Transport modelling: macro and micro simulation for the studied case of Funchal

The work done in this thesis attempts to demonstrate the importance of using models that can predict and represent the mobility of our society. To answer the proposed challenges two models were examined, the first corresponds to macro simulation with the intention of finding a solution to the frequency of the bus company Horários do Funchal, responsible for transport in the city of Funchal, and some surrounding areas. Where based on a simplified model of the city it was possible to increase the frequency of journeys getting an overall reduction in costs. The second model concerns the micro simulation of Avenida do Mar, where currently is being built a new roundabout (Praça da Autonomia), which connects with this avenue. Therefore it was proposed to study the impact on local traffic, and the implementation of new traffic lights for this purpose. Four possible situations in which was seen the possibility of increasing the number of lanes on the roundabout or the insertion of a bus lane were created. The results showed that having a roundabout with three lanes running is the best option because the waiting queues are minimal, and at environmental level this model will project fewer pollutants. Thus, this thesis presents two possible methods of urban planning. Transport modelling is an area that is under constant development, the global goal is to encourage more and more the use of these models, and as such it is important to have more people to devote themselves to studying new ways of addressing current problems, so that we can have more accurate models and increasing their credibility.

Urban greenways have the potential to increase physical activity levels cost-effectively

BACKGROUND: For many, physical activity has been engineered out of daily life, leading to high levels of sedentariness and obesity. Multi-faceted physical activity interventions, combining individual, community and environmental approaches, have the greatest potential to improve public health, but few have been evaluated. METHODS: Approximately 100 000 people may benefit from improved opportunities for physical activity through an urban regeneration project in Northern Ireland, the Connswater Community Greenway. Using the macro-simulation PREVENT model, we estimated its potential health impacts and cost-effectiveness. To do so, we modelled its potential impact on the burden from cardiovascular disease, namely, ischaemic heart disease, type 2 diabetes mellitus and stroke, and colon and breast cancer, by the year 2050, if feasible increases in physical activity were to be achieved. RESULTS: If 10% of those classified as 'inactive' (perform less than 150 minutes of moderate activity/week) became 'active', 886 incident cases (1.2%) and 75 deaths (0.9%) could be prevented with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £4469/disability-adjusted life year. For effectiveness estimates as low as 2%, the intervention would remain cost-effective (£18 411/disability-adjusted life year). Small gains in average life expectancy and disability-adjusted life expectancy could be achieved, and the Greenway population would benefit from 46 less years lived with disability. CONCLUSION: The Greenway intervention could be cost-effective at improving physical activity levels. Although the direct health gains are predicted to be small for any individual, summed over an entire population, they are substantial. In addition, the Greenway is likely to have much wider benefits beyond health.

Modelling of potential food policy interventions in Fiji and Tonga and their impacts on noncommunicable disease mortality

Background: To compare the likely costs and benefits of a range of potential policy interventions in Fiji and Tonga targeted at diet-related noncommunicable diseases (NCDs), in order to support more evidence-based decision-making.

Method: A relatively simple and quick macro-simulation methodology was developed. Logic models were developed by local stakeholders and used to identify costs and dietary impacts of policy changes. Costs were confined to government costs, and excluded cost offsets. The best available evidence was combined with local data to model impacts on deaths from noncommunicable diseases over the lifetime of the target population. Given that the modelling necessarily entailed assumptions to compensate for gaps in data and evidence, use was made of probabilistic uncertainty analysis.

Results: Costs of implementing policy changes were generally low, with the exception of some requiring additional long-term staffing or construction activities. The most effective policy options in Fiji and Tonga targeted access to local produce and high-fat meats respectively, and were estimated to avert approximately 3% of diet-related NCD deaths in each population. Many policies had substantially lower benefits. Cost-effectiveness was higher for the low-cost policies. Similar policies produced markedly different results in the two countries.

Conclusion: Despite the crudeness of the method, the consistent modelling approach used across all the options, allowed reasonable comparisons to be made between the potential policy costs and impacts. This type of modelling can be used to support more evidence-based and informed decision-making about policy interventions and facilitate greater use of policy to achieve a reduction in NCDs.

What is the optimal level of population alcohol consumption for chronic disease prevention in England? Modelling the impact of changes in average consumption levels

Objective To estimate the impact of achieving alternative average population alcohol consumption levels on chronic disease mortality in England.

Design A macro-simulation model was built to simultaneously estimate the number of deaths from coronary heart disease, stroke, hypertensive disease, diabetes, liver cirrhosis, epilepsy and five cancers that would be averted or delayed annually as a result of changes in alcohol consumption among English adults. Counterfactual scenarios assessed the impact on alcohol-related mortalities of changing (1) the median alcohol consumption of drinkers and (2) the percentage of non-drinkers.

Data sources Risk relationships were drawn from published meta-analyses. Age- and sex-specific distributions of alcohol consumption (grams per day) for the English population in 2006 were drawn from the General Household Survey 2006, and age-, sex- and cause-specific mortality data for 2006 were provided by the Office for National Statistics.

Results The optimum median consumption level for drinkers in the model was 5 g/day (about half a unit), which would avert or delay 4579 (2544 to 6590) deaths per year. Approximately equal numbers of deaths from cancers and liver disease would be delayed or averted (∼2800 for each), while there was a small increase in cardiovascular mortality. The model showed no benefit in terms of reduced mortality when the proportion of non-drinkers in the population was increased.

Conclusions Current government recommendations for alcohol consumption are well above the level likely to minimise chronic disease. Public health targets should aim for a reduction in population alcohol consumption in order to reduce chronic disease mortality.

Macro-segregation of multi-component alloys in shape casting simulation

The objective of this work is to present a new scheme for temperature-solute coupling in a solidification model, where the temperature and concentration fields simultaneously satisfy the macro-scale transport equations and, in the mushy region, meet the constraints imposed by the thermodynamics and the local scale processes. A step-by-step explanation of the macrosegregation algorithm, implemented in the finite volume unstructured mesh multi-physics modelling code PHYSICA, is initially presented and then the proposed scheme is validated against experimental results obtained by Krane for binary and a ternary alloys.

Visualization of thermal characteristics around the absorber tube of a standard parabolic trough thermal collector by 3D simulation

Three dimensional conjugate heat transfer simulation of a standard parabolic trough thermal collector receiver is performed numerically in order to visualize and analyze the surface thermal characteristics. The computational model is developed in Ansys Fluent environment based on some simplified assumptions. Three test conditions are selected from the existing literature to verify the numerical model directly, and reasonably good agreement between the model and the test results confirms the reliability of the simulation. Solar radiation flux profile around the tube is also approximated from the literature. An in house macro is written to read the input solar flux as a heat flux wall boundary condition for the tube wall. The numerical results show that there is an abrupt variation in the resultant heat flux along the circumference of the receiver. Consequently, the temperature varies throughout the tube surface. The lower half of the horizontal receiver enjoys the maximum solar flux, and therefore, experiences the maximum temperature rise compared to the upper part with almost leveled temperature. Reasonable attributions and suggestions are made on this particular type of conjugate thermal system. The knowledge that gained so far from this study will be used to further the analysis and to design an efficient concentrator photovoltaic collector in near future.

Three-Dimensional simulation of deformation fields underneath vickers indenter:Effects of power-law Plasticity

The effects of power-law plasticity (yield strength and strain hardening exponent) on the plastic strain distribution underneath a Vickers indenter was systematically investigated by recourse to three-dimensional finite element analysis, motivated by the experimental macro-and micro-indentation on heat-treated Al-Zn-Mg alloy. For meaningful comparison between simulated and experimental results, the experimental heat treatment was carefully designed such that Al alloy achieve similar yield strength with different strain hardening exponent, and vice versa. On the other hand, full 3D simulation of Vickers indentation was conducted to capture subsurface strain distribution. Subtle differences and similarities were discussed based on the strain field shape, size and magnitude for the isolated effect of yield strength and strain hardening exponent.

Atomistic simulation studies of the cement paste components

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Simulation of micromegas detector by garfield program

In this paper, a batch file which describes the detailed structure and the corresponding physical process of Micro-Mesh Gaseous Structure (Micromegas) detector, the macro commands and the control structures based on the Garfield program has been developed. And using the Garfield program controlled by this batch file, the detector's gain and spatial resolution have been investigated under different conditions. These results obtained by the simulation program not only exhibit the influences of the mesh and drift voltage, the mixture gas proportion, the distance between the mesh cathode and the printed circuit board readout anode, and the Lines Per Inch of the mesh cathode on the gain and spatial resolution of the detector, but also are very important to optimize the design, shorten the experimental period, and save cost during the detector development. Additionally, they also indicate that the Garfield program is a powerful tool for the Micromegas detector design and optimization.

THE APPLICATION OF ULTRAMICROELECTRODE IN HOMOGENEOUS CATALYTIC REACTION .5. ELECTROCHEMICAL-BEHAVIOR OF MACRO-MICRO-MACRO TRIPLE AND MICRO-MICRO TWIN ELECTRODES AND THE QUASI-FIRST-ORDER HOMOGENEOUS CATALYTIC REACTION (EC') AT GENERATION/COLLECTION ELECT

A new type of macro-micro-macro triple electrode has been fabricated, the steady-state currents of solution redox species have been observed at an ultramicroband electrode by linear potential scan voltammetry, and generation/collection experiments have al

Integration of micro- and macroscopic models for pedestrian evacuation simulation

Simulation of pedestrian evacuations of smart buildings in emergency is a powerful tool for building analysis, dynamic evacuation planning and real-time response to the evolving state of evacuations. Macroscopic pedestrian models are low-complexity models that are and well suited to algorithmic analysis and planning, but are quite abstract. Microscopic simulation models allow for a high level of simulation detail but can be computationally intensive. By combining micro- and macro- models we can use each to overcome the shortcomings of the other and enable new capability and applications for pedestrian evacuation simulation that would not be possible with either alone. We develop the EvacSim multi-agent pedestrian simulator and procedurally generate macroscopic flow graph models of building space, integrating micro- and macroscopic approaches to simulation of the same emergency space. By “coupling” flow graph parameters to microscopic simulation results, the graph model captures some of the higher detail and fidelity of the complex microscopic simulation model. The coupled flow graph is used for analysis and prediction of the movement of pedestrians in the microscopic simulation, and investigate the performance of dynamic evacuation planning in simulated emergencies using a variety of strategies for allocation of macroscopic evacuation routes to microscopic pedestrian agents. The predictive capability of the coupled flow graph is exploited for the decomposition of microscopic simulation space into multiple future states in a scalable manner. By simulating multiple future states of the emergency in short time frames, this enables sensing strategy based on simulation scenario pattern matching which we show to achieve fast scenario matching, enabling rich, real-time feedback in emergencies in buildings with meagre sensing capabilities.

Assessing macro uncertainty in real-time when data are subject to revision

Model-based estimates of future uncertainty are generally based on the in-sample fit of the model, as when Box-Jenkins prediction intervals are calculated. However, this approach will generate biased uncertainty estimates in real time when there are data revisions. A simple remedy is suggested, and used to generate more accurate prediction intervals for 25 macroeconomic variables, in line with the theory. A simulation study based on an empirically-estimated model of data revisions for US output growth is used to investigate small-sample properties.

Simulation of dynamic recrystallization using random grid cellular automata

Computer simulation is a powerful tool to predict microstructure and its evolution in dynamic and post-dynamic recrystallization. CAFE proposed as an appropriate approach by combining finite element (FE) method and cellular automata (CA) for recrystallization simulation. In the current study, a random grid cellular automaton (CA), as micro-scale model, based on finite element (FE), as macro-scale method, has been used to study initial and evolving microstructural features; including nuclei densities, dislocation densities, grain size and grain boundary movement during dynamic recrystallization in a C-Mn steel. An optimized relation has been established between mechanical variables and evolving microstructure features during recrystallization and grain growth. In this model, the microstructure is defined as cells located within grains and grain boundaries while dislocations are randomly dispersed throughout microstructure. Changes of dislocation density during deformation are described considering hardening, recovery and recrystallization. Recrystallization is assumed to initiate near grain boundaries and nucleation rate was considered constant (site-saturated condition). The model produced a mathematical formulation which captured the initial and evolving microstructural entities and linked their effects to measurable macroscopic variables (e.g. stress).