pregnant Women: Using the Theory of Planned Behavior Framework in a Cross-Sectional Study

BACKGROUND: Pregnant women are recommended to 1) perform daily moderate-intensity physical activity and 2) limit the amount of sedentary time. Many women do not meet these recommendations. Reduced physical activity and increased sedentary behavior may result from women actively intending to rest during pregnancy. The Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) has been used to assess attitudes (e.g., positive/negative beliefs), subjective norms (e.g., perception of others' views), perceived behavioral control (PBC) (e.g., self-efficacy), and intention toward exercising while pregnant but has not been applied to aspects pertaining to resting during pregnancy.

METHODS: Pregnant women (n = 345) completed a cross-sectional questionnaire that included two TPB Questionnaires where the target behaviors were 1) being physically active and 2) resting. Bootstrapped paired t tests, ANOVA, and linear hierarchal regression analyses were performed to identify predictors of intentions and whether intentions toward the two behaviors varied at different stages of pregnancy.

RESULTS: As women progressed in their pregnancy, their attitude, PBC, and intention toward being physically active all significantly declined. A positive attitude, subjective norms, and intention toward resting all significantly increased with the advancing trimester. Self-reported health conditions predicted lower intention for physical activity but not for resting.

DISCUSSION: The significantly inverse relationship between physical activity and resting across time suggests that women feel they should focus on one behavior at the expense of the other. Finding that women generally do not perceive these behaviors as mutually compatible has implications in strategizing as to how to encourage women to be active during pregnancy.

Seguridad de los antipsicoticos en embarazo en pacientes con psicosis. Revisión sistemática

Enfermedades mentales de tipo psicótico en gestantes se han asociado con mayor número de resultados negativos. Los síntomas psicóticos durante el embarazo se presentan aproximadamente 7.1 por 100.000 casos. Dentro de las consecuencias se incluye mayor riesgo de parto pretérmino, bajo peso al nacer, alteraciones placentarias, malformaciones congénitas de predominio cardiovascular y mayor tasa de muertes perinatales. Como abordaje terapéutico son frecuentes los antipsicóticos de primera generación, aceptados como seguros pero en menor grado se han considerados los antipsicóticos de segunda generación pues ha sido escasamente evaluada su seguridad durante la gestación. Aún existe controversia sobre los potenciales efectos secundarios de algunos antipsicóticos dado los resultados contradictorios. Métodos: Revisión sistemática de la literatura de artículos que proporcionaron mejor evidencia para determinar cuáles antipsicóticos de elección durante la gestación en pacientes con esquizofrenia de acuerdo a su perfil de seguridad. Se evaluó calidad metodológica reconociendo particularidades y resultados de los estudios incluidos. Resultados: De 39 estudios seleccionados, cinco fueron incluidos en esta revisión, clasificándose como nivel de evidencia IIa y evaluados según su calidad metodológica con escala NOS. Se evaluó paso placentario de antipsicóticos, malformaciones fetales, complicaciones obstétricas como parto pretérmino, bajo y alto peso fetal, complicaciones respiratorias, diabetes gestacional, aborto espontáneo, entre otros. Discusión: Se debe sopesar el riesgo-beneficio, la significancia estadística, la significancia clínica y las particularidades de las pacientes a tratar. Conclusión: Los estudios analizados evaluaron diferentes medicamentos antipsicóticos, dificultando consolidación de información en especial en conclusiones solidas ante algunas premisas como fármacos de elección.

Análisis de la actuación de la Autoridad Ejecutiva Temporal de las Naciones Unidas – (UNTEA) en la protección de los derechos políticos de los grupos vulnerables. Estudio de caso: Adhesión de Papúa Occidental a Indonesia (1962-1969)

Estudio de caso en el análisis de la situación afrontada por la población de Papúa Occidental durante el periodo de 1962-1969, época en la que la nueva República de Indonesia y Holanda se disputaban la soberanía sobre el territorio papuano. Dicha disputa tuvo lugar durante la época de Guerra Fría, lo que llevó a que Estados Unidos junto con sus aliados en la región y la Unión Soviética intervinieran en él. Finalmente, Estados Unidos teniendo en cuenta sus intereses favoreció a la República de Indonesia y obligó a Holanda firmar el Acuerdo de Nueva York, en el que se establecía que sería la Autoridad Ejecutiva Temporal de las Naciones Unidas quien administrara y preparara el territorio para un futuro Acto de Libre Elección. En cualquiera que fuese el panorama, las Naciones Unidas no cumplieron con lo establecido en el Acuerdo lo que llevó a que fueran condescendientes con todas las peticiones indonesias sin tener en cuenta los deseos y los derechos de la población papuana, violándose su derecho de auto-determinación de los pueblos.

Fronteras y oportunidades de integración: los recursos subterráneos de agua dulce en el Mercosur

El presente estudio de caso tiene como objetivo analizar la influencia del Sistema Acuífero Guaraní (SAG), en la agenda de integración del MERCOSUR. Se argumenta que el SAG al considerarse un espacio estratégico trasfronterizo, cuenta con un potencial desestabilizador, pero a la vez se configura como un potencial armonizador de la agenda de integración de MERCOSUR, analizando que esta característica promueve el fortalecimiento de los lazos de cooperación y el establecimiento de una dimensión ambiental al interior de la agenda. Para comprobarlo, se revisará el concepto de agenda y se utilizaran los conceptos de integración y desbordamiento del neofuncionalismo en el contexto de la interdependencia compleja. Finalmente, se avanza hacia el resultado de la investigación que permite entender como el carácter estratégico del agua permea la agenda del MERCOSUR.

Transcriptional profiling of the LPS induced NF-kappaB response in macrophages

BACKGROUND: Exposure of macrophages to bacterial products such as lipopolysaccharide (LPS) results in activation of the NF-kappaB transcription factor, which orchestrates a gene expression programme that underpins the macrophage-dependent immune response. These changes include the induction or repression of a wide range of genes that regulate inflammation, cell proliferation, migration and cell survival. This process is tightly regulated and loss of control is associated with conditions such as septic shock, inflammatory diseases and cancer. To study this response, it is important to have in vitro model systems that reflect the behaviour of cells in vivo. In addition, it is necessary to understand the natural differences that can occur between individuals. In this report, we have investigated and compared the LPS response in macrophage derived cell lines and peripheral blood mononuclear cell (PBMC) derived macrophages. RESULTS: Gene expression profiles were determined following LPS treatment of THP-1 cells for 1 and 4 hours. LPS significantly induced or repressed 72 out of 465 genes selected as being known or putative NF-kappaB target genes, which exhibited 4 temporal patterns of expression. Results for 34 of these genes, including several genes not previously identified as LPS target genes, were validated using real time PCR. A high correlation between microarray and real time PCR data was found. Significantly, the LPS induced expression profile of THP-1 cells, as determined using real time PCR, was found to be very similar to that of human PBMC derived macrophages. Interestingly, some differences were observed in the LPS response between the two donor PBMC macrophage populations. Surprisingly, we found that the LPS response in U937 cells was dramatically different to both THP-1 and PBMC derived macrophages. CONCLUSION: This study revealed a dynamic and diverse transcriptional response to LPS in macrophages, involving both the induction and repression of gene expression in a time dependent manner. Moreover, we demonstrated that the LPS induced transcriptional response in the THP-1 cell line is very similar to primary PBMC derived macrophages. Therefore, THP-1 cells represent a good model system for studying the mechanisms of LPS and NF-kappaB dependent gene expression.

Uncertainties in tidally adjusted estimates of sea level rise flooding (bathtub model) for the Greater London

Sea-level rise (SLR) from global warming may have severe consequences for coastal cities, particularly when combined with predicted increases in the strength of tidal surges. Predicting the regional impact of SLR flooding is strongly dependent on the modelling approach and accuracy of topographic data. Here, the areas under risk of sea water flooding for London boroughs were quantified based on the projected SLR scenarios reported in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) fifth assessment report (AR5) and UK climatic projections 2009 (UKCP09) using a tidally-adjusted bathtub modelling approach. Medium- to very high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) are used to evaluate inundation extents as well as uncertainties. Depending on the SLR scenario and DEMs used, it is estimated that 3%–8% of the area of Greater London could be inundated by 2100. The boroughs with the largest areas at risk of flooding are Newham, Southwark, and Greenwich. The differences in inundation areas estimated from a digital terrain model and a digital surface model are much greater than the root mean square error differences observed between the two data types, which may be attributed to processing levels. Flood models from SRTM data underestimate the inundation extent, so their results may not be reliable for constructing flood risk maps. This analysis provides a broad-scale estimate of the potential consequences of SLR and uncertainties in the DEM-based bathtub type flood inundation modelling for London boroughs.

Climate change impacts and adaptation in Bangladesh : an agent-based approach

Bangladesh exemplifies the complex challenges facing densely populated coastal regions. The
pressures on the country are immense: around 145 million people live within an area of just 145,000 sq-km at
the confluence of three major river systems: the Ganges, the Brahmaputra and the Meghna. While progress
has been made, poverty remains widespread, with around 39% of children under five malnourished. Most of
its land-mass lies below 10m above sea level with considerable areas at sea level, leading to frequent and
prolonged flooding during the monsoons. Sea level rise is leading to more flooding as storm surges rise off
higher sea levels, pushing further inland. Higher sea levels also result in salt-water intrusion into freshwater
coastal aquifers and estuaries, contaminating drinking water and farmland. Warmer ocean waters are also
expected to lead to an increase in the intensity of tropical storms.
Bangladesh depends on the South Asian summer monsoon for most of its rainfall which is expected to
increase, leading to more flooding. Climate scientists are also concerned about the stability of monsoon and
the potential for it to undergo a nonlinear phase shift to a drier regime. Bangladesh faces an additional
hydrological challenge in that the Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers both rise in the Himalaya-Tibetan Plateau
region, where glaciers are melting rapidly. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
concluded that rapid melting is expected to increase river flows until around the late-2030s, by which time
the glaciers are expected to have shrunk from their 1995 extent of 500,000 sq-km to an expected 100,000 sqkm.
After the 2030s, river flows could drop dramatically, turning the great glacier-fed rivers of Asia into
seasonal monsoon-fed rivers. The IPCC concluded that as a result, water shortages in Asia could affect more
than a billion people by the 2050s. Over the same period, crop yields are expected to decline by up to 30% in
South Asia due to a combination of drought and crop heat stress. Bangladesh is therefore likely to face
substantial challenges in the coming decades.
In order to adequately understand the complex, dynamic, spatial and nonlinear challenges facing Bangladesh,
an integrated model of the system is required. An agent-based model (ABM) permits the dynamic
interactions of the economic, social, political, geographic, environmental and epidemiological dimensions of
climate change impacts and adaptation policies to be integrated via a modular approach. Integrating these
dimensions, including nonlinear threshold events such as mass migrations, or the outbreak of conflicts or
epidemics, is possible to a far greater degree with an ABM than with most other approaches.
We are developing a prototype ABM, implemented in Netlogo, to examine the dynamic impacts on poverty,
migration, mortality and conflict from climate change in Bangladesh from 2001 to 2100. The model employs
GIS and sub-district level census and economic data and a coarse-graining methodology to allow model
statistics to be generated on a national scale from local dynamic interactions. This approach allows a more
realistic treatment of distributed spatial events and heterogeneity across the country. The aim is not to
generate precise predictions of Bangladesh’s evolution, but to develop a framework that can be used for
integrated scenario exploration. This paper represents an initial report on progress on this project. So far the
prototype model has demonstrated the desirability and feasibility of integrating the different dimensions of
the complex adaptive system and, once completed, is intended to be used as the basis for a more detailed
policy-oriented model.