Climate and carbon cycle changes from 1850 to 2100 in MPI-ESM simulations for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5

The new Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) is used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) in a series of climate change experiments for either idealized CO2-only forcing or forcings based on observations and the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. The paper gives an overview of the model configurations, experiments related forcings, and initialization procedures and presents results for the simulated changes in climate and carbon cycle. It is found that the climate feedback depends on the global warming and possibly the forcing history. The global warming from climatological 1850 conditions to 2080–2100 ranges from 1.5°C under the RCP2.6 scenario to 4.4°C under the RCP8.5 scenario. Over this range, the patterns of temperature and precipitation change are nearly independent of the global warming. The model shows a tendency to reduce the ocean heat uptake efficiency toward a warmer climate, and hence acceleration in warming in the later years. The precipitation sensitivity can be as high as 2.5% K−1 if the CO2 concentration is constant, or as small as 1.6% K−1, if the CO2 concentration is increasing. The oceanic uptake of anthropogenic carbon increases over time in all scenarios, being smallest in the experiment forced by RCP2.6 and largest in that for RCP8.5. The land also serves as a net carbon sink in all scenarios, predominantly in boreal regions. The strong tropical carbon sources found in the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 experiments are almost absent in the RCP4.5 experiment, which can be explained by reforestation in the RCP4.5 scenario.

Comparison of co-located independent ground-based middle atmospheric wind and temperature measurements with numerical weather prediction models

High-resolution, ground-based and independent observations including co-located wind radiometer, lidar stations, and infrasound instruments are used to evaluate the accuracy of general circulation models and data-constrained assimilation systems in the middle atmosphere at northern hemisphere midlatitudes. Systematic comparisons between observations, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) operational analyses including the recent Integrated Forecast System cycles 38r1 and 38r2, the NASA’s Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalyses, and the free-running climate Max Planck Institute–Earth System Model–Low Resolution (MPI-ESM-LR) are carried out in both temporal and spectral dom ains. We find that ECMWF and MERRA are broadly consistent with lidar and wind radiometer measurements up to ~40 km. For both temperature and horizontal wind components, deviations increase with altitude as the assimilated observations become sparser. Between 40 and 60 km altitude, the standard deviation of the mean difference exceeds 5 K for the temperature and 20 m/s for the zonal wind. The largest deviations are observed in winter when the variability from large-scale planetary waves dominates. Between lidar data and MPI-ESM-LR, there is an overall agreement in spectral amplitude down to 15–20 days. At shorter time scales, the variability is lacking in the model by ~10 dB. Infrasound observations indicate a general good agreement with ECWMF wind and temperature products. As such, this study demonstrates the potential of the infrastructure of the Atmospheric Dynamics Research Infrastructure in Europe project that integrates various measurements and provides a quantitative understanding of stratosphere-troposphere dynamical coupling for numerical weather prediction applications.

Alteração climática dos índices de estabilidade na Peninsula Iberica

Este trabalho tem como objetivo a comparação da intensidade, frequência e distribuição de um conjunto de índices de estabilidade atmosférica simulados entre o clima histórico (1986-2005) e um cenário climático (2081-2100) na Península Ibérica. Considerou-se o cenário de emissão de gases RCP8.5. Estes índices avaliam a instabilidade atmosférica que é um elemento fundamental e percursor no desenvolvimento de tempestades. Através dos seus valores limite, é possível estimar alterações na probabilidade de ocorrência de eventos extremos que se poderão desenvolver no clima futuro, relativamente ao histórico. Primeiro, utilizou-se um conjunto de simulações do WRF com dois forçamentos: reanálises do ERA-Interim e um modelo do Max Planck Institute. De seguida, foram calculados diferentes índices de estabilidade. A validação do modelo consistiu no cálculo das médias sazonais, da sua diferença e das respetivas PDFs dos índices simulados pelo WRF-MPI e WRF-ERA. Verifica-se uma sobrestimação do CAPE, SHR6km (vento de corte) e SWEAT simulados pelo WRF-MPI. No entanto, nos campos dos índices simulados pelos dois forçamentos para o período histórico, verifica-se que os padrões espaciais são semelhantes apesar das diferenças na intensidade. Como as alterações climáticas dos índices são avaliadas através de diferenças, estas discrepâncias não invalidam a utilização do modelo no futuro. Posteriormente foram estudadas as alterações climáticas dos índices através da comparação entre o clima histórico e futuro. Estima-se um aumento da intensidade do CAPE e uma diminuição (aumento) da frequência de eventos com intensidade reduzida (elevada). Estas alterações são robustas no verão e outono. Também é esperado um aumento da intensidade do SHR6km na primavera e inverno tal como da frequência de SHR6km elevado nestas estações e uma redução da intensidade e da frequência de eventos com SHR6km elevado nas restantes. Haverá um possível aumento robusto da intensidade do SWEAT no verão e outono, bem como da frequência destes valores. Concluindo, será provável um aumento da frequência dos ambientes favoráveis ao desenvolvimento de tempestades, devido a uma maior intensidade e probabilidade de ocorrência de valores extremos do CAPE e do SWEAT. No entanto, a redução do SHR6km, poderá diminuir a organização das tempestades e o seu tempo de vida.

Statistical-dynamical downscaling for wind energy potentials: evaluation and applications to decadal hindcasts and climate change projections

A statistical–dynamical downscaling (SDD) approach for the regionalization of wind energy output (Eout) over Europe with special focus on Germany is proposed. SDD uses an extended circulation weather type (CWT) analysis on global daily mean sea level pressure fields with the central point being located over Germany. Seventy-seven weather classes based on the associated CWT and the intensity of the geostrophic flow are identified. Representatives of these classes are dynamically downscaled with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM. By using weather class frequencies of different data sets, the simulated representatives are recombined to probability density functions (PDFs) of near-surface wind speed and finally to Eout of a sample wind turbine for present and future climate. This is performed for reanalysis, decadal hindcasts and long-term future projections. For evaluation purposes, results of SDD are compared to wind observations and to simulated Eout of purely dynamical downscaling (DD) methods. For the present climate, SDD is able to simulate realistic PDFs of 10-m wind speed for most stations in Germany. The resulting spatial Eout patterns are similar to DD-simulated Eout. In terms of decadal hindcasts, results of SDD are similar to DD-simulated Eout over Germany, Poland, Czech Republic, and Benelux, for which high correlations between annual Eout time series of SDD and DD are detected for selected hindcasts. Lower correlation is found for other European countries. It is demonstrated that SDD can be used to downscale the full ensemble of the Earth System Model of the Max Planck Institute (MPI-ESM) decadal prediction system. Long-term climate change projections in Special Report on Emission Scenarios of ECHAM5/MPI-OM as obtained by SDD agree well to the results of other studies using DD methods, with increasing Eout over northern Europe and a negative trend over southern Europe. Despite some biases, it is concluded that SDD is an adequate tool to assess regional wind energy changes in large model ensembles.

Decadal predictability of regional-scale peak winds over Europe using the Earth System Model of the Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology

The predictability of high impact weather events on multiple time scales is a crucial issue both in scientific and socio-economic terms. In this study, a statistical-dynamical downscaling (SDD) approach is applied to an ensemble of decadal hindcasts obtained with the Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) to estimate the decadal predictability of peak wind speeds (as a proxy for gusts) over Europe. Yearly initialized decadal ensemble simulations with ten members are investigated for the period 1979–2005. The SDD approach is trained with COSMO-CLM regional climate model simulations and ERA-Interim reanalysis data and applied to the MPI-ESM hindcasts. The simulations for the period 1990–1993, which was characterized by several windstorm clusters, are analyzed in detail. The anomalies of the 95 % peak wind quantile of the MPI-ESM hindcasts are in line with the positive anomalies in reanalysis data for this period. To evaluate both the skill of the decadal predictability system and the added value of the downscaling approach, quantile verification skill scores are calculated for both the MPI-ESM large-scale wind speeds and the SDD simulated regional peak winds. Skill scores are predominantly positive for the decadal predictability system, with the highest values for short lead times and for (peak) wind speeds equal or above the 75 % quantile. This provides evidence that the analyzed hindcasts and the downscaling technique are suitable for estimating wind and peak wind speeds over Central Europe on decadal time scales. The skill scores for SDD simulated peak winds are slightly lower than those for large-scale wind speeds. This behavior can be largely attributed to the fact that peak winds are a proxy for gusts, and thus have a higher variability than wind speeds. The introduced cost-efficient downscaling technique has the advantage of estimating not only wind speeds but also estimates peak winds (a proxy for gusts) and can be easily applied to large ensemble datasets like operational decadal prediction systems.

Decadal predictability of regional scale wind speed and wind energy potentials over Central Europe

Decadal predictions on timescales from one year to one decade are gaining importance since this time frame falls within the planning horizon of politics, economy and society. The present study examines the decadal predictability of regional wind speed and wind energy potentials in three generations of the MiKlip (‘Mittelfristige Klimaprognosen’) decadal prediction system. The system is based on the global Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM), and the three generations differ primarily in the ocean initialisation. Ensembles of uninitialised historical and yearly initialised hindcast experiments are used to assess the forecast skill for 10 m wind speeds and wind energy output (Eout) over Central Europe with lead times from one year to one decade. With this aim, a statistical-dynamical downscaling (SDD) approach is used for the regionalisation. Its added value is evaluated by comparison of skill scores for MPI-ESM large-scale wind speeds and SDD-simulated regional wind speeds. All three MPI-ESM ensemble generations show some forecast skill for annual mean wind speed and Eout over Central Europe on yearly and multi-yearly time scales. This forecast skill is mostly limited to the first years after initialisation. Differences between the three ensemble generations are generally small. The regionalisation preserves and sometimes increases the forecast skills of the global runs but results depend on lead time and ensemble generation. Moreover, regionalisation often improves the ensemble spread. Seasonal Eout skills are generally lower than for annual means. Skill scores are lowest during summer and persist longest in autumn. A large-scale westerly weather type with strong pressure gradients over Central Europe is identified as potential source of the skill for wind energy potentials, showing a similar forecast skill and a high correlation with Eout anomalies. These results are promising towards the establishment of a decadal prediction system for wind energy applications over Central Europe.

Antioxidant enzyme activity in Acidithiobacillus ferrooxidans LR maintained in contact with chalcopyrite

The total protein content and activity of the enzymes glutathione reductase (GR), superoxide dismutase (SOD) and thioredoxin reductase (TrxR) were evaluated in Acidithiobacillus ferrooxidans LR cells maintained in contact with the metal sulfide chalcopyrite for 1 and 10 days. A significant decrease in total protein content was observed in cells maintained for 10 days in the presence of chalcopyrite, suggesting proteolytic breakdown clue to exposure to the metal sulfide. Following 10 clays of contact with chalcopyrite, increases in GR, SOD and TrxR activities were detected, suggesting the formation of reactive oxygen species. After ten clays, there was a fivefold increase in GR activity, of which, isoenzyme IV represented approximately 82% of the total. An increase in Fe-SOD activity following ten days exposure to chalcopyrite was also determined, as measured on non-denaturing polyacrylamide gels. Also, after 10 days. an approximately 31-fold increase was observed for TrxR activity. The presence of oxidative stress when A. ferrooxidans is in the presence of chalcopyrite could have a negative impact on bioleaching. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Analysis of chemokines and reactive oxygen species formation by rat and human neutrophils induced by microcystin-LA, -YR and -LR

Microcystins (MC), a family of heptapeptide toxins produced by some genera of Cyanobacteria, have potent hepatotoxicity and tumor-promoting activity. Leukocyte infiltration in the liver was observed in MC-induced acute intoxication. Although the mechanisms of hepatotoxicity are still unclear, neutrophil infiltration in the liver may play an important role in triggering toxic injury and tumor development. The present study reports the effects of MC-LA, MC-YR and MC-LR (1 and 1000 nM) on human and rat neutrophils functions in vitro. Cell viability, DNA fragmentation, mitochondrial membrane depolarization and intracellular reactive oxygen species (ROS) levels were measured by flow cytometry. Extracellular ROS content was measured by lucigenin-amplified chemiluminescence, and cytokines were determined by ELISA. We found that these MC increased interleukin-8 (IL-8), cytokine-induced neutrophil chemoattractant-2 alpha beta (CINC-2 alpha beta) and extracellular ROS levels in human and rat neutrophils. Apart from neutrophil presence during the inflammatory process of MC-induced injury, our results suggest that hepatic neutrophil accumulation is further increased by MC-induced neutrophil-derived chemokine. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Can LASSBio 596 and dexamethasone treat acute lung and liver inflammation induced by microcystin-LR?

The treatment of microcystin-LR (MCYST-LR)-induced lung inflammation has never been reported Hence. LASSBio 596, an anti-Inflammatory drug candidate, designed as symbiotic agent that modulates TNF-alpha levels and inhibits phosphodiesterase types 4 and 5, or dexamethasone were tested in this condition Swiss mice were intraperitoneally (i p) injected with 60 mu l of saline (CTRL) or a sub-lethal dose of MCYST-LR (40 mu g/kg). 6 h later they were treated (i p.) with saline (TOX), LASSB10 596 (10 mg/kg, L596), or dexamethasone (1 mg/kg, 0.1 mL, DEXA). 8 h after MCYST-LR injection, pulmonary mechanics were determined, and lungs and livers prepared for histopathology, biochemical analysis and quantification of MCYST-LR. TOX showed significantly higher lung impedance than CTRL and L596, which were similar. DEXA could only partially block the mechanical alterations. In both TOX and DEXA alveolar collapse and inflammatory cell influx were higher than in CTRL and L596, being LASSB10 596 more effective than dexamethasone. TOX showed oxidative stress that was not present in an and L596, while DEXA was partially efficient. MCYST-LR was detected in the livers of all mice receiving MCYST-LR and no recovery was apparent In conclusion, LASSBio 596 was more efficient than dexamethasone in reducing the pulmonary functional impairment induced by MCYST-LR. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved

Influence of attenuation correction in the MPI image reconstructed by the ‘Evolution for Cardiac’™

The acquisition of a Myocardial Perfusion image (MPI) is of great importance for the diagnosis of the coronary artery disease, since it allows to evaluate which areas of the heart aren’t being properly perfused, in rest and stress situations. This exam is greatly influenced by photon attenuation which creates image artifacts and affects quantification. The acquisition of a Computerized Tomography (CT) image makes it possible to get an atomic images which can be used to perform high-quality attenuation corrections of the radiopharmaceutical distribution, in the MPI image. Studies show that by using hybrid imaging to perform diagnosis of the coronary artery disease, there is an increase on the specificity when evaluating the perfusion of the right coronary artery (RCA). Using an iterative algorithm with a resolution recovery software for the reconstruction, which balances the image quality, the administered activity and the scanning time, we aim to evaluate the influence of attenuation correction on the MPI image and the outcome in perfusion quantification and imaging quality.

Lettuce (Lactuca sativa L.) leaf-proteome profiles after exposure to cylindrospermopsin and a microcystin-LR/cylindrospermopsin mixture: A concentration-dependent response

The intensification of agricultural productivity is an important challenge worldwide. However, environmental stressors can provide challenges to this intensification. The progressive occurrence of the cyanotoxins cylindrospermopsin (CYN) and microcystin-LR (MC-LR) as a potential consequence of eutrophication and climate change is of increasing concern in the agricultural sector because it has been reported that these cyanotoxins exert harmful effects in crop plants. A proteomic-based approach has been shown to be a suitable tool for the detection and identification of the primary responses of organisms exposed to cyanotoxins. The aim of this study was to compare the leaf-proteome profiles of lettuce plants exposed to environmentally relevant concentrations of CYN and a MC-LR/CYN mixture. Lettuce plants were exposed to 1, 10, and 100 lg/l CYN and a MC-LR/CYN mixture for five days. The proteins of lettuce leaves were separated by twodimensional electrophoresis (2-DE), and those that were differentially abundant were then identified by matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization time of flight-mass spectrometry (MALDI-TOF/TOF MS). The biological functions of the proteins that were most represented in both experiments were photosynthesis and carbon metabolism and stress/defense response. Proteins involved in protein synthesis and signal transduction were also highly observed in the MC-LR/CYN experiment. Although distinct protein abundance patterns were observed in both experiments, the effects appear to be concentration-dependent, and the effects of the mixture were clearly stronger than those of CYN alone. The obtained results highlight the putative tolerance of lettuce to CYN at concentrations up to 100 lg/l. Furthermore, the combination of CYN with MC-LR at low concentrations (1 lg/l) stimulated a significant increase in the fresh weight (fr. wt) of lettuce leaves and at the proteomic level resulted in the increase in abundance of a high number of proteins. In contrast, many proteins exhibited a decrease in abundance or were absent in the gels of the simultaneous exposure to 10 and 100 lg/l MC-LR/CYN. In the latter, also a significant decrease in the fr. wt of lettuce leaves was obtained. These findings provide important insights into the molecular mechanisms of the lettuce response to CYN and MC-LR/CYN and may contribute to the identification of potential protein markers of exposure and proteins that may confer tolerance to CYN and MC-LR/CYN. Furthermore, because lettuce is an important crop worldwide, this study may improve our understanding of the potential impact of these cyanotoxins on its quality traits (e.g., presence of allergenic proteins).

Effects of storage, processing and proteolytic digestion on microcystin-LR concentration in edible clams

Accumulation of microcystin-LR (MC-LR) in edible aquatic organisms, particularly in bivalves, is widely documented. In this study, the effects of food storage and processing conditions on the free MC-LR concentration in clams (Corbicula fluminea) fed MC-LR-producing Microcystisaeruginosa (1 × 105 cell/mL) for four days, and the bioaccessibility of MC-LR after in vitro proteolytic digestion were investigated. The concentration of free MC-LR in clams decreased sequentially over the time with unrefrigerated and refrigerated storage and increased with freezing storage. Overall, cooking for short periods of time resulted in a significantly higher concentration (P < 0.05) of free MC-LR in clams, specifically microwave (MW) radiation treatment for 0.5 (57.5%) and 1 min (59%) and boiling treatment for 5 (163.4%) and 15 min (213.4%). The bioaccessibility of MC-LR after proteolytic digestion was reduced to 83%, potentially because of MC-LR degradation by pancreatic enzymes. Our results suggest that risk assessment based on direct comparison between MC-LR concentrations determined in raw food products and the tolerable daily intake (TDI) value set for the MC-LR might not be representative of true human exposure.

Early physiological and biochemical responses of rice seedlings to low concentration of microcystin-LR

Microcystin-leucine and arginine (microcystin- LR) is a cyanotoxin produced by cyanobacteria like Microcystis aeruginosa, and it’s considered a threat to water quality, agriculture, and human health. Rice (Oryzasativa) is a plant of great importance in human food consumption and economy, with extensive use around the world. It is therefore important to assess the possible effects of using water contaminated with microcystin-LR to irrigate rice crops, in order to ensure a safe, high quality product to consumers. In this study, 12 and 20-day-old plants were exposed during 2 or 7 days to a M. aeruginosa extract containing environmentally relevant microcystin-LR concentrations, 0.26–78 lg/L. Fresh and dry weight of roots and leaves, chlorophyll fluorescence, glutathione S-transferase and glutathione peroxidase activities, and protein identification by mass spectrometry through two-dimensional gel electrophoresis from root and leaf tissues, were evaluated in order to gauge the plant’s physiological condition and biochemical response after toxin exposure. Results obtained from plant biomass, chlorophyll fluorescence, and enzyme activity assays showed no significant differences between control and treatment groups. How- ever, proteomics data indicates that plants respond to M. aeruginosa extract containing environmentally relevant microcystin-LR concentrations by changing their metabolism, responding differently to different toxin concentrations. Biological processes most affected were related to protein folding and stress response, protein biosynthesis, cell signalling and gene expression regulation, and energy and carbohydrate metabolism which may denote a toxic effect induced by M. aeruginosa extract and microcystin- LR. Theimplications of the metabolic alterations in plant physiology and growth require further elucidation.

Label-free Detection of Microcystin-LR in Waters Using Real-Time Potentiometric Biosensors Based on Single-Walled Carbon Nanotubes Imprinted Polymers

Microcystin-LR (MC-LR) is a dangerous toxin found in environmental waters, quantified by high performance liquid chromatography and/or enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays. Quick, low cost and on-site analysis is thus required to ensure human safety and wide screening programs. This work proposes label-free potentiometric sensors made of solid-contact electrodes coated with a surface imprinted polymer on the surface of Multi-Walled Carbon NanoTubes (CNTs) incorporated in a polyvinyl chloride membrane. The imprinting effect was checked by using non-imprinted materials. The MC-LR sensitive sensors were evaluated, characterized and applied successfully in spiked environmental waters. The presented method offered the advantages of low cost, portability, easy operation and suitability for adaptation to flow methods.

Determination of Microcystin-LR in waters in the subnanomolar range by sol–gel imprinted polymers on solid contact electrodes

The present work reports new sensors for the direct determination of Microcystin-LR (MC-LR) in environmental waters. Both selective membrane and solid contact were optimized to ensure suitable analytical features in potentiometric transduction. The sensing layer consisted of Imprinted Sol–Gel (ISG) materials capable of establishing surface interactions with MC-LR. Non-Imprinted Sol–Gel (NISG) membranes were used as negative control. The effects of an ionic lipophilic additive, time of sol–gel polymerization, time of extraction of MC-LR from the sensitive layer, and pH were also studied. The solid contact was made of carbon, aluminium, titanium, copper or nickel/chromium alloys (80 : 20 or 90 : 10). The best ISG sensor had a carbon solid contact and displayed average slopes of 211.3 mV per decade, with detection limits of 7.3 1010 M, corresponding to 0.75 mg L1 . It showed linear responses in the range of 7.7 1010 to 1.9 109 M of MC-LR (corresponding to 0.77–2.00 mg L1 ), thus including the limiting value for MC-LR in waters (1.0 mg L1 ). The potentiometric-selectivity coefficients were assessed by the matched potential method for ionic species regularly found in waters up to their limiting levels. Chloride (Cl) showed limited interference while aluminium (Al3+), ammonium (NH4 + ), magnesium (Mg2+), manganese (Mn2+), sodium (Na+ ), and sulfate (SO4 2) were unable to cause the required potential change. Spiked solutions were tested with the proposed sensor. The relative errors and standard deviation obtained confirmed the accuracy and precision of the method. It also offered the advantages of low cost, portability, easy operation and suitability for adaptation to flow methods.