Determinants of reelection in Portuguese municipal elections

This Work Project investigates the determinants of reelection using data on the 278 Portuguese mainland municipalities for the period 1976-2009. We implement a logit fixed effect model to control for the municipalities’ unobserved characteristics that remain constant over time. Political variables, such as the vote share of the incumbent’s party in previous election, the number of mayor’s consecutive mandates and abstention rate, are found to be relevant in explaining incumbent’s reelection. Moreover, as to the mayor’s individual characteristics, age and education contribute to explain reelection prospects. We also provide weak evidence that a higher degree of fiscal autonomy increases political turnover and that the good economic prospects of the municipality positively affect reelection. Finally, the residents’ level of education and the size of the municipal population have an explanatory power on mayor’s reelection. We perform several robustness checks to confirm these results.

Reelection incentives and political corruption : evidence from Brazil’s municipal audit reports

This paper uses a unique dataset of political corruption, constructed from municipal audit reports obtained from Brazil’s randomized anti-corruption program, to test whether reelection incentives affect the level of rent extraction of incumbent politicians. In order to identify reelection incentives, we use the existence of a term limit in Brazil’s municipal elections. We find that in municipalities where mayors are in their second and final term, there is significantly more corruption compared to similar municipalities where mayors are in their first-term. In particular, in municipalities with second-term mayors there is, on average, R$188,431 more diversion of resources and the incidence of irregularities is 23% higher. We also find more pronounced effects where the costs of rent-extraction are lower (municipalities without media and judicial presence), and the density of pivotal voters is higher (more political competition). Finally, we show that first-term mayors, while less corrupt, have a larger incidence of poor administration suggesting that there may exist a trade-off between corruption and quality in public good provision.

Betting on winner: the effect of local elections on corporate political activity outcomes

How can managers successfully access political rents by way of corporate political strategies (CPA)? Existing research has suggested several endogenous factors that correlate with CPA outcomes. I offer a more robust solution to this problem. Drawing on insights from the perspective of CPA as exchanges between firms and political decision-makers, and from the special interest politics of political economy, I develop and test a causal mechanism that links local elections, legislative bargaining and access to political rents at the national level. I conducted a natural experiment using regression discontinuity design and propensity score matching in municipal elections in Brazil to show that firms enjoy superior access to subsidized financing from the state-owned national development bank (BNDES) when they decide to invest in municipalities whose winning mayoral candidate is coalition-aligned with the national ruler. This effect fades away fades away as the level of competition in the local election decreases. The evidence implies that when managers bet on national coalition-aligned winners in close local elections, they positively affect CPA outcomes. I extend the exchange-based typology of corporate political strategies by offering a novel possibility of targeting voters with financial inducements, which I call a private local development strategy. Finally, these results show that firms exchange their project-execution capabilities for superior access to subsidized financing.

Extranjeros y poder municipal en la campaña bonaerense : Alcances e influencias en el control del poder municipal en la segunda mitad del siglo XIX

Este trabajo analiza el papel de los inmigrantes en el régimen municipal en la campaña bonaerense. Se indaga la relación entre los extranjeros y un poder local marcado por la dinámica de los avances fronterizos y la construcción de nuevos espacios económicos y sociales. Analizaremos los inicios del régimen en la década de 1850, la posición legal que los extranjeros habrían de ocupar y el papel del Estado provincial controlando esos mecanismos de representación. Se examinan los resultados de las elecciones municipales de 1886 en 16 partidos, con la intención de dimensionar los índices de participación que registraron las colectividades extranjeras

Extranjeros y poder municipal en la campaña bonaerense : Alcances e influencias en el control del poder municipal en la segunda mitad del siglo XIX

Este trabajo analiza el papel de los inmigrantes en el régimen municipal en la campaña bonaerense. Se indaga la relación entre los extranjeros y un poder local marcado por la dinámica de los avances fronterizos y la construcción de nuevos espacios económicos y sociales. Analizaremos los inicios del régimen en la década de 1850, la posición legal que los extranjeros habrían de ocupar y el papel del Estado provincial controlando esos mecanismos de representación. Se examinan los resultados de las elecciones municipales de 1886 en 16 partidos, con la intención de dimensionar los índices de participación que registraron las colectividades extranjeras

Extranjeros y poder municipal en la campaña bonaerense : Alcances e influencias en el control del poder municipal en la segunda mitad del siglo XIX

Este trabajo analiza el papel de los inmigrantes en el régimen municipal en la campaña bonaerense. Se indaga la relación entre los extranjeros y un poder local marcado por la dinámica de los avances fronterizos y la construcción de nuevos espacios económicos y sociales. Analizaremos los inicios del régimen en la década de 1850, la posición legal que los extranjeros habrían de ocupar y el papel del Estado provincial controlando esos mecanismos de representación. Se examinan los resultados de las elecciones municipales de 1886 en 16 partidos, con la intención de dimensionar los índices de participación que registraron las colectividades extranjeras

Gender, Politics and Democratisation in Cameroon

Gender perceptions, religious belief systems, and political thought have excluded women from politics, for ages, around the world. Combining feminist and modernisation theorists in my theoretical framework, I examine the trends in patriarchal Europe and I highlight the gender-sensitive model of the Nordic countries. Retracing local gender patterns from precolonial to postcolonial eras in sub-Saharan Africa, I explore the links between perceptions, needs, resources, education and women's political participation in Cameroon. Democratisation is supposed to open up political participation, to grant equal opportunities to all adults. One ironic feature of the liberalisation process in Cameroon has been the decrease of women in parliamentarian representation (14% in 1988, 6% in 1992, 5% in 1997 and 10% in 2002). What social, cultural and institutional mechanisms produced this paradoxical outcome, the exclusion of half the population? The gender complementarity of the indigenous context has been lost to male prevalence privileged by education, church, law, employment, economy and politics in the public sphere; most women are marginalised in the private sphere. Nation building and development have failed; ethnicism and individualism are growing. Some hope lies in the growing civil society. From two surveys and 21 focus groups across Cameroon, in 2000 and 2002, some significant results of the processed empirical data reveal low electoral registration (34.5% women and 65.9% men), contrasted by the willingness to run for municipal elections (33.3 % women and 45.2% men). The co-existence of customary and statutory laws, the corrupt political system and fraudulent practices, contribute to the marginalisation of women and men who are interested in politics. A large majority of female respondents consider female politicians more trustworthy and capable than their male counterparts; they even foresee the appointment of a female Prime Minister. The Nordic countries have institutionalised gender equality in their legislation, policies and practices. France has improved women's political inclusion with the parity laws; Rwanda is another model of women's representation, thanks to its post-conflict constitution. From my analysis, Cameroonian institutions, men and more so women, may learn and borrow from these experiences, in order to design and implement a sustainable and gender-balanced democracy. Keywords: democratisation, politics, gender equality, feminism, citizenship, Cameroon, Nordic countries, Finland, France, United Kingdom, quotas, societal social psychology.

Osallistuminen ja läpinäkyvyys kuntatasolla : tapaustutkimus Nicaraguasta

In this Master's thesis I go through the principals of the good governance. I apply these principals to the Nicaraguan context and especially in two rural municipalities in Chontales department. I clarify the development of the space of participation in Nicaraguan municipal level. I start my examination from the period when Somoza dictatorship ended and first open elections were held, and I end it to the municipal eleccions held in November 2008. These elections were robbed in 33 municipalities and because of this there started a crisis in Nicaragua and among the actors of development cooperation. As a methods of research I use two types of interview in the thesis, the interviews for the citizens and interviews for the experts. These interviews answer to my questions of the methods of participation. I also review the level of the trust of a citizen to an authority by asking if s/he voted in the municipal eleccions in November 2008. Furthermore, I define the work of municipal government in the point of view of the citizen. I also find out if a citizen wants to take more part in the decision making in her/his municipal. I have classified the types of citizens by the interviews I made. Due to this classification I explain how many people actually have opportunity to participate the dialogue of the municipal decision making and how many can follow the activity of the municipal governance. The result is that after the elections in November 2008 only one typed group can freely take part in the dialogue. This does not apply the principals of good governance, especially in subterms of participation and transparency. The incidents after the municipal elections have affected strongly on the co-operation of Finland and Nicaragua. Because of the fault of the elections Finland like the other co-operative countries brought down the directly paid budget support. This has caused a great economical crisis in Nicaragua which the covering will take a long time. The Master's thesis is a case study of two rural municipalities called Santo Tómas and Villa Sandino. Santo Tómas has a sandinista municipal government which is not legitimate. In Villa Sandino the government is liberal and legitimate.

Deputados e Prefeitos: o nacional e o local na estrutura de oportunidades políticas no Brasil

A elaboração dessa tese tem por finalidade contribuir para a discussão sobre o modelo de carreira política que vem se desenvolvendo no Brasil. O objetivo do trabalho é compreender a sua construção a partir da apreensão da lógica da tomada de decisão do legislador brasileiro na definição de sua trajetória profissional. Para isso, o estudo procurou estabelecer as motivações dos membros da Câmara dos Deputados diante das opções de carreira que se apresentam, no sentido de permanecer ou não na arena legislativa. A questão analisada é se a instituição está oferecendo atrativos aos seus membros para sua permanência, ou se estes estão alocados em outras instâncias. A hipótese-teste é a de que o Poder Executivo tem atraído os membros do Legislativo, desenhando um padrão de carreira política no qual as arenas se intercalariam Executivo e Legislativo assim como as esferas federal, estadual e municipal. A tese está estruturada em uma revisão das literaturas estrangeira e brasileira sobre carreira política, apresentando também um exame dos modelos de recrutamento e permanência na carreira parlamentar. São consideradas as influências de dois elementos estruturais da lógica política no Brasil. O primeiro é a estrutura federativa adotada no país a partir da Constituição de 1988 e o segundo é o seu sistema eleitoral e partidário, sobretudo o papel dos partidos políticos e do tipo de recrutamento de candidatos na adoção das estratégias de carreira de seus representantes. Procura-se entender o modo pelo qual o quadro criado pela conjunção dessas características gera, viabiliza ou impede a construção das carreiras políticas no Brasil e das ambições que as determinam. Os dados coletados na pesquisa compreendem as eleições para a Câmara dos Deputados e para a Prefeitura em todos os municípios do Brasil ocorridas nos últimos 20 anos. São analisadas as trajetórias prévias e futuras dos deputados federais que, durante o mandato, se candidataram ao cargo de Prefeito. A premissa aqui utilizada vem da visão de que sair do Parlamento pode ser a melhor estratégia − do ponto de vista eleitoral − para a ele poder retornar e a melhor estratégia para aqueles que desejam prosseguir em suas carreiras com maior segurança. E obter cargos junto ao Executivo pode dar acesso a recursos que não estão disponíveis aos parlamentares.