Isolating the impacts of land use and climate change on streamflow

Quantifying the isolated and integrated impacts of land use (LU) and climate change on streamflow is challenging as well as crucial to optimally manage water resources in river basins. This paper presents a simple hydrologic modeling-based approach to segregate the impacts of land use and climate change on the streamflow of a river basin. The upper Ganga basin (UGB) in India is selected as the case study to carry out the analysis. Streamflow in the river basin is modeled using a calibrated variable infiltration capacity (VIC) hydrologic model. The approach involves development of three scenarios to understand the influence of land use and climate on streamflow. The first scenario assesses the sensitivity of streamflow to land use changes under invariant climate. The second scenario determines the change in streamflow due to change in climate assuming constant land use. The third scenario estimates the combined effect of changing land use and climate over the streamflow of the basin. Based on the results obtained from the three scenarios, quantification of isolated impacts of land use and climate change on streamflow is addressed. Future projections of climate are obtained from dynamically downscaled simulations of six general circulation models (GCMs) available from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) project. Uncertainties associated with the GCMs and emission scenarios are quantified in the analysis. Results for the case study indicate that streamflow is highly sensitive to change in urban areas and moderately sensitive to change in cropland areas. However, variations in streamflow generally reproduce the variations in precipitation. The combined effect of land use and climate on streamflow is observed to be more pronounced compared to their individual impacts in the basin. It is observed from the isolated effects of land use and climate change that climate has a more dominant impact on streamflow in the region. The approach proposed in this paper is applicable to any river basin to isolate the impacts of land use change and climate change on the streamflow.

Land Use and Climate Change Impacts on the Hydrology of the Upper Mara River Basin, Kenya: Results of a Modeling Study to Support Better Resource Management

Some of the most valued natural and cultural landscapes on Earth lie in river basins that are poorly gauged and have incomplete historical climate and runoff records. The Mara River Basin of East Africa is such a basin. It hosts the internationally renowned Mara-Serengeti landscape as well as a rich mixture of indigenous cultures. The Mara River is the sole source of surface water to the landscape during the dry season and periods of drought. During recent years, the flow of the Mara River has become increasingly erratic, especially in the upper reaches, and resource managers are hampered by a lack of understanding of the relative influence of different sources of flow alteration. Uncertainties about the impacts of future climate change compound the challenges. We applied the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to investigate the response of the headwater hydrology of the Mara River to scenarios of continued land use change and projected climate change. Under the data-scarce conditions of the basin, model performance was improved using satellite-based estimated rainfall data, which may also improve the usefulness of runoff models in other parts of East Africa. The results of the analysis indicate that any further conversion of forests to agriculture and grassland in the basin headwaters is likely to reduce dry season flows and increase peak flows, leading to greater water scarcity at critical times of the year and exacerbating erosion on hillslopes. Most climate change projections for the region call for modest and seasonally variable increases in precipitation (5–10 %) accompanied by increases in temperature (2.5–3.5 °C). Simulated runoff responses to climate change scenarios were non-linear and suggest the basin is highly vulnerable under low (−3 %) and high (+25 %) extremes of projected precipitation changes, but under median projections (+7 %) there is little impact on annual water yields or mean discharge. Modest increases in precipitation are partitioned largely to increased evapotranspiration. Overall, model results support the existing efforts of Mara water resource managers to protect headwater forests and indicate that additional emphasis should be placed on improving land management practices that enhance infiltration and aquifer recharge as part of a wider program of climate change adaptation.

A 1300-year multi-proxy, high-resolution record from a rich fen in northern Poland:Reconstructing hydrology, land use and climate change

Here we present the first high-resolution multi-proxy analysis of a rich fen in the central-eastern European lowlands. The fen is located in the young glacial landscape of the Sta{ogonek}zki river valley. We investigated the fen's development pathways, asking three main questions: (i) what was the pattern and timing of the peatland's vegetation succession, (ii) how did land use and climate affect the succession in the fen ecosystem, and (iii) to what degree does the reconstructed hydrology for this site correlate with those of other sites in the region in terms of past climate change? Several stages of fen history were determined, beginning with the lake-to-fen transition ca. AD 700. Brown mosses dominated the sampling site from this period to the present. No human impact was found to have occurred until ca. AD 1700, when the first forest cutting began. Around AD 1890 a more significant disturbance took place-this date marks the clear cutting of forests and dramatic landscape openness. Deforestation changed the hydrology and chemistry of the mire, which was revealed by a shift in local plant and testate amoebae communities. We also compared a potential climatic signal recorded in the peat profile before AD 1700 with other sites from the region. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Land use and climate change impacts on soil organic carbon stocks in semi-arid Spain

Purpose The sensitivity of soil organic carbon to global change drivers, according to the depth profile, is receiving increasing attention because of its importance in the global carbon cycle and its potential feedback to climate change. A better knowledge of the vertical distribution of SOC and its controlling factors—the aim of this study—will help scientists predict the consequences of global change. Materials and methods The study area was the Murcia Province (S.E. Spain) under semiarid Mediterranean conditions. The database used consists of 312 soil profiles collected in a systematic grid, each 12 km2 covering a total area of 11,004 km2. Statistical analysis to study the relationships between SOC concentration and control factors in different soil use scenarios was conducted at fixed depths of 0–20, 20–40, 40–60, and 60–100 cm. Results and discussion SOC concentration in the top 40 cm ranged between 6.1 and 31.5 g kg−1, with significant differences according to land use, soil type and lithology, while below this depth, no differences were observed (SOC concentration 2.1–6.8 g kg−1). The ANOVA showed that land use was the most important factor controlling SOC concentration in the 0–40 cm depth. Significant differences were found in the relative importance of environmental and textural factors according to land use and soil depth. In forestland, mean annual precipitation and texture were the main predictors of SOC, while in cropland and shrubland, the main predictors were mean annual temperature and lithology. Total SOC stored in the top 1 m in the region was about 79 Tg with a low mean density of 7.18 kg Cm−3. The vertical distribution of SOC was shallower in forestland and deeper in cropland. A reduction in rainfall would lead to SOC decrease in forestland and shrubland, and an increase of mean annual temperature would adversely affect SOC in croplands and shrubland. With increasing depth, the relative importance of climatic factors decreases and texture becomes more important in controlling SOC in all land uses. Conclusions Due to climate change, impacts will be much greater in surface SOC, the strategies for C sequestration should be focused on subsoil sequestration, which was hindered in forestland due to bedrock limitations to soil depth. In these conditions, sequestration in cropland through appropriate management practices is recommended.

Shifting cultivation stability and change: Contrasting pathways of land use and livelihood change in Laos

Rural areas in Laos are experiencing a rapid transformation from traditional rice-based shifting cultivation systems to more permanent and diversified market-oriented cultivation systems. The consequences of these changes for local livelihoods are not well known. This study analyzes the impact of shifting cultivation change on the livelihood of rural people in six villages in three districts of northern and central Laos. Focus group discussions and household interview questionnaires were employed for data collection. The study reveals that the shifting cultivation of rice is still important in these communities, but it is being intensified as cash crops are introduced. Changes in shifting cultivation during the past ten years vary greatly between the communities studied. In the northern study sites, it is decreasing in areas with rubber expansion and increasing in areas with maize expansion, while it is stable in the central site, where sugarcane is an important cash crop. The impacts of land use change on livelihoods are also diverse. Cash crop producers hold more agricultural land than non-cash crop producers, and rubber and sugarcane producers have fewer rice shortages than non-producers. In the future, livelihood improvements in the central study site may be replicated in the northern sites, but this depends to a large extent on the economic and agricultural settings into which cash crops and other development opportunities are introduced. Moreover, the expansion of cash crops appears to counteract Lao policies aimed at replacing shifting cultivation areas with forests.

Modeling the Effect of Land Use and Climate Change Scenarios on the Water Flux of the Upper Mara River Flow, Kenya

Increasingly erratic flow in the upper reaches of the Mara River, has directed attention to land use change as the major cause of this problem. The semi-distributed hydrological model SWAT and Landsat imagery were utilized in order to 1) map existing land use practices, 2) determine the impacts of land use change on water flux; and 3) determine the impacts of climate change scenarios on the water flux of the upper Mara River. This study found that land use change scenarios resulted in more erratic discharge while climate change scenarios had a more predictable impact on the discharge and water balance components. The model results showed the flow was more sensitive to the rainfall changes than land use changes but land use changes reduce dry season flows which is a major problem in the basin. Deforestation increased the peak flows which translated to increased sediment loading in the Mara River.

A Modeling Approach to Determine the Impacts of Land Use and Climate Change Scenarios on the Water Flux of the Upper Mara River

With the flow of the Mara River becoming increasingly erratic especially in the upper reaches, attention has been directed to land use change as the major cause of this problem. The semi-distributed hydrological model Soil and Water Assessment Tool 5 (SWAT) and Landsat imagery were utilized in the upper Mara River Basin in order to 1) map existing field scale land use practices in order to determine their impact 2) determine the impacts of land use change on water flux; and 3) determine the impacts of rainfall (0%, ±10% and ±20%) and air temperature variations (0% and +5%) based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projections on the water flux of the 10 upper Mara River. This study found that the different scenarios impacted on the water balance components differently. Land use changes resulted in a slightly more erratic discharge while rainfall and air temperature changes had a more predictable impact on the discharge and water balance components. These findings demonstrate that the model results 15 show the flow was more sensitive to the rainfall changes than land use changes. It was also shown that land use changes can reduce dry season flow which is the most important problem in the basin. The model shows also deforestation in the Mau Forest increased the peak flows which can also lead to high sediment loading in the Mara River. The effect of the land use and climate change scenarios on the sediment and 20 water quality of the river needs a thorough understanding of the sediment transport processes in addition to observed sediment and water quality data for validation of modeling results.

Why have land use change models for the Amazon failed to capture the amount of deforestation over the last decade?

Land cover change in the Neotropics represents one of the major drivers of global environmental change. Several models have been proposed to explore future trajectories of land use and cover change, particularly in the Amazon. Despite the remarkable development of these tools, model results are still surrounded by uncertainties. None of the model projections available in the literature plausibly captured the overall trajectory of land use and cover change that has been observed in the Amazon over the last decade. In this context, this study aims to review and analyze the general structure of the land use models that have most recently been used to explore land use change in the Amazon, seeking to investigate methodological factors that could explain the divergence between the observed and projected rates, paying special attention to the land demand calculations. Based on this review, the primary limitations inherent to this type of model and the extent to which these limitations can affect the consistency of the projections will also be analyzed. Finally, we discuss potential drivers that could have influenced the recent dynamic of the land use system in the Amazon and produced the unforeseen land cover change trajectory observed in this period. In a complementary way, the primary challenges of the new generation of land use models for the Amazon are synthesized. (c) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Carbon sequestration associated to the land-use and land-cover changes in the forestry sector in Southern Brazil.

We studied the Paraíba do Sul river watershed , São Paulo state (PSWSP), Southeastern Brazil, in order to assess the land use and cover (LULC) and their implication s to the amount of carbon (C) stored in the forest cover between the years 1985 and 2015. Th e region covers a n area of 1,395,975 ha . We used images made by the Operational Land Imager (OLI) sensor (OLI/Landsat - 8) to produce mappings , and image segmentation techniques to produce vectors with homogeneous characteristics. The training samples and the samples used for classification and validation were collected from the segmented image. To quantify the C stocked in aboveground live biomass (AGLB) , we used an indirect method and applied literature - based reference values. The recovery of 205,690 ha of a secondary Native Forest (NF) after 1985 sequestered 9.7 Tg (Teragram) of C . Considering the whole NF area (455,232 ha), the amount of C accumulated al ong the whole watershed was 3 5 .5 Tg , and the whole Eucalyptus crop (EU) area (113,600 ha) sequester ed 4. 4 Tg of C. Thus, the total amount of C sequestered in the whole watershed (NF + EU) was 3 9 . 9 Tg of C or 1 45 . 6 Tg of CO 2 , and the NF areas were responsible for the large st C stock at the watershed (8 9 %). Therefore , the increase of the NF cover contribut es positively to the reduction of CO 2 concentration in the atmosphere, and Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD + ) may become one of the most promising compensation mechanisms for the farmers who increased forest cover at their farms.

Livelihood, land use and environment interactions in the highlands of East Africa

This study aims at improving understanding of the interactions of livelihoods and the environment focusing on both socio-economic and biodiversity implications of land use change in the context of population pressure, global and local markets, climate change, cultural and regional historical factors in the highlands of East Africa. The study is based on three components (1) two extensive livelihood surveys, one on Mt. Kilimanjaro in Tanzania and the other in the Taita Hills of Kenya, (2) a land use change study of the southern slopes of Mt. Kilimanjaro focusing on land use trends between 1960s and 1980s and 1980s and 2000 and (3) a bird diversity study focusing on the potential impacts of the future land use change on birds in the main land use types on the slopes and the adjacent plains of Mt. Kilimanjaro. In addition, information on the highlands in Embu and the adjacent lowlands in Mbeere of Kenya are added to the discussion. Some general patterns of livelihood, land use and environment interactions can be found in the three sites. However, the linkages are very complex. Various external factors at different times in history have influenced most of the major turning points. Farmers continually make small adaptations to their farming practices, but the locally conceived alternatives are too few. Farmers lack specific information and knowledge on the most suitable crops, market opportunities and the quality requirements for growing the crops for markets. Population growth emerges as the most forceful driver of land use and environmental change. The higher altitudes have become extremely crowded with population densities in some areas higher than typical urban population densities. Natural vegetation has almost totally been replaced by farmland. Decreasing farm size due to population pressure is currently threatening the viability of whole farming systems. In addition, capital-poor intensification has lead to soil fertility depletion. Agricultural expansion to the agriculturally marginal lowlands has created a new and distinct group of farmers struggling constantly with climate variability causing frequent crop failures. Extensification to the fragile drylands is the major cause of fragmentation and loss of wildlife habitat. The linkages between livelihoods, land use and the environment generally point to degradation of the environment leading to reduced environmental services and ecosystem functions. There is no indication that the system is self-regulating in this respect. Positive interventions will be needed to maintain ecosystem integrity.

Enfoque da estatística espacial em modelos dinâmicos de mudança do uso do solo.

O atual nível das mudanças uso do solo causa impactos nas mudanças ambientais globais. Os processos de mudanças do uso e cobertura do solo são processos complexos e não acontecem ao acaso sobre uma região. Geralmente estas mudanças são determinadas localmente, regionalmente ou globalmente por fatores geográficos, ambientais, sociais, econômicos e políticos interagindo em diversas escalas temporais e espaciais. Parte desta complexidade é capturada por modelos de simulação de mudanças do uso e cobertura do solo. Uma etapa do processo de simulação do modelo CLUE-S é a quantificação da influência local dos impulsores de mudança sobre a probabilidade de ocorrência de uma classe de uso do solo. Esta influência local é obtida ajustando um modelo de regressão logística. Um modelo de regressão espacial é proposto como alternativa para selecionar os impulsores de mudanças. Este modelo incorpora a informação da vizinhança espacial existente nos dados que não é considerada na regressão logística. Baseado em um cenário de tendência linear para a demanda agregada do uso do solo, simulações da mudança do uso do solo para a microbacia do Coxim, Mato Grosso do Sul, foram geradas, comparadas e analisadas usando o modelo CLUE-S sob os enfoques da regressão logística e espacial para o período de 2001 a 2011. Ambos os enfoques apresentaram simulações com muito boa concordância, medidas de acurácia global e Kappa altos, com o uso do solo para o ano de referência de 2004. A diferença entre os enfoques foi observada na distribuição espacial da simulação do uso do solo para o ano 2011, sendo o enfoque da regressão espacial que teve a simulação com menor discrepância com a demanda do uso do solo para esse ano.

Land-use and land-cover change in Atlantic Forest landscapes

The Atlantic Forest is one of the most threatened tropical biomes, with much of the standing forest in small (less than 50 ha), disturbed and isolated patches. The pattern of land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) which has resulted in this critical scenario has not yet been fully investigated. Here, we describe the LULCC in three Atlantic Forest fragmented landscapes (Sao Paulo, Brazil) between 1960-1980s and 1980-2000s. The three studied landscapes differ in the current proportion of forest cover, having 10%, 30% and 50% respectively. Between the 1960s and 1980s. forest cover of two landscapes was reduced while the forest cover in the third landscape increased slightly. The opposite trend was observed between the 1980s and 2000s: forest regeneration was greater than deforestation at the landscapes with 10% and 50% of forest cover and, as a consequence, forest cover increased. By contrast, the percentage of forest cover at the landscape with 30% of forest cover was drastically reduced between the 1980s and 2000s. LULCC deviated from a random trajectory, were not constant through time in two study landscapes and were not constant across space in a given time period. This landscape dynamism in single locations over small temporal scales is a key factor to be considered in models of LULCC to accurately simulate future changes for the Atlantic Forest. In general, forest patches became more isolated when deforestation was greater than forest regeneration and became more connected when forest regeneration was greater than deforestation. As a result of the dynamic experienced by the study landscapes, individual forest patches currently consist of a mosaic of different forest age classes which is likely to impact bio-diversity. Furthermore, landscape dynamics suggests the beginning of a forest transition in some Atlantic Forest regions, what could be of great importance for biodiversity conservation due to the potential effects of young secondary forests in reducing forest isolation and maintaining a significant amount of the original biodiversity. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Assessing land use and land cover change in tropical dry forest or Northern Chinandega, Nicaragus from 1985 to 2011

The objective of this study is to gain a quantitative understanding of land use and land cover change (LULCC) that have occurred in a rural Nicaraguan municipality by analyzing Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM) images. By comparing the potential extent of tropical dry forest (TDF) with Landsat 5 TM images, this study analyzes the loss of this forest type on a local level for the municipality of San Juan de Cinco Pinos (63.5 km2) in the Department of Chinandega. Change detection analysis shows where and how land use has changed from 1985 to the present. From 1985 to 2011, nearly 15% of the TDF in San Juan de Cinco Pinos was converted to other land uses. Of the 1434.2 ha of TDF that was present in 1985, 1223.64 ha remained in 2011. The deforestation is primarily a result of agricultural expansion and fuelwood extraction. If current rates of TDF deforestation continue, the municipality faces the prospect of losing its forest cover within the next few decades.