The Anchoring Bias of Investors and the 52-Week High Momentum Strategy in the OMX Helsinki Stock Exchange: Psychological Approach to Market Efficiency

The behavioural finance literature expects systematic and significant deviations from efficiency to persist in securities markets due to behavioural and cognitive biases of investors. These behavioural models attempt to explain the coexistence of intermediate-term momentum and long-term reversals in stock returns based on the systematic violations of rational behaviour of investors. The study investigates the anchoring bias of investors and the profitability of the 52-week momentum strategy (GH henceforward). The relatively highly volatile OMX Helsinki stock exchange is a suitable market for examining the momentum effect, since international investors tend to realise their positions first from the furthest security markets by the time of market turbulence. Empirical data is collected from Thomson Reuters Datastream and the OMX Nordic website. The objective of the study is to provide a throughout research by formulating a self-financing GH momentum portfolio. First, the seasonality of the strategy is examined by taking the January effect into account and researching abnormal returns in long-term. The results indicate that the GH strategy is subject to significantly negative revenues in January, but the strategy is not prone to reversals in long-term. Then the predictive proxies of momentum returns are investigated in terms of acquisition prices and 52-week high statistics as anchors. The results show that the acquisition prices do not have explanatory power over the GH strategy’s abnormal returns. Finally, the efficacy of the GH strategy is examined after taking transaction costs into account, finding that the robust abnormal returns remain statistically significant despite the transaction costs. As a conclusion, the relative distance between a stock’s current price and its 52-week high statistic explains the profits of momentum investing to a high degree. The results indicate that intermediateterm momentum and long-term reversals are separate phenomena. This presents a challenge to current behavioural theories, which model these aspects of stock returns as subsequent components of how securities markets respond to relevant information.

Can institutional investors bias real estate portfolio appraisals? Evidence from the market downturn

This paper investigates the extent to which institutional investors may have influenced independent real estate appraisals during the financial crisis. A conceptual model of the determinants of client influence on real estate appraisals is proposed. It is suggested that the extent of clients’ ability and willingness to bias appraisal outputs is contingent upon market and regulatory environments (ethical norms and legal and institutional frameworks), the salience of the appraisal(s) to the client, financial incentives for the appraiser to respond to client pressure, organisational culture, the level of moral reasoning of both individual clients and appraisers, client knowledge and the degree of appraisal uncertainty. The potential of client influence to bias ostensibly independent real estate appraisals is examined using the opportunity afforded by the market downturn commencing in 2007 in the UK. During the market turbulence at the end of 2007, the motivations of different types of owners to bias appraisals diverged clearly and temporarily provided a unique opportunity to assess potential appraisal bias. We use appraisal-based performance data for individual real estate assets to test whether there were significant ownership effects on performance during this period. The results support the hypothesis that real estate appraisals in this period reflected the differing needs of clients.

Differences in market-oriented behaviour levels across firms' domestic and export marketing operations:a study of antecedents and consequences

Researchers are beginning to recognise that organisations often have different levels of market orientation across different aspects of their operations. Focusing on firms involved in export marketing, this study examines how market-oriented behaviour differs across firms' domestic and export marketing operations. In this respect, the study is the first of its kind since it investigates three main issues: (1) to what extent do differences exist in firms' levels of market-oriented behaviour in their domestic markets (i.e., their domestic market-oriented behaviour) and in their export markets (i.e., their export market-oriented behaviour), (2) what are the key drivers of such differences, and (3) what are the performance implications for firms of having different levels of domestic and export market-oriented behaviour. To shed light on these research questions, data were collected from 225 British exporting firms using a mail questionnaire. Structural equation modelling techniques were used to develop and purify measures of all construct of interest, and to test the theoretical models developed. The results indicate that many of businesses sampled have very different levels of market orientation in their domestic and exporting operations: typically, firms tend to be more market-oriented in their domestic markets relative to their export markets. Several key factors were identified as drivers of differences in market orientation levels across firms' domestic and export markets. In particular, it was found that differences were more pronounced when: (i) interfunctional interactions between domestic marketing and export marketing are rare, (ii) when domestic and export marketing follow asymmetric business strategies, (iii) when mutual dependence between the functions is low, (iv) when one or other of the functions dominates the firm's sales, and (v) when there are pronounced differences in the degree to which the domestic and the export markets are experiencing environmental turbulence. The consequences of differences in market-oriented behaviour across firms' domestic and export markets were also studied. The results indicate that overall sales performance of firms (as determined by the composite of firms' domestic sales and export sales performance) is positively related to levels of domestic market-oriented behaviour under high levels of environmental turbulence in firms' domestic markets. However, as domestic market turbulence decreases, so to does the strength of this positive relationship. On the other hand, export market-oriented behaviour provides a positive contribution to firms' overall sales success under conditions of relatively low export market turbulence. As the turbulence in export markets increases, this positive relationship becomes weaker. These findings indicate that there are numerous situations in which it is sub-optimal for firms to have identical levels of market-oriented behaviour in their domestic and exporting operations. The theoretical and practical implications of these findings are discussed.

Knowledge effect on firm performance in manufacturing and service firms

This thesis seeks to examine the difference between manufacturing and service firms with respect to the effects of knowledge on performance, and the influence of market turbulence in this relationship. Empirical data, resulting from a survey, was collected from more than 1,206 firms, involving several sectors. Two samples were analyzed, one with 334 manufacturing and other with 509 service firms. The findings indicate no significant difference in the importance of knowledge on performance between these sectors in the absence of market turbulence: knowledge development (KD) has a stronger effect than culture of competitiveness (CC) on firm performance. However, under market turbulence, manufacturers differ from service providers. The positive effect of KD is enhanced, while the positive effect of CC remains the same for manufacturing firms. On the other hand, the positive effect of KD is diminished, while the positive effect of CC is enhanced for service firms. This supports the argument concerning differences in the nature of manufacturing and service industries. From a managerial point of view, results confirm the importance of knowledge, irrespective of firm sector or market turbulence. However, while industrial firms should center efforts on KD, service firms must find a balance where knowledge development (e.g. norms, processes, routines) does not impair their culture of competitiveness (e.g. learning, innovation, action). The thesis contributes to existing literature by proposing that: (1) the positive effect of knowledge on performance is confirmed; (2) under turbulent markets manufacturing and service firms have different responses concerning the influence of knowledge on performance; (3) a multidimensional performance construct based on cost, profitability, and growth is an interesting way to evaluate firm sustained competitive advantage, rather than one-dimensional constructs; (4) the CC x KD interaction, found relevant for supply chains in previous studies, is not supported for firms; (5) differences in unit of analysis, e.g. from supply chains to firms, result in different effects of KD and CC on firm performance; (6) existing scales can be improved with the addition of more diverse indicators, capturing a wider range of concepts (e.g. information transfer measurement); and (7) results from previous studies are supported for Brazilian firms, contributing for theory generalization.

Capital flows to Latin America: quarterly developments

Includes bibliography

Loose Coupling Based Reference Scheme for Shop Floor-Control-System/Production-Equipment Integration.

Acoplamiento del sistema informático de control de piso de producción (SFS) con el conjunto de equipos de fabricación (SPE) es una tarea compleja. Tal acoplamiento involucra estándares abiertos y propietarios, tecnologías de información y comunicación, entre otras herramientas y técnicas. Debido a la turbulencia de mercados, ya sea soluciones personalizadas o soluciones basadas en estándares eventualmente requieren un esfuerzo considerable de adaptación. El concepto de acoplamiento débil ha sido identificado en la comunidad de diseño organizacional como soporte para la sobrevivencia de la organización. Su presencia reduce la resistencia de la organización a cambios en el ambiente. En este artículo los resultados obtenidos por la comunidad de diseño organizacional son identificados, traducidos y organizados para apoyar en la solución del problema de integración SFS-SPE. Un modelo clásico de acoplamiento débil, desarrollado por la comunidad de estudios de diseño organizacional, es resumido y trasladado al área de interés. Los aspectos claves son identificados para utilizarse como promotores del acoplamiento débil entre SFS-SPE, y presentados en forma de esquema de referencia. Así mismo, este esquema de referencia es presentado como base para el diseño e implementación de una solución genérica de acoplamiento o marco de trabajo (framework) de acoplamiento, a incluir como etapa de acoplamiento débil entre SFS y SPE. Un ejemplo de validación con varios conjuntos de equipos de fabricación, usando diferentes medios físicos de comunicación, comandos de controlador, lenguajes de programación de equipos y protocolos de comunicación es presentado, mostrando un nivel aceptable de autonomía del SFS. = Coupling shop floor software system (SFS) with the set of production equipment (SPE) becomes a complex task. It involves open and proprietary standards, information and communication technologies among other tools and techniques. Due to market turbulence, either custom solutions or standards based solutions eventually require a considerable effort of adaptation. Loose coupling concept has been identified in the organizational design community as a compensator for organization survival. Its presence reduces organization reaction to environment changes. In this paper the results obtained by the organizational de sign community are identified, translated and organized to support the SFS-SPE integration problem solution. A classical loose coupling model developed by organizational studies community is abstracted and translated to the area of interest. Key aspects are identified to be used as promoters of SFS-SPE loose coupling and presented in a form of a reference scheme. Furthermore, this reference scheme is proposed here as a basis for the design and implementation of a generic coupling solution or coupling framework, that is included as a loose coupling stage between SFS and SPE. A validation example with various sets of manufacturing equipment, using different physical communication media, controller commands, programming languages and wire protocols is presented, showing an acceptable level of autonomy gained by the SFS.

Factors affecting airport route development activity and performance

Airports have become increasingly active in route development as a means of attracting, growing and retaining air services. However, little is known about the different levels of route development activity at airports, or the extent to which route development activity affects performance. Based on the findings of a survey of 124 airports worldwide, this study finds that larger airports are significantly more active than smaller airports. It also finds that private airports are more active than public airports, and that airports in Europe are more active than airports in other world regions, although differences according to ownership and location are not significant. Route development activity has a significant positive effect on performance. Factors associated with the airport business environment (market turbulence, competitive intensity, market growth and airport constraints) were not found to have a significant moderating effect on the relationship between route development activity and performance. However, two factors were found to have a significant direct effect on performance; market growth has a significant positive effect while airport constraints have a significant negative effect.

Forecasting the European Carbon Market

In an effort to meet its obligations under the Kyoto Protocol, in 2005 the European Union introduced a cap-and-trade scheme where mandated installations are allocated permits to emit CO2. Financial markets have developed that allow companies to trade these carbon permits. For the EU to achieve reductions in CO2 emissions at a minimum cost, it is necessary that companies make appropriate investments and policymakers design optimal policies. In an effort to clarify the workings of the carbon market, several recent papers have attempted to statistically model it. However, the European carbon market (EU ETS) has many institutional features that potentially impact on daily carbon prices (and associated nancial futures). As a consequence, the carbon market has properties that are quite different from conventional financial assets traded in mature markets. In this paper, we use dynamic model averaging (DMA) in order to forecast in this newly-developing market. DMA is a recently-developed statistical method which has three advantages over conventional approaches. First, it allows the coefficients on the predictors in a forecasting model to change over time. Second, it allows for the entire fore- casting model to change over time. Third, it surmounts statistical problems which arise from the large number of potential predictors that can explain carbon prices. Our empirical results indicate that there are both important policy and statistical bene ts with our approach. Statistically, we present strong evidence that there is substantial turbulence and change in the EU ETS market, and that DMA can model these features and forecast accurately compared to conventional approaches. From a policy perspective, we discuss the relative and changing role of different price drivers in the EU ETS. Finally, we document the forecast performance of DMA and discuss how this relates to the efficiency and maturity of this market.

Interdependence of International Stock Markets, European Government Bond Market and Gold Market

This thesis examines the interdependence of international stock markets (the USA, Europe, Japan, emerging markets, and frontier markets), European government bond market, and gold market during the 21st century. Special focus is on the dynamics of the correlations between the markets, as well as on, spillovers in mean returns and volatility. The mean return spillovers are examined on the basis of the bivariate VAR(1) model, whereas the bivariate BEKK-GARCH(1, 1) model is employed for the analysis of the volatility spillovers. In order to analyze the spillover effects in different market conditions, the full sample period from 2000 to 2013 is divided into the pre-crisis period (2000–2006) and the crisis period (2007–2013). The results indicate an increasing interdependence especially within international stock markets during the periods of financial turbulence, and are thus consistent with the existing literature. Hence, bond and gold markets provide the best diversification benefits for equity investors, particularly during the periods of market turmoil.

Organizational change and development:a case study in the Indian electricity market

Five principles for accommodating cultural nuances

Market-driven strategies and the design of flexible production systems: evidence from the electronics industry

Links the concept of market-driven business strategies with the design of production systems. It draws upon the case of a firm which, during the last decade, changed its strategy from being “technology led” to “market driven”. The research, based on interdisciplinary fieldwork involving long-term participant observation, investigated the factors which contribute to the successful design and implementation of flexible production systems in electronics assembly. These investigations were conducted in collaboration with a major computer manufacturer, with other electronics firms being studied for comparison. The research identified a number of strategies and actions seen as crucial to the development of efficient flexible production systems, namely: effective integration of subsystems, development of appropriate controls and performance measures, compatibility between production system design and organization structure, and the development of a climate conducive to organizational change. Overall, the analysis suggests that in the electronics industry there exists an extremely high degree of environmental complexity and turbulence. This serves to shape the strategic, technical and social structures that are developed to match this complexity, examples of which are niche marketing, flexible manufacturing and employee harmonization.

Is more capability always beneficial for firm performance? Market orientation, core business process capabilities, and business environment

This study examines the role of capabilities in core marketing-related business processes–product development management (PDM), supply chain management (SCM) and customer relationship management (CRM)–in translating a firm’s market orientation (MO) into firm performance. The study is the first to examine the interplay of all three business process capabilities simultaneously, while investigating how environmental conditions moderate their performance effects. A moderated mediation analysis of 468 product-focused firms finds that PDM and CRM process capabilities play important mediating roles, whereas SCM process capability does not mediate the relationship between MO and performance. However, the relative importance of the capabilities as mediators varies along the degree of environmental turbulence, and under certain conditions, an increase in the level of business process capability may even turn detrimental.

Tribes under threat : the collective behavior of firms during the stock market crisis

Due to their unpredictable behavior, stock markets are examples of complex systems. Yet, the dominant analysis of these markets as- sumes simple stochastic variations, eventually tainted by short-lived memory. This paper proposes an alternative strategy, based on a stochastic geometry defining a robust index of the structural dynamics of the markets and based on notions of topology defining a new coef- ficient that identifies the structural changes occurring on the S&P500 set of stocks. The results demonstrate the consistency of the random hypothesis as applied to normal periods but they also show its in- adequacy as to the analysis of periods of turbulence, for which the emergence of collective behavior of sectoral clusters of firms is mea- sured. This behavior is identified as a meta-routine.

Study of the equatorial Atlantic Ocean mixing layer using a one-dimensional turbulence model

The General Ocean Turbulence Model (GOTM) is applied to the diagnostic turbulence field of the mixing layer (ML) over the equatorial region of the Atlantic Ocean. Two situations were investigated: rainy and dry seasons, defined, respectively, by the presence of the intertropical convergence zone and by its northward displacement. Simulations were carried out using data from a PIRATA buoy located on the equator at 23º W to compute surface turbulent fluxes and from the NASA/GEWEX Surface Radiation Budget Project to close the surface radiation balance. A data assimilation scheme was used as a surrogate for the physical effects not present in the one-dimensional model. In the rainy season, results show that the ML is shallower due to the weaker surface stress and stronger stable stratification; the maximum ML depth reached during this season is around 15 m, with an averaged diurnal variation of 7 m depth. In the dry season, the stronger surface stress and the enhanced surface heat balance components enable higher mechanical production of turbulent kinetic energy and, at night, the buoyancy acts also enhancing turbulence in the first meters of depth, characterizing a deeper ML, reaching around 60 m and presenting an average diurnal variation of 30 m.

Turbulence in collisionless plasmas: statistical analysis from numerical simulations with pressure anisotropy

In recent years, we have experienced increasing interest in the understanding of the physical properties of collisionless plasmas, mostly because of the large number of astrophysical environments (e. g. the intracluster medium (ICM)) containing magnetic fields that are strong enough to be coupled with the ionized gas and characterized by densities sufficiently low to prevent the pressure isotropization with respect to the magnetic line direction. Under these conditions, a new class of kinetic instabilities arises, such as firehose and mirror instabilities, which have been studied extensively in the literature. Their role in the turbulence evolution and cascade process in the presence of pressure anisotropy, however, is still unclear. In this work, we present the first statistical analysis of turbulence in collisionless plasmas using three-dimensional numerical simulations and solving double-isothermal magnetohydrodynamic equations with the Chew-Goldberger-Low laws closure (CGL-MHD). We study models with different initial conditions to account for the firehose and mirror instabilities and to obtain different turbulent regimes. We found that the CGL-MHD subsonic and supersonic turbulences show small differences compared to the MHD models in most cases. However, in the regimes of strong kinetic instabilities, the statistics, i.e. the probability distribution functions (PDFs) of density and velocity, are very different. In subsonic models, the instabilities cause an increase in the dispersion of density, while the dispersion of velocity is increased by a large factor in some cases. Moreover, the spectra of density and velocity show increased power at small scales explained by the high growth rate of the instabilities. Finally, we calculated the structure functions of velocity and density fluctuations in the local reference frame defined by the direction of magnetic lines. The results indicate that in some cases the instabilities significantly increase the anisotropy of fluctuations. These results, even though preliminary and restricted to very specific conditions, show that the physical properties of turbulence in collisionless plasmas, as those found in the ICM, may be very different from what has been largely believed.