Incubation period of Hemileia vastatrix in coffee plants in Brazil simulated under climate change

Risk analysis of climate change on plant diseases has great importance for agriculture since it allows the evaluation of management strategies to minimize future damages. This work aimed to simulate future scenarios of coffee rust (Hemileia vastatrix) epidemics by elaborating geographic distribution maps using a model that estimates the pathogen incubation period and the output from three General Circulation Models (CSIRO-Mk3.0, INM-CM3.0, and MIROC3.2.medres). The climatological normal from 1961-1990 was compared with that of the decades 2020s, 2050s and 2080s using scenarios A2 and B1 from the IPCC. Maps were prepared with a spatial resolution of 0.5 × 0.5 degrees of latitude and longitude for ten producing states in Brazil. The climate variables used were maximum and minimum monthly temperatures. The maps obtained in scenario A2 showed a tendency towards a reduction in the incubation period when future scenarios are compared with the climatological normal from 1961-1990. A reduction in the period was also observed in scenario B1, although smaller than that in scenario A2.

Repeated challenge with prion disease: The risk of infection and impact on incubation period

Natural exposure to prion disease is likely to occur throughout successive challenges, yet most experiments focus on single large doses of infectious material. We analyze the results from an experiment in which rodents were exposed to multiple doses of feed contaminated with the scrapie agent. We formally define hypotheses for how the doses combine in terms of statistical models. The competing hypotheses are that only the total dose of infectivity is important (cumulative model), doses act independently, or a general alternative that interaction between successive doses occurs (to raise or lower the risk of infection). We provide sample size calculations to distinguish these hypotheses. In the experiment, a fixed total dose has a significantly reduced probability of causing infection if the material is presented as multiple challenges, and as the time between challenges lengthens. Incubation periods are shorter and less variable if all material is consumed on one occasion. We show that the probability of infection is inconsistent with the hypothesis that each dose acts as a cumulative or independent challenge. The incubation periods are inconsistent with the independence hypothesis. Thus, although a trend exists for the risk of infection with prion disease to increase with repeated doses, it does so to a lesser degree than is expected if challenges combine independently or in a cumulative manner.

Effect of temperature on incubation period, embryonic mortality, hatch rate, egg water loss and partridge chick weight (Rhynchotus rufescens)

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Does anti-hepatitis B virus vaccine make any difference in long-term number of liver transplantation?

Background: Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is a major cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Chronic hepatitis B infection is associated with an increased risk of cirrhosis, hepatic decompensation, and hepatocellular carcinoma. Our aim is to analyze, through a mathematical model, the potential impact of anti-HBV vaccine in the long-term (that is, decades after vaccination) number of LT. Methods: The model simulated that the prevalence of HBV infection was 0.5% and that approximately 20% of all the liver transplantation carried out in the state of Sao Paulo are due to HBV infection. Results: The theoretical model suggests that a vaccination program that would cover 80% of the target population would reach a maximum of about 14% reduction in the LT program. Conclusion: Increasing the vaccination coverage against HBV in the state of Sao Paulo would have a relatively low impact on the number of liver transplantation. In addition, this impact would take several decades to materialize due to the long incubation period of liver failure due to HBV.

The Impact of Uncertainty in the AIDS Incubation Period on Reconstructions of the HIV Epidemic

Backcalculation is the primary method used to reconstruct past human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection rates, to estimate current prevalence of HIV infection, and to project future incidence of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS). The method is very sensitive to uncertainty about the incubation period. We estimate incubation distributions from three sets of cohort data and find that the estimates for the cohorts are substantially different. Backcalculations employing the different estimates produce equally good fits to reported AIDS counts but quite different estimates of cumulative infections. These results suggest that the incubation distribution is likely to differ for different populations and that the differences are large enough to have a big impact on the resulting estimates of HIV infection rates. This seriously limits the usefulness of backcalculation for populations (such as intravenous drug users, heterosexuals, and women) that lack precise information on incubation times.

Uncertainty About the Incubation Period of AIDS and its Impact on Backcalculation

We analyze three sets of doubly-censored cohort data on incubation times, estimating incubation distributions using semi-parametric methods and assessing the comparability of the estimates. Weibull models appear to be inappropriate for at least one of the cohorts, and the estimates for the different cohorts are substantially different. We use these estimates as inputs for backcalculation, using a nonparametric method based on maximum penalized likelihood. The different incubations all produce fits to the reported AIDS counts that are as good as the fit from a nonstationary incubation distribution that models treatment effects, but the estimated infection curves are very different. We also develop a method for estimating nonstationarity as part of the backcalculation procedure and find that such estimates also depend very heavily on the assumed incubation distribution. We conclude that incubation distributions are so uncertain that meaningful error bounds are difficult to place on backcalculated estimates and that backcalculation may be too unreliable to be used without being supplemented by other sources of information in HIV prevalence and incidence.

Identification of multiple quantitative trait loci linked to prion disease incubation period in mice

Polymorphisms in the prion protein gene are known to affect prion disease incubation times and susceptibility in humans and mice. However, studies with inbred lines of mice show that large differences in incubation times occur even with the same amino acid sequence of the prion protein, suggesting that other genes may contribute to the observed variation. To identify these loci we analyzed 1,009 animals from an F2 intercross between two strains of mice, CAST/Ei and NZW/OlaHSd, with significantly different incubation periods when challenged with RML scrapie prions. Interval mapping identified three highly significantly linked regions on chromosomes 2, 11, and 12; composite interval mapping suggests that each of these regions includes multiple linked quantitative trait loci. Suggestive evidence for linkage was obtained on chromosomes 6 and 7. The sequence conservation between the mouse and human genome suggests that identification of mouse prion susceptibility alleles may have direct relevance to understanding human susceptibility to bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) infection, as well as identifying key factors in the molecular pathways of prion pathogenesis. However, the demonstration of other major genetic effects on incubation period suggests the need for extreme caution in interpreting estimates of variant Creutzfeldt–Jakob disease epidemic size utilizing existing epidemiological models.

Genetic and environmental factors modify bovine spongiform encephalopathy incubation period in mice

The incubation period (IP) and the neuropathology of transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSEs) have been extensively used to distinguish prion isolates (or strains) inoculated into panels of inbred mouse strains. Such studies have shown that the bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) agent is indistinguishable from the agent causing variant Creutzfeldt–Jakob disease (vCJD), but differs from isolates of sporadic CJD, reinforcing the idea that the vCJD epidemic in Britain results from consumption of contaminated beef products. We present a mouse model for genetic and environmental factors that modify the incubation period of BSE cross-species transmission. We have used two mouse strains that carry the same prion protein (PrP) allele, but display a 100-day difference in their mean IP following intracerebral inoculation with primary BSE isolate. We report genetic effects on IP that map to four chromosomal regions, and in addition we find significant factors of host environment, namely the age of the host's mother, the age of the host at infection, and an X-cytoplasm interaction in the host.

Distribution and at-sea activity of a nocturnal seabird, the Bulwer's petrel Bulweria bulwerii, during the incubation period

Bulwer'spetrelsarenocturnalseabirdsthatmostlypreyonmesopelagicfauna.Asaerialforagersand shallowdivers,theirfeedingopportunitiesarelimitedbynear-surfaceavailabilityoftheirprey,whichis highlyvariablebothtemporally(reflectingdiurnalandlunarcycles)andspatially.Herewestudiedhow Bulwer'spetrelscopewiththeseconstraintsbyanalysingtheirat-seadistributionandactivityduringthe incubationperiod.Wetrackedthemovementsof20birdsfromSelvagemGrande(NEAtlantic)duringa completelunarcycle,andrecorded30foragingtripsthatlasted11daysonaverage.Birdswereboth distributedaroundthecolonyandinwatersclosetotheAzoreanarchipelago(mid-Atlantic)located 1700kmaway,andweresignificantlymoreactiveatnight(especiallyjustaftersunsetandbeforesunrise), whenmesopelagicfaunaisalsoclosertotheseasurfaceduetotheirdielverticalmigrations.Bulwer's petrelsspentsignificantlymoretime flyingduringmoonlight,althoughtheeffectofthemoonwasrela- tivelyweak(ca.10–15%differencebetweenmoonlitanddarkperiodsofthenight),andnotobviouswhen birdswereforaginginmid-Atlanticwaters,whichwerealsotargetedmoreoftenduringfull-moon.These resultsrevealkeyadaptationsoftheBulwer'spetreltothehighlydynamicecologyofitsmesopelagicprey.

A Rosetta Stone For Nature's Benefits To People.

After a long incubation period, the Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) is now underway. Underpinning all its activities is the IPBES Conceptual Framework (CF), a simplified model of the interactions between nature and people. Drawing on the legacy of previous large-scale environmental assessments, the CF goes further in explicitly embracing different disciplines and knowledge systems (including indigenous and local knowledge) in the co-construction of assessments of the state of the world's biodiversity and the benefits it provides to humans. The CF can be thought of as a kind of Rosetta Stone that highlights commonalities between diverse value sets and seeks to facilitate crossdisciplinary and crosscultural understanding. We argue that the CF will contribute to the increasing trend towards interdisciplinarity in understanding and managing the environment. Rather than displacing disciplinary science, however, we believe that the CF will provide new contexts of discovery and policy applications for it.

Lepromatous leprosy: a review and case report

Leprosy is a contagious and chronic systemic granulomatous disease caused by Mycobacterium leprae (Hansen"s bacillus). It is transmitted from person to person and has a long incubation period (between two and six years). The disease presents polar clinical forms (the"multibacillary" lepromatous leprosy and the"paucibacillary" tuberculoid leprosy), as well as other intermediate forms with hybrid characteristics. Oral manifestations usually appear in lepromatous leprosy and occur in 20-60% of cases. They may take the form of multiple nodules (lepromas) that progress to necrosis and ulceration. The ulcers are slow to heal, and produce atrophic scarring or even tissue destruction. The lesions are usually located on the hard and soft palate, in the uvula, on the underside of the tongue, and on the lips and gums. There may also be destruction of the anterior maxilla and loss of teeth. The diagnosis, based on clinical suspicion, is confirmed through bacteriological and histopathological analyses, as well as by means of the lepromin test (intradermal reaction that is usually negative in lepromatous leprosy form and positive in the tuberculoid form). The differential diagnosis includes systemic lupus erythematosus, sarcoidosis, cutaneous leishmaniasis and other skin diseases, tertiary syphilis, lymphomas, systemic mycosis, traumatic lesions and malignant neoplasias, among other disorders. Treatment is difficult as it must be continued for long periods, requires several drugs with adverse effects and proves very expensive, particularly for less developed countries. The most commonly used drugs are dapsone, rifampicin and clofazimine. Quinolones, such as ofloxacin and pefloxacin, as well as some macrolides, such as clarithromycin and minocyclin, are also effective. The present case report describes a patient with lepromatous leprosy acquired within a contagious family setting during childhood and adolescence