Multidimensional Heterogeneous Variable Prediction Based on Experts’ Statements

* The work was supported by the RFBR under Grant N07-01-00331a.

A new family of multivariate heavy-tailed distributions with variable marginal amounts of tailweight: Application to robust clustering

We propose a family of multivariate heavy-tailed distributions that allow variable marginal amounts of tailweight. The originality comes from introducing multidimensional instead of univariate scale variables for the mixture of scaled Gaussian family of distributions. In contrast to most existing approaches, the derived distributions can account for a variety of shapes and have a simple tractable form with a closed-form probability density function whatever the dimension. We examine a number of properties of these distributions and illustrate them in the particular case of Pearson type VII and t tails. For these latter cases, we provide maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters and illustrate their modelling flexibility on simulated and real data clustering examples.

A Classificação Internacional de Funcionalidade, Incapacidade e Saúde : um modelo multidimensional e multideterminado da funcionalidade em idosos assistidos na Rede

RESUMO: Os estudos sobre a funcionalidade da população idosa têm uma representação importante naquilo que é o atual conhecimento da demografia do mundo. Portugal posiciona-se e perspetiva-se como pertencendo aos países mais envelhecidos, possuindo uma rede de cuidados pós-agudos – a Rede Nacional de Cuidados Continuados Integrados (RNCCI)– que assiste uma parcela importante dessa população. Os aspetos conceptuais da funcionalidade de acordo com a OMS e operacionalizados pela Classificação Internacional de Funcionalidade (CIF), não mereceram até agora suficiente aplicabilidade no nosso país, inviabilizando a possibilidade de oferecermos contributos para a sua operacionalização. Da mesma forma, também os Core Sets da Classificação não têm sido sujeitos a processos de validação que contemplem amostras portuguesas, mantendo-se desconhecimento da especificidade dos fatores contextuais na nossa população. O presente estudo tem como objetivos conhecer a evolução da funcionalidade dos idosos assistidos na RNCCI na região do Algarve nas unidades de convalescença e média duração, validar o Core Set Geriátrico da OMS e propor uma versão abreviada da sua modalidade abrangente, no contexto destes cuidados. A amostra constituída por 451 idosos, dos quais 62,1% eram mulheres, revelou na pré-morbilidade níveis favoráveis de funcionalidade, com exceção para as Atividades Domésticas. Contudo, os mais idosos (≥ 85 anos), os indivíduos sem escolaridade, as mulheres e os viúvos/solteiros apresentaram mais casos desfavoráveis quando comparados com os seus pares. Na evolução da funcionalidade observámos melhorias significativas em todos os domínios avaliados, com diferenças relativamente à idade e à escolaridade; apesar dos resultados positivos os mais idosos e os indivíduos sem escolaridade apresentaram níveis inferiores de evolução. No entanto, a funcionalidade alcançada revelou ficar com resultados significativamente inferiores na comparação com aquela que os indivíduos possuíam na pré-morbilidade. Os modelos de regressão revelaram que as Funções Mentais, a Perceção do Estado de Saúde e a atividade Usar o Telefone, foram as variáveis que melhor explicaram os outcomes da funcionalidade alcançada. A validação do Core Set Geriátrico foi possível na maioria das categorias, sendo que foi no componente das Funções do Corpo onde esse processo revelou maior fragilidade. As Funções Neuromusculoesqueléticas e Relacionadas com o Movimento foram aquelas que registaram em ambos os momentos avaliativos frequências mais elevadas de deficiência, enquanto no componente Atividades & Participação isso ocorreu na atividade Utilização dos Movimentos Finos da Mão. Os capítulos Apoios e Relacionamentos e Atitudes foram considerados os Fatores Ambientais mais Facilitadores mas também com maior impacto Barreira. A proposta para o Core Set Geriátrico Abreviado resultou das categorias independentes que explicaram os modelos da funcionalidade alcançada e cujo resultado engloba um conjunto de 27 categorias, com um enfoque importante no componente Atividades/Participação de onde se destacam os domínios da Mobilidade e dos Auto Cuidados. A funcionalidade dos indivíduos e das populações deve ser considerada uma variável incontornável da Saúde Pública, cuja avaliação deve refletir uma abordagem biopsicossocial, apoiada na Classificação Internacional de Funcionalidade. A operacionalização da Classificação a partir dos Core Sets necessita de pesquisa mais aprofundada relativamente às caraterísticas psicométricas dos seus qualificadores e dos seus processos de validação.-----------ABSTRACT: The studies about the functioning of the elderly play an important role on what the present knowledge of the demography in the world is. Portugal figures high on the most aged countries, having a network of post-acute care - the National Network of Integrated Continuous Care (RNCCI) - which assists a large part of that population. The conceptual aspects of functioning according to WHO and operated by the International Classification of Functioning (ICF), have been insufficiently addressed concerning its adequate applicability in our country, hindering the contributions of its operation. In the same way, also the Core Sets of the Classification have not been subjected to validation procedures that include portuguese samples, keeping the unawareness of specificity of the contextual factors in our population. The objectives of the present study were to know the evolution of the functioning of the elderly assisted in the RNCCI in the Algarve region in units of convalescence and average duration, validate the WHO Geriatric Core Set and propose an abridged version of this comprehensive core set in this healthcare context. The sample was composed by 451 elderly people, of which 62.1% were women, they showed favourable levels in functioning in the pre-morbid state, except for Domestic Activities. However, the oldest (≥ 85 years), the individuals with no education, women and widowed/ unmarried showed more unfavourable cases when compared to their peers. In the evolution of functioning we observed significant improvements in all domains assessed, with diferences with respect to age and education. In spite of positive results, the oldest and the individuals with no education showed lower levels of evolution. However, the functioning achieved showed significantly lower results when compared to the those observed in pre-morbidity state. Regression models reveal that Mental Functions, the Perceived Health Status and the Use of the Phone activity, were the variables that better explain the functioning of the outcomes achieved. The validation of the Geriatric Core Set of ICF was possible in most categories, and Body Functions was the component where this process showed greatest weakness. Neuromusculoskeletal and Movement-Related Functions experienced in both evaluation times with higher rates of disability, while in the Activities & Participation component this occurred in the Fine Hand Use activity. The Support and Relationships and Attitudes chapters were considered the Environmental Factors most Facilitators but also with greater impact Barrier. The proposal for the Brief Geriatric Core Set has resulted from the independent categories that explained the regression models of functioning and includes a set of 27 categories, with na important emphasis on Activities & Participation component where we can highlight the areas of Mobility and Self Care domains. The functioning of individuals and populations should be considered as an unavoidable variable of Public Health, of which the assessment should reflect a biopsychosocial approach, based on the International Classification of Functioning. The operationalization of the Classification from the Core Sets requires further research regarding the psychometric characteristics of their qualifiers and their validation procedure.

An??lisis psicom??trico de la escala multidimensional de autoconcepto AF5 en una muestra de adolescentes y adultos de Catalu??a

Resumen tomado de la publicaci??n

La actitud y el rendimiento escolar en Matemáticas : un acercamiento multidimensional.

1) Determinar por qué se produce el rechazo de los alumnos hacia las Matemáticas y el bajo rendimiento en esta materia. 2) Estudiar conjuntamente toda la serie de variables que inciden en el rendimiento negativo de las Matemáticas. 1.024 profesores, entre los 23 y los 62 años; 2.680 alumnos, de los que 600 casos fueron considerados válidos. 313 eran niños y 255 niñas; las edades estaban entre los 9 y 15 años. 321 eran de zona rural y 274 de zona urbana; 3) La muestra de padres se mantuvo alrededor de 300, entre los 30 y 70 años para los padres y los 26 y 56 para las madres. Se llevó a cabo un análisis correlacional. Variables predictoras: a) variables sociales: sexo del alumno, nivel educativo de los padres, etc., b) variables aptitudinales: comprensión y fluidez verbal, rapidez de cálculo y razonamiento aritmético, c) variables actitudinales: actitudes del alumno hacia las asignaturas que forman el currículum escolar, hacia las Matemáticas en particular y las actitudes de padres y profesores hacia las mismas, d) variables perceptivas y atribucionales: que el propio alumno hace sobre sí mismo, que hace el profesor. También la percepción que profesor y alumno tienen uno sobre otro, e) variables de expectativas: notas habituales del niño en Matemáticas, nota que espera el niño, nota que estima el profesor, nota que espera el padre. 1) La aportación más importante le corresponde a la comprensión verbal, seguida de la rapidez de cálculo. La fluidez verbal no alcanzó significación; 2) El nivel educativo de los padres tiene una incidencia más destacada en razonamiento y comprensión verbal, que con rapidez de cálculo, fluidez verbal; 3) Los resultados obtenidos por el alumno en Matemáticas van de acuerdo con las percepciones del profesor; 4) La atribución de éxito o fracaso la refieren los niños a la razón de haber o no estudiado y el profesor al esfuerzo y luego al talento; 5) La relación entre actitud de los hijos y actitud de los padres, fue débil; menos significativa aún fue la actitud del profesor. 1) Existe una estrecha relación entre la habilidad específica y el rendimiento específico en una materia dada; 2) Las variables de expectativas son las que presentan valores más altos respecto al rendimiento del niño; 3) La sola variable expectativa de nota del profesor,explica un porcentaje superior de varianza en el rendimiento en Matemáticas que el total de las variables aptitudinales del niño. 4) Cuanto más se atribuye el éxito a causas externas, más probable es que las previsiones del profesor sean más exactas.

Optimization of multidimensional cross-section tables for few-group core calculations

Multigroup diffusion codes for three dimensional LWR core analysis use as input data pre-generated homogenized few group cross sections and discontinuity factors for certain combinations of state variables, such as temperatures or densities. The simplest way of compiling those data are tabulated libraries, where a grid covering the domain of state variables is defined and the homogenized cross sections are computed at the grid points. Then, during the core calculation, an interpolation algorithm is used to compute the cross sections from the table values. Since interpolation errors depend on the distance between the grid points, a determined refinement of the mesh is required to reach a target accuracy, which could lead to large data storage volume and a large number of lattice transport calculations. In this paper, a simple and effective procedure to optimize the distribution of grid points for tabulated libraries is presented. Optimality is considered in the sense of building a non-uniform point distribution with the minimum number of grid points for each state variable satisfying a given target accuracy in k-effective. The procedure consists of determining the sensitivity coefficients of k-effective to cross sections using perturbation theory; and estimating the interpolation errors committed with different mesh steps for each state variable. These results allow evaluating the influence of interpolation errors of each cross section on k-effective for any combination of state variables, and estimating the optimal distance between grid points.

Extreme Situations Prediction by MultidimenSional Heterogeneous Time Series Using Logical Decision Functions

* The work is supported by RFBR, grant 04-01-00858-a

Synthesis and Raman spectroscopic study of Mg/Al,Fe hydrotalcites with variable cationic ratios

Hydrotalcites of formula Mg6 (Fe,Al)2(OH)16(CO3).4H2O formed by intercalation with the carbonate anion as a function of divalent/trivalent cationic ratio have been successfully synthesised. The XRD patterns show variation in the d-spacing attributed to the size of the cation. Raman and infrared bands in the OH stretching region are assigned to (a) brucite layer OH stretching vibrations (b) water stretching bands and (c) water strongly hydrogen bonded to the carbonate anion. Multiple (CO3)2- symmetric stretching bands suggest that different types of (CO3)2- exist in the hydrotalcite interlayer. Increasing the cation ratio (Mg/Al,Fe) resulted in an increase in the combined intensity of the 2 Raman bands at around 3600 cm-1, attributed to Mg-OH stretching modes, and a shift of the overall band profile to higher wavenumbers. These observations are believed to be a result of the increase in magnesium in the structure. Raman spectroscopy shows a reduction in the symmetry of the carbonate, leading to the conclusion that the anions are bonded to the brucite-like hydroxyl surface and to the water in the interlayer. Water bending modes are identified in the infrared spectra at positions greater than 1630 cm-1, indicating the water is strongly hydrogen bonded to both the interlayer anions and the brucite-like surface.

Simulation and development of a mock circulation loop with variable compliance

Heart disease is attributed as the highest cause of death in the world. Although this could be alleviated by heart transplantation, there is a chronic shortage of donor hearts and so mechanical solutions are being considered. Currently, many Ventricular Assist Devices (VADs) are being developed worldwide in an effort to increase life expectancy and quality of life for end stage heart failure patients. Current pre-clinical testing methods for VADs involve laboratory testing using Mock Circulation Loops (MCLs), and in vivo testing in animal models. The research and development of highly accurate MCLs is vital to the continuous improvement of VAD performance. The first objective of this study was to develop and validate a mathematical model of a MCL. This model could then be used in the design and construction of a variable compliance chamber to improve the performance of an existing MCL as well as form the basis for a new miniaturised MCL. An extensive review of literature was carried out on MCLs and mathematical modelling of their function. A mathematical model of a MCL was then created in the MATLAB/SIMULINK environment. This model included variable features such as resistance, fluid inertia and volumes (resulting from the pipe lengths and diameters); compliance of Windkessel chambers, atria and ventricles; density of both fluid and compressed air applied to the system; gravitational effects on vertical columns of fluid; and accurately modelled actuators controlling the ventricle contraction. This model was then validated using the physical properties and pressure and flow traces produced from a previously developed MCL. A variable compliance chamber was designed to reproduce parameters determined by the mathematical model. The function of the variability was achieved by controlling the transmural pressure across a diaphragm to alter the compliance of the system. An initial prototype was tested in a previously developed MCL, and a variable level of arterial compliance was successfully produced; however, the complete range of compliance values required for accurate physiological representation was not able to be produced with this initial design. The mathematical model was then used to design a smaller physical mock circulation loop, with the tubing sizes adjusted to produce accurate pressure and flow traces whilst having an appropriate frequency response characteristic. The development of the mathematical model greatly assisted the general design of an in vitro cardiovascular device test rig, while the variable compliance chamber allowed simple and real-time manipulation of MCL compliance to allow accurate transition between a variety of physiological conditions. The newly developed MCL produced an accurate design of a mechanical representation of the human circulatory system for in vitro cardiovascular device testing and education purposes. The continued improvement of VAD test rigs is essential if VAD design is to improve, and hence improve quality of life and life expectancy for heart failure patients.