Definition of MV Load Diagrams via Weighted Evidence Accumulation Clustering using Subsampling

A definition of medium voltage (MV) load diagrams was made, based on the data base knowledge discovery process. Clustering techniques were used as support for the agents of the electric power retail markets to obtain specific knowledge of their customers’ consumption habits. Each customer class resulting from the clustering operation is represented by its load diagram. The Two-step clustering algorithm and the WEACS approach based on evidence accumulation (EAC) were applied to an electricity consumption data from a utility client’s database in order to form the customer’s classes and to find a set of representative consumption patterns. The WEACS approach is a clustering ensemble combination approach that uses subsampling and that weights differently the partitions in the co-association matrix. As a complementary step to the WEACS approach, all the final data partitions produced by the different variations of the method are combined and the Ward Link algorithm is used to obtain the final data partition. Experiment results showed that WEACS approach led to better accuracy than many other clustering approaches. In this paper the WEACS approach separates better the customer’s population than Two-step clustering algorithm.

Knowledge extraction from medium voltage load diagrams to support the definition of electrical tariffs

With the electricity market liberalization, distribution and retail companies are looking for better market strategies based on adequate information upon the consumption patterns of its electricity customers. In this environment all consumers are free to choose their electricity supplier. A fair insight on the customer´s behaviour will permit the definition of specific contract aspects based on the different consumption patterns. In this paper Data Mining (DM) techniques are applied to electricity consumption data from a utility client’s database. To form the different customer´s classes, and find a set of representative consumption patterns, we have used the Two-Step algorithm which is a hierarchical clustering algorithm. Each consumer class will be represented by its load profile resulting from the clustering operation. Next, to characterize each consumer class a classification model will be constructed with the C5.0 classification algorithm.

Agentes comerciais: modelos de avaliação de risco e rentabilidade

Dissertação para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Electrotécnica na Área de Especialização de Energia

Estudo de uma central hidroeléctrica com base em turbina hidráulica reversível

Trabalho Final de Mestrado para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Mecânica

Previsão do Diagrama de Carga de Subestações da REN utilizando Redes Neuronais

A presente dissertação apresenta o estudo de previsão do diagrama de carga de subestações da Rede Elétrica Nacional (REN) utilizando redes neuronais, com o intuito de verificar a viabilidade do método utilizado, em estudos futuros. Atualmente, a energia elétrica é um bem essencial e desempenha um papel fundamental, tanto a nível económico do país, como a nível de conforto e satisfação individual. Com o desenvolvimento do setor elétrico e o aumento dos produtores torna-se importante a realização da previsão de diagramas de carga, contribuindo para a eficiência das empresas. Esta dissertação tem como objetivo a utilização do modelo das redes neuronais artificiais (RNA) para criar uma rede capaz de realizar a previsão de diagramas de carga, com a finalidade de oferecer a possibilidade de redução de custos e gastos, e a melhoria de qualidade e fiabilidade. Ao longo do trabalho são utilizados dados da carga (em MW), obtidos da REN, da subestação da Prelada e dados como a temperatura, humidade, vento e luminosidade, entre outros. Os dados foram devidamente tratados com a ajuda do software Excel. Com o software MATLAB são realizados treinos com redes neuronais, através da ferramenta Neural Network Fitting Tool, com o objetivo de obter uma rede que forneça os melhores resultados e posteriormente utiliza-la na previsão de novos dados. No processo de previsão, utilizando dados reais das subestações da Prelada e Ermesinde referentes a Março de 2015, comprova-se que com a utilização de RNA é possível obter dados de previsão credíveis, apesar de não ser uma previsão exata. Deste modo, no que diz respeito à previsão de diagramas de carga, as RNA são um bom método a utilizar, uma vez que fornecem, à parte interessada, uma boa previsão do consumo e comportamento das cargas elétricas. Com a finalização deste estudo os resultados obtidos são no mínimo satisfatórios. Consegue-se alcançar através das RNA resultados próximos aos valores que eram esperados, embora não exatamente iguais devido à existência de uma margem de erro na aprendizagem da rede neuronal.

Nonlinear Dynamics and Control of an Ideal/Nonideal Load Transportation System With Periodic Coefficients

In this paper, a loads transportation system in platforms or suspended by cables is considered. It is a monorail device and is modeled as an inverted pendulum built on a car driven by a dc motor the governing equations of motion were derived via Lagrange's equations. In the mathematical model we consider the interaction between the dc motor and the dynamical system, that is, we have a so called nonideal periodic problem. The problem is analyzed, qualitatively, through the comparison of the stability diagrams, numerically obtained, for several motor torque constants. Furthermore, we also analyze the problem quantitatively using the Floquet multipliers technique. Finally, we devise a control for the studied nonideal problem. The method that was used for analysis and control of this nonideal periodic system is based on the Chebyshev polynomial exponsion, the Picard iterative method, and the Lyapunov-Floquet transformation (L-F transformation). We call it Sinha's theory.

Shear behavior of reinforced concrete slabs under concentrated load: an investigation through Sequentially Linear Analysis

ABSTRACT (italiano) Con crescente attenzione riguardo al problema della sicurezza di ponti e viadotti esistenti nei Paesi Bassi, lo scopo della presente tesi è quello di studiare, mediante la modellazione con Elementi Finiti ed il continuo confronto con risultati sperimentali, la risposta in esercizio di elementi che compongono infrastrutture del genere, ovvero lastre in calcestruzzo armato sollecitate da carichi concentrati. Tali elementi sono caratterizzati da un comportamento ed una crisi per taglio, la cui modellazione è, da un punto di vista computazionale, una sfida piuttosto ardua, a causa del loro comportamento fragile combinato a vari effetti tridimensionali. La tesi è incentrata sull'utilizzo della Sequentially Linear Analysis (SLA), un metodo di soluzione agli Elementi Finiti alternativo rispetto ai classici approcci incrementali e iterativi. Il vantaggio della SLA è quello di evitare i ben noti problemi di convergenza tipici delle analisi non lineari, specificando direttamente l'incremento di danno sull'elemento finito, attraverso la riduzione di rigidezze e resistenze nel particolare elemento finito, invece dell'incremento di carico o di spostamento. Il confronto tra i risultati di due prove di laboratorio su lastre in calcestruzzo armato e quelli della SLA ha dimostrato in entrambi i casi la robustezza del metodo, in termini di accuratezza dei diagrammi carico-spostamento, di distribuzione di tensioni e deformazioni e di rappresentazione del quadro fessurativo e dei meccanismi di crisi per taglio. Diverse variazioni dei più importanti parametri del modello sono state eseguite, evidenziando la forte incidenza sulle soluzioni dell'energia di frattura e del modello scelto per la riduzione del modulo elastico trasversale. Infine è stato effettuato un paragone tra la SLA ed il metodo non lineare di Newton-Raphson, il quale mostra la maggiore affidabilità della SLA nella valutazione di carichi e spostamenti ultimi insieme ad una significativa riduzione dei tempi computazionali. ABSTRACT (english) With increasing attention to the assessment of safety in existing dutch bridges and viaducts, the aim of the present thesis is to study, through the Finite Element modeling method and the continuous comparison with experimental results, the real response of elements that compose these infrastructures, i.e. reinforced concrete slabs subjected to concentrated loads. These elements are characterized by shear behavior and crisis, whose modeling is, from a computational point of view, a hard challenge, due to their brittle behavior combined with various 3D effects. The thesis is focused on the use of Sequentially Linear Analysis (SLA), an alternative solution technique to classical non linear Finite Element analyses that are based on incremental and iterative approaches. The advantage of SLA is to avoid the well-known convergence problems of non linear analyses by directly specifying a damage increment, in terms of a reduction of stiffness and strength in the particular finite element, instead of a load or displacement increment. The comparison between the results of two laboratory tests on reinforced concrete slabs and those obtained by SLA has shown in both the cases the robustness of the method, in terms of accuracy of load-displacements diagrams, of the distribution of stress and strain and of the representation of the cracking pattern and of the shear failure mechanisms. Different variations of the most important parameters have been performed, pointing out the strong incidence on the solutions of the fracture energy and of the chosen shear retention model. At last a confrontation between SLA and the non linear Newton-Raphson method has been executed, showing the better reliability of the SLA in the evaluation of the ultimate loads and displacements, together with a significant reduction of computational times.

Effect of cyclic load on vertical misfit of prefabricated and cast implant single abutment

OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this in vitro study was to evaluate misfit alterations at the implant/abutment interface of external and internal connection implant systems when subjected to cyclic loading. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Standard metal crowns were fabricated for 5 groups (n=10) of implant/abutment assemblies: Group 1, external hexagon implant and UCLA cast-on premachined abutment; Group 2, internal hexagon implant and premachined abutment; Group 3, internal octagon implant and prefabricated abutment; Group 4, external hexagon implant and UCLA cast-on premachined abutment; and Group 5, external hexagon implant and Ceraone abutment. For groups 1, 2, 3 and 5, the crowns were cemented on the abutments and in group 4 crowns were screwed directly on the implant. The specimens were subjected to 500,000 cycles at 19.1 Hz of frequency and non-axial load of 133 N in a MTS 810 machine. The vertical misfit (μm) at the implant/abutment interface was evaluated before (B) and after (A) application of the cyclic loading. Data were analyzed statistically by using two-away ANOVA and Tukey's post-hoc test (p<0.05). RESULTS: Before loading values showed no difference among groups 2 (4.33±3.13), 3 (4.79±3.43) and 5 (3.86±4.60); between groups 1 (12.88±6.43) and 4 (9.67±3.08), and among groups 2, 3 and 4. However, groups 1 and 4 were significantly different from groups 2, 3 and 5. After loading values of groups 1 (17.28±8.77) and 4 (17.78±10.99) were significantly different from those of groups 2 (4.83±4.50), 3 (8.07±4.31) and 5 (3.81±4.84). There was a significant increase in misfit values of groups 1, 3 and 4 after cyclic loading, but not for groups 2 and 5. CONCLUSIONS: The cyclic loading and type of implant/abutment connection may develop a role on the vertical misfit at the implant/abutment interface.

Load Ratio Estimation Through Striation Height and Spacing Analysis of an Aerospace Al Alloy 7475-T7351

It is well known that striation spacing may be related to the crack growth rate, da/dN, through Paris equation, as well as the maximum and minimum loads under service loading conditions. These loads define the load ratio, R, and are considered impossible to be evaluated from the inter-spacing striations analysis. In this way, this study discusses the methodology proposed by Furukawa to evaluate the maximum and minimum loads based on the experimental fact that the relative height of a striation, H, and the striation spacing, s, are strongly influenced by the load ratio, R. Fatigue tests in C(T) specimens were conducted on SAE 7475-T7351 Al alloy plates at room temperature and the results showed a straightforward correlation between the parameters H, s, and R. Measurements of striation height, H, were performed using scanning electron microscopy and field emission gun (FEG) after sectioning the specimen at a large inclined angle to amplify the height of the striations. The results showed that for increasing R the values of H/s tend to increase. Striation height, striation spacing, and load ratio correlations were obtained, which allows one to estimate service loadings from fatigue fracture surface survey.

The frequency of CD127(low) expressing CD4(+)CD25(high) T regulatory cells is inversely correlated with human T lymphotrophic virus type-1 (HTLV-1) proviral load in HTLV-1-infection and HTLV-1-associated myelopathy/tropical spastic paraparesis

Background: CD4(+)CD25(high) regulatory T (T(Reg)) cells modulate antigen-specific T cell responses, and can suppress anti-viral immunity. In HTLV-1 infection, a selective decrease in the function of T(Reg) cell mediated HTLV-1-tax inhibition of FOXP3 expression has been described. The purpose of this study was to assess the frequency and phenotype of T(Reg) cells in HTLV-1 asymptomatic carriers and in HTLV-1-associated neurological disease (HAM/TSP) patients, and to correlate with measures of T cell activation. Results: We were able to confirm that HTLV-1 drives activation, spontaneous IFN gamma production, and proliferation of CD4+ T cells. We also observed a significantly lower proportion of CTLA-4(+) T(Reg) cells (CD4(+)CD25(high) T cells) in subjects with HAM/TSP patients compared to healthy controls. Ki-67 expression was negatively correlated to the frequency of CTLA-4(+) T(Reg) cells in HAM/TSP only, although Ki-67 expression was inversely correlated with the percentage of CD127(low) T(Reg) cells in healthy control subjects. Finally, the proportion of CD127(low) T(Reg) cells correlated inversely with HTLV-1 proviral load. Conclusion: Taken together, the results suggest that T(Reg) cells may be subverted in HAM/TSP patients, which could explain the marked cellular activation, spontaneous cytokine production, and proliferation of CD4(+) T cells, in particular those expressing the CD25(high)CD127(low) phenotype. T(Reg) cells represent a potential target for therapeutic intervention for patients with HTLV-1-related neurological diseases.

Real-Time PCR in HIV/Trypanosoma cruzi Coinfection with and without Chagas Disease Reactivation: Association with HIV Viral Load and CD4(+) Level

Background: Reactivation of chronic Chagas disease, which occurs in approximately 20% of patients coinfected with HIV/Trypanosoma cruzi (T. cruzi), is commonly characterized by severe meningoencephalitis and myocarditis. The use of quantitative molecular tests to monitor Chagas disease reactivation was analyzed. Methodology: Polymerase chain reaction (PCR) of kDNA sequences, competitive (C-) PCR and real-time quantitative (q) PCR were compared with blood cultures and xenodiagnosis in samples from 91 patients (57 patients with chronic Chagas disease and 34 with HIV/T. cruzi coinfection), of whom 5 had reactivation of Chagas disease and 29 did not. Principal Findings: qRT-PCR showed significant differences between groups; the highest parasitemia was observed in patients infected with HIV/T. cruzi with Chagas disease reactivation (median 1428.90 T. cruzi/mL), followed by patients with HIV/T. cruzi infection without reactivation (median 1.57 T. cruzi/mL) and patients with Chagas disease without HIV (median 0.00 T. cruzi/mL). Spearman's correlation coefficient showed that xenodiagnosis was correlated with blood culture, C-PCR and qRT-PCR. A stronger Spearman correlation index was found between C-PCR and qRT-PCR, the number of parasites and the HIV viral load, expressed as the number of CD4(+) cells or the CD4(+)/CD8(+) ratio. Conclusions: qRT-PCR distinguished the groups of HIV/T. cruzi coinfected patients with and without reactivation. Therefore, this new method of qRT-PCR is proposed as a tool for prospective studies to analyze the importance of parasitemia (persistent and/or increased) as a criterion for recommending pre-emptive therapy in patients with chronic Chagas disease with HIV infection or immunosuppression. As seen in this study, an increase in HIV viral load and decreases in the number of CD4(+) cells/mm(3) and the CD4(+)/CD8(+) ratio were identified as cofactors for increased parasitemia that can be used to target the introduction of early, pre-emptive therapy.

High levels of T lymphocyte activation in Leishmania-HIV-1 co-infected individuals despite low HIV viral load

Background: Concomitant infections may influence HIV progression by causing chronic activation leading to decline in T-cell function. In the Americas, visceral (AVL) and tegumentary leishmaniasis (ATL) have emerged as important opportunistic infections in HIV-AIDS patients and both of those diseases have been implicated as potentially important co-factors in disease progression. We investigated whether leishmaniasis increases lymphocyte activation in HIV-1 co-infected patients. This might contribute to impaired cellular immune function. Methods: To address this issue we analyzed CD4(+) T absolute counts and the proportion of CD8(+) T cells expressing CD38 in Leishmania/HIV co-infected patients that recovered after anti-leishmanial therapy. Results: We found that, despite clinical remission of leishmaniasis, AVL co-infected patients presented a more severe immunossupression as suggested by CD4(+) T cell counts under 200 cells/mm(3), differing from ATL/HIV-AIDS cases that tends to show higher lymphocytes levels (over 350 cells/mm(3)). Furthermore, five out of nine, AVL/HIV-AIDS presented low CD4(+) T cell counts in spite of low or undetectable viral load. Expression of CD38 on CD8(+) T lymphocytes was significantly higher in AVL or ATL/HIV-AIDS cases compared to HIV/AIDS patients without leishmaniasis or healthy subjects. Conclusions: Leishmania infection can increase the degree of immune system activation in individuals concomitantly infected with HIV. In addition, AVL/HIV-AIDS patients can present low CD4(+) T cell counts and higher proportion of activated T lymphocytes even when HIV viral load is suppressed under HAART. This fact can cause a misinterpretation of these laboratorial markers in co-infected patients.

Detection of Human Bocavirus mRNA in Respiratory Secretions Correlates with High Viral Load and Concurrent Diarrhea

Human bocavirus (HBoV) is a parvovirus recently identified in association with acute respiratory infections (ARI). Despite its worldwide occurrence, little is known on the pathogenesis of HBoV infections. In addition, few systematic studies of HBoV in ARI have been conducted in Latin America. Therefore, in order to test whether active viral replication of human bocavirus is associated with respiratory diseases and to understand the clinical impact of this virus in patients with these diseases, we performed a 3-year retrospective hospital-based study of HBoV in outpatients and inpatients with symptoms of Acute Respiratory Infections (ARI) in Brazil. Nasopharyngeal aspirates (NPAs) from 1015 patients with respiratory symptoms were tested for HBoV DNA by PCR. All samples positive for HBoV were tested by PCR for all other respiratory viruses, had HBoV viral loads determined by quantitative real time PCR and, when possible, were tested by RT-PCR for HBoV VP1 mRNA, as evidence of active viral replication. HBoV was detected in 4.8% of patients, with annual rates of 10.0%, 3.0% and 3.0% in 2005, 2006 and 2007, respectively. The range of respiratory symptoms was similar between HBoV-positive and HBoV-negative ARI patients. However, a higher rate of diarrhea was observed in HBoV-positive patients. High HBoV viral loads (> 10(8) copies/mL) and diarrhea were significantly more frequent in patients with exclusive infection by HBoV and in patients with detection of HBoV VP1 mRNA than in patients with viral co-infection, detected in 72.9% of patients with HBoV. In summary, our data demonstrated that active HBoV replication was detected in a small percentage of patients with ARI and was correlated with concurrent diarrhea and lack of other viral co-infections.

Impact of Manaus City on the Amazon Green Ocean atmosphere: ozone production, precursor sensitivity and aerosol load

As a contribution to the Large-Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia - Cooperative LBA Airborne Regional Experiment (LBA-CLAIRE-2001) field campaign in the heart of the Amazon Basin, we analyzed the temporal and spatial dynamics of the urban plume of Manaus City during the wet-to-dry season transition period in July 2001. During the flights, we performed vertical stacks of crosswind transects in the urban outflow downwind of Manaus City, measuring a comprehensive set of trace constituents including O(3), NO, NO(2), CO, VOC, CO(2), and H(2)O. Aerosol loads were characterized by concentrations of total aerosol number (CN) and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), and by light scattering properties. Measurements over pristine rainforest areas during the campaign showed low levels of pollution from biomass burning or industrial emissions, representative of wet season background conditions. The urban plume of Manaus City was found to be joined by plumes from power plants south of the city, all showing evidence of very strong photochemical ozone formation. One episode is discussed in detail, where a threefold increase in ozone mixing ratios within the atmospheric boundary layer occurred within a 100 km travel distance downwind of Manaus. Observation-based estimates of the ozone production rates in the plume reached 15 ppb h(-1). Within the plume core, aerosol concentrations were strongly enhanced, with Delta CN/Delta CO ratios about one order of magnitude higher than observed in Amazon biomass burning plumes. Delta CN/Delta CO ratios tended to decrease with increasing transport time, indicative of a significant reduction in particle number by coagulation, and without substantial new particle nucleation occurring within the time/space observed. While in the background atmosphere a large fraction of the total particle number served as CCN (about 60-80% at 0.6% supersaturation), the CCN/CN ratios within the plume indicated that only a small fraction (16 +/- 12 %) of the plume particles were CCN. The fresh plume aerosols showed relatively weak light scattering efficiency. The CO-normalized CCN concentrations and light scattering coefficients increased with plume age in most cases, suggesting particle growth by condensation of soluble organic or inorganic species. We used a Single Column Chemistry and Transport Model (SCM) to infer the urban pollution emission fluxes of Manaus City, implying observed mixing ratios of CO, NO(x) and VOC. The model can reproduce the temporal/spatial distribution of ozone enhancements in the Manaus plume, both with and without accounting for the distinct (high NO(x)) contribution by the power plants; this way examining the sensitivity of ozone production to changes in the emission rates of NO(x). The VOC reactivity in the Manaus region was dominated by a high burden of biogenic isoprene from the background rainforest atmosphere, and therefore NO(x) control is assumed to be the most effective ozone abatement strategy. Both observations and models show that the agglomeration of NO(x) emission sources, like power plants, in a well-arranged area can decrease the ozone production efficiency in the near field of the urban populated cores. But on the other hand remote areas downwind of the city then bear the brunt, being exposed to increased ozone production and N-deposition. The simulated maximum stomatal ozone uptake fluxes were 4 nmol m(-2) s(-1) close to Manaus, and decreased only to about 2 nmol m(-2) s(-1) within a travel distance >1500 km downwind from Manaus, clearly exceeding the critical threshold level for broadleaf trees. Likewise, the simulated N deposition close to Manaus was similar to 70 kg N ha(-1) a(-1) decreasing only to about 30 kg N ha(-1) a(-1) after three days of simulation.

Intra and interannual variability in the Madeira River water chemistry and sediment load

Concentrations of cations (Na(+), Ca(2+), Mg(2+), K(+), NH(4) (+)), anions (HCO(3) (-), Cl(-), NO(3) (-), SO(4) (2-), PO(4) (3-)) and suspended sediments in the Madeira River water were determined near the city of Porto Velho (RO), in order to assess variation in water chemistry from 2004 to 2007. Calcium and bicarbonate were the dominant cation and anion, respectively. Significant seasonal differences were found, with highest concentrations occurring during the dry season, as expected from the drainage of Andean carbonate-rich substratum. Interannual variations were also observed, but became significant only when annual average discharge was 25% less than normal. Under this atypical discharge condition, bicarbonate was replaced by sulfate, and higher suspended sediment concentrations and loads were also observed. Compared to previously published studies, it appears that no significant changes in water chemistry have occurred during the last 20-30 years, although differences in approaches and sampling designs among this and previous studies may not allow detection of modest changes. The calculated suspended sediment load reported here is close to the values presented elsewhere, reinforcing the relative importance of this river as a sediment supplier for the Amazon Basin. Seasonality has a significant control on the chemistry of Madeira River waters, and severe decrease in discharge due to anthropogenic changes, such as construction of reservoirs or the occurrence of drier years-a plausible consequence of global climate change-may lead to modification in the chemical composition as well in the sediment deliver to the Amazon River.