Spatial prediction of N2O emissions in pasture : a Bayesian model averaging analysis

Nitrous oxide (N2O) is one of the greenhouse gases that can contribute to global warming. Spatial variability of N2O can lead to large uncertainties in prediction. However, previous studies have often ignored the spatial dependency to quantify the N2O - environmental factors relationships. Few researches have examined the impacts of various spatial correlation structures (e.g. independence, distance-based and neighbourhood based) on spatial prediction of N2O emissions. This study aimed to assess the impact of three spatial correlation structures on spatial predictions and calibrate the spatial prediction using Bayesian model averaging (BMA) based on replicated, irregular point-referenced data. The data were measured in 17 chambers randomly placed across a 271 m(2) field between October 2007 and September 2008 in the southeast of Australia. We used a Bayesian geostatistical model and a Bayesian spatial conditional autoregressive (CAR) model to investigate and accommodate spatial dependency, and to estimate the effects of environmental variables on N2O emissions across the study site. We compared these with a Bayesian regression model with independent errors. The three approaches resulted in different derived maps of spatial prediction of N2O emissions. We found that incorporating spatial dependency in the model not only substantially improved predictions of N2O emission from soil, but also better quantified uncertainties of soil parameters in the study. The hybrid model structure obtained by BMA improved the accuracy of spatial prediction of N2O emissions across this study region.

A novel 15N tracer approach for the quantification of N2 and N2O emissions from soil incubations in a completely automated laboratory set up

The microbial mediated production of nitrous oxide (N2O) and its reduction to dinitrogen (N2) via denitrification represents a loss of nitrogen (N) from fertilised agro-ecosystems to the atmosphere. Although denitrification has received great interest by biogeochemists in the last decades, the magnitude of N2lossesand related N2:N2O ratios from soils still are largely unknown due to methodical constraints. We present a novel 15N tracer approach, based on a previous developed tracer method to study denitrification in pure bacterial cultures which was modified for the use on soil incubations in a completely automated laboratory set up. The method uses a background air in the incubation vessels that is replaced with a helium-oxygen gas mixture with a 50-fold reduced N2 background (2 % v/v). This method allows for a direct and sensitive quantification of the N2 and N2O emissions from the soil with isotope-ratio mass spectrometry after 15N labelling of denitrification N substrates and minimises the sensitivity to the intrusion of atmospheric N2 at the same time. The incubation set up was used to determine the influence of different soil moisture levels on N2 and N2O emissions from a sub-tropical pasture soil in Queensland/Australia. The soil was labelled with an equivalent of 50 μg-N per gram dry soil by broadcast application of KNO3solution (4 at.% 15N) and incubated for 3 days at 80% and 100% water filled pore space (WFPS), respectively. The headspace of the incubation vessel was sampled automatically over 12hrs each day and 3 samples (0, 6, and 12 hrs after incubation start) of headspace gas analysed for N2 and N2O with an isotope-ratio mass spectrometer (DELTA V Plus, Thermo Fisher Scientific, Bremen, Germany(. In addition, the soil was analysed for 15N NO3- and NH4+ using the 15N diffusion method, which enabled us to obtain a complete N balance. The method proved to be highly sensitive for N2 and N2O emissions detecting N2O emissions ranging from 20 to 627 μN kg-1soil-1hr-1and N2 emissions ranging from 4.2 to 43 μN kg-1soil-1hr-1for the different treatments. The main end-product of denitrification was N2O for both water contents with N2 accounting for 9% and 13% of the total denitrification losses at 80% and 100%WFPS, respectively. Between 95-100% of the added 15N fertiliser could be recovered. Gross nitrification over the 3 days amounted to 8.6 μN g-1 soil-1 and 4.7 μN g-1 soil-1, denitrification to 4.1 μN g-1 soil-1 and 11.8 μN g-1 soil-1at 80% and 100%WFPS, respectively. The results confirm that the tested method allows for a direct and highly sensitive detection of N2 and N2O fluxes from soils and hence offers a sensitive tool to study denitrification and N turnover in terrestrial agro-ecosystems.

Legumes or nitrification inhibitors to reduce N2O emissions from subtropical cereal cropping systems in Oxisols?

The DAYCENT biogeochemical model was used to investigate how the use of fertilizers coated with nitrification inhibitors and the introduction of legumes in the crop rotation can affect subtropical cereal production and N2O emissions. The model was validated using comprehensive multi-seasonal, high-frequency dataset from two field investigations conducted on an Oxisol, which is the most common soil type in subtropical regions. Different N fertilizer rates were tested for each N management strategy and simulated under varying weather conditions. DAYCENT was able to reliably predict soil N dynamics, seasonal N2O emissions and crop production, although some discrepancies were observed in the treatments with low or no added N inputs and in the simulation of daily N2O fluxes. Simulations highlighted that the high clay content and the relatively low C levels of the Oxisol analyzed in this study limit the chances for significant amounts of N to be lost via deep leaching or denitrification. The application of urea coated with a nitrification inhibitor was the most effective strategy to minimize N2O emissions. This strategy however did not increase yields since the nitrification inhibitor did not substantially decrease overall N losses compared to conventional urea. Simulations indicated that replacing part of crop N requirements with N mineralized by legume residues is the most effective strategy to reduce N2O emissions and support cereal productivity. The results of this study show that legumes have significant potential to enhance the sustainable and profitable intensification of subtropical cereal cropping systems in Oxisols.

Legumes or nitrification inhibitors to reduce {N2O} emissions from subtropical cereal cropping systems in Oxisols?

The DAYCENT biogeochemical model was used to investigate how the use of fertilizers coated with nitrification inhibitors and the introduction of legumes in the crop rotation can affect subtropical cereal production and {N2O} emissions. The model was validated using comprehensive multi-seasonal, high-frequency dataset from two field investigations conducted on an Oxisol, which is the most common soil type in subtropical regions. Different N fertilizer rates were tested for each N management strategy and simulated under varying weather conditions. DAYCENT was able to reliably predict soil N dynamics, seasonal {N2O} emissions and crop production, although some discrepancies were observed in the treatments with low or no added N inputs and in the simulation of daily {N2O} fluxes. Simulations highlighted that the high clay content and the relatively low C levels of the Oxisol analyzed in this study limit the chances for significant amounts of N to be lost via deep leaching or denitrification. The application of urea coated with a nitrification inhibitor was the most effective strategy to minimize {N2O} emissions. This strategy however did not increase yields since the nitrification inhibitor did not substantially decrease overall N losses compared to conventional urea. Simulations indicated that replacing part of crop N requirements with N mineralized by legume residues is the most effective strategy to reduce {N2O} emissions and support cereal productivity. The results of this study show that legumes have significant potential to enhance the sustainable and profitable intensification of subtropical cereal cropping systems in Oxisols.

Soil moisture content determines the effect of the urease inhibitor NBPT on N2O emissions

Among the mitigation strategies to prevent nitrogen (N) losses from ureic fertilizers, urease inhibitors (UIs) have been demonstrated to promote high N use efficiency by reducing ammonia (NH3) volatilization. In the last few years, some field experiments have also shown its effectiveness in reducing nitrous oxide (N2O) losses from fertilized soils under conditions of low soil moisture. An incubation experiment was carried out with the aim of assessing the main biotic mechanisms behind N2O emissions once that the UIs N-(n-butyl) thiophosphoric triamid (NBPT) and phenil phosphorodiamidate (PPDA) were applied with Urea (U) under different soil moisture conditions (40, 60 and 80 % water-filled pore space, WFPS). In the same study we tried to analyze to what extent soil WFPS regulates the effect of these inhibitors on N2O emissions. The use of PPDA in our study allowed us to compare the effect of NBPT with that of another commercially available urease inhibitor, aiming to see if the results were inhibitor-specific or not. Based on the results from this experiment, a WFPS (i.e. 60 %) was chosen for a second study (i.e. mesocosm experiment) aiming to assess the efficiency of the UIs to indirectly affect N2O emissions through influencing the pool of soil mineral N. The N2O emissions at 40 % WFPS were almost negligible, being significantly lower from all fertilized treatments than that produced at 60 and 80 % WFPS. When compared to U alone, NBPT+U reduced the N2O emissions at 60 % WFPS but had no effect at 80 % WFPS. The application of PPDA significantly increased the emissions with respect to U at 80 % WFPS whereas no significant effect was found at 60 %. At 80 % WFPS, denitrification was the main source of N2O emissions for all treatments. In the mesocosm study, the application of NBPT+U was an effective strategy to reduce N2O emissions (75 % reduction compared to U alone), due to a lower soil ammonium (NH4 +) content induced by the inhibitor. These results suggest that adequate management of the UI NBPT could provide, under certain soil conditions, an opportunity for mitigation of N2O emissions from fertilized soils.

Fertilization Management: Assessing New Techniques and Key Interactions to Increase Crop Yields With Less N2O Emissions

El óxido nitroso (N2O) es un potente gas de efecto invernadero (GHG) proveniente mayoritariamente de la fertilización nitrogenada de los suelos agrícolas. Identificar estrategias de manejo de la fertilización que reduzcan estas emisiones sin suponer un descenso de los rendimientos es vital tanto a nivel económico como medioambiental. Con ese propósito, en esta Tesis se han evaluado: (i) estrategias de manejo directo de la fertilización (inhibidores de la nitrificación/ureasa); y (ii) interacciones de los fertilizantes con (1) el manejo del agua, (2) residuos de cosecha y (3) diferentes especies de plantas. Para conseguirlo se llevaron a cabo meta-análisis, incubaciones de laboratorio, ensayos en invernadero y experimentos de campo. Los inhibidores de la nitrificación y de la actividad ureasa se proponen habitualmente como medidas para reducir las pérdidas de nitrógeno (N), por lo que su aplicación estaría asociada al uso eficiente del N por parte de los cultivos (NUE). Sin embargo, su efecto sobre los rendimientos es variable. Con el objetivo de evaluar en una primera fase su efectividad para incrementar el NUE y la productividad de los cultivos, se llevó a cabo un meta-análisis. Los inhibidores de la nitrificación dicyandiamide (DCD) y 3,4-dimetilepyrazol phosphate (DMPP) y el inhibidor de la ureasa N-(n-butyl) thiophosphoric triamide (NBPT) fueron seleccionados para el análisis ya que generalmente son considerados las mejores opciones disponibles comercialmente. Nuestros resultados mostraron que su uso puede ser recomendado con el fin de incrementar tanto el rendimiento del cultivo como el NUE (incremento medio del 7.5% y 12.9%, respectivamente). Sin embargo, se observó que su efectividad depende en gran medida de los factores medioambientales y de manejo de los estudios evaluados. Una mayor respuesta fue encontrada en suelos de textura gruesa, sistemas irrigados y/o en cultivos que reciben altas tasas de fertilizante nitrogenado. En suelos alcalinos (pH ≥ 8), el inhibidor de la ureasa NBPT produjo el mayor efecto. Dado que su uso representa un coste adicional para los agricultores, entender las mejores prácticas que permitan maximizar su efectividad es necesario para posteriormente realizar comparaciones efectivas con otras prácticas que incrementen la productividad de los cultivos y el NUE. En base a los resultados del meta-análisis, se seleccionó el NBPT como un inhibidor con gran potencial. Inicialmente desarrollado para reducir la volatilización de amoniaco (NH3), en los últimos años algunos investigadores han demostrado en estudios de campo un efecto mitigador de este inhibidor sobre las pérdidas de N2O provenientes de suelos fertilizados bajo condiciones de baja humedad del suelo. Dada la alta variabilidad de los experimentos de campo, donde la humedad del suelo cambia rápidamente, ha sido imposible entender mecanísticamente el potencial de los inhibidores de la ureasa (UIs) para reducir emisiones de N2O y su dependencia con respecto al porcentaje de poros llenos de agua del suelo (WFPS). Por lo tanto se realizó una incubación en laboratorio con el propósito de evaluar cuál es el principal mecanismo biótico tras las emisiones de N2O cuando se aplican UIs bajo diferentes condiciones de humedad del suelo (40, 60 y 80% WFPS), y para analizar hasta qué punto el WFPS regula el efecto del inhibidor sobre las emisiones de N2O. Un segundo UI (i.e. PPDA) fue utilizado para comparar el efecto del NBPT con el de otro inhibidor de la ureasa disponible comercialmente; esto nos permitió comprobar si el efecto de NBPT es específico de ese inhibidor o no. Las emisiones de N2O al 40% WFPS fueron despreciables, siendo significativamente más bajas que las de todos los tratamientos fertilizantes al 60 y 80% WFPS. Comparado con la urea sin inhibidor, NBPT+U redujo las emisiones de N2O al 60% WFPS pero no tuvo efecto al 80% WFPS. La aplicación de PPDA incrementó significativamente las emisiones con respecto a la urea al 80% WFPS mientras que no se encontró un efecto significativo al 60% WFPS. Al 80% WFPS la desnitrificación fue la principal fuente de las emisiones de N2O en todos los tratamientos mientras que al 60% tanto la nitrificación como la desnitrificación tuvieron un papel relevante. Estos resultados muestran que un correcto manejo del NBPT puede suponer una estrategia efectiva para mitigar las emisiones de N2O. Con el objetivo de trasladar nuestros resultados de los estudios previos a condiciones de campo reales, se desarrolló un experimento en el que se evaluó la efectividad del NBPT para reducir pérdidas de N y aumentar la productividad durante un cultivo de cebada (Hordeum vulgare L.) en secano Mediterráneo. Se determinó el rendimiento del cultivo, las concentraciones de N mineral del suelo, el carbono orgánico disuelto (DOC), el potencial de desnitrificación, y los flujos de NH3, N2O y óxido nítrico (NO). La adición del inhibidor redujo las emisiones de NH3 durante los 30 días posteriores a la aplicación de urea en un 58% y las emisiones netas de N2O y NO durante los 95 días posteriores a la aplicación de urea en un 86 y 88%, respectivamente. El uso de NBPT también incrementó el rendimiento en grano en un 5% y el consumo de N en un 6%, aunque ninguno de estos incrementos fue estadísticamente significativo. Bajo las condiciones experimentales dadas, estos resultados demuestran el potencial del inhibidor de la ureasa NBPT para mitigar las emisiones de NH3, N2O y NO provenientes de suelos arables fertilizados con urea, mediante la ralentización de la hidrólisis de la urea y posterior liberación de menores concentraciones de NH4 + a la capa superior del suelo. El riego por goteo combinado con la aplicación dividida de fertilizante nitrogenado disuelto en el agua de riego (i.e. fertirriego por goteo) se considera normalmente una práctica eficiente para el uso del agua y de los nutrientes. Algunos de los principales factores (WFPS, NH4 + y NO3 -) que regulan las emisiones de GHGs (i.e. N2O, CO2 y CH4) y NO pueden ser fácilmente manipulados por medio del fertirriego por goteo sin que se generen disminuciones del rendimiento. Con ese propósito se evaluaron opciones de manejo para reducir estas emisiones en un experimento de campo durante un cultivo de melón (Cucumis melo L.). Los tratamientos incluyeron distintas frecuencias de riego (semanal/diario) y tipos de fertilizantes nitrogenados (urea/nitrato cálcico) aplicados por fertirriego. Fertirrigar con urea en lugar de nitrato cálcico aumentó las emisiones de N2O y NO por un factor de 2.4 y 2.9, respectivamente (P < 0.005). El riego diario redujo las emisiones de NO un 42% (P < 0.005) pero aumentó las emisiones de CO2 un 21% (P < 0.05) comparado con el riego semanal. Analizando el Poder de Calentamiento global en base al rendimiento así como los factores de emisión del NO, concluimos que el fertirriego semanal con un fertilizante de tipo nítrico es la mejor opción para combinar productividad agronómica con sostenibilidad medioambiental en este tipo de agroecosistemas. Los suelos agrícolas en las áreas semiáridas Mediterráneas se caracterizan por su bajo contenido en materia orgánica y bajos niveles de fertilidad. La aplicación de residuos de cosecha y/o abonos es una alternativa sostenible y eficiente desde el punto de vista económico para superar este problema. Sin embargo, estas prácticas podrían inducir cambios importantes en las emisiones de N2O de estos agroecosistemas, con impactos adicionales en las emisiones de CO2. En este contexto se llevó a cabo un experimento de campo durante un cultivo de cebada (Hordeum vulgare L.) bajo condiciones Mediterráneas para evaluar el efecto de combinar residuos de cosecha de maíz con distintos inputs de fertilizantes nitrogenados (purín de cerdo y/o urea) en estas emisiones. La incorporación de rastrojo de maíz incrementó las emisiones de N2O durante el periodo experimental un 105%. Sin embargo, las emisiones de NO se redujeron significativamente en las parcelas enmendadas con rastrojo. La sustitución parcial de urea por purín de cerdo redujo las emisiones netas de N2O un 46 y 39%, con y sin incorporación de residuo de cosecha respectivamente. Las emisiones netas de NO se redujeron un 38 y un 17% para estos mismos tratamientos. El ratio molar DOC:NO3 - demostró predecir consistentemente las emisiones de N2O y NO. El efecto principal de la interacción entre el fertilizante nitrogenado y el rastrojo de maíz se dio a los 4-6 meses de su aplicación, generando un aumento del N2O y una disminución del NO. La sustitución de urea por purín de cerdo puede considerarse una buena estrategia de manejo dado que el uso de este residuo orgánico redujo las emisiones de óxidos de N. Los pastos de todo el mundo proveen numerosos servicios ecosistémicos pero también suponen una importante fuente de emisión de N2O, especialmente en respuesta a la deposición de N proveniente del ganado mientras pasta. Para explorar el papel de las plantas como mediadoras de estas emisiones, se analizó si las emisiones de N2O dependen de la riqueza en especies herbáceas y/o de la composición específica de especies, en ausencia y presencia de una deposición de orina. Las hipótesis fueron: 1) las emisiones de N2O tienen una relación negativa con la productividad de las plantas; 2) mezclas de cuatro especies generan menores emisiones que monocultivos (dado que su productividad será mayor); 3) las emisiones son menores en combinaciones de especies con distinta morfología radicular y alta biomasa de raíz; y 4) la identidad de las especies clave para reducir el N2O depende de si hay orina o no. Se establecieron monocultivos y mezclas de dos y cuatro especies comunes en pastos con rasgos funcionales divergentes: Lolium perenne L. (Lp), Festuca arundinacea Schreb. (Fa), Phleum pratense L. (Php) y Poa trivialis L. (Pt), y se cuantificaron las emisiones de N2O durante 42 días. No se encontró relación entre la riqueza en especies y las emisiones de N2O. Sin embargo, estas emisiones fueron significativamente menores en ciertas combinaciones de especies. En ausencia de orina, las comunidades de plantas Fa+Php actuaron como un sumidero de N2O, mientras que los monocultivos de estas especies constituyeron una fuente de N2O. Con aplicación de orina la comunidad Lp+Pt redujo (P < 0.001) las emisiones de N2O un 44% comparado con los monocultivos de Lp. Las reducciones de N2O encontradas en ciertas combinaciones de especies pudieron explicarse por una productividad total mayor y por una complementariedad en la morfología radicular. Este estudio muestra que la composición de especies herbáceas es un componente clave que define las emisiones de N2O de los ecosistemas de pasto. La selección de combinaciones de plantas específicas en base a la deposición de N esperada puede, por lo tanto, ser clave para la mitigación de las emisiones de N2O. ABSTRACT Nitrous oxide (N2O) is a potent greenhouse gas (GHG) directly linked to applications of nitrogen (N) fertilizers to agricultural soils. Identifying mitigation strategies for these emissions based on fertilizer management without incurring in yield penalties is of economic and environmental concern. With that aim, this Thesis evaluated: (i) the use of nitrification and urease inhibitors; and (ii) interactions of N fertilizers with (1) water management, (2) crop residues and (3) plant species richness/identity. Meta-analysis, laboratory incubations, greenhouse mesocosm and field experiments were carried out in order to understand and develop effective mitigation strategies. Nitrification and urease inhibitors are proposed as means to reduce N losses, thereby increasing crop nitrogen use efficiency (NUE). However, their effect on crop yield is variable. A meta-analysis was initially conducted to evaluate their effectiveness at increasing NUE and crop productivity. Commonly used nitrification inhibitors (dicyandiamide (DCD) and 3,4-dimethylepyrazole phosphate (DMPP)) and the urease inhibitor N-(n-butyl) thiophosphoric triamide (NBPT) were selected for analysis as they are generally considered the best available options. Our results show that their use can be recommended in order to increase both crop yields and NUE (grand mean increase of 7.5% and 12.9%, respectively). However, their effectiveness was dependent on the environmental and management factors of the studies evaluated. Larger responses were found in coarse-textured soils, irrigated systems and/or crops receiving high nitrogen fertilizer rates. In alkaline soils (pH ≥ 8), the urease inhibitor NBPT produced the largest effect size. Given that their use represents an additional cost for farmers, understanding the best management practices to maximize their effectiveness is paramount to allow effective comparison with other practices that increase crop productivity and NUE. Based on the meta-analysis results, NBPT was identified as a mitigation option with large potential. Urease inhibitors (UIs) have shown to promote high N use efficiency by reducing ammonia (NH3) volatilization. In the last few years, however, some field researches have shown an effective mitigation of UIs over N2O losses from fertilized soils under conditions of low soil moisture. Given the inherent high variability of field experiments where soil moisture content changes rapidly, it has been impossible to mechanistically understand the potential of UIs to reduce N2O emissions and its dependency on the soil water-filled pore space (WFPS). An incubation experiment was carried out aiming to assess what is the main biotic mechanism behind N2O emission when UIs are applied under different soil moisture conditions (40, 60 and 80% WFPS), and to analyze to what extent the soil WFPS regulates the effect of the inhibitor over N2O emissions. A second UI (i.e. PPDA) was also used aiming to compare the effect of NBPT with that of another commercially available urease inhibitor; this allowed us to see if the effect of NBPT was inhibitor-specific or not. The N2O emissions at 40% WFPS were almost negligible, being significantly lower from all fertilized treatments than that produced at 60 and 80% WFPS. Compared to urea alone, NBPT+U reduced the N2O emissions at 60% WFPS but had no effect at 80% WFPS. The application of PPDA significantly increased the emissions with respect to U at 80% WFPS whereas no significant effect was found at 60% WFPS. At 80% WFPS denitrification was the main source of N2O emissions for all treatments. Both nitrification and denitrification had a determinant role on these emissions at 60% WFPS. These results suggest that adequate management of the UI NBPT can provide, under certain soil conditions, an opportunity for N2O mitigation. We translated our previous results to realistic field conditions by means of a field experiment with a barley crop (Hordeum vulgare L.) under rainfed Mediterranean conditions in which we evaluated the effectiveness of NBPT to reduce N losses and increase crop yields. Crop yield, soil mineral N concentrations, dissolved organic carbon (DOC), denitrification potential, NH3, N2O and nitric oxide (NO) fluxes were measured during the growing season. The inclusion of the inhibitor reduced NH3 emissions in the 30 d following urea application by 58% and net N2O and NO emissions in the 95 d following urea application by 86 and 88%, respectively. NBPT addition also increased grain yield by 5% and N uptake by 6%, although neither increase was statistically significant. Under the experimental conditions presented here, these results demonstrate the potential of the urease inhibitor NBPT in abating NH3, N2O and NO emissions from arable soils fertilized with urea, slowing urea hydrolysis and releasing lower concentrations of NH4 + to the upper soil layer. Drip irrigation combined with split application of N fertilizer dissolved in the irrigation water (i.e. drip fertigation) is commonly considered best management practice for water and nutrient efficiency. Some of the main factors (WFPS, NH4 + and NO3 -) regulating the emissions of GHGs (i.e. N2O, carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4)) and NO can easily be manipulated by drip fertigation without yield penalties. In this study, we tested management options to reduce these emissions in a field experiment with a melon (Cucumis melo L.) crop. Treatments included drip irrigation frequency (weekly/daily) and type of N fertilizer (urea/calcium nitrate) applied by fertigation. Crop yield, environmental parameters, soil mineral N concentrations, N2O, NO, CH4, and CO2 fluxes were measured during the growing season. Fertigation with urea instead of calcium nitrate increased N2O and NO emissions by a factor of 2.4 and 2.9, respectively (P < 0.005). Daily irrigation reduced NO emissions by 42% (P < 0.005) but increased CO2 emissions by 21% (P < 0.05) compared with weekly irrigation. Based on yield-scaled Global Warming Potential as well as NO emission factors, we conclude that weekly fertigation with a NO3 --based fertilizer is the best option to combine agronomic productivity with environmental sustainability. Agricultural soils in semiarid Mediterranean areas are characterized by low organic matter contents and low fertility levels. Application of crop residues and/or manures as amendments is a cost-effective and sustainable alternative to overcome this problem. However, these management practices may induce important changes in the nitrogen oxide emissions from these agroecosystems, with additional impacts on CO2 emissions. In this context, a field experiment was carried out with a barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) crop under Mediterranean conditions to evaluate the effect of combining maize (Zea mays L.) residues and N fertilizer inputs (organic and/or mineral) on these emissions. Crop yield and N uptake, soil mineral N concentrations, dissolved organic carbon (DOC), denitrification capacity, N2O, NO and CO2 fluxes were measured during the growing season. The incorporation of maize stover increased N2O emissions during the experimental period by c. 105 %. Conversely, NO emissions were significantly reduced in the plots amended with crop residues. The partial substitution of urea by pig slurry reduced net N2O emissions by 46 and 39 %, with and without the incorporation of crop residues respectively. Net emissions of NO were reduced 38 and 17 % for the same treatments. Molar DOC:NO3 - ratio was found to be a robust predictor of N2O and NO fluxes. The main effect of the interaction between crop residue and N fertilizer application occurred in the medium term (4-6 month after application), enhancing N2O emissions and decreasing NO emissions as consequence of residue incorporation. The substitution of urea by pig slurry can be considered a good management strategy since N2O and NO emissions were reduced by the use of the organic residue. Grassland ecosystems worldwide provide many important ecosystem services but they also function as a major source of N2O, especially in response to N deposition by grazing animals. In order to explore the role of plants as mediators of these emissions, we tested whether and how N2O emissions are dependent on grass species richness and/or specific grass species composition in the absence and presence of urine deposition. We hypothesized that: 1) N2O emissions relate negatively to plant productivity; 2) four-species mixtures have lower emissions than monocultures (as they are expected to be more productive); 3) emissions are lowest in combinations of species with diverging root morphology and high root biomass; and 4) the identity of the key species that reduce N2O emissions is dependent on urine deposition. We established monocultures and two- and four-species mixtures of common grass species with diverging functional traits: Lolium perenne L. (Lp), Festuca arundinacea Schreb. (Fa), Phleum pratense L. (Php) and Poa trivialis L. (Pt), and quantified N2O emissions for 42 days. We found no relation between plant species richness and N2O emissions. However, N2O emissions were significantly reduced in specific plant species combinations. In the absence of urine, plant communities of Fa+Php acted as a sink for N2O, whereas the monocultures of these species constituted a N2O source. With urine application Lp+Pt plant communities reduced (P < 0.001) N2O emissions by 44% compared to monocultures of Lp. Reductions in N2O emissions by species mixtures could be explained by total biomass productivity and by complementarity in root morphology. Our study shows that plant species composition is a key component underlying N2O emissions from grassland ecosystems. Selection of specific grass species combinations in the context of the expected nitrogen deposition regimes may therefore provide a key management practice for mitigation of N2O emissions.

A flexible Bayesian model for describing temporal variability of N2O emissions from an Australian pasture

Soil-based emissions of nitrous oxide (N2O), a well-known greenhouse gas, have been associated with changes in soil water-filled pore space (WFPS) and soil temperature in many previous studies. However, it is acknowledged that the environment-N2O relationship is complex and still relatively poorly unknown. In this article, we employed a Bayesian model selection approach (Reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo) to develop a data-informed model of the relationship between daily N2O emissions and daily WFPS and soil temperature measurements between March 2007 and February 2009 from a soil under pasture in Queensland, Australia, taking seasonal factors and time-lagged effects into account. The model indicates a very strong relationship between a hybrid seasonal structure and daily N2O emission, with the latter substantially increased in summer. Given the other variables in the model, daily soil WFPS, lagged by a week, had a negative influence on daily N2O; there was evidence of a nonlinear positive relationship between daily soil WFPS and daily N2O emission; and daily soil temperature tended to have a linear positive relationship with daily N2O emission when daily soil temperature was above a threshold of approximately 19°C. We suggest that this flexible Bayesian modeling approach could facilitate greater understanding of the shape of the covariate-N2O flux relation and detection of effect thresholds in the natural temporal variation of environmental variables on N2O emission.

A stochastic neighborhood conditional autoregressive model for spatial data

A spatial process observed over a lattice or a set of irregular regions is usually modeled using a conditionally autoregressive (CAR) model. The neighborhoods within a CAR model are generally formed deterministically using the inter-distances or boundaries between the regions. An extension of CAR model is proposed in this article where the selection of the neighborhood depends on unknown parameter(s). This extension is called a Stochastic Neighborhood CAR (SNCAR) model. The resulting model shows flexibility in accurately estimating covariance structures for data generated from a variety of spatial covariance models. Specific examples are illustrated using data generated from some common spatial covariance functions as well as real data concerning radioactive contamination of the soil in Switzerland after the Chernobyl accident.

Weather variability and influenza A (H7N9) transmission in Shanghai, China: A Bayesian spatial analysis

Abstract Background A novel avian influenza A (H7N9) virus was first found in humans in Shanghai, and infected over 433 patients in China. To date, very little is known about the spatiotemporal variability or environmental drivers of the risk of H7N9 infection. This study explored the spatial and temporal variation of H7N9 infection and assessed the effects of temperature and rainfall on H7N9 incidence. Methods A Bayesian spatial conditional autoregressive (CAR) model was used to assess the spatiotemporal distribution of the risk of H7N9 infection in Shanghai, by district and fortnight for the period 19th February–14th April 2013. Data on daily laboratory-confirmed H7N9 cases, and weather variability including temperature (°C) and rainfall (mm) were obtained from the Chinese Information System for Diseases Control and Prevention and Chinese Meteorological Data Sharing Service System, respectively, and aggregated by fortnight. Results High spatial variations in the H7N9 risk were mainly observed in the east and centre of Shanghai municipality. H7N9 incidence rate was significantly associated with fortnightly mean temperature (Relative Risk (RR): 1.54; 95% credible interval (CI): 1.22–1.94) and fortnightly mean rainfall (RR: 2.86; 95% CI: 1.47–5.56). Conclusion There was a substantial variation in the spatiotemporal distribution of H7N9 infection across different districts in Shanghai. Optimal temperature and rainfall may be one of the driving forces for H7N9.

Bayesian estimation of the dynamics of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza transmission in Queensland: A space–time SIR-based model

Background A pandemic strain of influenza A spread rapidly around the world in 2009, now referred to as pandemic (H1N1) 2009. This study aimed to examine the spatiotemporal variation in the transmission rate of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 associated with changes in local socio-environmental conditions from May 7–December 31, 2009, at a postal area level in Queensland, Australia. Method We used the data on laboratory-confirmed H1N1 cases to examine the spatiotemporal dynamics of transmission using a flexible Bayesian, space–time, Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) modelling approach. The model incorporated parameters describing spatiotemporal variation in H1N1 infection and local socio-environmental factors. Results The weekly transmission rate of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 was negatively associated with the weekly area-mean maximum temperature at a lag of 1 week (LMXT) (posterior mean: −0.341; 95% credible interval (CI): −0.370–−0.311) and the socio-economic index for area (SEIFA) (posterior mean: −0.003; 95% CI: −0.004–−0.001), and was positively associated with the product of LMXT and the weekly area-mean vapour pressure at a lag of 1 week (LVAP) (posterior mean: 0.008; 95% CI: 0.007–0.009). There was substantial spatiotemporal variation in transmission rate of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 across Queensland over the epidemic period. High random effects of estimated transmission rates were apparent in remote areas and some postal areas with higher proportion of indigenous populations and smaller overall populations. Conclusions Local SEIFA and local atmospheric conditions were associated with the transmission rate of pandemic (H1N1) 2009. The more populated regions displayed consistent and synchronized epidemics with low average transmission rates. The less populated regions had high average transmission rates with more variations during the H1N1 epidemic period.

Soil N availability, rather than N deposition, controls indirect N2O emissions

Ammonia volatilised and re-deposited to the landscape is an indirect N2O emission source. This study established a relationship between N2O emissions, low magnitude NH4 deposition (0–30  kg N ha − 1 ), and soil moisture content in two soils using in-vessel incubations. Emissions from the clay soil peaked ( < 0.002 g N [ g soil ] − 1 min − 1 ) from 85 to 93% WFPS (water filled pore space), increasing to a plateau as remaining mineral-N increased. Peak N2O emissions for the sandy soil were much lower ( < 5 × 10 − 5 μg N [ g soil ] − 1 min − 1 ) and occurred at about 60% WFPS, with an indistinct relationship with increasing resident mineral N due to the low rate of nitrification in that soil. Microbial community and respiration data indicated that the clay soil was dominated by denitrifiers and was more biologically active than the sandy soil. However, the clay soil also had substantial nitrifier communities even under peak emission conditions. A process-based mathematical denitrification model was well suited to the clay soil data where all mineral-N was assumed to be nitrified ( R 2 = 90 % ), providing a substrate for denitrification. This function was not well suited to the sandy soil where nitrification was much less complete. A prototype relationship representing mineral-N pool conversions (NO3− and NH4+) was proposed based on time, pool concentrations, moisture relationships, and soil rate constants (preliminary testing only). A threshold for mineral-N was observed: emission of N2O did not occur from the clay soil for mineral-N <70 mg ( kg of soil ) − 1 , suggesting that soil N availability controls indirect N2O emissions. This laboratory process investigation challenges the IPCC approach which predicts indirect emissions from atmospheric N deposition alone.

Non-linear response of soil N2O emissions to nitrogen fertiliser in a cotton-fallow rotation in sub-tropical Australia

Nitrogen fertiliser is a major source of atmospheric N2O and over recent years there is growing evidence for a non-linear, exponential relationship between N fertiliser application rate and N2O emissions. However, there is still high uncertainty around the relationship of N fertiliser rate and N2O emissions for many cropping systems. We conducted year-round measurements of N2O emission and lint yield in four N rate treatments (0, 90, 180 and 270 kg N ha-1) in a cotton-fallow rotation on a black vertosol in Australia. We observed a nonlinear exponential response of N2O emissions to increasing N fertiliser rates with cumulative annual N2O emissions of 0.55 kg N ha-1, 0.67kg N ha-1, 1.07 kg N ha-1 and 1.89 kg N ha-1 for the four respective N fertiliser rates while no N response to yield occurred above 180N. The N fertiliser induced annual N2O EF factors increased from 0.13% to 0.29% and 0.50% for the 90N, 180N and 270N treatments respectively, significantly lower than the IPCC Tier 1 default value (1.0 %). This non-linear response suggests that an exponential N2O emissions model may be more appropriate for use in estimating emission of N2O from soils cultivated to cotton in Australia. It also demonstrates that improved agricultural N management practices can be adopted in cotton to substantially reduce N2O emissions without affecting yield potential.