Spatial electric load forecasting using a local movement approach

An agent based model for spatial electric load forecasting using a local movement approach for the spatiotemporal allocation of the new loads in the service zone is presented. The density of electrical load for each of the major consumer classes in each sub-zone is used as the current state of the agents. The spatial growth is simulated with a walking agent who starts his path in one of the activity centers of the city and goes to the limits of the city following a radial path depending on the different load levels. A series of update rules are established to simulate the S growth behavior and the complementarity between classes. The results are presented in future load density maps. The tests in a real system from a mid-size city show a high rate of success when compared with other techniques. The most important features of this methodology are the need for few data and the simplicity of the algorithm, allowing for future scalability. © 2009 IEEE.

Determining spatial resolution in spatial load forecasting using a grid-based model

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Caracterização de escovas de grafite e avaliação do seu desempenho em função da microestrutura

The electric can be converted into thermal, luminous, electromagnetic, and also in mechanical energy. In this context the electric engines plays a fundamental role, specially that they work very below of its nominal capacity, with consequent decrease load density. In industrial environment, these characteristics of work of DC engines had also generated an extreme consumption of coal brushs and attack in the commutator reducing the useful life of the engine and increasing maintenance demand and cost. The general objective of the present work is to study the influence of the granulometry of the coal brush used in DC engines with the resistance to the consumption of the same ones, as well as in the performance presented by the commutator of the engine. Additionally, determining the measurable and not measurable profits when the brush used is adjusted to the application. The brushes had been produced by an industry of the sector and tested in industrial environment to evaluate their performance and consumption. Preliminary results evidence a substantial improvement in the performance of these brushes in function of its microstructure and the application in which it is used

Istmo Centroamericano: la regulación de la distribución de energía eléctrica en los países con empresas privadas. Los casos de El Salvador, Guatemala, Nicaragua y Panamá

Incluye Bibliografía

Previsão espacial da densidade de carga nos sistemas de distribuição de energia elétrica considerando a geometria fractal da zona urbana

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Sistema de protección contra incendios de un parque de almacenamiento de líquidos petrolíferos

Los procesos relacionados con el almacenamiento y manipulación de productos petrolíferos, conllevan siempre determinados riesgos de incendio que dependen básicamente de las propiedades físicas y químicas de los productos, y hacen indispensable la adopción de importantes medidas de seguridad contra incendios. Esto es debido a que las consecuencias previsibles en caso de la producción y expansión del incendio son tan graves que aconsejan la instalación de medios más potentes de lucha contra incendios, que los simples extintores manuales. En base a ello, el presente proyecto pretende definir y desarrollar una propuesta de diseño del sistema de protección contra incendios en la zona de almacenamiento de una planta de almacenamiento de líquidos petrolíferos. La planta almacena Gasóleo, Gasolina y Queroseno de Aviación en ocho tanques atmosféricos de techo fijo situados en un único cubeto de retención. Se desarrolla un extenso estudio de los requisitos normativos para este tipo de casos, y en consecuencia, se calcula y clasifica el nivel de riesgo intrínseco de incendio en la zona estudiada, a partir de su carga de fuego ponderada y corregida. Además, se muestra la distribución de los tanques en el cubeto, basada en el cálculo de las distancias de seguridad entre cada uno de ellos y con el exterior. A partir de ello, el proyecto se centra en el cálculo de los valores de descarga de agua de refrigeración, requeridos en las boquillas de agua pulverizada e hidrantes exteriores de alrededor de la zona de riesgo; de espuma física para hidrocarburos, en las cámaras de espuma de la parte superior de la envolvente de los tanques, y en los monitores auxiliares de descarga de espuma, de la zona del cubeto de retención. Los objetivos, métodos y bases de cálculo se recogen en la memoria del proyecto. Además se incluye, la planificación temporal con MS Project, de la implementación del proyecto; la elección de los equipos que componen los sistemas, el presupuesto asociado y los planos de distribución de la planta y del flujo de tuberías propuesto. ABSTRACT Fire protection units and equipment are necessary on processes and operations related to storage and handling of petroleum products, because of their flammable and combustible properties. In case a hazard of fire from petroleum products is materialized, huge consequences are to be expected. To reduce losses, facilities should be equipped with appropriate protection. Based on that, this project seeks to define and develop the fire protection system design for a petroleum liquids storage installation. The plant stores Gasoil, Gasoline, and aviation Kerosene in eight fixed roof atmospheric tanks. A complete study of the fire protection regulations is carried out and, as a result, the studied area’s risk level is determined from its fire load density. The calculation of the minimum shell-to-shell spacing of adjacent aboveground storage tanks and external equipment, is also determined for a correct distribution of tanks in the bunded area. Assuming that, the design includes calculations of required discharge of water for spray nozzles and hydrants, and required discharge of foam from foam chambers and foam monitors. Objectives, methodology and calculation basis are presented on the project technical report; which also includes project scheduling with MS. Project software, the selection of system components and equipment, related budget and lay out of installation and piping.

Uncertainties in annual riverine phosphorus load estimation: Impact of load estimation methodology, sampling frequency, baseflow index and catchment population density

Models developed to identify the rates and origins of nutrient export from land to stream require an accurate assessment of the nutrient load present in the water body in order to calibrate model parameters and structure. These data are rarely available at a representative scale and in an appropriate chemical form except in research catchments. Observational errors associated with nutrient load estimates based on these data lead to a high degree of uncertainty in modelling and nutrient budgeting studies. Here, daily paired instantaneous P and flow data for 17 UK research catchments covering a total of 39 water years (WY) have been used to explore the nature and extent of the observational error associated with nutrient flux estimates based on partial fractions and infrequent sampling. The daily records were artificially decimated to create 7 stratified sampling records, 7 weekly records, and 30 monthly records from each WY and catchment. These were used to evaluate the impact of sampling frequency on load estimate uncertainty. The analysis underlines the high uncertainty of load estimates based on monthly data and individual P fractions rather than total P. Catchments with a high baseflow index and/or low population density were found to return a lower RMSE on load estimates when sampled infrequently than those with a tow baseflow index and high population density. Catchment size was not shown to be important, though a limitation of this study is that daily records may fail to capture the full range of P export behaviour in smaller catchments with flashy hydrographs, leading to an underestimate of uncertainty in Load estimates for such catchments. Further analysis of sub-daily records is needed to investigate this fully. Here, recommendations are given on load estimation methodologies for different catchment types sampled at different frequencies, and the ways in which this analysis can be used to identify observational error and uncertainty for model calibration and nutrient budgeting studies. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Intensified peginterferon α-2a dosing increases sustained virologic response rates in heavy, high viral load hepatitis c genotype 1 patients with high low-density lipoprotein

BACKGROUND AND GOAL: Patients infected with hepatitis C virus (HCV) with elevated low-density lipoprotein (LDL) levels achieve higher sustained virologic response (SVR) rates after peginterferon (PegIFN)/ribavirin treatment versus patients with lower LDL. Our aim was to determine whether SVR rates in patients with low/elevated LDL can be improved by dose intensification. STUDY: In PROGRESS, genotype 1 patients with baseline HCV RNA≥400,000 IU/mL and body weight ≥85 kg were randomized to 48 weeks of 180 μg/wk PegIFN α-2a (40 kDa) plus ribavirin (A: 1200 mg/d; B: 1400/1600 mg/d) or 12 weeks of 360 μg/wk PegIFN α-2a followed by 36 weeks of 180 μg/wk, plus ribavirin (C: 1200 mg/d; D: 1400/1600 mg/d). This retrospective analysis assessed SVR rates among patients with low (<100 mg/dL) or elevated (≥100 mg/dL) LDL. Patients with high LDL (n=256) had higher baseline HCV RNA (5.86×10 IU/mL) versus patients with low LDL (n=262; 4.02×10 IU/mL; P=0.0003). RESULTS: Multiple logistic regression analysis identified a significant interaction between PegIFN α-2a dose and LDL levels on SVR (P=0.0193). The only treatment-related SVR predictor in the nested multiple logistic regression was PegIFN α-2a dose among patients with elevated LDL (P=0.0074); therefore, data from the standard (A+B) and induction (C+D) dose arms were pooled. Among patients with low LDL, SVR rates were 40% and 35% in the standard and induction-dose groups, respectively; SVR rates in patients with high LDL were 44% and 60% (P=0.014), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Intensified dosing of PegIFN α-2a increases SVR rates in patients with elevated LDL even with the difficult-to-cure characteristics of genotype 1, high baseline viral load, and high body weight. Copyright © 2013 by Lippincott Williams & Wilkins.

Prevalence, Incidence Density, and Genotype Distribution of GB Virus C Infection in a Cohort of Recently HIV-1-Infected Subjects in Sao Paulo, Brazil

Background: The results of previous studies elsewhere have indicated that GB virus C (GBV-C) infection is frequent in patients infected with the human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) due to similar transmission routes of both viruses. The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence, incidence density and genotypic characteristics of GBV-C in this population. Methodology/Principal Findings: The study population included 233 patients from a cohort primarily comprised of homosexual men recently infected with HIV-1 in Sao Paulo, Brazil. The presence of GBV-C RNA was determined in plasma samples by reverse transcriptase-nested polymerase chain reaction and quantified by real-time PCR. GBV-C genotypes were determined by direct sequencing. HIV viral load, CD4+ T lymphocyte and CD8+ T lymphocyte count were also tested in all patients. The overall prevalence of GBV-C infection was 0.23 (95% CI: 0.18 to 0.29) in the study group. There was no significant difference between patients with and without GBV-C infection and Glycoprotein E2 antibody presence regarding age, sex, HIV-1 viral load, CD4+ and CD8+ T cell counts and treatment with antiretroviral drugs. An inverse correlation was observed between GBV-C and HIV-1 loads at enrollment and after one year. Also, a positive but not significant correlation was observed between GBV-C load and CD4+ T lymphocyte. Phylogenetic analysis of the GBV-C isolates revealed the presence of genotype 1 and genotype 2, these sub classified into subtype 2a and 2b. Conclusion/Significance: GBV-C infection is common in recently HIV -1 infected patients in Sao Paulo, Brazil and the predominant genotype is 2b. This study provides the first report of the GBV-C prevalence at the time of diagnosis of HIV-1 and the incidence density of GBV-C infection in one year.

Bone mineral density of rat femurs after hindlimb unloading and different physical rehabilitation programs

Bone weakening can occur due to the absence of load on the skeleton or even short periods of decreased physical activity. Therefore, musculoskeletal diseases that involve temporary immobilization by casts, inactivity or tension increases the risk of fractures. Physical activity is the most studied procedure both to prevent damage and to restore bone structure. The present study aimed at evaluating, by bone densitometry on rat femurs, the influence of hindlimb unloading and later running activity on treadmill or free movement. Sixty-four Wistar rats were used, aged 65 days with a mean corporal mass of 316.11g, randomly divided into eight experimental groups: group 1, the suspended control with seven animals under hindlimb unloading regimen for 28 days, then euthanized; groups 2 and 3, the trained suspended comprising of 7 and five animals, respectively, subjected to hindlimb unloading for 28 days, followed by treadmill exercise for 28 days (group 2) or 56 days (group 3), then euthanized; groups 4 and 5, designated free suspended, comprised of 7 animals each under hindlimb unloading regimen for 28 days followed by free activity in cages for 28 days (group 4) or 56 days (group 5), then euthanized; groups 6, 7 and 8, negative controls, each with 8 animals allowed to free activity in cages and euthanized at the ages of 93, 121 and 149 days, respectively. Bone mineral density (BMD) of the left femur was analyzed by bone densitometry. Unloading by tail-suspension decreased BMD while treadmill training and free activity in cages promoted its recovery in a similar way and over time.

Coherent structures in open channel flows with bed load transport over an hydraulically rough bed

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Civil – Perfil de Estruturas

Comparing different methods to measure biofilm thickness: the techniques are: optical coherence tomography, confocal laser scanning microscopy and low load compression test

Dissertação de mestrado integrado em Engenharia Biomédica (área de especialização em Engenharia Clínica)

Low estimates of dietary acid load are positively associated with bone ultrasound in women older than 75 years of age with a lifetime fracture

Dietary acid load from Western diets may be a risk factor for osteoporosis. It can be estimated by net endogenous acid production (NEAP). No data currently exists for NEAP estimates and bone indices in the very elderly (i.e. > or = 75 y). The aim of this study was to determine the association between NEAP estimates by using the potential renal acid load (PRAL) equation and quantitative bone ultrasound (QUS) measurements at the heel [broadband ultrasound attenuation (BUA)] in Caucasian women. We assessed NEAP and QUS in 401 very elderly Swiss ambulatory women. We evaluated dietary intake and NEAP estimates with a validated FFQ. QUS was measured using Achilles (Lunar). We identified 2 subgroups: 256 women (80.6 y +/- 3; BUA, 96.8 dB/MHz) with a fracture history and the remaining 145 (79.9 y SD 2.9; BUA, 101.7 dB/MHz) without. Women who reported having suffered a fracture had lower BUA (P < 0.001) than nonfractured women but did not differ in nutrient intakes and NEAP. Lower NEAP (P = 0.023) and higher potassium intake (P = 0.033) were correlated with higher BUA, which remained significant even after adjustment for age, BMI, and osteoporosis treatment. BUA was positively correlated with calcium (P = 0.016) and BMI (P < 0.001). Women who reported no fractures had no significant correlations between nutrient intake, NEAP, and BUA. Low nutritional acid load was correlated with higher BUA in very elderly women with a fracture history. Although relatively weak compared with age and BMI, this association was significant and may be an important additional risk factor that might be particularly relevant in frail patients with an already high fracture risk.

PTH and 1.25 vitamin D response to a low-calcium diet is associated with bone mineral density in renal stone formers.

BACKGROUND: Renal calcium stones and hypercalciuria are associated with a reduced bone mineral density (BMD). Therefore, the effect of changes in calcium homeostasis is of interest for both stones and bones. We hypothesized that the response of calciuria, parathyroid hormone (PTH) and 1.25 vitamin D to changes in dietary calcium might be related to BMD. METHODS: A single-centre prospective interventional study of 94 hyper- and non-hypercalciuric calcium stone formers consecutively retrieved from our stone clinic. The patients were investigated on a free-choice diet, a low-calcium diet, while fasting and after an oral calcium load. Patient groups were defined according to lumbar BMD (z-score) obtained by dual X-ray absorptiometry (group 1: z-score <-0.5, n = 30; group 2: z-score -0.5-0.5, n = 36; group 3: z-score >0.5, n = 28). The effect of the dietary interventions on calciuria, 1.25 vitamin D and PTH in relation to BMD was measured. RESULTS: An inverse relationship between BMD and calciuria was observed on all four calcium intakes (P = 0.009). On a free-choice diet, 1.25 vitamin D and PTH levels were identical in the three patient groups. However, the relative responses of 1.25 vitamin D and PTH to the low-calcium diet were opposite in the three groups with the highest increase of 1.25 vitamin D in group 1 and the lowest in group 3, whereas PTH increase was most pronounced in group 3 and least in group 1. CONCLUSION: Calcium stone formers with a low lumbar BMD exhibit a blunted response of PTH release and an apparently overshooting production of 1.25 vitamin D following a low-calcium diet.

Soil compaction and eucalyptus growth in response to forwarder traffic intensity and load

During timber exploitation in forest stands harvesting machines pass repeatedly along the same track and can cause soil compaction, which leads to soil erosion and restricted tree root growth. The level of soil compaction depends on the number of passes and weight of the wood load. This paper aimed to evaluate soil compaction and eucalyptus growth as affected by the number of passes and wood load of a forwarder. The study was carried out in Santa Maria de Itabira county, Minas Gerais State - Brazil, on a seven-year-old eucalyptus stand planted on an Oxisol. The trees were felled by chainsaw and manually removed. Plots of 144 m² (four rows 12 m long in a 3 x 2 m spacing) were then marked off for the conduction of two trials. The first tested the traffic intensity of a forwarder which weighed 11,900 kg and carried 12 m³ wood (density of 480 kg m-3) and passed 2, 4, and 8 times along the same track. In the second trial, the forwarder carried loads of 4, 8, and 12 m³ of wood, and the machine was driven four times along the same track. In each plot, the passes affected four rows. Eucalyptus was planted in 30 x 30 x 30 cm holes on the compacted tracks. The soil in the area is clayey (470 clay and 440 g kg-1 sand content) and at depths of 0-5 cm and 5-10 cm, respectively, soil organic carbon was 406 and 272 g kg-1 and the moisture content during the trial 248 and 249 g kg-1. These layers were assessed for soil bulk density and water-stable aggregates. The infiltration rate was measured by a cylinder infiltrometer. After 441 days the measurements were repeated, with additional analyses of: soil organic carbon, total nitrogen, N-NH4+, N-NO3-, porosity, and penetration resistance. Tree height, stem diameter, and stem dry matter were measured. Forwarder traffic increased soil compaction, resistance to penetration and microporosity while it reduced the geometric mean diameter, total porosity, macroporosity and infiltration rate. Stem dry matter yield and tree height were not affected by soil compaction. Two passes of the forwarder were enough to cause the disturbances at the highest levels. The compaction effects were still persistent 441 days after forwarder traffic.