Estudo da quantificação de incertezas para o problema de contaminação de meios porosos heterogêneos

As técnicas de injeção de traçadores têm sido amplamente utilizadas na investigação de escoamentos em meios porosos, principalmente em problemas envolvendo a simulação numérica de escoamentos miscíveis em reservatórios de petróleo e o transporte de contaminantes em aquíferos. Reservatórios subterrâneos são em geral heterogêneos e podem apresentar variações significativas das suas propriedades em várias escalas de comprimento. Estas variações espaciais são incorporadas às equações que governam o escoamento no interior do meio poroso por meio de campos aleatórios. Estes campos podem prover uma descrição das heterogeneidades da formação subterrânea nos casos onde o conhecimento geológico não fornece o detalhamento necessário para a predição determinística do escoamento através do meio poroso. Nesta tese é empregado um modelo lognormal para o campo de permeabilidades a fim de reproduzir-se a distribuição de permeabilidades do meio real, e a geração numérica destes campos aleatórios é feita pelo método da Soma Sucessiva de Campos Gaussianos Independentes (SSCGI). O objetivo principal deste trabalho é o estudo da quantificação de incertezas para o problema inverso do transporte de um traçador em um meio poroso heterogêneo empregando uma abordagem Bayesiana para a atualização dos campos de permeabilidades, baseada na medição dos valores da concentração espacial do traçador em tempos específicos. Um método do tipo Markov Chain Monte Carlo a dois estágios é utilizado na amostragem da distribuição de probabilidade a posteriori e a cadeia de Markov é construída a partir da reconstrução aleatória dos campos de permeabilidades. Na resolução do problema de pressão-velocidade que governa o escoamento empregase um método do tipo Elementos Finitos Mistos adequado para o cálculo acurado dos fluxos em campos de permeabilidades heterogêneos e uma abordagem Lagrangiana, o método Forward Integral Tracking (FIT), é utilizada na simulação numérica do problema do transporte do traçador. Resultados numéricos são obtidos e apresentados para um conjunto de realizações amostrais dos campos de permeabilidades.

Modelos para dados grupados e sensurados aplicados à área biológica: comparação usando fator de Bayes

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Visualization of predictive distributions for discrete spatial-temporal log Cox processes approximated with MCMC

An important aspect of decision support systems involves applying sophisticated and flexible statistical models to real datasets and communicating these results to decision makers in interpretable ways. An important class of problem is the modelling of incidence such as fire, disease etc. Models of incidence known as point processes or Cox processes are particularly challenging as they are ‘doubly stochastic’ i.e. obtaining the probability mass function of incidents requires two integrals to be evaluated. Existing approaches to the problem either use simple models that obtain predictions using plug-in point estimates and do not distinguish between Cox processes and density estimation but do use sophisticated 3D visualization for interpretation. Alternatively other work employs sophisticated non-parametric Bayesian Cox process models, but do not use visualization to render interpretable complex spatial temporal forecasts. The contribution here is to fill this gap by inferring predictive distributions of Gaussian-log Cox processes and rendering them using state of the art 3D visualization techniques. This requires performing inference on an approximation of the model on a discretized grid of large scale and adapting an existing spatial-diurnal kernel to the log Gaussian Cox process context.

GPU accelerated MCMC for modelling terrorist activity

The use of graphical processing unit (GPU) parallel processing is becoming a part of mainstream statistical practice. The reliance of Bayesian statistics on Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods makes the applicability of parallel processing not immediately obvious. It is illustrated that there are substantial gains in improved computational time for MCMC and other methods of evaluation by computing the likelihood using GPU parallel processing. Examples use data from the Global Terrorism Database to model terrorist activity in Colombia from 2000 through 2010 and a likelihood based on the explicit convolution of two negative-binomial processes. Results show decreases in computational time by a factor of over 200. Factors influencing these improvements and guidelines for programming parallel implementations of the likelihood are discussed.

Efficiency comparison of Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation with subset simulation (MCMC/ss) to standard Monte Carlo Simulation (sMC) for extreme event scenarios

Standard Monte Carlo (sMC) simulation models have been widely used in AEC industry research to address system uncertainties. Although the benefits of probabilistic simulation analyses over deterministic methods are well documented, the sMC simulation technique is quite sensitive to the probability distributions of the input variables. This phenomenon becomes highly pronounced when the region of interest within the joint probability distribution (a function of the input variables) is small. In such cases, the standard Monte Carlo approach is often impractical from a computational standpoint. In this paper, a comparative analysis of standard Monte Carlo simulation to Markov Chain Monte Carlo with subset simulation (MCMC/ss) is presented. The MCMC/ss technique constitutes a more complex simulation method (relative to sMC), wherein a structured sampling algorithm is employed in place of completely randomized sampling. Consequently, gains in computational efficiency can be made. The two simulation methods are compared via theoretical case studies.

Computation of ECG signal features using MCMC modelling in software and FPGA reconfigurable hardware

Computational optimisation of clinically important electrocardiogram signal features, within a single heart beat, using a Markov-chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method is undertaken. A detailed, efficient data-driven software implementation of an MCMC algorithm has been shown. Initially software parallelisation is explored and has been shown that despite the large amount of model parameter inter-dependency that parallelisation is possible. Also, an initial reconfigurable hardware approach is explored for future applicability to real-time computation on a portable ECG device, under continuous extended use.

Accelerating Pseudo-Marginal MCMC using Gaussian Processes

Pseudo-marginal methods such as the grouped independence Metropolis-Hastings (GIMH) and Markov chain within Metropolis (MCWM) algorithms have been introduced in the literature as an approach to perform Bayesian inference in latent variable models. These methods replace intractable likelihood calculations with unbiased estimates within Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms. The GIMH method has the posterior of interest as its limiting distribution, but suffers from poor mixing if it is too computationally intensive to obtain high-precision likelihood estimates. The MCWM algorithm has better mixing properties, but less theoretical support. In this paper we propose to use Gaussian processes (GP) to accelerate the GIMH method, whilst using a short pilot run of MCWM to train the GP. Our new method, GP-GIMH, is illustrated on simulated data from a stochastic volatility and a gene network model.

Near-optimal large-MIMO detection using randomized MCMC and randomized search algorithms

Low-complexity near-optimal detection of signals in MIMO systems with large number (tens) of antennas is getting increased attention. In this paper, first, we propose a variant of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm which i) alleviates the stalling problem encountered in conventional MCMC algorithm at high SNRs, and ii) achieves near-optimal performance for large number of antennas (e.g., 16×16, 32×32, 64×64 MIMO) with 4-QAM. We call this proposed algorithm as randomized MCMC (R-MCMC) algorithm. Second, we propose an other algorithm based on a random selection approach to choose candidate vectors to be tested in a local neighborhood search. This algorithm, which we call as randomized search (RS) algorithm, also achieves near-optimal performance for large number of antennas with 4-QAM. The complexities of the proposed R-MCMC and RS algorithms are quadratic/sub-quadratic in number of transmit antennas, which are attractive for detection in large-MIMO systems. We also propose message passing aided R-MCMC and RS algorithms, which are shown to perform well for higher-order QAM.

A novel MCMC algorithm for near-optimal detection in large-scale uplink mulituser MIMO systems

In this paper, we propose a low-complexity algorithm based on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique for signal detection on the uplink in large scale multiuser multiple input multiple output (MIMO) systems with tens to hundreds of antennas at the base station (BS) and similar number of uplink users. The algorithm employs a randomized sampling method (which makes a probabilistic choice between Gibbs sampling and random sampling in each iteration) for detection. The proposed algorithm alleviates the stalling problem encountered at high SNRs in conventional MCMC algorithm and achieves near-optimal performance in large systems with M-QAM. A novel ingredient in the algorithm that is responsible for achieving near-optimal performance at low complexities is the joint use of a randomized MCMC (R-MCMC) strategy coupled with a multiple restart strategy with an efficient restart criterion. Near-optimal detection performance is demonstrated for large number of BS antennas and users (e.g., 64, 128, 256 BS antennas/users).

Una elipse con dos focos : hacia un nuevo método teológico a partir de Gaudium et Spes

Resumen: La forma sistemática del pensar creyente fue objeto de importantes debates durante la realización del Vaticano II, particularmente por la novedad que presentaba la introducción de un método inductivo en la enseñanza de la Iglesia. Se advirtió que allí se incluía una reflexión de largo alcance sobre la autocomprensión de la Iglesia y, de este modo, un debate neurálgico para el objetivo del Concilio. Dicho método, cuestionado posteriormente, ha tenido particular relevancia en el posconcilio latinoamericano. Está en juego la posibilidad de que la Iglesia, la fe y la teología sean menos impermeables a las inquietudes que emergen de las complejas experiencias biográficas y al clamor que brota desde el mundo del sufrimiento y de los pobres.

El neoconstitucionalismo en la reforma del CC y Com. : el protagonismo del juez en el estado de derecho y el problema del método de ponderación

Una atenta lectura del “Título Preliminar” del Anteproyecto del Código Civil y Comercial y sus Fundamentos presentado por la Comisión integrada por los Dres. Ricardo Lorenzetti, Elena Highton de Nolasco y Aída Kemelmajer de Carlucci, en cumplimiento del Decreto presidencial Nº 191/2011, muestra una cuestión relevante para la Teoría general del derecho desde el punto de vista ius-filosófico: que tal reforma integral colocará a nuestro ordenamiento jurídico privado en la vía de la llamada “constitucionalización del derecho”...

Reflexiones sobre el método moral en persona humana

Siguiendo a Gaudium et spes (51.3), la declaración Persona humana reafirma que la bondad moral de las conductas sexuales depende de “criterios objetivos tomados de la naturaleza de la persona y de sus actos” (PH 5.4). Esto no es expresión de un objetivismo naturalista, sino que surge del respeto de la “verdadera dignidad humana” y del sentido de su sexualidad. Estas afirmaciones deben ser comprendidas en el marco de la ética de la virtud, según la cual la razón práctica descubre naturalmente los bienes humanos y debidos, los fines virtuosos, en las inclinaciones naturales. A partir de ello es posible afirmar la existencia de conductas que contradicen dichas finalidades por su mismo objeto, aunque ello no exime de la necesidad de considerar los contextos a partir de los cuales las mismas se definen en su genus moris. Aplicando estos principios al ámbito de la sexualidad, se debe afirmar que el recto ejercicio de la misma tiene una referencia intrínseca y necesaria al matrimonio, aunque al mismo tiempo es preciso reconocer un cierto grado de tensión entre el orden de la castidad y el orden jurídico positivo. Estas consideraciones muestran que, precisamente por coherencia con la doctrina de la virtud y de los absolutos morales, es preciso que la teología moral evite la tentación del deductivismo, y se comprometa en un trabajo de refinamiento de las tipologías con mayor atención a los casos concretos. De este modo, podrá responder más adecuadamente al desafío de un contexto social en constante evolución. Con este artículo, el autor aporta precisiones para expresar mejor lo expuesto en dos artículos anteriores: “¿Relaciones prematrimoniales en «situaciones-límite »?”, Teología 83 (2004), y “El teleologismo después de la Veritatis Splendor”, Moralia 97 (2003).

Un método de muestreo de malezas para pequeños productores de maíz y frijol en Centroamérica

Se diseñó un método simple de muestreo de malezas a ser utilizado en entrenamiento participativo en programas de manejo integrado de plagas (MIP). Se utilizaron 50 cuadrantes circulares (diámetro de 35 cm), distribuidos en forma de zigzag, en los cuales los productores observaron la caber· tura total de malezas, la presencia de las mismas y la fenologia de las especies y tipos de malezas. Con el propósito de validar el método, se seleccionaron cuatro campos en los cuales se establecieron 100 cuadrantes para medir biomasa, densidad y cobertura de las malezas, todo esto antes del primer control de las mismas. Los resultados muestran campos con presencia de 17 a 33 especies, con 3.5 a 4.7 especies por cuadrante. La cobertura de las malezas vario entre 23 y 34 por ciento, con densidad de 134 a 214 individuos y una biomasa acumulada variando entre 171 y 213 g 1m2. Ningún cuadrante estuvo libre de malezas. Se estimó el coeficiente de variación de la cobertura de las malezas, el cual se estimó construyendo 5 sub-muestras obtenidas al azar de 25, 50 y 75 cuadrantes, que arrojaron valores de CV de 11, 8 y 4 por ciento respectivamente. Se estimó, también, la correlación (r) entre cobertura de malezas y biomasa y de cobertura con densidad de malezas. La misma viario entre los campos de 0.62-0.77 y de 0.59-0.78 respectivamente. Las especies mas frecuentes en los 50 circulas obtuvieron las mayores densidades y la mayor biomasa.