The marginal cost of funds from public sector borrowing

An expression for the welfare cost of a marginal increase in the public debt is derived using a simple AK endogenous growth model. This measure of the marginal cost of public funds (MCF) can be interpreted as the marginal benefit-cost ratio that a debtfinanced public project needs in order to generate a net social gain. The model predicts an increase in the public debt ratio will have little effect on the optimal public expenditure ratio and that most of the adjustment will occur on the tax side of the budget.

Three applications of the marginal cost of public funds concept

This paper illustrates the use of the marginal cost of public funds concept in three contexts. First, we extend Parry’s (2003) analysis of the efficiency effects excise taxes in the U.K., primarily by incorporating the distortion caused by imperfect competition in the cigarette market and distinguishing between the MCFs for per unit and ad valorem taxes on cigarettes. Our computations show, contrary to the standard result in the literature, that the per unit tax on cigarettes has a slightly lower MCF than the ad valorem tax on cigarettes. Second, we calculate the MCF for a payroll tax in a labour market with involuntary unemployment, using the Shapiro and Stiglitz (1984) efficiency wage model as our framework. Our computations, based on Canadian labour market data, indicate that incorporating the distortion caused by involuntary unemployment raises the MCF by 25 to 50 percent. Third, we derive expressions for the distributionally-weighted MCFs for the exemption level and the marginal tax rate for a “flat tax”, such as the one that has been adopted by the province of Alberta. This allows us to develop a restricted, but tractable, version of the optimal income tax problem. Computations indicate that the optimal marginal tax rate may be quite high, even with relatively modest pro-poor distributional preferences.

Bank relationships: effect on the availability and marginal cost of credit for firms in Argentina

The paper provides evidence on what affects at the margin the cost and availability of bank credit for firms in Argentina. We study in particular how banks use different pieces of private and public information to screen firms and overcome informational asymmetries in the credit market. Some private information is transferable, like balance sheet data. Private information generated in relationships is not. To capture the closeness of bank relationships, we resort to the concentration of bank credit and the number of credit lines in a bank. We also consider public information available in the Central de Deudores. The cost of credit is measured using overdrafts, the most expensive line of credit, at the bank that charges the highest rate for overdrafts. We find that the cost of credit is smaller for a firm with a close relationship to the marginal bank. Firms with large assets, a high sales/assets ratio, and a low debt/assets ratio pay a lower interest rate at the margin. A good credit history (no debt arrears and no bounced checks) and collateral also reduce the marginal interest rate. The availability of credit is measured by unused credit lines as a proportion of total liabilities with the main bank. The availability of credit depends positively on a close relationship with the main bank. Large assets, a high return over assets, a high sales/assets ratio, a low debt/assets ratio, a good credit history, and collateral lead to higher credit availability. Our measure of unused credit lines is less ambiguous than traditional measures like leverage, which may indicate financial distress rather than availability of credit.

Essays in macroeconomics and public finance

Esta tese dedica-se ao estudo dos sistemas tributários. Eu investigo como um sistema tributário afeta as escolhas dos indivíduos e consequentemente os recursos do país. Eu mostro como um sistema tributário induz as escolhas das pessoas, determinado assim as alocações de trabalho, produto e consumo da economia. No primeiro e segundo capítulo eu examino a taxação sobre os indivíduos, enquanto que no terceiro e quarto capítulos analiso a incidîncia tributária sobre os diferentes agentes da sociedade. No capítulo um, eu examino o sistema tributário ótimo, seguindo Mirrlees (1971) e Saez (2001). Eu mostro como seria este sistema tributário no Brasil, país com profunda desigualdade de renda entre os indivíduos. Ademais, eu investigo o sistema tributário afim, considerado uma alternativa entre os sistemas atual e o ótimo. No segundo capítulo eu analiso o sistema tributário conhecido como sacríficio igual. Mostro como o sistema tribuária derivado por Young (1987), redesenhado por Berliant and Gouveia (1993), se comporta no teste de eficiência derivado por Werning (2007). No terceiro e quarto capítulo eu examino como propostas de reforma tribuária afetariam a economia brasileira. No capítulo três investigo como uma reforma tributária atingiria as diferentes classes socias. No capítulo quatro, eu estudo as melhores direções para uma reforma tributária no Brasil, mostrando qual arranjo de impostos é menos ineficiente para o país. Por fim, investigo os efeitos de duas propostas de reforma tributária sobre a economia brasileira. Explicito quais os ganhos de produto e bem estar de cada proposta. Dedico especial atenção aos ganhos/perdas de curto prazo, pois estes podem inviabilizar uma reforma tributária, mesmo esta gerando ganhos de longo prazo.

The cost of being ethical : evidence from Islamic equity funds

This paper examines the relationship between financial performance and ethical screening intensity of a special class of ethical funds that is rooted in Islamic values – Islamic equity funds (IEFs). These faith-based ethical funds screen investments on compliance with Islamic values where conventional interest expense (riba), gambling (maysir), excessive uncertainty (gharar), and non-ethical (non-halal) products are prohibited. We test whether these extra screens affect the financial performance of IEFs relative to non-Islamic funds. Based on a large survivorship-free international sample of 387 Islamic funds, our results show that IEFs on average underperform conventional funds by 40 basis points per month, or 4.8% per year (supporting the underperformance hypothesis). While Islamic funds do not generally perform better during crisis periods, they outperformed conventional funds during the recent sub-prime crisis (supporting the outperformance hypothesis). Using holdings-based measures for ethical screening intensity, results show IEFs that apply more intensive screening perform worse, suggesting that there is a cost to being ethical.

Marginal costs of hospital-acquired conditions : information for priority-setting for patient safety programmes and research

Objective: To estimate the relative inpatient costs of hospital-acquired conditions. Methods: Patient level costs were estimated using computerized costing systems that log individual utilization of inpatient services and apply sophisticated cost estimates from the hospital's general ledger. Occurrence of hospital-acquired conditions was identified using an Australian ‘condition-onset' flag for diagnoses not present on admission. These were grouped to yield a comprehensive set of 144 categories of hospital-acquired conditions to summarize data coded with ICD-10. Standard linear regression techniques were used to identify the independent contribution of hospital-acquired conditions to costs, taking into account the case-mix of a sample of acute inpatients (n = 1,699,997) treated in Australian public hospitals in Victoria (2005/06) and Queensland (2006/07). Results: The most costly types of complications were post-procedure endocrine/metabolic disorders, adding AU$21,827 to the cost of an episode, followed by MRSA (AU$19,881) and enterocolitis due to Clostridium difficile (AU$19,743). Aggregate costs to the system, however, were highest for septicaemia (AU$41.4 million), complications of cardiac and vascular implants other than septicaemia (AU$28.7 million), acute lower respiratory infections, including influenza and pneumonia (AU$27.8 million) and UTI (AU$24.7 million). Hospital-acquired complications are estimated to add 17.3% to treatment costs in this sample. Conclusions: Patient safety efforts frequently focus on dramatic but rare complications with very serious patient harm. Previous studies of the costs of adverse events have provided information on ‘indicators’ of safety problems rather than the full range of hospital-acquired conditions. Adding a cost dimension to priority-setting could result in changes to the focus of patient safety programmes and research. Financial information should be combined with information on patient outcomes to allow for cost-utility evaluation of future interventions.

On the Marginal Utility of Deploying Measurement Infrastructure

The cost and complexity of deploying measurement infrastructure in the Internet for the purpose of analyzing its structure and behavior is considerable. Basic questions about the utility of increasing the number of measurements and/or measurement sites have not yet been addressed which has lead to a "more is better" approach to wide-area measurements. In this paper, we quantify the marginal utility of performing wide-area measurements in the context of Internet topology discovery. We characterize topology in terms of nodes, links, node degree distribution, and end-to-end flows using statistical and information-theoretic techniques. We classify nodes discovered on the routes between a set of 8 sources and 1277 destinations to differentiate nodes which make up the so called "backbone" from those which border the backbone and those on links between the border nodes and destination nodes. This process includes reducing nodes that advertise multiple interfaces to single IP addresses. We show that the utility of adding sources goes down significantly after 2 from the perspective of interface, node, link and node degree discovery. We show that the utility of adding destinations is constant for interfaces, nodes, links and node degree indicating that it is more important to add destinations than sources. Finally, we analyze paths through the backbone and show that shared link distributions approximate a power law indicating that a small number of backbone links in our study are very heavily utilized.

Estimating the user cost of soil erosion in tea smallholdings in Sri Lanka

Soil erosion in developing countries is a widespread problem causing considerable economic damage. It still remains an intractable problem in many countries. Available research findings on costs of soil erosion indicate them to be high. Soil erosion continues to be a problem due to the difficulties of estimating the economic damages and attendant difficulties in developing effective control policies. This paper considers soil to be a nonrenewable resource and estimates the marginal user costs using a yield damage function. Results indicate user costs to be low for individual farms. The low user costs are due to some of the assumptions made with respect to a number of parameters such as prices of tea, costs, and technological developments. The results also indicate that marginal user costs are sensitive to prices, soil depth and soil loss.

Effectiveness, costs, and cost-effectiveness of recruitment strategies for a mammographic screening program to detect breast cancer

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Since effective and affordable recruitment methods are essential for the widespread implementation of mammographic screening for detection of breast cancer, we studied the effectiveness, the costs, and the cost-effectiveness of various recruitment strategies in the population targeted by a pilot Australian program that offered free mammography screening between 1988 and 1990. METHODS: We evaluated three public recruitment strategies--local newspaper articles, community promotion, and promotion to physicians--and five personal strategies--invitation letters with or without specified appointment times, either alone or with a follow-up letter, or telephone call to nonattenders. The effectiveness of public recruitment strategies was estimated from monthly attendance rates by Poisson regression analysis, while the probability of attendance in response to personal strategies was calculated using logistic regression analysis. Costs were determined by resource usage studies. The cost-effectiveness ratios for personal strategies were determined using decision analysis. RESULTS: The costs in 1988-1989 Australian dollars per woman recruited were $22 for local newspaper articles and $106 for community promotion. No detectable increase in attendance resulted from promotion to physicians. When the cost of reserving an appointment was considered, the most cost-effective personal recruitment strategy was an invitation letter without a specified appointment time, followed by a second letter to nonattenders. This strategy recruited 35.6% of women in the sample targeted and cost $10.52 per attendee. In comparison, the most effective personal recruitment strategy was a letter with a specified appointment time followed by a second letter to nonattenders, which recruited 44.1% of women at an average cost of $19.99 and a marginal cost of $59.71 per additional attendee. CONCLUSIONS: Personal recruitment strategies were more cost-effective than public strategies. The most cost-effective personal strategy was an invitation letter without a specified appointment time, followed by a second letter to nonattenders.

The welfare cost of macroeconomic uncertainty in the post-war period

Lucas (1987) has shown the surprising result that the welfare cost of business cycles is quite small. Using standard assumptions on preferences and a fully-áedged econometric model we computed the welfare costs of macroeconomic uncertainty for the post-WWII era using the multivariate Beveridge-Nelson decomposition for trends and cycles, which considers not only business-cycle uncertainty but also uncertainty from the stochastic trend in consumption. The post-WWII period is relatively quiet, with the welfare costs of uncertainty being about 0:9% of per-capita consumption. Although changing the decomposition method changed substantially initial results, the welfare cost of uncertainty is qualitatively small in the post-WWII era - about $175.00 a year per-capita in the U.S. We also computed the marginal welfare cost of macroeconomic uncertainty using this same technique. It is about twice as large as the welfare cost ñ$350.00 a year per-capita.

The welfare cost of macroeconomic uncertainty in the post-war period

With standard assumptions on preferences and a fully-fledged econometric model we computed the welfare costs of macroeconomic uncertainty for post-war U.S. using the BeveridgeNelson decomposition. Welfare costs are about 0.9% per-capita consumption ($175.00) and marginal welfare costs are about twice as large.

Application of the agency theory for the analysis of performance-based mechanisms in road management

El WCTR es un congreso de reconocido prestigio internacional en el ámbito de la investigación del transporte, y aunque las actas publicadas están en formato digital y sin ISSN ni ISBN, lo consideramos lo suficientemente importante como para que se considere en los indicadores. This paper develops a model based on agency theory to analyze road management systems (under the different contract forms available today) that employ a mechanism of performance indicators to establish the payment of the agent. The base assumption is that of asymmetric information between the principal (Public Authorities) and the agent (contractor) and the risk aversion of this latter. It is assumed that the principal may only measure the agent?s performance indirectly and by means of certain performance indicators that may be verified by the authorities. In this model there is presumed to be a relation between the efforts made by the agent and the performance level measured by the corresponding indicators, though it is also considered that there may be dispersion between both variables that gives rise to a certain degree of randomness in the contract. An analysis of the optimal contract has been made on the basis of this model and in accordance with a series of parameters that characterize the economic environment and the particular conditions of road infrastructure. As a result of the analysis made, it is considered that an optimal contract should generally combine a fixed component and a payment in accordance with the performance level obtained. The higher the risk aversion of the agent and the greater the marginal cost of public funds, the lower the impact of this performance-based payment. By way of conclusion, the system of performance indicators should be as broad as possible but should not overweight those indicators that encompass greater randomness in their results.

Analysis of the Optimal Sharing of Construction Risk in Public Procurement Contracts

This paper discusses a model based on the agency theory to analyze the optimal transfer of construction risk in public works contracts. The base assumption is that of a contract between a principal (public authority) and an agent (firm), where the payment mechanism is linear and contains an incentive mechanism to enhance the effort of the agent to reduce construction costs. A theoretical model is proposed starting from a cost function with a random component and assuming that both the public authority and the firm are risk averse. The main outcome of the paper is that the optimal transfer of construction risk will be lower when the variance of errors in cost forecast, the risk aversion of the firm and the marginal cost of public funds are larger, while the optimal transfer of construction risk will grow when the variance of errors in cost monitoring and the risk aversion of the public authority are larger

On the Cost of Using Happy Eyeballs for Transport Protocol Selection

Concerns have been raised in the past several years that introducing new transport protocols on the Internet has be- come increasingly difficult, not least because there is no agreed-upon way for a source end host to find out if a trans- port protocol is supported all the way to a destination peer. A solution to a similar problem—finding out support for IPv6—has been proposed and is currently being deployed: the Happy Eyeballs (HE) mechanism. HE has also been proposed as an efficient way for an application to select an appropriate transport protocol. Still, there are few, if any, performance evaluations of transport HE. This paper demonstrates that transport HE could indeed be a feasible solution to the transport support problem. The paper evaluates HE between TCP and SCTP using TLS encrypted and unencrypted traffic, and shows that although there is indeed a cost in terms of CPU load to introduce HE, the cost is rel- atively small, especially in comparison with the cost of using TLS encryption. Moreover, our results suggest that HE has a marginal impact on memory usage. Finally, by introduc- ing caching of previous connection attempts, the additional cost of transport HE could be significantly reduced. 

Correcting for bias when estimating the cost of hospital-acquired infection : an analysis of lower respiratory tract infections in non-surgical patients

Hospital acquired infections (HAI) are costly but many are avoidable. Evaluating prevention programmes requires data on their costs and benefits. Estimating the actual costs of HAI (a measure of the cost savings due to prevention) is difficult as HAI changes cost by extending patient length of stay, yet, length of stay is a major risk factor for HAI. This endogeneity bias can confound attempts to measure accurately the cost of HAI. We propose a two-stage instrumental variables estimation strategy that explicitly controls for the endogeneity between risk of HAI and length of stay. We find that a 10% reduction in ex ante risk of HAI results in an expected savings of £693 ($US 984).