Étude du lien entre la qualité des pratiques parentales et la qualité des relations d’amitié des enfants selon la méthode des différences entre jumeaux monozygotes

L’étude utilise la méthode des différences entre jumeaux monozygotes pour analyser le lien entre les pratiques parentales positives ou hostiles-réactives de la mère à 29 mois et la qualité des relations d’amitié des enfants à 6 ans, tout en contrôlant une série de facteurs confondants tels le sexe, le revenu familial, le tempérament et le poids à la naissance. Un effet modérateur du sexe est aussi testé. La méthodologie nouvelle et particulière de cette recherche permet de contrôler de possibles corrélations gènes-environnement. Les résultats ne concordent pas tous avec les hypothèses et démontrent que 1) le jumeau ayant reçu le plus de pratiques parentales positives de la mère est celui dont l’ami évalue le plus négativement sa relation d’amitié à 6 ans et 2) le jumeau ayant reçu le plus de pratiques parentales hostiles-réactives de la mère est celui dont l’ami évalue le moins positivement sa relation d’amitié à la maternelle. Différentes pistes d’explications sont proposées pour comprendre les résultats et pour guider les études futures.

Childhood adversity and psychosis: examinig whether the association is due to genetic confounding using a monozygotic twin differences approach

Purpose: To test whether the association between childhood adversity and positive and negative psychotic experiences is due to genetic confounding. Method: Childhood adversity and psychotic experiences were assessed in a sample of 226 twins from the general population. A monozygotic (MZ) twin differences approach was used to assess possible genetic confounding. Results: In the whole sample, childhood adversity was significantly associated with positive (β =.45; SE=.16; p=.008) and negative psychotic experiences (β=.77; SE=.18; p<.01). Within-pair MZ twin differences in exposure to childhood adversity were significantly associated with differences in positive (β =.71; SE=.29; p=.016) and negative psychotic experiences (β =.98; SE=.38; p=.014) in a subsample of 86 MZ twin pairs. Conclusions: Individuals exposed to childhood adversity are more likely to report psychotic experiences. Furthermore, our findings indicate that unique environmental effects of childhood adversity contribute to the development of psychotic experiences.

Longitudinal reference ranges for fetal ultrasound biometry in twin pregnancies

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to establish longitudinal reference ranges for fetal ultrasound biometry measurements and growth parameters in twin pregnancies. METHOD: A total of 200 uncomplicated twin pregnancies before 21 weeks of gestation were recruited for this prospective, longitudinal study. Women who abandoned follow-up, pregnancies with unknown outcomes or pregnancies with complications were excluded. Ultrasound scans were performed every three weeks, and biparietal and occipitofrontal diameters, head and abdominal circumferences, and femur diaphysis length measurements were obtained for each fetus at each visit. Estimated fetal weight, biparietal/occipitofrontal diameter, head circumference/abdominal circumference, and femur diaphysis length/abdominal circumference ratios were also calculated. Multilevel regression analysis was performed on normalized data. RESULTS: A total of 807 ultrasound examinations were performed in 125 twin pregnancies between 14 and 38 weeks of gestation (6.5 +/- 1.4 scans/pregnancy). Regression analysis demonstrated significant correlations for all variables with gestational age, namely log of the biparietal diameter (r = 0.98), log of the occipitofrontal diameter (r = 0.98), log of the head circumference (r = 0.99), log of the abdominal circumference (r = 0.98), square root of the femur length (r = 0.99), log of the estimated fetal weight (r = 0.99), biparietal/occipitofrontal ratio (r = -0.11), head/abdomen circumference ratio (r = -0.56), and log of the femur length/abdominal circumference ratio (r = 0.61). Values corresponding to the 10th, 50th, and 90th percentiles for estimated fetal weight at 28, 32, and 36 weeks, respectively, were as follows: 937, 1,096, 1,284 g; 1,462, 1,720, 2,025 g; and 2,020, 2,399, 2,849 g. CONCLUSION: In twin pregnancies, fetal ultrasound biometry measurements and growth parameters show a significant correlation with gestational age.

Lowering blood alcohol content levels to save lives: The european experience

Road safety has become an increasing concern in developed countries due to the significant amount of mortal victims and the economic losses derived. Only in 2005 these losses rose to 200.000 million euros, a significant amount - approximately the 2% of its GDP- that easily justifies any public intervention. One tool used by governments to face this challenge is the enactment of stricter policies and regulations. Since drunk driving is one of the most important concerns of public authorities on this field, several European countries decided to lower their illegal Blood Alcohol Content levels to 0.5 mg/ml during the last decade. This study evaluates for the first time the effectiveness of this transition using European panel-based data (CARE) for the period 1991-2003 using the Differences-in-Differences method in a fixed effects estimation that allows for any pattern of correlation (Cluster-Robust). My results show the existence of positive impacts on certain groups of road users and for the whole population when the policy is accompanied by some enforcement interventions. Moreover, a time lag of more than two years is found in that effectiveness. Finally, I also assert the importance of controlling for serial correlation in the evaluation of this kind of policies.

Can vouchers deliver? An evaluation of subsidies for maternal health care in Cambodia

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the effect of vouchers for maternity care in public health-care facilities on the utilization of maternal health-care services in Cambodia. METHODS: The study involved data from the 2010 Cambodian Demographic and Health Survey, which covered births between 2005 and 2010. The effect of voucher schemes, first implemented in 2007, on the utilization of maternal health-care services was quantified using a difference-in-differences method that compared changes in utilization in districts with voucher schemes with changes in districts without them. FINDINGS: Overall, voucher schemes were associated with an increase of 10.1 percentage points (pp) in the probability of delivery in a public health-care facility; among women from the poorest 40% of households, the increase was 15.6 pp. Vouchers were responsible for about one fifth of the increase observed in institutional deliveries in districts with schemes. Universal voucher schemes had a larger effect on the probability of delivery in a public facility than schemes targeting the poorest women. Both types of schemes increased the probability of receiving postnatal care, but the increase was significant only for non-poor women. Universal, but not targeted, voucher schemes significantly increased the probability of receiving antenatal care. CONCLUSION: Voucher schemes increased deliveries in health centres and, to a lesser extent, improved antenatal and postnatal care. However, schemes that targeted poorer women did not appear to be efficient since these women were more likely than less poor women to be encouraged to give birth in a public health-care facility, even with universal voucher schemes.

Effects of the 80 km/h and variable speed limits on air pollution in the metropolitan area of Barcelona

In 2008 the regional government of Catalonia (Spain) reduced the maximum speed limit on several stretches of congested urban motorway in the Barcelona metropolitan area to 80 km/h, while in 2009 it introduced a variable speed system on other stretches of its metropolitan motorways. We use the differences-in-differences method, which enables a policy impact to be measured under specific conditions, to assess the impact of these policies on emissions of NOx and PM10. Empirical estimation indicate that reducing the speed limit to 80 km h-1 causes a 1.7 to 3.2% increase in NOx and 5.3 to 5.9% in PM10. By contrast, the variable speed policy reduced NOx and PM10 pollution by 7.7 to 17.1% and 14.5 to 17.3%. As such, a variable speed policy appears to be a more effective environmental policy than reducing the speed limit to a maximum of 80 km/h.

Lowering blood alcohol content levels to save lives: A European case study

Road safety has become an increasing concern in developed countries due to the significant amount of fatalities and the associated economic losses. Only in 2005 these losses rose to 200,000 million euros, a considerable sum ¿ approximately 2% of GDP ¿ that easily justifies any public intervention. One measure taken by governments to address this issue is to enact stricter policies and regulations. Since drunk driving is one of the greatest concerns among public authorities in this field, several European countries have lowered their illegal Blood Alcohol Content (BAC) levels to 0.5 mg/ml during the last decade. This study is the first evaluation of the effectiveness of this transition using European panel-based data (CARE) for the period 1991-2003 with the differences-in-differences method in a fixed effects estimation that allows for any pattern of correlation (Cluster-Robust). The results reveal a positive impact on certain groups of road users and on the whole population when the policy is accompanied by enforcement interventions. Moreover, positive results appeared after a time lag of over two years. Finally, I state the importance of controlling for serial correlation in the evaluation of this type of policy.

Lowering blood alcohol content levels to save lives: A European case study

Road safety has become an increasing concern in developed countries due to the significant amount of fatalities and the associated economic losses. Only in 2005 these losses rose to 200,000 million euros, a considerable sum ¿ approximately 2% of GDP ¿ that easily justifies any public intervention. One measure taken by governments to address this issue is to enact stricter policies and regulations. Since drunk driving is one of the greatest concerns among public authorities in this field, several European countries have lowered their illegal Blood Alcohol Content (BAC) levels to 0.5 mg/ml during the last decade. This study is the first evaluation of the effectiveness of this transition using European panel-based data (CARE) for the period 1991-2003 with the differences-in-differences method in a fixed effects estimation that allows for any pattern of correlation (Cluster-Robust). The results reveal a positive impact on certain groups of road users and on the whole population when the policy is accompanied by enforcement interventions. Moreover, positive results appeared after a time lag of over two years. Finally, I state the importance of controlling for serial correlation in the evaluation of this type of policy.

Avaliação de impacto do Programa Bilhete Único Intermunicipal do Estado do Rio de Janeiro

Este trabalho objetiva verificar o impacto na renda gerado pelo programa de subsídio tarifário para passageiros de transporte intermunicipal da região metropolitana do Estado do Rio de Janeiro (RMRJ), denominado Programa Bilhete Único Intermunicipal (BUI). Para cálculo do impacto foi utilizada a arrecadação do ICMS do comércio varejista como “proxy” da renda. O método para cálculo do impacto foi o de diferença de diferença (DD) para três definições distintas de grupos de tratamento e controle, considerando o período de janeiro de 2006 a janeiro de 2010 como pré-intervenção e fevereiro de 2010 a dezembro de 2014 como pós-intervenção. A primeira definição comparou a evolução de arrecadação do tributo entre os municípios participantes do programa e os municípios fluminenses situados na região limítrofe à RMRJ como grupo de controle. O segundo exercício manteve o mesmo grupo de controle, porém utilizou apenas os municípios sujeitos à intervenção situados a mais de 30 km de distância da capital Rio de Janeiro como grupo de tratamento. Por fim, como teste de robustez, os grupos de tratamento e controle foram selecionados utilizando o método de pareamento (matching). Através de três variações do modelo de DD para cada definição, foi possível encontrar resultados de impacto positivos na arrecadação de ICMS do comércio varejista para os municípios participantes do programa, em especial para os segundo e terceiro exercícios, o que sugere um aumento na renda de seus habitantes após a introdução do Bilhete Único.

Modelagem e simulação de um separador bifásico com inversão de fases induzida

The present work has the main goal to study the modeling and simulation of a biphasic separator with induced phase inversion, the MDIF, with the utilization of the finite differences method for the resolution of the partial differencial equations which describe the transport of contaminant s mass fraction inside the equipment s settling chamber. With this aim, was developed the deterministic differential model AMADDA, wich was admensionalizated and then semidiscretizated with the method of lines. The integration of the resultant system of ordinary differential equations was realized by means of a modified algorithm of the Adam-Bashfort- Moulton method, and the sthocastic optimization routine of Basin-Hopping was used in the model s parameter estimation procedure . With the aim to establish a comparative referential for the results obtained with the model AMADDA, were used experimental data presented in previous works of the MDIF s research group. The experimental data and those obtained with the model was assessed regarding its normality by means of the Shapiro-Wilk s test, and validated against the experimental results with the Student s t test and the Kruskal-Wallis s test, depending on the result. The results showed satisfactory performance of the model AMADDA in the evaluation of the MDIF s separation efficiency, being possible to determinate that at 1% significance level the calculated results are equivalent to those determinated experimentally in the reference works

Caracterização hidrogeológica e simulação numérica de fluxo em uma região situada no distrito industrial de Paulínia (SP)

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Estimativas da condutividade térmica dos minerais e rochas e influência de parâmetros térmicos e petrofísicos na resistividade aparente da formação

O presente estudo realiza estimativas da condutividade térmica dos principais minerais formadores de rochas, bem como estimativas da condutividade média da fase sólida de cinco litologias básicas (arenitos, calcários, dolomitos, anidritas e litologias argilosas). Alguns modelos térmicos foram comparados entre si, possibilitando a verificação daquele mais apropriado para representar o agregado de minerais e fluidos que compõem as rochas. Os resultados obtidos podem ser aplicados a modelamentos térmicos os mais variados. A metodologia empregada baseia-se em um algoritmo de regressão não-linear denominado de Busca Aleatória Controlada. O comportamento do algoritmo é avaliado para dados sintéticos antes de ser usado em dados reais. O modelo usado na regressão para obter a condutividade térmica dos minerais é o modelo geométrico médio. O método de regressão, usado em cada subconjunto litológico, forneceu os seguintes valores para a condutividade térmica média da fase sólida: arenitos 5,9 ± 1,33 W/mK, calcários 3.1 ± 0.12 W/mK, dolomitos 4.7 ± 0.56 W/mK, anidritas 6.3 ± 0.27 W/mK e para litologias argilosas 3.4 ± 0.48 W/mK. Na sequência, são fornecidas as bases para o estudo da difusão do calor em coordenadas cilíndricas, considerando o efeito de invasão do filtrado da lama na formação, através de uma adaptação da simulação de injeção de poços proveniente das teorias relativas à engenharia de reservatório. Com isto, estimam-se os erros relativos sobre a resistividade aparente assumindo como referência a temperatura original da formação. Nesta etapa do trabalho, faz-se uso do método de diferenças finitas para avaliar a distribuição de temperatura poço-formação. A simulação da invasão é realizada, em coordenadas cilíndricas, através da adaptação da equação de Buckley-Leverett em coordenadas cartesianas. Efeitos como o aparecimento do reboco de lama na parede do poço, gravidade e pressão capilar não são levados em consideração. A partir das distribuições de saturação e temperatura, obtém-se a distribuição radial de resistividade, a qual é convolvida com a resposta radial da ferramenta de indução (transmissor-receptor) resultando na resistividade aparente da formação. Admitindo como referência a temperatura original da formação, são obtidos os erros relativos da resistividade aparente. Através da variação de alguns parâmetros, verifica-se que a porosidade e a saturação original da formação podem ser responsáveis por enormes erros na obtenção da resistividade, principalmente se tais "leituras" forem realizadas logo após a perfuração (MWD). A diferença de temperatura entre poço e formação é a principal causadora de tais erros, indicando que em situações onde esta diferença de temperatura seja grande, perfilagens com ferramentas de indução devam ser realizadas de um a dois dias após a perfuração do poço.

Three Essays in Economics of Gender

During recent decades, economists' interest in gender-related issues has risen. Researchers aim to show how economic theory can be applied to gender related topics such as peer effect, labor market outcomes, and education. This dissertation aims to contribute to our understandings of the interaction, inequality and sources of differences across genders, and it consists of three empirical papers in the research area of gender economics. The aim of the first paper ("Separating gender composition effect from peer effects in education") is to demonstrate the importance of considering endogenous peer effects in order to identify gender composition effect. This fact is analytically illustrated by employing Manski's (1993) linear-in-means model. The paper derives an innovative solution to the simultaneous identification of endogenous and exogenous peer effects: gender composition effect of interest is estimated from auxiliary reduced-form estimates after identifying the endogenous peer effect by using Graham (2008) variance restriction method. The paper applies this methodology to two different data sets from American and Italian schools. The motivation of the second paper ("Gender differences in vulnerability to an economic crisis") is to analyze the different effect of recent economic crisis on the labor market outcome of men and women. Using triple differences method (before-after crisis, harder-milder hit sectors, men-women) the paper used British data at the occupation level and shows that men suffer more than women in terms of probability of losing their job. Several explanations for the findings are proposed. The third paper ("Gender gap in educational outcome") is concerned with a controversial academic debate on the existence, degree and origin of the gender gap in test scores. The existence of a gap both in mean scores and the variability around the mean is documented and analyzed. The origins of the gap are investigated by looking at wide range of possible explanations.

A level set approach for the analysis of flow and compaction during resin infusion in composite materials

Fluid flow and fabric compaction during vacuum assisted resin infusion (VARI) of composite materials was simulated using a level set-based approach. Fluid infusion through the fiber preform was modeled using Darcy’s equations for the fluid flow through a porous media. The stress partition between the fluid and the fiber bed was included by means of Terzaghi’s effective stress theory. Tracking the fluid front during infusion was introduced by means of the level set method. The resulting partial differential equations for the fluid infusion and the evolution of flow front were discretized and solved approximately using the finite differences method with a uniform grid discretization of the spatial domain. The model results were validated against uniaxial VARI experiments through an [0]8 E-glass plain woven preform. The physical parameters of the model were also independently measured. The model results (in terms of the fabric thickness, pressure and fluid front evolution during filling) were in good agreement with the numerical simulations, showing the potential of the level set method to simulate resin infusion

Essays on Environmental and Health Economics

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06