Estimation of a Regression Function on a Point Process and its Application to Financial Ruin Risk Forecast

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: Primary 60G55; secondary 60G25.

An evaluation of the accuracy of models for the determination of the weighted mean temperature of the atmosphere

The estimates of the zenith wet delay resulting from the analysis of data from space techniques, such as GPS and VLBI, have a strong potential in climate modeling and weather forecast applications. In order to be useful to meteorology, these estimates have to be converted to precipitable water vapor, a process that requires the knowledge of the weighted mean temperature of the atmosphere, which varies both in space and time. In recent years, several models have been proposed to predict this quantity. Using a database of mean temperature values obtained by ray-tracing radiosonde profiles of more than 100 stations covering the globe, and about 2.5 year’s worth of data, we have analyzed several of these models. Based on data from the European region, we have concluded that the models provide identical levels of precision, but different levels of accuracy. Our results indicate that regionally-optimized models do not provide superior performance compared to the global models.

Comparative costs of the commercial process in different construction procurement methods

The commercial process in construction projects is an expensive and highly variable overhead. Collaborative working practices carry many benefits, which are widely disseminated, but little information is available about their costs. Transaction Cost Economics is a theoretical framework that seeks explanations for why there are firms and how the boundaries of firms are defined through the “make-or-buy” decision. However, it is not a framework that offers explanations for the relative costs of procuring construction projects in different ways. The idea that different methods of procurement will have characteristically different costs is tested by way of a survey. The relevance of transaction cost economics to the study of commercial costs in procurement is doubtful. The survey shows that collaborative working methods cost neither more nor less than traditional methods. But the benefits of collaboration mean that there is a great deal of enthusiasm for collaboration rather than competition.

Effects of reflex stimulus intensity and stimulus onset asynchrony on prepulse inhibition and perceived intensity of the blink-eliciting stimulus

Prepulse inhibition of the blink reflex is widely applied to investigate information processing deficits in schizophrenia and other psychiatric patient groups. The present experiment investigated the hypothesis that prepulse inhibition reflects a transient process that protects preattentive processing of the prepulse. Participants were presented with pairs of blinkeliciting noises, some preceded by a prepulse at a variable stimulus onset asynchrony (SOA), and were asked to rate the intensity of the second noise relative to the first. Inhibition of blink amplitude was greater for a 110-dB (A) noise than for a 95-dB(A) noise with a 120-ms SOA, whereas there was no difference with a 30-ms SOA. The perceived intensity was also lower for the 110-dB(A) noise than for the 95-dB(A) noise with the 120-ms SOA, but not with the 30-ms SOA. The parallel results support a relationship between prepulse inhibition of response amplitude and perceived intensity. However, the prepulse did not reduce intensity ratings relative to control trials in some conditions, suggesting that prepulse inhibition is not always associated with an attenuation of the perceived impact of the blink-eliciting stimulus.

User-designer collaboration during the early stage of the design process

As user involvement becomes a necessary part of the product development process, various ways of accessing users' latent needs have been developed and studied. Reviews of literatures in user involvement and product development have revealed that accessing users' latent needs and transferring them into design process could be facilitated by effectively implementing user-designer collaboration during the early stage of the design process. In this paper, various types of user-designer collaboration were observed and then distinct characteristics of user-designer collaboration were classified into three categories. 1) Passive objectivity, 2) workplace democratisation, and 3) shared contexts were observed as strategies for better user-designer collaboration, which have been employed in the area of user-centred design, user participatory design and design for experiencing. Based on the literature review, this paper proposed a basic collaboration mechanism between the users and the designers during the early stage of the design process and then discussed how its mechanism will help to describe the interactions between the users and the designers during the user involvement sessions.

Child Victims of Sexual Abuse: Children's Experience of the Investigative Process in the Criminal Justice System

This paper is a selected review of research on issues surrounding the investigation of intra-familial child sexual abuse for children aged eight and above, in the criminal justice system. Particular attention is paid to features of the investigative interview in relation to the child's level of understanding, ability to report and likely emotional response when the proceedings take place. Best practice by police and social care agencies involves establishing valid and reliable information from children while attending to their developmental level and emotional state. The review aims to distil principles optimising this process from both the investigative judicial perspective and the child's focus, as well as from the inter-agency perspective and information sharing. Recommendations are made for improving the interview process based on research and methods from a range of disciplines and to optimise information recording in a format easily shared between agencies. Updated and ongoing training procedures are key to successful practice with training shared across police and social work agencies. The focus of this review is informed by preliminary findings from pilot research in progress on behalf of the Metropolitan Police Child Abuse Investigation Command.

The use of an electrostatic lens to enhance the efficiency of the electrospinning process

Electrospun scaffolds manufactured using conventional electrospinning configurations have an intrinsic thickness limitation, due to a charge build-up at the collector. To overcome this limitation, an electrostatic lens has been developed that, at the same relative rate of deposition, focuses the polymer jet onto a smaller area of the collector, resulting in the fabrication of thick scaffolds within a shorter period of time. We also observed that a longer deposition time (up to 13 h, without the intervention of the operator) could be achieved when the electrostatic lens was utilised, compared to 9–10 h with a conventional processing set-up and also showed that fibre fusion was less likely to occur in the modified method. This had a significant impact on the mechanical properties, as the scaffolds obtained with the conventional process had a higher elastic modulus and ultimate stress and strain at short times. However, as the thickness of the scaffolds produced by the conventional electrospinning process increased, a 3-fold decrease in the mechanical properties was observed. This was in contrast to the modified method, which showed a continual increase in mechanical properties, with the properties of the scaffold finally having similar mechanical properties to the scaffolds obtained via the conventional process at longer times. This “focusing” device thus enabled the fabrication of thicker 3-dimensional electrospun scaffolds (of thicknesses up to 3.5 mm), representing an important step towards the production of scaffolds for tissue engineering large defect sites in a multitude of tissues.

Simplified computation and generalization of the refined process structure tree

A business process is often modeled using some kind of a directed flow graph, which we call a workflow graph. The Refined Process Structure Tree (RPST) is a technique for workflow graph parsing, i.e., for discovering the structure of a workflow graph, which has various applications. In this paper, we provide two improvements to the RPST. First, we propose an alternative way to compute the RPST that is simpler than the one developed originally. In particular, the computation reduces to constructing the tree of the triconnected components of a workflow graph in the special case when every node has at most one incoming or at most one outgoing edge. Such graphs occur frequently in applications. Secondly, we extend the applicability of the RPST. Originally, the RPST was applicable only to graphs with a single source and single sink such that the completed version of the graph is biconnected. We lift both restrictions. Therefore, the RPST is then applicable to arbitrary directed graphs such that every node is on a path from some source to some sink. This includes graphs with multiple sources and/or sinks and disconnected graphs.

Commitment to internationalisation : an extension of the internationalisation process model

Notwithstanding the interest over many years by scholars in modeling the internationalization of the firm, the initial transition for the firm from domestic to international operations remains under-researched. We identify the behavioral factors that are important at the pre-internationalization state and discuss how they may interrelate to influence a decision to commit to internationalization through export commencement. We study export commitment by proposing and constructing an index that incorporates the factors that influence a firm’s propensity to commit to export activities. Utilizing the items from this index in a logistic regression analysis, we distinguish between the pre-internationalization characteristics of exporting and non-exporting firms to better understand the key influences in export commitment. Implications are discussed.

Advanced computer simulation of the milling process

Process modelling is an integral part of any process industry. Several sugar factory models have been developed over the years to simulate the unit operations. An enhanced and comprehensive milling process simulation model has been developed to analyse the performance of the milling train and to assess the impact of changes and advanced control options for improved operational efficiency. The developed model is incorporated in a proprietary software package ‘SysCAD’. As an example, the milling process model has been used to predict a significant loss of extraction by returning the cush from the juice screen before #3 mill instead of before #2 mill as is more commonly done. Further work is being undertaken to more accurately model extraction processes in a milling train, to examine extraction issues dynamically and to integrate the model into a whole factory model.

A High-Resolution Transmission of the Precipitation Process in a Electron Microscopy Study Dilute Ti-N Alloy

The precipitation processes in dilute nitrogen alloys of titanium have been examined in detail by conventional transmission electron microscopy (CTEM) and high-resolution electron microscopy (HREM). The alloy Ti-2 at. pct N on quenching from its high-temperature beta phase field has been found to undergo early stages of decomposition. The supersaturated solid solution (alpha''-hcp) on decomposition gives rise to an intimately mixed, irresolvable product microstructure. The associated strong tweed contrast presents difficulties in understanding the characteristic features of the process. Therefore, HREM has been carried out with a view to getting a clear picture of the decomposition process. Studies on the quenched samples of the alloy suggest the formation of solute-rich zones of a few atom layers thick, randomly distributed throughout the matrix. On aging, these zones grow to a size beyond which the precipitate/matrix interfaces appear to become incoherent and the alpha' (tetragonal) product phase is seen distinctly. The structural details, the crystallography of the precipitation process, and the sequence of precipitation reaction in the system are illustrated.